The relationship between HIV and fertility in the era of antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from 49 Demographic and Health Surveys.

OBJECTIVES: To describe regional differences in the relative fertility of HIV-positive vs. HIV-negative women and changes as antiretroviral treatment (ART) is scaled up, to improve estimates of predicted need for and coverage of prevention of mother-to-child transmission services at national and subnational levels. METHODS: We analysed 49 nationally representative household surveys in sub-Saharan Africa between 2003 and 2016 to estimate fertility rate ratios of HIV-positive and HIV-negative women by age using exponential regression and test for regional and urban/rural differences. We estimated the association between national ART coverage and the relationship between HIV and fertility. RESULTS: Significant regional differences exist in HIV and fertility relationships, with less HIV-associated subfertility in Southern Africa. Age patterns of relative fertility are similar. HIV impact on fertility is weaker in urban than rural areas. For women below age 30, regional and urban/rural differences are largely explained by differences in age at sexual debut. Higher levels of national ART coverage were associated with slight attenuation of the relationship between HIV and fertility. CONCLUSIONS: Regional differences in HIV-associated subfertility and urban-rural differences in age patterns of relative fertility should be accounted for when predicting need for and coverage of PMTCT services at national and subnational level. Although HIV impacts on fertility are somewhat reduced at higher levels of national ART coverage, differences in fertility between HIV positive and negative remain, and fertility of women on ART should not be assumed to be the same as HIV-negative women. There were few data in recent years, when ART has reached high levels, and this relationship should continue to be assessed as further evidence becomes available.

The Spectrum projection package: improvements in estimating incidence by age and sex, mother-to-child transmission, HIV progression in children and double orphans.

BACKGROUND: The Spectrum program is used to estimate key HIV indicators from the trends in incidence and prevalence estimated by the Estimation and Projection Package or the Workbook. These indicators include the number of people living with HIV, new infections, AIDS deaths, AIDS orphans, the number of adults and children needing treatment, the need for prevention of mother-to-child transmission and the impact of antiretroviral treatment on survival. The UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Models and Projections regularly reviews new data and information needs, and recommends updates to the methodology and assumptions used in Spectrum. METHODS: The latest update to Spectrum was used in the 2009 round of global estimates. This update contains new procedures for estimating: the age and sex distribution of adult incidence, new child infections occurring around delivery or through breastfeeding, the survival of children by timing of infection and the number of double orphans.

Influence of timing of sexual debut and first marriage on sexual behaviour in later life: findings from four survey rounds in the Kisesa cohort in northern Tanzania.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate quality of sexual debut and first marriage data, measure trends and study the association of risky sexual behaviour in youth with adult risk behaviour. METHODS: Reports on age at first sex (AFS) and age at first marriage (AFM) from the Kisesa cohort study, 1994-2004, were evaluated for consistency and used to describe trends in median age-at-event and time spent single but sexually active in different birth cohorts. The association of these variables with marital stability and numbers of partners at later ages was explored using statistical regression techniques. RESULTS: AFS and AFM were inconsistently reported by 32% and 33% of respondents, respectively, but there was no general tendency to report lower or higher ages at a later report date. In 10-year birth cohorts born between 1950-9 and 1980-9, male median AFS declined from 18.1 to 17.0 years and female median AFM rose from 16.2 to 16.6 years. Young people of both sexes currently spend longer sexually active but unmarried than previously. Early marriage is statistically associated with remarriage and polygamy; longer time between sexual debut and marriage is associated with higher numbers of partners at later stages of life. CONCLUSION: Inconsistent reporting of age-at-event introduces noise but does not bias estimates of population level indicators. Lengthening time spent single and sexually active suggests that men and women entering first marriage will have been exposed to increased numbers of non-marital partners. Successful youth interventions may also influence adult behaviour.

Trends in marriage and time spent single in sub-Saharan Africa: a comparative analysis of six population-based cohort studies and nine Demographic and Health Surveys.

OBJECTIVES: To describe trends in age at first sex (AFS), age at first marriage (AFM) and time spent single between events and to compare age-specific trends in marital status in six cohort studies. METHODS: Cohort data from Uganda, Tanzania, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Malawi and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from Uganda, Tanzania and Zimbabwe were analysed. Life table methods were used to calculate median AFS, AFM and time spent single. In each study, two surveys were chosen to compare marital status by age and identify changes over time. RESULTS: Median AFM was much higher in South Africa than in the other sites. Between the other populations there were considerable differences in median AFS and AFM (AFS 17-19 years for men and 16-19 years for women, AFM 21-24 years and 18-19 years, respectively, for the 1970-9 birth cohort). In all surveys, men reported a longer time spent single than women (median 4-7 years for men and 0-2 years for women). Median years spent single for women has increased, apart from in Manicaland. For men in Rakai it has decreased slightly over time but increased in Kisesa and Masaka. The DHS data showed similar trends to those in the cohort data. The age-specific proportion of married individuals has changed little over time. CONCLUSIONS: Median AFS, AFM and time spent single vary considerably among these populations. These three measures are underlying determinants of sexual risk and HIV infection, and they may partially explain the variation in HIV prevalence levels between these populations.

Reported number of sexual partners: comparison of data from four African longitudinal studies.

OBJECTIVE: To compare reported numbers of sexual partners in Eastern and Southern Africa. METHODS: Sexual partnership data from four longitudinal population-based surveys (1998-2007) in Zimbabwe, Uganda and South Africa were aggregated and overall proportions reporting more than one lifetime sexual partner calculated. A lexis-style table was used to illustrate the average lifetime sexual partners by site, sex, age group and birth cohort. The male-to-female ratio of mean number of partnerships in the last 12 months was calculated by site and survey. For each single year of age, the proportion sexually active in the past year, the mean number of partners in the past year and the proportion with more than one partner in the past year were calculated. RESULTS: Over 90% of men and women between 25 and 45 years of age reported being sexually active during the past 12 months, with most reporting at least one sexual partner. Overall, men reported higher numbers of lifetime sexual partners and partners in the last year than women. The male-to-female ratio of mean partnerships in the last year ranged from 1.41 to 1.86. In southern African cohorts, individuals in later birth cohorts reported fewer sexual partners and a lower proportion reported multiple partnerships compared with earlier birth cohorts, whereas these behavioural changes were not observed in the Ugandan cohorts. Across the four sites, reports of sexual partnerships followed a similar pattern for each sex. CONCLUSIONS: The longitudinal results show that reductions in the number of partnerships were more evident in southern Africa than in Uganda.

Non-response bias in estimates of HIV prevalence due to the mobility of absentees in national population-based surveys: a study of nine national surveys.

OBJECTIVES: To measure the bias in national estimates of HIV prevalence in population-based surveys caused by mobility and refusal to test. METHODS: Data from nine demographic and health surveys and AIDS indicator surveys were used. Non-responders were divided into three groups: (i) "refusals" who were interviewed but not tested; (ii) "refusals" who were present in the household but not interviewed or tested; and (iii) "absentees" who were absent from the household. Correction for HIV status was made for the non-responders using multiple imputation methods with logistic regression models based on a common set of household-level and individual-level sociodemographic and behavioural factors for those tested and stratified by mobility status. RESULTS: The non-response groups were corrected to have higher risks of HIV than those who participated in the HIV tests, although these were only detected to be statistically significant in some of the countries. In Lesotho, the corrected prevalence for the absent household members was significantly higher than for those who were present in the household. However, the adjusted prevalences differed by less than a percentage point from the prevalences observed among those who were tested, so the overall effects of non-response on national estimates of HIV prevalence are minimal. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that the mobility of absentees does not substantially bias estimates of HIV prevalence from population-based surveys. None the less, if levels of non-response are high or if non-responders differ greatly from those who participate in HIV testing with respect to HIV status, non-response could still bias national estimates of HIV prevalence.

Projecting the demographic impact of AIDS and the number of people in need of treatment: updates to the Spectrum projection package.

BACKGROUND: In the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) approach to HIV and AIDS estimates, estimates of adult prevalence produced by the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) or the Workbook are transferred to Spectrum to estimate the consequences of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, including the number of people living with HIV by age and sex, new infections, AIDS deaths, AIDS orphans, treatment needs, and the impact of treatment on survival. METHODS: The UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Models and Projections recommends updates to the methodology and assumptions based on the latest research findings and international policy and programme guidelines. The latest update to Spectrum has been used in the 2005 round of global estimates. RESULTS: Several new features have been added to Spectrum in the past two years. New patterns of the age distribution of prevalence over time are based on the latest survey data. A more detailed treatment of mother to child transmission of HIV is now based on information about current breastfeeding practices, treatment options offered to prevent mother to child transmission (PMTCT), infant feeding options, and the percentage or number of pregnant women accessing PMTCT services. A new section on child survival includes the effects of cotrimoxazole and ART on child survival. Projections can now be calibrated with national survey data. A new set of outputs is provided for all adults over the age of 15 in addition to the traditional 15-49 age group. New outputs are now available to show plausibility bounds and regional estimates for key indicators. CONCLUSIONS: The latest update to the Spectrum program is intended to incorporate the latest research findings and provide new outputs needed by national and international planners.

The I gene of bean: a dosage-dependent allele conferring extreme resistance, hypersensitive resistance, or spreading vascular necrosis in response to the potyvirus Bean common mosaic virus.

The resistance to the potyvirus Bean common mosaic virus (BCMV) conferred by the I allele in cultivars of Phaseolus vulgaris has been characterized as dominant, and it has been associated with both immunity and a systemic vascular necrosis in infected bean plants under field, as well as controlled, conditions. In our attempts to understand more fully the nature of the interaction between bean with the I resistance allele and the pathogen BCMV, we carefully varied both I allele dosage and temperature and observed the resulting, varying resistance responses. We report here that the I allele in the bean cultivars we studied is not dominant, but rather incompletely dominant, and that the system can be manipulated to show in plants a continuum of response to BCMV that ranges from immunity or extreme resistance, to hypersensitive resistance, to systemic phloem necrosis (and subsequent plant death). We propose that the particular phenotypic outcome in bean results from a quantitative interaction between viral pathogen and plant host that can be altered to favor one or the other by manipulating I allele dosage, temperature, viral pathogen, or plant cultivar.

The nucleotide sequence of the coat protein gene and 3' untranslated region of azuki bean mosaic potyvirus, a member of the bean common mosaic virus subgroup.

The relationship of azuki bean mosaic potyvirus (AzMV) to members of the bean common mosaic virus (BCMV) subgroup has been unclear. Degenerate oligonucleotide primers and the polymerase chain reaction were used to amplify and clone the coat protein (CP) gene and 3' untranslated region (UTR) of AzMV. The deduced amino acid sequence of the CP is 94% identical to that of dendrobium mosaic virus, establishing the two as strains of the same virus. While the CP amino acid identities between AzMV and potyviruses of the BCMV species are at or below 90%, the 91 to 94% identity between their UTRs suggests that AzMV could be considered a strain of BCMV. Interestingly, the grouping of potyviruses within the greater BCMV subgroup on a coat protein amino acid tree correlates with a grouping based on the response elicited on bean containing the I gene for resistance to BCMV.

The in vitro resistance of canine staphylococci to trimethoprim and sulphamethoxazole alone and in combination.

The in vitro resistance of 40 strains of Staphylococcus aureus isolated from dogs to trimethoprim, sulphamethoxazole and co-trimoxazole (SXT) was assessed using the disc diffusion technique on Diagnostic Sensitivity Test Agar (DSTA), DSTA with 5% lysed horse blood (DSTA + B), IsoSensitest Agar (ISTA) and Wellcotest Sensitivity Test Agar (WSTA). When sensitivity was based on a zone width of greater than or equal to 4 mm all 40 strains were sensitive to SXT on DSTA + B and ISTA, 39 were sensitive on WSTA while only 31 (77.5%) were sensitive on DSTA. A comparison of the results obtained for each strain for trimethoprim and sulphamethoxazole with those obtained with the Oxford strain of S. aureus and using a scheme for interpretation recommended by Garrod & O'Grady (1971) indicated that the proportion of strains classed as sensitive for therapeutic purposes was 5%, 55%, 47.5% and 15% respectively on DSTA, DSTA + B, ISTA and WSTA.