RESUMEN
PIP: This study is a first attempt at placing the analysis of fertility in a temporal dynamic framework in the case of a developing Asian economy like Thailand by binding the relationship between fertility and its determinants within a cointegrated system. In this respect, the focus of this paper is to shed light on whether a significant socioeconomic structural transition is a requirement to ensure initial fertility decline. The analysis is based on the application of the dynamic time series techniques: cointegration, vector-error correction modeling, variance decompositions, and impulse response functions. The findings tend to suggest that in the complex dynamic interactions, the importance of the conventional structural hypothesis as a significant factor in reducing fertility in the longer term cannot be denied. However, in the short to longer term, the results, although not fully supportive of any particular hypothesis, appear to be broadly consistent with the hypothesis highlighting the critical role of ideational or diffusion forces along the demographic factors in ensuring initial fertility decline than with the structural hypothesis emphasizing a significant socioeconomic structural change as a prerequisite for initial decline in fertility.^ieng
