Dutch dairy farmers' perspectives on culling reasons and strategies.

Since the abolishment of the milk quota system in Europe in 2014 and the introduction of environmental policies such as the phosphate rights system in the Netherlands, the reasons for culling dairy cows might have changed. The aim of this study was to determine the culling reasons for dairy cattle and to identify farmers' culling strategies and their intentions regarding the alteration of indicated culling strategies. To this end, an online questionnaire was distributed among dairy farmers nationally that resulted in 207 responses. Results showed that the most frequent culling reasons were related to problems with reproduction, udder, and hoof health. Primiparous cows were primarily culled for miscellaneous reasons such as injury, reproduction failure, and low milk yield. Multiparous cows were culled predominantly for reproduction failure, udder health and hoof health reasons. Most respondents indicated that they consider formulating a culling strategy, based on certain rules of thumb regarding the most common reasons for culling. Most farmers also reported that culling decisions on their farms were perceived to be unavoidable, though reproductive culling decisions are primarily voluntary. Most respondents stated that they intended to reduce the culling rate for better economic gain did not intend to alter the amount of replacement stock reared. The applied rules of thumb regarding culling strategies do not seem to have changed since the policy changes in dairy farming. The question remains whether farmers' rules of thumb might have made them unaware of the actual economic consequences of their culling strategies under the altered situation.

Factors underlying Dutch farmers' intentions to adapt their agronomic management to reduce Fusarium species infection in wheat.

Infection of wheat by Fusarium species can lead to Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) and mycotoxin contamination, thereby reducing food quality and food safety, and leading to economic losses. Agronomic management through the implementation of various pre-harvest measures can reduce the probability of Fusarium spp. infection in the wheat field. To design interventions that could stimulate wheat farmers to (further) improve their agronomic management to reduce FHB, it is key to understand farmers' behaviour towards adapting their management. The aim of this paper was to understand the intention, underlying behavioural constructs, and beliefs of Dutch wheat farmers to adapt their agronomic management to reduce FHB and mycotoxin contamination in wheat, applying the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Data were collected from 100 Dutch wheat farmers via a questionnaire. The standard TPB analysis was extended with an assessment of the robustness of the belief results to account for the statistical validity of the analysis on TPB beliefs (i.e. to address the so-called expectancy-value muddle). Forty-six percent of the farmers had a positive intention to change their management in the next 5 years. The two behavioural constructs significantly related to this intention were attitude and social norm, whereas association with the perceived behavioural control construct was insignificant indicating that farmers did not perceive any barriers to change their behaviour. Relevant attitudinal beliefs indicated specific attributes of wheat, namely yield, quality and safety (lower mycotoxin contamination). This indicates that strengthening these beliefs-by demonstrating that a change in management will result in a higher yield and quality and lower mycotoxin levels-will result in a stronger attitude and, subsequently, a higher intention to change management. Interventions to strengthen these beliefs should preferably go by the most important referents for social norms, which were the buyers and the farmer cooperatives in this study.

Farm-specific failure costs of production disorders in European organic dairy herds.

On-farm decision support in animal health management requires a tailor-made failure costs (FCs) assessment of production disorders for the individual farm. In our study we defined a generic framework to estimate the FC of production disorders in dairy cows. We converted the framework to a practical tool in which the farm-specific FC of mastitis, ketosis, lameness and metritis were estimated for 162 organic dairy farms in four European countries. Along with the structure of the framework, the FC estimation required three distinct types of model input: performance input (related to herd performance parameters), consequential input (related to the consequences of the disorders) and economic input (related to price levels). Input was derived from official herd recordings (e.g. test-day records and animal health recordings) and farmers' responses (e.g. questionnaire replies). The average FC of mastitis, ketosis, lameness and metritis amounted to € 96, € 21, € 43 and € 10 per cow per year, respectively. The variation in FC outcomes was high among farmers and countries. Overall ranking of the disorders based on absolute values was the same for all countries, with mastitis being the costliest disorder followed in order by lameness, ketosis, and metritis. Farm specific estimates can be used to rank production related disorders in terms of their associated failure costs and thus provide valuable insights for herd health management. The practical calculation tool developed in this study should be considered by farmers or herd health advisors to support their animal health practices or advice.

Determinants of health seeking behaviour following rabies exposure in Ethiopia.

The objective of this study was to identify factors that determine medical treatment seeking behaviour following potential rabies exposure after being bitten by a suspected dog and the likelihood of compliance to receive sufficient doses of post-exposure prophylaxis after the visit to a health centre visit. A detailed survey based on case investigation was conducted on suspected rabid dog bite cases in three areas of Ethiopia. Two multivariable logistic regression models were created with a set of putative variables to explain treatment seeking and compliance outcomes. Based on the registered bite cases at each health centre and the set of unregistered bite cases derived by contact tracing, 655 bite victim cases were identified to have occurred between September 2013 and August 2014. Of these evaluated bite incidences, 465 cases were considered to have been caused by a potentially rabid dog. About 77% of these suspected rabid dog bite victims visited a health centre, while 57% received sufficient doses of PEP. The overall likelihood of seeking medical services following rabies exposure was higher for people bitten by dogs of unknown ownership, where the bite was severe, being bitten on the leg, spend of more than 100 USD per month and where the victim lived close to the nearest health centre, while the likelihood of receiving sufficient doses of PEP was sensitive to monthly spending and distance to health centre. However, the evaluated factors did only explain a part of the variation among the three districts. The district in which victims lived appeared to have a relevant influence on the likelihood of seeking medical treatment but did not improve the prediction on the likelihood of treatment compliance. Given the insights obtained from this study, improvements in the rural districts with regard to accessibility of post-exposure prophylaxis delivering health centres in shorter distance could improve health seeking behaviour. In addition, in rural districts, majority of exposed persons who seek medical treatment tend to comply with treatment regimen, indicating that the promotion of medical treatment through awareness creation campaigns could be beneficial.

Cost-Effectiveness of Mass Dog Vaccination Campaigns against Rabies in Flores Island, Indonesia.

A dynamic deterministic simulation model was developed to determine the cost-effectiveness of different mass dog vaccination strategies against rabies in a dog population representative of a typical village on Flores Island. Cost-effectiveness was measured as public cost per averted dog-rabies case. Simulations started with the introduction of one infectious dog into a susceptible dog population of 399 dogs and subsequently ran for a period of 10 years. The base scenario represented a situation without any control intervention. Evaluated vaccination strategies were as follows: annual vaccination campaigns with short-acting vaccine (immunity duration of 52 weeks) (AV_52), annual campaigns with long-acting vaccine (immunity duration of 156 weeks) (AV_156), biannual campaigns with short-acting vaccine (BV_52) and once-in-2-years campaigns with long-acting vaccine (O2V_156). The effectiveness of the vaccination strategies was simulated for vaccination coverages of 50% and 70%. Cumulative results were reported for the 10-year simulation period. The base scenario resulted in three epidemic waves, with a total of 1274 dog-rabies cases. The public cost of applying AV_52 at a coverage of 50% was US$5342 for a village. This strategy was unfavourable compared to other strategies, as it was costly and ineffective in controlling the epidemic. The costs of AV_52 at a coverage of 70% and AV_156 at a coverage of 70% were, respectively, US$3646 and US$3716, equivalent to US$3.00 and US$3.17 per averted dog-rabies case. Increasing the coverage of AV_156 from 50% to 70% reduced the number of cases by 7% and reduced the cost by US$1452, resulting in a cost-effectiveness ratio of US$1.81 per averted dog-rabies case. This simulation model provides an effective tool to explore the public cost-effectiveness of mass dog vaccination strategies in Flores Island. Insights obtained from the simulation results are useful for animal health authorities to support decision-making in rabies-endemic areas, such as Flores Island.

A Framework for Categorization of the Economic Impacts of Outbreaks of Highly Contagious Livestock Diseases.

A framework for categorization of economic impacts of outbreaks of highly contagious livestock diseases (HCLD) is presented. This framework interprets veterinary measures to control HCLD outbreaks with reference to economic definitions of costs and benefits, and the implications for value losses both for different stakeholders affected and society as a whole. Four cost categories are identified, that is virus control-related direct costs (DC), spread prevention and zoning-related direct consequential costs (DCC), market and price disruption-related costs during (indirect consequential costs, ICC) and after the outbreak (aftermath costs, AC). The framework is used to review existing literature on cost estimation for different stakeholders. This review shows considerable differences between studies, making comparison of results difficult and susceptible to misunderstanding. It is concluded that the framework provides a logical basis for all future analyses of the economic impacts of HCLD.

Simulation of Cross-border Impacts Resulting from Classical Swine Fever Epidemics within the Netherlands and Germany.

The cross-border region of the Netherlands (NL) and the two German states of North Rhine Westphalia (NRW) and Lower Saxony (LS) is a large and highly integrated livestock production area. This region increasingly develops towards a single epidemiological area in which disease introduction is a shared veterinary and, consequently, economic risk. The objectives of this study were to examine classical swine fever (CSF) control strategies' veterinary and direct economic impacts for NL, NRW and LS given the current production structure and to analyse CSF's cross-border causes and impacts within the NL-NRW-LS region. The course of the epidemic was simulated by the use of InterSpread Plus, whereas economic analysis was restricted to calculating disease control costs and costs directly resulting from the control measures applied. Three veterinary control strategies were considered: a strategy based on the minimum EU requirements, a vaccination and a depopulation strategy based on NL and GER's contingency plans. Regardless of the veterinary control strategy, simulated outbreak sizes and durations for 2010 were much smaller than those simulated previously, using data from over 10 years ago. For example, worst-case outbreaks (50th percentile) in NL resulted in 30-40 infected farms and lasted for two to four and a half months; associated direct costs and direct consequential costs ranged from €24.7 to 28.6 million and €11.7 to 26.7 million, respectively. Both vaccination and depopulation strategies were efficient in controlling outbreaks, especially large outbreaks, whereas the EU minimum strategy was especially deficient in controlling worst-case outbreaks. Both vaccination and depopulation strategies resulted in low direct costs and direct consequential costs. The probability of cross-border disease spread was relatively low, and cross-border spread resulted in small, short outbreaks in neighbouring countries. Few opportunities for further cross-border harmonization and collaboration were identified, including the implementation of cross-border regions (free and diseased regions regardless of the border) in case of outbreaks within close proximity of the border, and more and quicker sharing of information across the border. It was expected, however, that collaboration to mitigate the market effects of an epidemic will create more opportunities to lower the impact of CSF outbreaks in a cross-border context.

Epidemiology of Foot and Mouth Disease in Ethiopia: a Retrospective Analysis of District Level Outbreaks, 2007-2012.

This study aimed at determining the incidence, distribution, risk factors, and causal serotypes of foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in Ethiopia based on 5 years of retrospective outbreak data (September 2007 until August 2012). District level outbreak data were collected from 115 randomly selected districts using a questionnaire administered to district animal health officers. The national incidence of FMD outbreaks during the study period was 1.45 outbreaks per five district years. Outbreaks were geographically widespread affecting all major regional states in the country and were more frequent in the central, southern, and southeastern parts of the country. Neither long-term nor seasonal trends were observed in the incidence of outbreaks. A mixed effects logistic regression analysis revealed that the type of production system (market oriented system versus subsistence systems), presence of a major livestock market and/or route, and adjacency to a national parks or wildlife sanctuary were found to be associated with increased risk of outbreaks in the districts. FMD virus serotypes O, A, SAT 2, and SAT 1 were identified as the causal serotypes of the outbreaks during the study period. Whereas O was the dominant serotype, SAT 2 was the serotype that showed increase in relative frequency of occurrence. The estimated incidence of outbreaks is useful in assessing the economic impacts of the disease, and the identified risk factors provide important knowledge to target a progressive FMD control policy for Ethiopia.

Farmers' Intentions to Implement Foot and Mouth Disease Control Measures in Ethiopia.

The objectives of this study were to explore farmers' intentions to implement foot and mouth disease (FMD) control in Ethiopia, and to identify perceptions about the disease and its control measures that influence these intentions using the Health Belief Model (HBM) framework. Data were collected using questionnaires from 293 farmers in three different production systems. The influence of perceptions on the intentions to implement control measures were analyzed using binary logistic regression. The effect of socio-demographic and husbandry variables on perceptions that were found to significantly influence the intentions were analyzed using ordinal logistic regression. Almost all farmers (99%) intended to implement FMD vaccination free of charge. The majority of farmers in the pastoral (94%) and market oriented (92%) systems also had the intention to implement vaccination with charge but only 42% of the crop-livestock mixed farmers had the intention to do so. Only 2% of pastoral and 18% of crop-livestock mixed farmers had the intention to implement herd isolation and animal movement restriction continuously. These proportions increased to 11% for pastoral and 50% for crop-livestock mixed farmers when the measure is applied only during an outbreak. The majority of farmers in the market oriented system (>80%) had the intention to implement herd isolation and animal movement restriction measure, both continuously and during an outbreak. Among the HBM perception constructs, perceived barrier was found to be the only significant predictor of the intention to implement vaccination. Perceived susceptibility, perceived benefit and perceived barrier were the significant predictors of the intention for herd isolation and animal movement restriction measure. In turn, the predicting perceived barrier on vaccination control varied significantly with the production system and the age of farmers. The significant HBM perception predictors on herd isolation and animal movement restriction control were significantly influenced only by the type of production system. The results of this study indicate that farmers' intentions to apply FMD control measures are variable among production systems, an insight which is relevant in the development of future control programs. Promotion programs aimed at increasing farmers' motivation to participate in FMD control by charged vaccination or animal movement restriction should give attention to the perceived barriers influencing the intentions to apply these measures.

European organic dairy farmers' preference for animal health management within the farm management system.

The expertise and knowledge of veterinary advisors on improving animal health management is key towards a better herd health status. However, veterinary advisors are not always aware of the goals and priorities of dairy farmers. To dairy farmers animal health is only one aspect of farm management and resources may be allocated to other more preferred areas. Veterinary advisors may experience this as non-compliant with their advice. To explore the preferences of European Union (EU) organic dairy farmers for improved animal health management relative to other farm management areas an adaptive conjoint analysis (ACA) was performed. A total of 215 farmers participated originating from organic dairy farms in France (n = 70), Germany (n = 60), Spain (n = 28) and Sweden (n = 57). The management areas udder health and claw health represented animal health management whereas barn, calf and pasture management represented potential conflicting management areas. Results indicate that EU organic dairy farmers differ in their preferences for improved animal health management within the farming system. In general, improved calf management was the most preferred area and improved claw health management was found to be least preferred, the remaining areas were of intermediate interest. Cluster analyses on claw health measures and udder health measures resulted in respectively seven and nine distinct preference profiles. The results indicate a high degree of variation in farmers' preference, which cannot be explained by the typical herd characteristics. With the individual preferences revealed by ACA, a veterinary advisor can now find out whether his intended advice is directed at a favourable or unfavourable management area of the farmer. If the latter is the case the veterinarian should first create awareness of the problem to the farmer. Insights in individual farmers preferences will allow veterinary advisors to better understand why farmers were incompliant with their advice and improve their advice by showing, for example, the potential benefits of their advice.

The optimal number of heifer calves to be reared as dairy replacements.

Dairy farmers often keep almost all their newborn heifer calves despite the high cost of rearing. By rearing all heifer calves, farmers have more security and retain flexibility to cope with the uncertainty in the availability of replacement heifers in time. This uncertainty is due to mortality or infertility during the rearing period and the variation in culling rate of lactating cows. The objective of this study is to provide insight in the economically optimal number of heifer calves to be reared as replacements. A herd-level stochastic simulation model was developed specific for this purpose with a herd of 100 dairy cows; the biological part of the model consisted of a dairy herd unit and rearing unit for replacement heifers. The dairy herd unit included variation in the number of culled dairy cows. The rearing unit incorporated variation in the number of heifers present in the herd by including uncertainty in mortality and variation in fertility. The dairy herd unit and rearing unit were linked by the number of replacement heifers and culled dairy cows. When not enough replacement heifers were available to replace culled dairy cows, the herd size was temporarily reduced, resulting in an additional cost for the empty slots. When the herd size reached 100 dairy cows, the available replacement heifers that were not needed were sold. It was assumed that no purchase of cows and calves occurred. The optimal percentage of 2-wk-old heifer calves to be retained was defined as the percentage of heifer calves that minimized the average net costs of rearing replacement heifers. In the default scenario, the optimal retention was 73% and the total net cost of rearing was estimated at €40,939 per herd per year. This total net cost was 6.5% lower than when all heifer calves were kept. An earlier first-calving age resulted in an optimal retention of 75%, and the net costs of rearing were €581 per herd per year lower than in the default scenario. For herds with a lower or higher culling rate of dairy cows (10 or 40% instead of 25% in the default scenario), it was optimal to retain 35 or 100% of the heifer calves per year. Herds that had a lower or higher cost of empty slots (€50 or €120 per month instead of €82 in the default scenario) had an optimal retention of 49 or 83% per year; the optimal retention percentage was dependent on farm and herd characteristics. For Dutch dairy farming conditions, it was not optimal to keep all heifer calves.

Economic impact of foot and mouth disease outbreaks on smallholder farmers in Ethiopia.

Foot and mouth disease is endemic in Ethiopia with occurrences of several outbreaks every year. Quantitative information about the impact of the disease on smallholder farming systems in the country is, however, scarce. This study presents a quantitative assessment of the clinical and direct economic impacts of foot and mouth disease outbreaks on household level in smallholder livestock farming systems. Impacts were assessed based on data obtained from case outbreaks in cattle in crop-livestock mixed and pastoral smallholder farming systems that occurred in 2012 and 2013. Data were collected by using questionnaires administered to 512 smallholder farmers in six districts within two administrate zones that represent the two smallholder farming systems. Foot and mouth disease morbidity rates of 85.2% and 94.9% at herd level; and 74.3% and 60.8% at animal level in the affected herds were determined for crop-livestock mixed system and pastoral system, respectively. The overall and calf specific mortality rates were 2.4% and 9.7% for the crop-livestock mixed system, and 0.7% and 2.6% for the pastoral system, respectively. Herd level morbidity rate was statistically significantly higher in the pastoral system than in the crop-livestock mixed system (P<0.001). The economic losses of foot and mouth disease outbreak due to milk loss, draft power loss and mortality were on average USD 76 per affected herd and USD 9.8 per head of cattle in the affected herds in crop-livestock mixed system; and USD 174 per affected herd and USD 5.3 per head of cattle in the affected herds in the pastoral system. The herd level economic losses were statistically significantly higher for the pastoral system than for the crop-livestock mixed system (P<0.001). The major loss due to the disease occurred as a result of milk losses and draft power losses whereas mortality losses were relatively low. Although the presented estimates on the economic losses accounted only for the visible direct impacts of the disease on herd level, these conservative estimates signify a potential socioeconomic gain from a control intervention.

Economic analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands II: comparison of control strategies.

A combined epidemiological-economic modelling approach was used to analyse strategies for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) control for the Netherlands. The modelling framework used was InterSpread Plus (ISP), a spatially based, stochastic and dynamic simulation model. A total of eight control strategies were analysed, including pre-emptive depopulation and vaccination strategies. The analysis was carried out for three different regions in the Netherlands: high-, medium- and low-density areas (HDA, MDA and LDA, respectively). The analysis included the veterinary impact (e.g. number of infected premises and duration), but was particularly focused on the impact on direct costs (DC) and direct consequential costs. The efficient set of control strategies for HDA and MDA included strategies based on either pre-emptive depopulation only or combined vaccination and pre-emptive depopulation: D2 (pre-emptive depopulation within a radius of 2 km), RV3 + D1 (ring vaccination within a radius of 3 km and additional pre-emptive depopulation within a radius of 1 km) and PV + D1 (preventive vaccination in non-affected HDAs and pre-emptive depopulation within a radius of 1 km in the affected HDA). Although control solely based on depopulation in most cases showed to be effective for LDA, pre-emptive depopulation showed to have an additional advantage in these areas, that is, prevention of 'virus jumps' to other areas. The pros and cons of the efficient control strategies were discussed, for example, public perception and risk of export restrictions. It was concluded that for the Netherlands control of HPAI preferably should be carried out using strategies including pre-emptive depopulation with or without vaccination. Particularly, the short- and long-term implications on export, that is, indirect consequential costs (ICC) and aftermath costs of these strategies, should be analysed further.

Cross-border collaboration in the field of highly contagious livestock diseases: a general framework for policy support.

This paper analyses the potential gains and the main challenges for increased cross-border collaboration in the control of highly contagious livestock diseases in regions with cross-border reliance on production and consumption of livestock commodities. The aim of this intensification of cross-border collaboration is to retain the economic advantages of cross-border trade in livestock and livestock commodities while maintaining a low risk of highly contagious livestock diseases. From these two foci, possibilities for future policy making with respect to highly contagious livestock diseases are discussed: peacetime cross-border cooperation to improve the cost-effectiveness of routine veterinary measures and crisis time cross-border harmonization of current disease control strategies. A general disease management framework was used to describe the way in which these two fields are related to and affect the epidemiological system and, consequently, how they impact the stakeholders. In addition to this framework, the importance of a good understanding of influencing factors, that is, the production structure of livestock, was stressed because these factors are important determinants of the frequency and magnitude of highly contagious livestock diseases and their economic impact. The use of the suggested integrated approach was illustrated for the extended cross-border region of the Netherlands and Germany, that is, North Rhine Westphalia and Lower Saxony. For this region, current difficulties in cross-border trade in livestock and livestock commodities and possibilities for future cross-border collaboration were examined. The concepts and ideas presented in this paper should foster future development of cross-border collaboration in animal health control.

Economic analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands I: epidemiological modelling to support economic analysis.

Economic analysis of control strategies for contagious diseases is a necessity in the development of contingency plans. Economic impacts arising from epidemics such as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) consist of direct costs (DC), direct consequential costs (DCC), indirect consequential costs (ICC) and aftermath costs (AC). Epidemiological models to support economic analysis need to provide adequate outputs for these critical economic parameters. Of particular importance for DCC, ICC and AC is the spatial production structure of a region. Spatial simulation models are therefore particularly suited for economic analysis; however, they often require a large number of parameters. The aims of this study are (i) to provide an economic rationale of epidemiological modelling in general, (ii) to provide a transparent description of the parameterization of a spatially based epidemiological model for the analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands and (iii) to discuss the validity and usefulness of this model for subsequent economic analysis. In the model, HPAI virus transmission occurs via local spread and animal movements. Control mechanisms include surveillance and tracing, movement restrictions and depopulation. Sensitivity analysis of key parameters indicated that the epidemiological outputs with the largest influence on the economic impacts (i.e. epidemic duration and number of farms in the movement restriction zone) were more robust than less influential indicators (i.e. number of infected farms). Economically relevant outputs for strategy comparison were most sensitive to the relative role of the different transmission parameters. The default simulation and results of the sensitivity analysis were consistent with the general outcomes of known HPAI models. Comparison was, however, limited due to the absence of some economically relevant outputs. It was concluded that the model creates economically relevant, adequate and credible output for subsequent use in economic analysis. A detailed economic analysis is presented in a subsequent article.

Minimization of the impact of Aujeszky's disease outbreaks in The Netherlands: a conceptual framework.

In the Netherlands, outbreaks of Aujeszky's Disease (AD) are controlled by vaccination and movement restriction zones (MRZ). Although this strategy avoids the socio-ethical concerns associated with pre-emptive slaughter, it can easily result in animal welfare problems and negative economic consequences. These arise because movement restrictions result in surpluses of live (vaccinated) piglets on farms. The aim is to provide insight into the development of these surpluses and its impact and to describe how measures that allow early transportation of pigs under certain conditions and to specific destinations (channelling) could reduce these problems. For the analysis, a deterministic simulation model was developed, which calculates surpluses of piglets at multiplier farms during AD outbreaks. This is performed on a weekly basis for two areas (with and without piglet surplus), three outbreak durations (minimum, moderate and long) and three strategies for movement restrictions (strict, transports within the MRZ allowed and transports outside the MRZ allowed). The results show that in case of complete movement restrictions, surpluses of piglets varying in age and vaccination status will quickly arise. These surpluses are larger for longer epidemics and can become as large as 180-340 thousand piglets (45-75% of weekly domestic production) for moderate and long epidemics, respectively. Implementation of channelling strategies that allow earlier transportation within the MRZ can reduce surpluses by about 50% to 100-150 thousand piglets maximum. Strategies that also allow transportation outside the MRZ can reduce surpluses even further to below 100 thousand piglets. It was concluded that channelling of live piglets during AD outbreaks results in a drastic reduction of problems with accommodating ready-for-transport piglets. Moreover, it reduces shortages during movement restrictions and peak supply immediately after removing the restrictions. Channelling could therefore be an important instrument to reduce the economic and animal welfare impacts of containment measures.

Prospects for cost reductions from relaxing additional cross-border measures related to livestock trade.

Compared with the domestic trade in livestock, intra-communal trade across the European Union (EU) is subject to costly, additional veterinary measures. Short-distance transportation just across a border requires more measures than long-distance domestic transportation, while the need for such additional cross-border measures can be questioned. This study examined the prospects for cost reductions from relaxing additional cross-border measures related to trade within the cross-border region of the Netherlands (NL) and Germany (GER); that is, North Rhine Westphalia and Lower Saxony. The study constructed a deterministic spread-sheet cost model to calculate the costs of both routine veterinary measures (standard measures that apply to both domestic and cross-border transport) and additional cross-border measures (extra measures that only apply to cross-border transport) as applied in 2010. This model determined costs by stakeholder, region and livestock sector, and studied the prospects for cost reduction by calculating the costs after the relaxation of additional cross-border measures. The selection criteria for relaxing these measures were (1) a low expected added value on preventing contagious livestock diseases, (2) no expected additional veterinary risks in case of relaxation of measures and (3) reasonable cost-saving possibilities. The total cost of routine veterinary measures and additional cross-border measures for the cross-border region was €22.1 million, 58% (€12.7 million) of which came from additional cross-border measures. Two-thirds of this €12.7 million resulted from the trade in slaughter animals. The main cost items were veterinary checks on animals (twice in the case of slaughter animals), export certification and control of export documentation. Four additional cross-border measures met the selection criteria for relaxation. The relaxation of these measures could save €8.2 million (€5.0 million for NL and €3.2 million for GER) annually. Farmers would experience the greatest savings (99%), and most savings resulted from relaxing additional cross-border measures related to poultry (48%), mainly slaughter broilers (GER), and pigs (48%), mainly slaughter pigs (NL). In particular, the trade in slaughter animals (dead-end hosts) is subject to measures, such as veterinary checks on both sides of the border that might not contribute to preventing contagious livestock diseases. Therefore, this study concludes that there are several possibilities for reducing the costs of additional cross-border measures in both countries.

First-calving age and first-lactation milk production on Dutch dairy farms.

Farmers attempting to reduce first-calving age (FCA) need to understand which rearing management factors influence FCA and first-lactation milk production (FLP). Reduced FCA might be associated with lower FLP. This study describes the association between herd FCA, FLP, and several herd-level health and rearing management variables and describes the association between FCA and FLP at the cow level. It uses data from a 2010 survey of 100 Dutch dairy farms about general management, colostrum and milk feeding, housing, cleanliness, healthcare, disease, and breeding. It also used available data on FCA and 305-d FLP at both cow and herd level. The associations between median FCA and median FLP of the herd and herd-level health and rearing management variables were determined using multivariate regression analysis. The median FCA was associated with minimum age of first insemination, feeding of waste milk, and the amount of milk given preweaning. The median FLP was associated with median FCA and vaccination status for bovine respiratory syncytial virus. The association between FCA and FLP (based on 8,454 heifers) was analyzed with a single-effect linear mixed model, where the dependent variable was either FCA or relative FCA (defined as the difference between FCA of the heifer and median FCA of the herd to which they belonged). Heifers having an FCA of 24 mo produced, on average, 7,164 kg of milk per 305 d, and calving 1 mo earlier gave 143 kg less milk per 305 d. When FCA did not deviate from the median herd FCA, heifers produced, on average, 7,272 kg of milk per 305 d. From the median FCA of the herd, heifers calving 1 mo earlier produced 90 kg of milk per 305 d less, and heifers calving 1 mo later produced 86 kg per 305 d more. This is the first study that explained FLP using relative FCA. It assumes that heifers raised within the same farm have similar development because they are similarly managed. Similar management is reflected by the median FCA of the herd, with a deviation of the heifer's FCA from median FCA reflecting the heifer's development relative to the herd's average. The advantage of using relative FCA was that it accounts for between-farm differences in rearing management. It showed that earlier insemination without adjusting management to ensure sufficient development lowers FLP. An economic optimum exists between rearing costs, FCA, and FLP and, as a consequence, decisions with regard to young stock management should be made with care.

Estimating the costs of rearing young dairy cattle in the Netherlands using a simulation model that accounts for uncertainty related to diseases.

The costs of rearing young dairy cattle are a part of the cost of the price of milk, as rearing produces the future dairy cows. As most dairy farmers are not aware of the rearing costs, the rearing of dairy replacements often does not get the attention it deserves. Calculating the distribution of the rearing costs throughout the rearing process is difficult as the costs are correlated with biological processes, such as variation in growth rate and disease uncertainty. In this study, a calf level simulation model was built to estimate the rearing costs and their distribution from 2 weeks of age until first calving in the Netherlands. The uncertainties related to calf diseases (calf scours and bovine respiratory disease) were included, in which both the probabilities of disease and the effects of diseases (growth reduction) differ at different ages. In addition, growth was modeled stochastically and in a detailed manner using a two-phase growth function. The total cost of rearing young dairy cattle was estimated as €1567 per successfully reared heifer and varied between €1423 and €1715. Reducing the age of first calving by 1 month reduced the total cost between 2.6% and 5.7%. The difference in the average cost of rearing between heifers that calved at 24 months and those calving at 30 months was €400 per heifer reared. Average rearing costs were especially influenced by labor efficiency and cost of feed. The rearing costs of a heifer that experienced disease at least once (20% of the simulated heifers) were on average €95 higher than those of healthy heifers. Hence, for an individual diseased heifer, disease costs can be rather high, while the relative contribution to the average rearing cost for a standard Dutch dairy farm is low (approx. 3%). Overall, the model developed proved to be a useful tool to investigate the total cost of rearing young dairy cattle, providing insights to dairy farmers with respect to the cost-efficiency of their own rearing management.

Multi Criteria Decision Making to evaluate control strategies of contagious animal diseases.

The decision on which strategy to use in the control of contagious animal diseases involves complex trade-offs between multiple objectives. This paper describes a Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) application to illustrate its potential support to policy makers in choosing the control strategy that best meets all of the conflicting interests. The presented application focused on the evaluation of alternative strategies to control Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemics within the European Union (EU) according to the preferences of the European Chief Veterinary Officers (CVO). The performed analysis was centred on the three high-level objectives of epidemiology, economics and social ethics. The appraised control alternatives consisted of the EU compulsory control strategy, a pre-emptive slaughter strategy, a protective vaccination strategy and a suppressive vaccination strategy. Using averaged preference weights of the elicited CVOs, the preference ranking of the control alternatives was determined for six EU regions. The obtained results emphasized the need for EU region-specific control. Individual CVOs differed in their views on the relative importance of the various (sub)criteria by which the performance of the alternatives were judged. Nevertheless, the individual rankings of the control alternatives within a region appeared surprisingly similar. Based on the results of the described application it was concluded that the structuring feature of the MCDM technique provides a suitable tool in assisting the complex decision making process of controlling contagious animal diseases.