Perinatal Outcomes of Asynchronous Influenza Vaccination, Ceará, Brazil, 2013-2018.

In Ceará, Brazil, seasonal influenza transmission begins before national annual vaccination campaigns commence. To assess the perinatal consequences of this misalignment, we tracked severe acute respiratory infection (SARI), influenza, and influenza immunizations during 2013-2018. Among 3,297 SARI cases, 145 (4.4%) occurred in pregnant women. Statewide vaccination coverage was >80%; however, national vaccination campaigns began during or after peak influenza season. Thirty to forty weeks after peak influenza season, birthweights decreased by 40 g, and rates of prematurity increased from 10.7% to 15.5%. We identified 61 children born to mothers with SARI during pregnancy; they weighed 10% less at birth and were more likely to be premature than 122 newborn controls. Mistiming of influenza vaccination campaigns adversely effects perinatal outcomes in Ceará. Because Ceará is the presumptive starting point for north-to-south seasonal influenza transmission in Brazil, earlier national immunization campaigns would provide greater protection for pregnant women and their fetuses in Ceará and beyond.

Leveraging multiple data types to estimate the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas.

Several hundred thousand Zika cases have been reported across the Americas since 2015. Incidence of infection was likely much higher, however, due to a high frequency of asymptomatic infection and other challenges that surveillance systems faced. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model with empirically-informed priors, we leveraged multiple types of Zika case data from 15 countries to estimate subnational reporting probabilities and infection attack rates (IARs). Zika IAR estimates ranged from 0.084 (95% CrI: 0.067-0.096) in Peru to 0.361 (95% CrI: 0.214-0.514) in Ecuador, with significant subnational variability in every country. Totaling infection estimates across these and 33 other countries and territories, our results suggest that 132.3 million (95% CrI: 111.3-170.2 million) people in the Americas had been infected by the end of 2018. These estimates represent the most extensive attempt to determine the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas, offering a baseline for assessing the risk of future Zika epidemics in this region.

Intervention and Mechanisms of Alanyl-glutamine for Inflammation, Nutrition, and Enteropathy: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVE: Determine the minimum dosage of alanyl-glutamine (Ala-Gln) required to improve gut integrity and growth in children at risk of environmental enteropathy (EE). METHODS: This was a double-blinded randomized placebo-controlled dose-response trial. We enrolled 140 children residing in a low-income community in Fortaleza, Brazil. Participants were 2 to 60 months old and had weight-for-age (WAZ), height-for-age (HAZ), or weight-for-height (WHZ) z-scores less than -1. We randomized children to 10 days of nutritional supplementation: Ala-Gln at 3 g/day, Ala-Gln at 6 g/day, Ala-Gln at 12 g/day, or an isonitrogenous dose of glycine (Gly) placebo at 12.5 g/day. Our primary outcome was urinary lactulose-mannitol excretion testing. Secondary outcomes were anthropometry, fecal markers of inflammation, urine metabolic profiles, and malabsorption (spot fecal energy). RESULTS: Of 140 children, 103 completed 120 days of follow-up (24% dropout). In the group receiving the highest dose of Ala-Gln, we detected a modest improvement in urinary lactulose excretion from 0.19% on day 1 to 0.17% on day 10 (P = 0.05). We observed significant but transient improvements in WHZ at day 10 in 2 Ala-Gln groups, and in WHZ and WAZ in all Ala-Gln groups at day 30. We detected no effects on fecal inflammatory markers, diarrheal morbidity, or urine metabolic profiles; but did observe modest reductions in fecal energy and fecal lactoferrin in participants receiving Ala-Gln. CONCLUSIONS: Intermediate dose Ala-Gln promotes short-term improvement in gut integrity and ponderal growth in children at risk of EE. Lower doses produced improvements in ponderal growth in the absence of enhanced gut integrity.

An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics.

A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was generally lowest for high incidence seasons, those for which forecasts would be most valuable. A comparison of modeling approaches revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts. Leveraging these insights, data, and the forecasting framework will be critical to improve forecast skill and the application of forecasts in real time for epidemic preparedness and response. Moreover, key components of this project-integration with public health needs, a common forecasting framework, shared and standardized data, and open participation-can help advance infectious disease forecasting beyond dengue.

Local and regional dynamics of chikungunya virus transmission in Colombia: the role of mismatched spatial heterogeneity.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models of transmission dynamics are routinely fitted to epidemiological time series, which must inevitably be aggregated at some spatial scale. Weekly case reports of chikungunya have been made available nationally for numerous countries in the Western Hemisphere since late 2013, and numerous models have made use of this data set for forecasting and inferential purposes. Motivated by an abundance of literature suggesting that the transmission of this mosquito-borne pathogen is localized at scales much finer than nationally, we fitted models at three different spatial scales to weekly case reports from Colombia to explore limitations of analyses of nationally aggregated time series data. METHODS: We adapted the recently developed Disease Transmission Kernel (DTK)-Dengue model for modeling chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission, given the numerous similarities of these viruses vectored by a common mosquito vector. We fitted versions of this model specified at different spatial scales to weekly case reports aggregated at different spatial scales: (1) single-patch national model fitted to national data; (2) single-patch departmental models fitted to departmental data; and (3) multi-patch departmental models fitted to departmental data, where the multiple patches refer to municipalities within a department. We compared the consistency of simulations from fitted models with empirical data. RESULTS: We found that model consistency with epidemic dynamics improved with increasing spatial granularity of the model. Specifically, the sum of single-patch departmental model fits better captured national-level temporal patterns than did a single-patch national model. Likewise, multi-patch departmental model fits better captured department-level temporal patterns than did single-patch departmental model fits. Furthermore, inferences about municipal-level incidence based on multi-patch departmental models fitted to department-level data were positively correlated with municipal-level data that were withheld from model fitting. CONCLUSIONS: Our model performed better when posed at finer spatial scales, due to better matching between human populations with locally relevant risk. Confronting spatially aggregated models with spatially aggregated data imposes a serious structural constraint on model behavior by averaging over epidemiologically meaningful spatial variation in drivers of transmission, impairing the ability of models to reproduce empirical patterns.

Determinant Variables, Enteric Pathogen Burden, Gut Function and Immune-related Inflammatory Biomarkers Associated With Childhood Malnutrition: A Prospective Case-Control Study in Northeastern Brazil.

Malnutrition results in serious consequences for growth and cognitive development in children. We studied select child and maternal biologic factors, socioeconomic factors, enteric pathogenic burden and gut function biomarkers in 402 children 6-24 months of age in Northeastern Brazil. In this prospective case-control study, not being fed colostrum [odds ratio (OR): 3.29, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.73-6.26], maternal age ≥18 years (OR: 1.88, 95% CI: 1.10-3.22) and no electric fan (OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.22-4.96) or bicycle (OR: 1.80, 95% CI: 1.10-2.95) in the household were positively associated, and higher birth weight (OR: 0.27, 95% CI: 0.19-0.38), larger head circumference (OR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.66-0.82) and shortness of breath in the last 2 weeks (OR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.27-0.90) were negatively associated with malnutrition. Subclinical enteric pathogen infections were common, and enteroaggregative Escherichia coli infections were more prevalent in malnourished children (P = 0.045). Biomarkers such as the lactulose-mannitol test, myeloperoxidase, neopterin and calprotectin were highly elevated in both malnourished and nourished children. Nourished children had a better systemic immune response than the malnourished children, as detected by elevated serum amyloid A-1 and soluble cluster of differentiation protein 14 biomarkers (P < 0.001). Serum amyloid A-1 and soluble cluster of differentiation protein 14 were also associated with better nutritional Z scores. Neonatal, maternal and socioeconomic factors were associated with malnutrition in children. There was a substantial subclinical enteric pathogen burden, particularly with enteroaggregative E. coli, in malnourished children.

Biomarkers of Environmental Enteropathy, Inflammation, Stunting, and Impaired Growth in Children in Northeast Brazil.

Critical to the design and assessment of interventions for enteropathy and its developmental consequences in children living in impoverished conditions are non-invasive biomarkers that can detect intestinal damage and predict its effects on growth and development. We therefore assessed fecal, urinary and systemic biomarkers of enteropathy and growth predictors in 375 6-26 month-old children with varying degrees of malnutrition (stunting or wasting) in Northeast Brazil. 301 of these children returned for followup anthropometry after 2-6m. Biomarkers that correlated with stunting included plasma IgA anti-LPS and anti-FliC, zonulin (if >12m old), and intestinal FABP (I-FABP, suggesting prior barrier disruption); and with citrulline, tryptophan and with lower serum amyloid A (SAA) (suggesting impaired defenses). In contrast, subsequent growth was predicted in those with higher fecal MPO or A1AT and also by higher L/M, plasma LPS, I-FABP and SAA (showing intestinal barrier disruption and inflammation). Better growth was predicted in girls with higher plasma citrulline and in boys with higher plasma tryptophan. Interactions were also seen with fecal MPO and neopterin in predicting subsequent growth impairment. Biomarkers clustered into markers of 1) functional intestinal barrier disruption and translocation, 2) structural intestinal barrier disruption and inflammation and 3) systemic inflammation. Principle components pathway analyses also showed that L/M with %L, I-FABP and MPO associate with impaired growth, while also (like MPO) associating with a systemic inflammation cluster of kynurenine, LBP, sCD14, SAA and K/T. Systemic evidence of LPS translocation associated with stunting, while markers of barrier disruption or repair (A1AT and Reg1 with low zonulin) associated with fecal MPO and neopterin. We conclude that key noninvasive biomarkers of intestinal barrier disruption, LPS translocation and of intestinal and systemic inflammation can help elucidate how we recognize, understand, and assess effective interventions for enteropathy and its growth and developmental consequences in children in impoverished settings.

Early Childhood Diarrhea Predicts Cognitive Delays in Later Childhood Independently of Malnutrition.

Understanding the complex relationship between early childhood infectious diseases, nutritional status, poverty, and cognitive development is significantly hindered by the lack of studies that adequately address confounding between these variables. This study assesses the independent contributions of early childhood diarrhea (ECD) and malnutrition on cognitive impairment in later childhood. A cohort of 131 children from a shantytown community in northeast Brazil was monitored from birth to 24 months for diarrhea and anthropometric status. Cognitive assessments including Test of Nonverbal Intelligence (TONI), coding tasks (WISC-III), and verbal fluency (NEPSY) were completed when children were an average of 8.4 years of age (range = 5.6-12.7 years). Multivariate analysis of variance models were used to assess the individual as well as combined effects of ECD and stunting on later childhood cognitive performance. ECD, height for age (HAZ) at 24 months, and weight for age (WAZ) at 24 months were significant univariate predictors of the studies three cognitive outcomes: TONI, coding, and verbal performance (P < 0.05). Multivariate models showed that ECD remained a significant predictor, after adjusting for the effect of 24 months HAZ and WAZ, for both TONI (HAZ, P = 0.029 and WAZ, P = 0.006) and coding (HAZ, P = 0.025 and WAZ, P = 0.036) scores. WAZ and HAZ were also significant predictors after adjusting for ECD. ECD remained a significant predictor of coding (WISC III) after number of household income was considered (P = 0.006). This study provides evidence that ECD and stunting may have independent effects on children's intellectual function well into later childhood.

Prolonged maternal separation induces undernutrition and systemic inflammation with disrupted hippocampal development in mice.

OBJECTIVE: Prolonged maternal separation (PMS) in the first 2 wk of life has been associated with poor growth with lasting effects in brain structure and function. This study aimed to investigate whether PMS-induced undernutrition could cause systemic inflammation and changes in nutrition-related hormonal levels, affecting hippocampal structure and neurotransmission in C57BL/6J suckling mice. METHODS: This study assessed mouse growth parameters coupled with insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) serum levels. In addition, leptin, adiponectin, and corticosterone serum levels were measured following PMS. Hippocampal stereology and the amino acid levels were also assessed. Furthermore, we measured myelin basic protein and synapthophysin (SYN) expression in the overall brain tissue and hippocampal SYN immunolabeling. For behavioral tests, we analyzed the ontogeny of selected neonatal reflexes. PMS was induced by separating half the pups in each litter from their lactating dams for defined periods each day (4 h on day 1, 8 h on day 2, and 12 h thereafter). A total of 67 suckling pups were used in this study. RESULTS: PMS induced significant slowdown in weight gain and growth impairment. Significant reductions in serum leptin and IGF-1 levels were found following PMS. Total CA3 area and volume were reduced, specifically affecting the pyramidal layer in PMS mice. CA1 pyramidal layer area was also reduced. Overall hippocampal SYN immunolabeling was lower, especially in CA3 field and dentate gyrus. Furthermore, PMS reduced hippocampal aspartate, glutamate, and gamma-aminobutyric acid levels, as compared with unseparated controls. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that PMS causes significant growth deficits and alterations in hippocampal morphology and neurotransmission.

Urinary N-methylnicotinamide and ß-aminoisobutyric acid predict catch-up growth in undernourished Brazilian children.

Enteric infections, enteropathy and undernutrition in early childhood are preventable risk factors for child deaths, impaired neurodevelopment, and later life metabolic diseases. However, the mechanisms linking these exposures and outcomes remain to be elucidated, as do biomarkers for identifying children at risk. By examining the urinary metabolic phenotypes of nourished and undernourished children participating in a case-control study in Semi-Arid Brazil, we identified key differences with potential relevance to mechanisms, biomarkers and outcomes. Undernutrition was found to perturb several biochemical pathways, including choline and tryptophan metabolism, while also increasing the proteolytic activity of the gut microbiome. Furthermore, a metabolic adaptation was observed in the undernourished children to reduce energy expenditure, reflected by increased N-methylnicotinamide and reduced ß-aminoisobutyric acid excretion. Interestingly, accelerated catch-up growth was observed in those undernourished children displaying a more robust metabolic adaptation several months earlier. Hence, urinary N-methylnicotinamide and ß-aminoisobutyric acid represent promising biomarkers for predicting short-term growth outcomes in undernourished children and for identifying children destined for further growth shortfalls. These findings have important implications for understanding contributors to long-term sequelae of early undernutrition, including cognitive, growth, and metabolic functions.

Epidemic risk from cholera introductions into Mexico.

Stemming from the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti, cholera transmission in Hispaniola continues with over 40,000 cases in 2013. The presence of an ongoing cholera outbreak in the region poses substantial risks to countries throughout the Americas, particularly in areas with poor infrastructure. Since September 9, 2013 nearly 200 cholera cases have been reported in Mexico, as a result of introductions from Hispaniola or Cuba. There appear to have been multiple introductions into Mexico resulting in outbreaks of 2 to over 150 people. Using publicly available data, we attempt to estimate the reproductive number (R) of cholera in Mexico, and thereby assess the potential of continued introductions to establish a sustained epidemic. We estimate R for cholera in Mexico to be between 0.8 to 1.1, depending on the number of introductions, with the confidence intervals for the most plausible estimates crossing 1. These results suggest that the efficiency of cholera transmission in some regions of Mexico is near that necessary for a large epidemic. Intensive surveillance, evaluation of water and sanitation infrastructure, and planning for rapid response are warranted steps to avoid potential large epidemics in the region.

Salmonella typhi liver abscess overlying a metastatic melanoma.

Pyogenic liver abscesses caused by Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi, although rare, can occur especially in patients with pre-existing hepatobiliary disease, hepatocellular carcinoma, and metastatic liver tumors. We present a case of Salmonella liver abscesses complicating metastatic melanoma in a 24-year-old alcoholic male.

An aggregation-prone intermediate species is present in the unfolding pathway of the monomeric portal protein of bacteriophage P22: implications for portal assembly.

The head of the P22 bacteriophage is interrupted by a unique dodecameric portal vertex that serves as a conduit for the entrance and exit of the DNA. Here, the in vitro unfolding/refolding processes of the portal protein of P22 were investigated at different temperatures (1, 25, and 37 degrees C) through the use of urea and high hydrostatic pressure (HHP) combined with spectroscopic techniques. We have characterized an intermediate species, IU, which forms at 25 degrees C during unfolding or refolding of the portal protein in 2-4 M urea. IU readily forms amorphous aggregates, rendering the folding process irreversible. On the other hand, at 1 degrees C, a two-state process is observed (DeltaGf = -2.2 kcal/mol). When subjected to HHP at 25 or 37 degrees C, the portal monomer undergoes partial denaturation, also forming an intermediate species, which we call IP. IP also tends to aggregate but, differently from IU, aggregates into a ring-like structure as seen by size-exclusion chromatography and electron microscopy. Again, at 1 degrees C the unfolding induced by HHP proved to be reversible, with DeltaGf = -2.4 kcal/mol and DeltaV = 72 mL/mol. Interestingly, at 25 degrees C, the binding of the hydrophobic probe bis-ANS to the native portal protein destabilizes it and completely blocks its aggregation under HHP. These data are relevant to the process by which the portal protein assembles into dodecamers in vivo, since species such as IP must prevail over IU in order to guarantee the proper ring formation.

Early childhood diarrhea predicts impaired school performance.

OBJECTIVE: Diarrhea is a leading cause of mortality worldwide; however, its long-term morbidity is poorly understood. Recently, early childhood diarrhea (ECD) has been associated with impaired physical fitness, growth and cognitive function 6 to 9 years later. We studied the effects of ECD on school functioning in a shantytown in northeastern Brazil. DESIGN: We administered 77 educational surveys. Complete diarrhea surveillance (ie, >90%) in the first 2 years of life and demographic and anthropometric information were available for 73 children. Age at starting school was calculated for 62 children, whereas age appropriateness for the current grade (AFG) was calculated for all 73 children who were >6 years old. Stepwise regression was used to examine the independent effect of ECD on school functioning after controlling for socioeconomic factors, maternal education, breast feeding, growth and cognitive functioning. RESULTS: ECD correlated with age at starting school (r = 0.55, P = 0.0005) and remained a significant predictor even after controlling for family demographics, days of breast feeding, early growth and TONI-3 test of nonverbal intelligence. This was true despite significant correlations of ECD with growth shortfalls and impaired cognitive functioning. ECD also correlated with AFG (r = 0.38, P = 0.001). Only TONI-3 test scores explained this association, suggesting that ECD may hinder school performance, but only in part school readiness, by impairing cognitive function as measured by performance on the TONI-3 nonverbal intelligence test. CONCLUSIONS: These findings document effects of early childhood diarrhea on later school readiness and performance and hence potential long-term human and economic costs of ECD, which warrant further attention and far greater investment for the control of ECD and its consequences.

Early childhood diarrhea is associated with diminished cognitive function 4 to 7 years later in children in a northeast Brazilian shantytown.

Diarrhea is well recognized as a leading cause of childhood mortality and morbidity in developing countries; however, possible long-term cognitive deficits from heavy diarrhea burdens in early childhood remain poorly defined. To assess the potential long-term impact of early childhood diarrhea (in the first 2 years of life) on cognitive function in later childhood, we studied the cognitive function of a cohort of children in an urban Brazilian shantytown with a high incidence of early childhood diarrhea. Forty-six children (age range, 6-10 years) with complete diarrhea surveillance during their first 2 years of life were given a battery of five cognitive tests. Test of Non-Verbal Intelligence-III (TONI) scores were inversely correlated with early childhood diarrhea (P = .01), even when controlling for maternal education, duration of breast-feeding, and early childhood helminthiasis (Ascaris or Trichuris). Furthermore, Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (WISC-III) Coding Tasks and WISC-III Digit Span (reverse and total) scores were also significantly lower in the 17 children with a history of early childhood persistent diarrhea (PD; P < .05), even when controlling for helminths and maternal education. No correlations were seen between diarrhea rates and Wide Range Assessment of Memory and Learning subtests or WISC-III Mazes. This report (with larger numbers of participants and new tests) confirms and substantially extends previous pilot studies, showing that long-term cognitive deficits are associated with early childhood diarrhea. These findings have important implications for the importance of interventions that may reduce early childhood diarrheal illnesses or their consequences.