Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections.

Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state-of-the-art knowledge in an internally self-consistent modeling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain-specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low-emissions SSP1-1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850-1900, using an observationally based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850-1900 and 1995-2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above preindustrial in the long-term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections.

The collaborative care practice model in the long-term care of individuals with bipolar disorder: a case study.

Effective therapies for the long-term care of individuals with bipolar disorder feature medication management and an interactional component between patients and care providers. In this paper, we discuss the effectiveness of applying a collaborative practice model to the long-term care of individuals with bipolar disorder who receive outpatient treatment. The model emphasizes that patients are co-managers of their illness and successful outcomes are enhanced within a supportive social environment. Key elements include joint patient-provider treatment planning and decision making. Several controlled trials have demonstrated that when the model is adopted, significant improvements in clinical and functional outcomes can be achieved. The paper concludes with a case study, which illustrates that the model can be successfully implemented in a clinical setting. Given that the clinical and research evidence demonstrates the effectiveness of the model, we suggest that advanced practice psychiatric nurses apply key elements of the collaborative practice model in their work with clients with bipolar disorder.

Spinal anaesthesia--early Australian experience.

Australia in 1902 was a fledgling colony in its second year of Federation with a population of around 3.7 million. European settlement had been largely confined to the coastal margins of this enormous land mass, although some bold adventurers in search of gold and farmland had struggled their way into the interior Horsham, situated 300 km northwest of Melbourne in the state of Victoria, was founded in June 1849. By 1902 the town, with a population of around 2500, had grown to boast a hospital, two doctors, a pharmacist and a dentist. It was at the Horsham Hospital on January 7, 1902 that Dr Robert Ritchie performed Australia's first recorded spinal anaesthetic. Ritchie performed a lumbar puncture at the L3-4 level, injected 2 ml of 2% cocaine solution and waited for a total of 20 minutes before realising that the sensation the patient was feeling when he pinched him was pressure, not pain. The 78-year-old man with a gangrenous right leg, prostatic obstruction and congestive cardiac failure was laid supine, and had his right leg amputated through the thigh while being administered brandy and water Strychnine injections were administered four hourly postoperatively. The adoption of the technique of spinal anaesthesia spread quickly in Australia despite communication difficulties at that time.

Onset and offset pharmacodynamics of propofol.

Propofol whole blood and plasma concentrations at offset of hypnosis in eighteen patients were inversely related to patient age and body fat. The relationship between propofol concentrations and body fat is derived from the relationship between age and body fat and age was the single independent predictor of concentrations at offset of propofol hypnosis.

Platelet FcgammaRIIA His131Arg polymorphism and platelet function: antibodies to platelet-bound fibrinogen induce platelet activation.

The His131Arg polymorphism of platelet FcgammaRIIA affects the binding affinity of certain IgG subclasses. The Arg131 allele has been associated with (auto)immune thrombocytopenia and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia in some studies. Because FcgammaRIIA can transmit platelet activation signals, we studied platelet responsiveness from 73 healthy donors to determine if this polymorphism modulated platelet function. Platelet function was studied by agonist and shear-induced activation, and standard aggregation. FcgammaRIIA was genotyped by allele-specific PCR. Compared with His131, the Arg131 allele was associated with significantly greater binding of activation-dependent antibodies. This effect was most prominent for the receptor-induced binding site (RIBS) antibodies F26 (P < 0.0001) and RIBS1 (P = 0.0057), and the ligand-induced binding site antibody LIBS1 (P = 0.0367). Unexpectedly, Arg131-positive platelets did not show greater fibrinogen binding, platelet aggregation or shear-induced platelet activation. We considered whether enhanced Fc binding and FcgammaRIIA cross-linking were responsible for those discrepancies. The increased binding of the two RIBS antibodies to the Arg131 isoform was abolished by blocking FcgammaRIIA, and the FcgammaRIIA genotype effect on F26 IgG binding was lost when F26 F(ab')2 fragments were used. Furthermore, intact F26 and RIBS1 IgG directly and specifically induced P-selectin expression, and this effect was greatest in Arg131-positive platelets. We concluded that (a) the His131Arg polymorphism of FcgammaRIIA does not affect intrinsic platelet reactivity; (b) RIBS antibodies are able to cross-link FcgammaRIIA and activate platelets, and this activation has a modest effect on Arg131 platelets; and (c) flow cytometric based platelet assays may need to compensate for this FcgammaRIIA His131Arg effect on platelet activation.

Imagery rehearsal therapy for chronic nightmares in sexual assault survivors with posttraumatic stress disorder: a randomized controlled trial.

CONTEXT: Chronic nightmares occur frequently in patients with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) but are not usually a primary target of treatment. OBJECTIVE: To determine if treating chronic nightmares with imagery rehearsal therapy (IRT) reduces the frequency of disturbing dreams, improves sleep quality, and decreases PTSD symptom severity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Randomized controlled trial conducted from 1995 to 1999 among 168 women in New Mexico; 95% had moderate-to-severe PTSD, 97% had experienced rape or other sexual assault, 77% reported life-threatening sexual assault, and 58% reported repeated exposure to sexual abuse in childhood or adolescence. INTERVENTION: Participants were randomized to receive treatment (n = 88) or to the wait-list control group (n = 80). The treatment group received IRT in 3 sessions; controls received no additional intervention, but continued any ongoing treatment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Scores on the Nightmare Frequency Questionnaire (NFQ), Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), PTSD Symptom Scale (PSS), and Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale (CAPS) at 3- and 6-month follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 114 participants completed follow-up at 3 and/or 6 months. Comparing baseline to follow-up (n = 97-114), treatment significantly reduced nights per week with nightmares (Cohen d = 1.24; P<.001) and number of nightmares per week (Cohen d = 0.85; P<.001) on the NFQ and improved sleep (on the PSQI, Cohen d = 0.67; P<.001) and PTSD symptoms (on the PSS, Cohen d = 1.00; P<.001 and on the CAPS, Cohen d = 1.53; P<.001). Control participants showed small, nonsignificant improvements for the same measures (mean Cohen d = 0.21). In a 3-point analysis (n = 66-77), improvements occurred in the treatment group at 3-month follow-up (treatment vs control group, Cohen d = 1.15 vs 0.07 for nights per week with nightmares; 0.95 vs -0.06 for nightmares per week; 0.77 vs 0.31 on the PSQI, and 1.06 vs 0.31 on the PSS) and were sustained without further intervention or contact between 3 and 6 months. An intent-to-treat analysis (n = 168) confirmed significant differences between treatment and control groups for nightmares, sleep, and PTSD (all P<.02) with moderate effect sizes for treatment (mean Cohen d = 0.60) and small effect sizes for controls (mean Cohen d = 0.14). Posttraumatic stress symptoms decreased by at least 1 level of clinical severity in 65% of the treatment group compared with symptoms worsening or not changing in 69% of controls (chi(2)(1) = 12.80; P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: Imagery rehearsal therapy is a brief, well-tolerated treatment that appears to decrease chronic nightmares, improve sleep quality, and decrease PTSD symptom severity.

Treatment of chronic nightmares in adjudicated adolescent girls in a residential facility.

PURPOSE: To evaluate imagery rehearsal therapy for the treatment of chronic nightmares in a sample of adolescent girls. METHODS: Adolescent girls ranging in age from 13 to 18 years were recruited from the Wyoming Girls School in Sheridan, Wyoming (treatment group, n = 9; control group, n = 10). These girls had previously suffered a high prevalence of unwanted sexual experiences in childhood and adolescence, and thus many suffered from nightmares, sleep complaints, and posttraumatic stress symptoms. Imagery rehearsal therapy was provided in a 1-day (6-h) workshop. Imagery rehearsal consists of three steps, all of which are performed in the waking state: (a) select a nightmare, (b) "change the nightmare any way you wish," and (c) rehearse the images of the new version ("new dream") 5 to 20 min each day. Control participants received no intervention. RESULTS: At baseline, these girls had been suffering from nightmares, on average, for 4.5 years, and they reported experiencing 20 nightmares per month, which occurred at a frequency of at least one bad dream every other night. At 3 months, self-reported, retrospectively assessed nightmare frequency measured in nights per month decreased 57% (p =.01, d = 1.4) and measured in nightmares per month decreased 71% (p =.01, d = 1.7) in the treatment group, compared with no significant changes in the control group. No significant changes were noted for sleep and posttraumatic stress disorder measures in either group. CONCLUSION: Imagery rehearsal therapy was an effective treatment option for chronic nightmares in this adjudicated adolescent population.

Risk analysis in patients bridged to transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to predict mortality in bridge to cardiac transplant patients have concentrated on preventricular assist device (VAD) status. To more fully identify factors influencing survival to transplant, we reviewed the preoperative and postoperative VAD courses of 105 bridge to transplant patients. METHODS: Sixty-four parameters (34 pre-VAD, 30 post-VAD), including hemodynamics, complications, and evaluations of major organ function were examined and analyzed. RESULTS: Thirty-three patients (31%) died on VADs and 72 were transplanted. There were two posttransplant operative deaths (3%). By univariate analysis 23 of 64 factors were significant. These 23 factors were entered into a stepwise logistic regression analysis to identify predictors of survival to transplant. Four factors, including pre-VAD intubation (p < 0.005), cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time during VAD insertion (p < 0.0001), mean pulmonary artery pressure (first postoperative day after VAD) (p < 0.0002), and highest post-VAD creatinine (p < 0.01) were independent predictors of transplantation. CONCLUSIONS: Other than the need for intubation, pre-VAD variables were of little value in predicting survival to transplant. Problems during VAD insertion (long CPB time) and post-VAD renal insufficiency were independent predictors. Severe complications that developed during the interval of VAD support, including cerebrovascular accident, bleeding and infection, were surprisingly not predictors for transplantation.

Multicenter experience with the thoratec ventricular assist device in children and adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Patient size is 1 determinant in selecting a mechanical circulatory support device. The current pulsatile ventricular assist devices (VADs) were designed primarily for average-sized adults. The flexibility of the Thoratec VAD, however, has encouraged physicians to use it in a significant number of intermediate-sized older children and adolescents. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study in 58 children and adolescents <18 years (41 boys, 17 girls) who had been supported with the Thoratec VAD in 27 centers worldwide as of December 1999. Mean patient age was 13.8 years (range, 7 to 17 years), and mean patient weight and body surface area were 51.6 kg (range, 17 to 93 kg) and 1.5 m(2) (range, 0.7 to 2.1 m(2)), respectively. RESULTS: Thirty-five patients (60%) survived to transplantation and 6 (10%) to recovery of the native heart, respectively; 38 were discharged from the hospital (66%). In the transplanted group, post-transplantation survival was 97%. Patient age and size were not associated with significantly increased risk for death or adverse events. Fifteen patients (27%) had 18 neurologic events during support, and 6 of these were fatal. Left atrial cannulation proved a risk factor for neurologic complications. CONCLUSIONS: The Thoratec VAD has successfully been used in a large number of children and adolescents with similar morbidity and mortality results as with adults. The risk of neurologic complications may be increased, particularly in patients cannulated in the left atria.

Postpartum coronary artery dissection complicated by heparin-induced thrombocytopenia and thrombosis.

A 32-year-old woman presented with an acute anterior-lateral myocardial infarction 7 days postpartum. Coronary angiography revealed an occlusive left main coronary artery dissection. After coronary artery bypass surgery the patient's cardiac function improved and stabilized. Thrombocytopenia and a femoral artery thrombosis after 9 days of heparin exposure marked the development of heparin-induced thrombocytopenia and thrombosis that was successfully managed with argatroban, a direct thrombin inhibitor anticoagulant.

Combined cardio-renal transplantation (CCRT) from the same donor: report of two cases and review of the literature.

Two patients with successful combined cardio-renal transplantation (CCRT) using allografts from the same donor are reported. Both patients underwent staged procedure with hearts being transplanted first followed by kidneys. One patient suffered simultaneous acute rejection of both allografts, indeed a very rare event, which was successfully treated with pulse steroids. Because of the successful patient and graft outcomes, we propose that staged CCRT offers a reasonable therapeutic option for patients with co-existing, irreversible cardiorenal failure.

Chronic subdural hematoma in children.

Chronic subdural hematoma (CSH) is generally a disease affecting the elderly and infants. In infants, the process is particularly confusing and frequently misunderstood. In the pediatric population, CSH is just one of a group of sometimes related conditions known as extracerebral fluid collections. In the past, extracerebral fluid collections, in general, and CSHs, in particular, have been inaccurately or incompletely described. Modern neuroimaging techniques, however, have greatly advanced our understanding of these conditions. Surprisingly little literature exists on the subject, and publications before the advent of modern computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging should be interpreted with caution.

Transfer of patients receiving advanced mechanical circulatory support.

OBJECTIVE: Improving results with ventricular assist devices have led to their wider clinical application. Centers can stabilize, support, and wean or transfer patients to regional transplant centers. METHODS: Prospectively collected data were reviewed to evaluate the clinical results of patients transferred to our institution while receiving advanced mechanical circulatory support. RESULTS: Since 1993, 16 patients were accepted while receiving support with either extracorporeal membrane oxygenation or a ventricular assist device. The 10 male and 6 female patients ranged in age from 9 to 60 years (mean, 42.1 years). Thirteen had had cardiac surgical procedures, two had acute myocardial infarctions, and one had myocarditis. The distance transported ranged from 0.2 to 309 miles (mean, 132 miles). Twelve patients were transferred by ground, and 4 were transported by air. Seven patients were originally supported with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, 6 with centrifugal pumps, and 3 with ABIOMED ventricular assist devices (ABIOMED, Inc, Danvers, Mass). Two patients had clinical complications during transfer, and one had a cerebrovascular accident, recovered, was weaned, and survived. A second patient had hemodynamic deterioration. There were no technical complications associated with transport. Six patients were left on the original support device; 3 of the 6 were weaned and survived, and 3 died during support. The 10 remaining patients were switched to other ventricular assist devices: 9 patients to Thoratec devices (Thoratec Laboratories, Pleasanton, Calif) and 1 patient to a Novacor device (Baxter Healthcare Corp, Novacor Division, Oakland, Calif). Six of the 10 patients underwent transplantation and survived. Four patients died while being supported by the devices. Nine patients were discharged, with 1 late death at 29 months. Eight patients are alive 4 to 65 months after discharge. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that patients receiving advanced support can be moved between clinical centers with acceptable risks. Because 33% of the survivors were weaned, transplantation is not required for survival.

A controlled study of imagery rehearsal for chronic nightmares in sexual assault survivors with PTSD: a preliminary report.

Imagery-rehearsal therapy for chronic nightmares was assessed in a randomized, controlled study of sexual assault survivors with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Nightmares, sleep quality, and PTSD were assessed at baseline for 169 women, who were randomized into two groups: treatment (n = 87) and wait-list control (n = 82). Treatment consisted of two 3-hr sessions and one 1-hr session conducted over 5 weeks. Of 169 participants, 91 women (Treatment, n = 43, Control, n = 48) completed a 3-month follow-up and 78 did not. At follow-up, nightmare frequency and PTSD severity decreased and sleep quality improved in the treatment group with small to minimal changes in the control group. Treatment effects were moderate to high (Cohen's d ranged from 0.57 to 1.26). Notwithstanding the large dropout rate, imagery-rehearsal therapy is an effective treatment for chronic nightmares in sexual assault survivors with PTSD and is associated with improvement in sleep quality and decreases in PTSD severity.

Sterilization and disinfection in general practice in Northern Ireland.

In view of the recent trend towards more minor surgery being carried out in general practice we decided to conduct a postal survey to assess the level of knowledge of sterilization and disinfection and the use of benchtop sterilizers in general practice in Northern Ireland. The survey, of all 366 practices in the Province, was carried out in January/March 1998. One hundred and eleven (30%) completed questionnaires were returned. All practices performed at least one of a range of procedures requiring sterilization or disinfection, e.g., minor surgery 95%, cervical smear taking 98%, syringing of ears 98%. Only 76% of practices had a benchtop sterilizer and 39% did not have access to a sterile supply department (SSD); 32% of the latter had no desire to utilize such a service. Only 25% and 34% correctly identified the Medical Devices Agency (MDA) definitions of sterilization and disinfection respectively. The MDA Device Bulletin on benchtop sterilizers had been read by only 26% of respondents. There was an 86% interest in attending a workshop on sterilization and disinfection. The concepts and practice of sterilization and disinfection appear not to be clearly understood. We conclude that resources must be identified to provide appropriate education in this important area for primary care staff.

Modified neck dissection for metastatic nonseminomatous testicular carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the role of neck dissection in the treatment of metastatic stage 3 nonseminomatous germ-cell tumors (NSGCTs) of testicular origin. METHOD: A retrospective review was made of 45 patients with metastatic NSGCT who underwent 48 unilateral and 3 bilateral neck dissections. Only level III-VI nodes were dissected, often with concomitant or staged mediastinal dissection, thoracotomy, and/or retroperitoneal node dissection. Occasionally, resection of the clavicle, jugular vein, or subclavian artery, or a combination of these, was required to eradicate the disease. RESULTS: There were only four instances of recurrence in dissected necks. There was one case of dedifferentiation of mature teratoma to adenocarcinoma Patients who were followed for a mean period of 32 months had a disease-free survival of 72%. Prognosis for patients with stage 3 disease but negative preoperative tumor markers (alpha-fetoprotein and human chorionic gonadotropin) was excellent, with 97% of these patients having no evidence of disease at follow-up. Factors having a negative impact on survival included positive tumor markers, elements of germ-cell cancer in excised nodes, and a neck mass that represents late relapse of disease. CONCLUSION: Modified neck dissection has a demonstrated role in the treatment of metastatic NSGCT. It prevents reversion of mature teratoma to malignant germ cell tumor with minimal morbidity. Aggressive resection of disease is indicated, often in conjunction with thoracic surgery, to eradicate disease extending into the chest. There is an excellent prognosis in patients with negative preoperative serologic tumor markers.

Clinical experience with 111 thoratec ventricular assist devices.

BACKGROUND: Ventricular assist devices (VADs) have gained wider acceptance due to refinements in patient selection and management and device availability. METHODS: To evaluate early and late results, we reviewed our first 111 patients with the Thoratec VAD. RESULTS: Forty-four patients were supported for myocardial recovery. The mean age in the recovery group was 51.9 years. There were 18 left VADs (LVADs), 17 biventricular VADs (BVADs), and nine right VADs (RVADs). Complications included bleeding in 20 patients (45%) and device-related infection in 1 patient (2%). Nineteen were weaned from the VAD, with 12 survivors. Sixty-seven patients were supported as a bridge to cardiac transplantation. The mean age was 41.5 years. There were 39 LVADs and 28 BVADs. Complications included bleeding in 21 patients (31%) and device-related infection in 12 (18%). Three patients were weaned and 39 patients were transplanted from the assist device, for a total of 42 bridge survivors. Device-related thromboembolism occurred in 9 patients (8.1%), 7 of whom were bridge to transplantation. The duration of VAD support ranged from 0.1 to 27 days (mean 4.5 days) in the recovery group and 0.2 to 184 days (mean 40.7 days) in the bridge to transplantation group. The 10-year actuarial survival was 16% for the recovery group, 22%, for the bridge group, and 33% for transplanted patients. CONCLUSIONS: Despite advances, VAD support remains associated with significant morbidity and operative mortality.