Assessing vulnerability for future Zika virus outbreaks using seroprevalence data and environmental suitability maps.

The 2015-17 Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas subsided faster than expected and evolving population immunity was postulated to be the main reason. Herd immunization is suggested to occur around 60-70% seroprevalence, depending on demographic density and climate suitability. However, herd immunity was only documented for a few cities in South America, meaning a substantial portion of the population might still be vulnerable to a future Zika virus outbreak. The aim of our study was to determine the vulnerability of populations to ZIKV by comparing the environmental suitability of ZIKV transmission to the observed seroprevalence, based on published studies. Using a systematic search, we collected seroprevalence and geospatial data for 119 unique locations from 37 studies. Extracting the environmental suitability at each location and converting to a hypothetical expected seroprevalence, we were able to determine the discrepancy between observed and expected. This discrepancy is an indicator of vulnerability and divided into three categories: high risk, low risk, and very low risk. The vulnerability was used to evaluate the level of risk that each location still has for a ZIKV outbreak to occur. Of the 119 unique locations, 69 locations (58%) fell within the high risk category, 47 locations (39%) fell within the low risk category, and 3 locations (3%) fell within the very low risk category. The considerable heterogeneity between environmental suitability and seroprevalence potentially leaves a large population vulnerable to future infection. Vulnerability seems to be especially pronounced at the fringes of the environmental suitability for ZIKV (e.g. Sao Paulo, Brazil). The discrepancies between observed and expected seroprevalence raise the question: "why did the ZIKV epidemic stop with large populations unaffected?". This lack of understanding also highlights that future ZIKV outbreaks currently cannot be predicted with confidence.

The Brazilian COVID-19 vaccination campaign: a modelling analysis of sociodemographic factors on uptake.

OBJECTIVE: Dose shortages delayed access to COVID-19 vaccination. We aim to characterise inequality in two-dose vaccination by sociodemographic group across Brazil. DESIGN: This is a cross-sectional study. SETTING: We used data retrieved from the Brazilian Ministry of Health databases published between 17 January 2021 and 6 September 2021. METHODS: We assessed geographical inequalities in full vaccination coverage and dose by age, sex, race and socioeconomic status. We developed a Campaign Optimality Index to characterise inequality in vaccination access due to premature vaccination towards younger populations before older and vulnerable populations were fully vaccinated. Generalised linear regression was used to investigate the risk of death and hospitalisation by age group, socioeconomic status and vaccination coverage. RESULTS: Vaccination coverage is higher in the wealthier South and Southeast. Men, people of colour and low-income groups were more likely to be only partially vaccinated due to missing or delaying a second dose. Vaccination started prematurely for age groups under 50 years which may have hindered uptake in older age groups. Vaccination coverage was associated with a lower risk of death, especially in older age groups (ORs 9.7 to 29.0, 95% CI 9. 4 to 29.9). Risk of hospitalisation was greater in areas with higher vaccination rates due to higher access to care and reporting. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination inequality persists between states, age and demographic groups despite increasing uptake. The association between hospitalisation rates and vaccination is attributed to preferential delivery to areas of greater transmission and access to healthcare.

Mapping environmental suitability of Haemagogus and Sabethes spp. mosquitoes to understand sylvatic transmission risk of yellow fever virus in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Yellow fever (YF) is an arboviral disease which is endemic to Brazil due to a sylvatic transmission cycle maintained by infected mosquito vectors, non-human primate (NHP) hosts, and humans. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, recent sporadic YF epidemics have underscored concerns about sylvatic vector surveillance, as very little is known about their spatial distribution. Here, we model and map the environmental suitability of YF's main vectors in Brazil, Haemagogus spp. and Sabethes spp., and use human population and NHP data to identify locations prone to transmission and spillover risk. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compiled a comprehensive set of occurrence records on Hg. janthinomys, Hg. leucocelaenus, and Sabethes spp. from 1991-2019 using primary and secondary data sources. Linking these data with selected environmental and land-cover variables, we adopted a stacked regression ensemble modelling approach (elastic-net regularized GLM, extreme gradient boosted regression trees, and random forest) to predict the environmental suitability of these species across Brazil at a 1 km x 1 km resolution. We show that while suitability for each species varies spatially, high suitability for all species was predicted in the Southeastern region where recent outbreaks have occurred. By integrating data on NHP host reservoirs and human populations, our risk maps further highlight municipalities within the region that are prone to transmission and spillover. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our maps of sylvatic vector suitability can help elucidate potential locations of sylvatic reservoirs and be used as a tool to help mitigate risk of future YF outbreaks and assist in vector surveillance. Furthermore, at-risk regions identified from our work could help disease control and elucidate gaps in vaccination coverage and NHP host surveillance.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on people with epilepsy: Findings from the Brazilian arm of the COV-E study.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on people and healthcare services. The disruption to chronic illnesses, such as epilepsy, may relate to several factors ranging from direct infection to secondary effects from healthcare reorganization and social distancing measures. OBJECTIVES: As part of the COVID-19 and Epilepsy (COV-E) global study, we ascertained the effects of COVID-19 on people with epilepsy in Brazil, based on their perspectives and those of their caregivers. We also evaluated the impact of COVID-19 on the care delivered to people with epilepsy by healthcare workers. METHODS: We designed separate online surveys for people with epilepsy and their caregivers. A further survey for healthcare workers contained additional assessments of changes to working patterns, productivity, and concerns for those with epilepsy under their care. The Brazilian arm of COV-E initially collected data from May to November 2020 during the country's first wave. We also examined national data to identify the Brazilian states with the highest COVID-19 incidence and related mortality. Lastly, we applied this geographic grouping to our data to explore whether local disease burden played a direct role in difficulties faced by people with epilepsy. RESULTS: Two hundred and forty-one people returned the survey, 20% were individuals with epilepsy (n = 48); 22% were caregivers (n = 53), and 58% were healthcare workers (n = 140). Just under half (43%) of people with epilepsy reported health changes during the pandemic, including worsening seizure control, with specific issues related to stress and impaired mental health. Of respondents prescribed antiseizure medication, 11% reported difficulty taking medication on time due to problems acquiring prescriptions and delayed or canceled medical appointments. Only a small proportion of respondents reported discussing significant epilepsy-related risks in the previous 12 months. Analysis of national COVID-19 data showed a higher disease burden in the states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro compared to Brazil as a whole. There were, however, no geographic differences observed in survey responses despite variability in the incidence of COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that Brazilians with epilepsy have been adversely affected by COVID-19 by factors beyond infection or mortality. Mental health issues and the importance of optimal communication are critical during these difficult times. Healthcare services need to find nuanced approaches and learn from shared international experiences to provide optimal care for people with epilepsy as the direct burden of COVID-19 improves in some countries. In contrast, others face resurgent waves of the pandemic.

Higher risk of death from COVID-19 in low-income and non-White populations of São Paulo, Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: Little evidence exists on the differential health effects of COVID-19 on disadvantaged population groups. Here we characterise the differential risk of hospitalisation and death in São Paulo state, Brazil, and show how vulnerability to COVID-19 is shaped by socioeconomic inequalities. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study using hospitalised severe acute respiratory infections notified from March to August 2020 in the Sistema de Monitoramento Inteligente de São Paulo database. We examined the risk of hospitalisation and death by race and socioeconomic status using multiple data sets for individual-level and spatiotemporal analyses. We explained these inequalities according to differences in daily mobility from mobile phone data, teleworking behaviour and comorbidities. RESULTS: Throughout the study period, patients living in the 40% poorest areas were more likely to die when compared with patients living in the 5% wealthiest areas (OR: 1.60, 95% CI 1.48 to 1.74) and were more likely to be hospitalised between April and July 2020 (OR: 1.08, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.12). Black and Pardo individuals were more likely to be hospitalised when compared with White individuals (OR: 1.41, 95% CI 1.37 to 1.46; OR: 1.26, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.28, respectively), and were more likely to die (OR: 1.13, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.19; 1.07, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.10, respectively) between April and July 2020. Once hospitalised, patients treated in public hospitals were more likely to die than patients in private hospitals (OR: 1.40%, 95% CI 1.34% to 1.46%). Black individuals and those with low education attainment were more likely to have one or more comorbidities, respectively (OR: 1.29, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.39; 1.36, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.45). CONCLUSIONS: Low-income and Black and Pardo communities are more likely to die with COVID-19. This is associated with differential access to quality healthcare, ability to self-isolate and the higher prevalence of comorbidities.

Country-specific HPV-related genital disease among men residing in Brazil, Mexico and The United States: The HIM study.

The purpose of this study was to assess whether the incidence of histopathologically confirmed condyloma and penile intraepithelial neoplasia (PeIN) and rates of genital HPV infection progression to these lesions differs by country (Brazil, Mexico and the U.S.). At each visit, lesions were biopsied and were categorized by pathologic diagnoses. The Linear Array genotyping method was used to identify HPV genotypes from genital swabs, while the INNO-LiPA HPV Genotyping Extra method was used for tissue specimens. Age-specific analyses were conducted for lesion incidence by country, with Kaplan-Meier estimation of cumulative incidence. The proportion of HPV infections that progressed to condyloma and PeIN, the median time to lesion development and the incidence rates were estimated by country. When comparing demographic and sexual characteristics across the three countries, sexual orientation (p = 0.008) and lifetime number of female sexual partners (p < 0.0001) were differentially associated with lesion incidence in the three countries. Condyloma incidence in Brazil and the U.S. decreased with age, while incidence remained constant across the lifespan in Mexico. There were no differences by country and age for PeIN incidence. HPV types 6 and 11 were the most common types to progress to condyloma and HPV types 16, 6 and 11 were the most common types to progress to PeIN in all three countries. The continuous risk of condyloma and PeIN across all age groups and countries in this study emphasizes the need to ensure that strong HPV immunity, such as that obtained through vaccination, is maintained across the lifespan of men.

Zika virus in the Americas: Early epidemiological and genetic findings.

Brazil has experienced an unprecedented epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), with ~30,000 cases reported to date. ZIKV was first detected in Brazil in May 2015, and cases of microcephaly potentially associated with ZIKV infection were identified in November 2015. We performed next-generation sequencing to generate seven Brazilian ZIKV genomes sampled from four self-limited cases, one blood donor, one fatal adult case, and one newborn with microcephaly and congenital malformations. Results of phylogenetic and molecular clock analyses show a single introduction of ZIKV into the Americas, which we estimated to have occurred between May and December 2013, more than 12 months before the detection of ZIKV in Brazil. The estimated date of origin coincides with an increase in air passengers to Brazil from ZIKV-endemic areas, as well as with reported outbreaks in the Pacific Islands. ZIKV genomes from Brazil are phylogenetically interspersed with those from other South American and Caribbean countries. Mapping mutations onto existing structural models revealed the context of viral amino acid changes present in the outbreak lineage; however, no shared amino acid changes were found among the three currently available virus genomes from microcephaly cases. Municipality-level incidence data indicate that reports of suspected microcephaly in Brazil best correlate with ZIKV incidence around week 17 of pregnancy, although this correlation does not demonstrate causation. Our genetic description and analysis of ZIKV isolates in Brazil provide a baseline for future studies of the evolution and molecular epidemiology of this emerging virus in the Americas.

Genital Human Papillomavirus Infection Progression to External Genital Lesions: The HIM Study.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) causes two types of external genital lesions (EGLs) in men: genital warts (condyloma) and penile intraepithelial neoplasia (PeIN). OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to describe genital HPV progression to a histopathologically confirmed HPV-related EGL. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A prospective analysis nested within the HPV Infection in Men (HIM) study was conducted among 3033 men. At each visit, visually distinct EGLs were biopsied; the biopsy specimens were subjected to pathologic evaluation and categorized by pathologic diagnoses. Genital swabs and biopsies were used to identify HPV types using the Linear Array genotyping method for swabs and INNO-LiPA for biopsy specimens. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: EGL incidence was determined among 1788 HPV-positive men, and cumulative incidence rates at 6, 12, and 24 mo were estimated. The proportion of HPV infections that progressed to EGL was also calculated, along with median time to EGL development. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Among 1788 HPV-positive men, 92 developed an incident EGL during follow-up (9 PeIN and 86 condyloma). During the first 12 mo of follow-up, 16% of men with a genital HPV 6 infection developed an HPV 6-positive condyloma, and 22% of genital HPV 11 infections progressed to an HPV 11-positive condyloma. During the first 12 mo of follow-up, 0.5% of men with a genital HPV 16 infection developed an HPV 16-positive PeIN. Although we expected PeIN to be a rare event, the sample size for PeIN (n=10) limited the types of analyses that could be performed. CONCLUSIONS: Most EGLs develop following infection with HPV 6, 11, or 16, all of which could be prevented with the 4-valent HPV vaccine. PATIENT SUMMARY: In this study, we looked at genital human papillomavirus (HPV) infections that can cause lesions in men. The HPV that we detected within the lesions could be prevented by a vaccine.

Senescent fibroblasts in melanoma initiation and progression: an integrated theoretical, experimental, and clinical approach.

We present an integrated study to understand the key role of senescent fibroblasts in driving melanoma progression. Based on the hybrid cellular automata paradigm, we developed an in silico model of normal skin. The model focuses on key cellular and microenvironmental variables that regulate interactions among keratinocytes, melanocytes, and fibroblasts, key components of the skin. The model recapitulates normal skin structure and is robust enough to withstand physical as well as biochemical perturbations. Furthermore, the model predicted the important role of the skin microenvironment in melanoma initiation and progression. Our in vitro experiments showed that dermal fibroblasts, which are an important source of growth factors in the skin, adopt a secretory phenotype that facilitates cancer cell growth and invasion when they become senescent. Our coculture experiments showed that the senescent fibroblasts promoted the growth of nontumorigenic melanoma cells and enhanced the invasion of advanced melanoma cells. Motivated by these experimental results, we incorporated senescent fibroblasts into our model and showed that senescent fibroblasts transform the skin microenvironment and subsequently change the skin architecture by enhancing the growth and invasion of normal melanocytes. The interaction between senescent fibroblasts and the early-stage melanoma cells leads to melanoma initiation and progression. Of microenvironmental factors that senescent fibroblasts produce, proteases are shown to be one of the key contributing factors that promoted melanoma development from our simulations. Although not a direct validation, we also observed increased proteolytic activity in stromal fields adjacent to melanoma lesions in human histology. This leads us to the conclusion that senescent fibroblasts may create a prooncogenic skin microenvironment that cooperates with mutant melanocytes to drive melanoma initiation and progression and should therefore be considered as a potential future therapeutic target. Interestingly, our simulations to test the effects of a stroma-targeting therapy that negates the influence of proteolytic activity showed that the treatment could be effective in delaying melanoma initiation and progression.

Vesiculobullous variant of adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma in a Caribbean Émigré.

Adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma (ATLL) results from human T-cell lymphotropic virus (HTLV) type I infection and may present as a diverse array of cutaneous findings. Often these clinical manifestations are non-specific and overlap significantly with cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (CTCL). However, it is exceedingly rare for a patient suffering from ATLL to develop vesicular or bullous pathology and only a handful of such cases have been reported in the literature. The authors describe a patient of Jamaican descent afflicted with ATLL who developed an impressive vesiculobullous eruption. This case provides further support of the near complete clinical overlap between ATLL and CTCL. Patients from HTLV endemic areas with consistent clinical manifestations should have viral serologies drawn as the treatment and prognosis of ATLL and CTCL differ greatly.