Radiocesium in North Pacific coastal and offshore areas of Japan within several months after the Fukushima accident.

We measured activity concentrations of radiocesium (134Cs and 137Cs) in seawater samples collected in North Pacific coastal and offshore areas of Japan within several months after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP1) accident in March 2011, including archived seawater samples whose radiocesium concentrations were previously reported to be below detection limits. By merging 329 new data with published results, we succeeded in reconstructing the temporal changes in activity concentrations and inventories of FNPP1-derived radiocesium in the coastal and offshore areas within several months after the accident for the first time. 137Cs directly-discharged from the FNPP1 was transported eastward within the coastal area about 250 km from the FNPP1 during two months after the accident due to complex movements of coastal surface currents. The eastward speed was calculated to be about 5 cm s-1. Eastward transport of 137Cs to the offshore area more than 600 km away from the FNPP1 along the north flank of the Kuroshio Extension Current was faster (about 9 cm s-1) and probably more dominant in the eastward transport. The total inventory of directly-discharged 137Cs in early April 2011 was estimated to be 3-6 PBq approximately, which agrees with the smaller estimates in previous studies (2-6 PBq).

Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming.

The Indian Ocean dipole is a prominent mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability, affecting the lives of millions of people in Indian Ocean rim countries. In its positive phase, sea surface temperatures are lower than normal off the Sumatra-Java coast, but higher in the western tropical Indian Ocean. During the extreme positive-IOD (pIOD) events of 1961, 1994 and 1997, the eastern cooling strengthened and extended westward along the equatorial Indian Ocean through strong reversal of both the mean westerly winds and the associated eastward-flowing upper ocean currents. This created anomalously dry conditions from the eastern to the central Indian Ocean along the Equator and atmospheric convergence farther west, leading to catastrophic floods in eastern tropical African countries but devastating droughts in eastern Indian Ocean rim countries. Despite these serious consequences, the response of pIOD events to greenhouse warming is unknown. Here, using an ensemble of climate models forced by a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we project that the frequency of extreme pIOD events will increase by almost a factor of three, from one event every 17.3 years over the twentieth century to one event every 6.3 years over the twenty-first century. We find that a mean state change--with weakening of both equatorial westerly winds and eastward oceanic currents in association with a faster warming in the western than the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean--facilitates more frequent occurrences of wind and oceanic current reversal. This leads to more frequent extreme pIOD events, suggesting an increasing frequency of extreme climate and weather events in regions affected by the pIOD.

Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change.

It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east-west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific's could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries.