Increased Mortality Among Persons With Symptomatic Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) During the Period of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) B.1.617.2 (Delta Variant) Predominance: Alaska, November 2020-October 2021.

We compared the mortality risk in Alaska among persons with symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during the period the Delta variant was predominant to the risk among those with symptomatic COVID-19 before Delta predominance. The Delta period was associated with 2.43-fold higher odds of death. Unvaccinated persons were 4.49 times more likely to die than fully vaccinated persons.

Trial of Three Rounds of Mass Azithromycin Administration for Yaws Eradication.

BACKGROUND: Treponema pallidum subspecies pertenue causes yaws. Strategies to better control, eliminate, and eradicate yaws are needed. METHODS: In an open-label, cluster-randomized, community-based trial conducted in a yaws-endemic area of Papua New Guinea, we randomly assigned 38 wards (i.e., clusters) to receive one round of mass administration of azithromycin followed by two rounds of target treatment of active cases (control group) or three rounds of mass administration of azithromycin (experimental group); round 1 was administered at baseline, round 2 at 6 months, and round 3 at 12 months. The coprimary end points were the prevalence of active cases of yaws, confirmed by polymerase-chain-reaction assay, in the entire trial population and the prevalence of latent yaws, confirmed by serologic testing, in a subgroup of asymptomatic children 1 to 15 years of age; prevalences were measured at 18 months, and the between-group differences were calculated. RESULTS: Of the 38 wards, 19 were randomly assigned to the control group (30,438 persons) and 19 to the experimental group (26,238 persons). A total of 24,848 doses of azithromycin were administered in the control group (22,033 were given to the participants at round 1 and 207 and 2608 were given to the participants with yaws-like lesions and their contacts, respectively, at rounds 2 and 3 [combined]), and 59,852 doses were administered in the experimental group. At 18 months, the prevalence of active yaws had decreased from 0.46% (102 of 22,033 persons) at baseline to 0.16% (47 of 29,954 persons) in the control group and from 0.43% (87 of 20,331 persons) at baseline to 0.04% (10 of 25,987 persons) in the experimental group (relative risk adjusted for clustering, 4.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.90 to 8.76). The prevalence of other infectious ulcers decreased to a similar extent in the two treatment groups. The prevalence of latent yaws at 18 months was 6.54% (95% CI, 5.00 to 8.08) among 994 children in the control group and 3.28% (95% CI, 2.14 to 4.42) among 945 children in the experimental group (relative risk adjusted for clustering and age, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.12 to 3.70). Three cases of yaws with resistance to macrolides were found in the experimental group. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in the community prevalence of yaws was greater with three rounds of mass administration of azithromycin at 6-month intervals than with one round of mass administration of azithromycin followed by two rounds of targeted treatment. Monitoring for the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance is needed. (Funded by Fundació "la Caixa" and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03490123.).

Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed 2030 goals for Yaws.

The World Health Organization is currently developing 2030 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In these, yaws has been targeted for eradication by 2030, with 50% of member states certified free of yaws transmission by 2023. Here we summarise the yaws modelling literature and discuss the proposed goal and strategy. The current Morges strategy involves rounds of Total Community Treatment (TCT), in which all members of the community are treated, and Total Targeted Treatment (TTT), treating active cases and their contacts. However, modelling and empirical work suggest that latent infections are often not found in the same household as active cases, reducing the utility of household-based contact tracing for a TTT strategy. Economic modelling has also discovered uncertainty in the cost of eradication, requiring further data to give greater information. We also note the need for improved active surveillance in previously endemic countries, in order to plan future intervention efforts and ensure global eradication.

Spatial-temporal clustering analysis of yaws on Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea to enhance planning and implementation of eradication programs.

BACKGROUND: In the global program for the eradication of yaws, assessments of the prevalence of the disease are used to decide where to initiate mass treatment. However, the smallest administrative unit that should be used as the basis for making decisions is not clear. We investigated spatial and temporal clustering of yaws to help inform the choice of implementation unit. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analyzed 11 years of passive surveillance data on incident yaws cases (n = 1448) from Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea. After adjusting for age, sex, and trends in health-seeking, we detected three non-overlapping spatial-temporal clusters (p < 1 × 10(-17), p = 1.4 × 10(-14), p = 1.4 × 10(-8)). These lasted from 28 to 47 months in duration and each encompassed between 4 and 6 villages. We also assessed spatial clustering of prevalent yaws cases (n = 532) that had been detected in 7 biannual active case finding surveys beginning in 2013. We identified 1 statistically significant cluster in each survey. We considered the possibility that schools that serve multiple villages might be loci of transmission, but we found no evidence that incident cases of yaws among 8- to 14-year-olds clustered within primary school attendance areas (p = 0.6846). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These clusters likely reflect transmission of yaws across village boundaries; villages may be epidemiologically linked to a degree such that mass drug administration may be more effectively implemented at a spatial scale larger than the individual village.

Haemophilus ducreyi DNA is detectable on the skin of asymptomatic children, flies and fomites in villages of Papua New Guinea.

BACKGROUND: Haemophilus ducreyi and Treponema pallidum subsp. pertenue are major causes of leg ulcers in children in Africa and the Pacific Region. We investigated the presence of DNA (PCR positivity) from these bacteria on asymptomatic people, flies, and household linens in an endemic setting. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We performed a cross-sectional study in rural villages of Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea during a yaws elimination campaign. Participants were asymptomatic subjects recruited from households with cases of leg ulcers, and from households without cases of leg ulcers. We rubbed swabs on the intact skin of the leg of asymptomatic individuals, and collected flies and swabs of environmental surfaces. All specimens were tested by PCR for H. ducreyi and T. p. pertenue DNA. Of 78 asymptomatic participants that had an adequate specimen for DNA detection, H. ducreyi-PCR positivity was identified in 16 (21%) and T. p. pertenue-PCR positivity in 1 (1%). In subgroup analyses, H. ducreyi-PCR positivity did not differ in participants exposed or not exposed to a case of H. ducreyi ulcer in the household (24% vs 18%; p = 0.76). Of 17 cultures obtained from asymptomatic participants, 2 (12%) yielded a definitive diagnosis of H. ducreyi, proving skin colonization. Of 10 flies tested, 9 (90%) had H. ducreyi DNA and 5 (50%) had T. p. pertenue DNA. Of 6 bed sheets sampled, 2 (33%) had H. ducreyi DNA and 1 (17%) had T. p. pertenue DNA. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This is the first time that H. ducreyi DNA and colonization has been demonstrated on the skin of asymptomatic children and that H. ducreyi DNA and T. p. pertenue DNA has been identified in flies and on fomites. The ubiquity of H. ducreyi in the environment is a contributing factor to the spread of the organism.

Novel Ordered Stepped-Wedge Cluster Trial Designs for Detecting Ebola Vaccine Efficacy Using a Spatially Structured Mathematical Model.

BACKGROUND: During the 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak, policy-makers were confronted with difficult decisions on how best to test the efficacy of EVD vaccines. On one hand, many were reluctant to withhold a vaccine that might prevent a fatal disease from study participants randomized to a control arm. On the other, regulatory bodies called for rigorous placebo-controlled trials to permit direct measurement of vaccine efficacy prior to approval of the products. A stepped-wedge cluster study (SWCT) was proposed as an alternative to a more traditional randomized controlled vaccine trial to address these concerns. Here, we propose novel "ordered stepped-wedge cluster trial" (OSWCT) designs to further mitigate tradeoffs between ethical concerns, logistics, and statistical rigor. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We constructed a spatially structured mathematical model of the EVD outbreak in Sierra Leone. We used the output of this model to simulate and compare a series of stepped-wedge cluster vaccine studies. Our model reproduced the observed order of first case occurrence within districts of Sierra Leone. Depending on the infection risk within the trial population and the trial start dates, the statistical power to detect a vaccine efficacy of 90% varied from 14% to 32% for standard SWCT, and from 67% to 91% for OSWCTs for an alpha error of 5%. The model's projection of first case occurrence was robust to changes in disease natural history parameters. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Ordering clusters in a step-wedge trial based on the cluster's underlying risk of infection as predicted by a spatial model can increase the statistical power of a SWCT. In the event of another hemorrhagic fever outbreak, implementation of our proposed OSWCT designs could improve statistical power when a step-wedge study is desirable based on either ethical concerns or logistical constraints.

Time From Infection to Disease and Infectiousness for Ebola Virus Disease, a Systematic Review.

We systematically reviewed the literature to estimate the incubation and latent periods of Ebola virus disease. We found limited epidemiological data from individuals with discrete 1-day exposures. Available data suggest that the incubation and latent periods may differ, and mathematical models may be improved by distinguishing between the two periods.

Association with pathogenic bacteria affects life-history traits and population growth in Caenorhabditis elegans.

Determining the relationship between individual life-history traits and population dynamics is an essential step to understand and predict natural selection. Model organisms that can be conveniently studied experimentally at both levels are invaluable to test the rich body of theoretical literature in this area. The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, despite being a well-established workhorse in genetics, has only recently received attention from ecologists and evolutionary biologists, especially with respect to its association with pathogenic bacteria. In order to start filling the gap between the two areas, we conducted a series of experiments aiming at measuring life-history traits as well as population growth of C. elegans in response to three different bacterial strains: Escherichia coli OP50, Salmonella enterica Typhimurium, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1. Whereas previous studies had established that the latter two reduced the survival of nematodes feeding on them compared to E. coli OP50, we report for the first time an enhancement in reproductive success and population growth for worms feeding on S. enterica Typhimurium. Furthermore, we used an age-specific population dynamic model, parameterized using individual life-history assays, to successfully predict the growth of populations over three generations. This study paves the way for more detailed and quantitative experimental investigation of the ecology and evolution of C. elegans and the bacteria it interacts with, which could improve our understanding of the fate of opportunistic pathogens in the environment.