Historical carbon emissions and uptake from the agricultural frontier of the Brazilian Amazon.

Tropical ecosystems play a large and complex role in the global carbon cycle. Clearing of natural ecosystems for agriculture leads to large pulses of CO2 to the atmosphere from terrestrial biomass. Concurrently, the remaining intact ecosystems, especially tropical forests, may be sequestering a large amount of carbon from the atmosphere in response to global environmental changes including climate changes and an increase in atmospheric CO2. Here we use an approach that integrates census-based historical land use reconstructions, remote-sensing-based contemporary land use change analyses, and simulation modeling of terrestrial biogeochemistry to estimate the net carbon balance over the period 1901-2006 for the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, which is one of the most rapidly changing agricultural frontiers in the world. By the end of this period, we estimate that of the state's 925 225 km2, 221 092 km2 have been converted to pastures and 89 533 km2 have been converted to croplands, with forest-to-pasture conversions being the dominant land use trajectory but with recent transitions to croplands increasing rapidly in the last decade. These conversions have led to a cumulative release of 4.8 Pg C to the atmosphere, with 80% from forest clearing and 20% from the clearing of cerrado. Over the same period, we estimate that the residual undisturbed ecosystems accumulated 0.3 Pg C in response to CO2 fertilization. Therefore, the net emissions of carbon from Mato Grosso over this period were 4.5 Pg C. Net carbon emissions from Mato Grosso since 2000 averaged 146 Tg C/yr, on the order of Brazil's fossil fuel emissions during this period. These emissions were associated with the expansion of croplands to grow soybeans. While alternative management regimes in croplands, including tillage, fertilization, and cropping patterns promote carbon storage in ecosystems, they remain a small portion of the net carbon balance for the region. This detailed accounting of a region's carbon balance is the type of foundation analysis needed by the new United Nations Collaborative Programmme for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).

Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon.

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006-2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO(2)-equivalents (CO(2)-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24-49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2-0.4 Pg CO(2)-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso.

Net nitrogen mineralization and net nitrification rates in soils following deforestation for pasture across the southwestern Brazilian Amazon Basin landscape.

Previous studies of the effect of tropical forest conversion to cattle pasture on soil N dynamics showed that rates of net N mineralization and net nitrification were lower in pastures compared with the original forest. In this study, we sought to determine the generality of these patterns by examining soil inorganic N concentrations, net mineralization and nitrification rates in 6 forests and 11 pastures 3 years old or older on ultisols and oxisols that encompassed a wide variety of soil textures and spanned a 700-km geographical range in the southwestern Brazilian Amazon Basin state of Rondônia. We sampled each site during October-November and April-May. Forest soils had higher extractable NO3--N and total inorganic N concentrations than pasture soils, but substantial NO3--N occurred in both forest and pasture soils. Rates of net N mineralization and net nitrification were higher in forest soils. Greater concentrations of soil organic matter in finer textured soils were associated with greater rates of net N mineralization and net nitrification, but this relationship was true only under native forest vegetation; rates were uniformly low in pastures, regardless of soil type or texture. Net N mineralization and net nitrification rates per unit of total soil organic matter showed no pattern across the different forest sites, suggesting that controls of net N mineralization may be broadly similar across a wide range of soil types. Similar reductions in rates of net N transformations in pastures 3 years old or older across a range of textures on these soils suggest that changes to soil N cycling caused by deforestation for pasture may be Basin-wide in extent. Lower net N mineralization and net nitrification rates in established pastures suggest that annual N losses from largely deforested landscapes may be lower than losses from the original forest. Total ecosystem N losses since deforestation are likely to depend on the balance between lower N loss rates from established pastures and the magnitude and duration of N losses that occur in the years immediately following forest clearing.