Leprosy in Brazil: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease estimates between 1990 and 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the occurrence of leprosy in Brazil and its states between 1990 and 2019, according to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates, and its correlation with development status. STUDY DESIGN: A descriptive and analytical ecological epidemiological study. METHODS: Rates of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLD) due to leprosy, standardized by age, per 100,000 inhabitants, were analyzed. The trend analysis consisted of the joinpoint regression model and the average annual percentage change. The correlation between the incidence rate and the sociodemographic index (SDI) was investigated (Spearman test) at a 5% significance level. Incidence, prevalence and YLD rates were presented by country's states, sex, and age. RESULTS: There was an average percentage decrease of -1.1% per year (P < 0.001) in the incidence rate in the country and, between 1990 and 2019, a decline from 4.8 to 3.5 per 100,000 inhabitants; prevalence from 26.1 to 22.2, and YLD from 1.1 to 1.0. The incidence rate was higher among men and the elderly. Maranhão (7.0 in 1990; 4.2 in 2019), Alagoas (6.6 in 1990; 4.1 in 2019), Acre (6.1 in 1990; 4.0 in 2019), Mato Grosso (5.2 in 1990 and 3.7 in 2019), and Mato Grosso do Sul (4.8 in 1990 and 3.7 in 2019) presented the highest incidence rates. A negative correlation was observed between SDI levels and leprosy incidence rates in 1990 (R = -0.71; P < 0.0001) and 2019 (R = -0.81; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the decrease in the rates of leprosy incidence, prevalence, and YLDs over the analyzed period, Brazil has a long way towards achieving its eradication. The greater burden of the disease in males stands out. The estimated risk of the disease was higher in the states with the lowest SDI levels. Therefore, interventions must consider the heterogeneity of the disease burden geographically and between sociodemographic groups.

Mortality due to cervical and breast cancer in health regions of Brazil: impact of public policies on cancer care.

OBJECTIVE: This analysis assessed the association between regional income, screening coverage for cervical and breast cancer, and temporal trends in mortality from these cancers in different Brazilian health regions. STUDY DESIGN: Spatiotemporal ecological study across 450 health regions of Brazil. METHODS: Data from 2010 Demographic Census were used to assess income. Variations in income distribution within health regions were measured using the Gini index. Data on screening coverage were obtained from the Ambulatory Information System (SIA/SUS). Mortality was assessed from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 data. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) in cervical and breast cancer mortality rates, 2010-2018, was calculated by health regions. Results were presented in regional maps. The associations between income, screening coverage and mortality changes were estimated by bivariate spatial correlation. RESULTS: Health regions located in the South and Southeast regions of Brazil had the greatest percentages of screening coverage and highest per capita incomes with the lowest Gini index values. From 2010 to 2018, mortality rates for cervical cancer were highest in the North and Northeast health regions. Breast cancer mortality rates were highest in the South and Southeast health regions. The AAPC in breast and cervical cancer mortality had a negative association with per capita income and screening coverage, and a positive association with the Gini index. CONCLUSIONS: There are large regional variations in income, screening coverage, and mortality rates for women with breast and cervical cancer. These inequities could be mitigated by policies to address income disparities and improved access to screening.

Sustainable Development Goals' health-related indicators for Brazil and Ecuador: an analysis for the period of 1990-2019.

OBJECTIVE: This article aims to analyse the evolution of 40 Sustainable Development Goals' (SDGs) health-related indicators in Brazil and Ecuador from 1990 to 2019. STUDY DESIGN: Epidemiological study of long-term trends in 40 SDGs' health-related indicators for Brazil and Ecuador from 1990 to 2019, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study. METHODS: Forty SDGs' health-related indicators and an index from 1990 to 2017 for Brazil and Ecuador, and their projections up to 2030 were extracted from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Global Burden of Disease website and analysed. The percent annual change (PC) between 1990 and 2019 was calculated for both countries. RESULTS: Both countries have made progress on child stunting (Brazil: PC = -38%; Ecuador: PC = -43%) and child wasting prevalences (Brazil: PC = -42%; Ecuador: PC = -41%), percent of vaccine coverage (Brazil: PC = +215%; Ecuador: PC = +175%), under-5 (Brazil: PC = -75%; Ecuador: PC = -60%) and neonatal mortality rates (Brazil: PC = -69%; Ecuador: PC = -51%), health worker density per 1000 population (Brazil: PC = +153%; Ecuador: PC = +175%), reduction of neglected diseases prevalences (Brazil: PC = -40%; Ecuador: PC = -58%), tuberculosis (Brazil: PC = -27%; Ecuador: PC = -55%) and malaria incidences (Brazil: PC = -97%; Ecuador: PC = -100%), water, sanitation and hygiene mortality rates (Brazil and Ecuador: PC = -89%). However, both countries did not show sufficient improvement in maternal mortality ratio to meet SDGs targets (Brazil: PC = -37%; Ecuador: PC = -40%). Worsening of indicators were found for violence, such as non-intimate partner violence for both countries (Brazil: PC = +26%; Ecuador: PC = +18%) and suicide mortality rate for Ecuador (PC = +66%), child overweight indicator for Brazil (PC = -67%), disaster mortality rates (Brazil: PC = +100%; Ecuador: PC = +325%) and alcohol consumption (Brazil: PC = +46%; Ecuador: PC = +35%). CONCLUSIONS: Significant improvements are necessary in both countries requiring the strengthening of health and other policies, particularly concerning the prevention and management of violence and alcohol consumption, and preparedness for dealing with environmental disasters.

Undernutrition, and overweight and obesity: the two faces of malnutrition in Brazil, analysis of the Global Burden of Disease, 1990 to 2019.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to analyse the global burden of disease attributable to undernutrition and high body mass index (BMI) in Brazil and its 27 states, as well as its association with the socio-demographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019. STUDY DESIGN: This is an epidemiological time-series study. METHODS: This study analysed the undernutrition and high BMI estimated by the Global Burden of Disease study conducted from 1990 to 2019 for Brazil and its states, using the following metrics: absolute number of deaths, standardised mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). This study also analysed the correlation between the percentage variation of mortality rates and SDI. RESULTS: A decrease in the number of deaths (-75 %), mortality rate (-75.1 %), and DALYS (-72 %) attributable to undernutrition was found in Brazil and in all regions. As regarding the high BMI, an increase in the number of deaths was found (139.6 %); however, the mortality rate (-9.7) and DALYs (-6.4 %) declined in all regions, except in the North and Northeast regions, which showed an increase. A strong correlation was identified between undernutrition and high BMI with SDI. CONCLUSION: Our study observed a double burden of malnutrition in Brazil, with a reduction in the burden of diseases due to malnutrition in Brazil and variation in the burden due to high BMI according to the socioeconomic status of the region. Public policies are necessary in order to guarantee the human right to a healthy and sustainable diet, together with food and nutrition security and a diminishing of social inequality.

Mortality by avoidable causes in Brazil from 1990 to 2019: data from the Global Burden of Disease Study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to analyse the trends of avoidable mortality in Brazil from 1990 to 2019 and its correlation with sociodemographic indexes (SDIs). STUDY DESIGN: Epidemiological mortality trends. METHODS: This study analysed data from the Global Burden of Disease database. The list of causes of avoidable death, as proposed by Nolte and McKee, was applied and included 32 causes. The current study used age-standardised mortality rates and the rates of change, in addition to a correlation analysis between avoidable death and the SDI. RESULTS: Mortality rates decreased from 343.90/100,000 inhabitants in 1990 to 155.80/100,000 inhabitants in 2019. Infectious diseases showed the largest decline in mortality rates, but notable decreases were also found for diarrhoeal diseases (-94.9%), maternal conditions (-66.5%) and neonatal conditions (-60.5%). Mortality rates for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) also decreased (-48%) but maintained a similar absolute number of deaths in 2019 compared with 1990. Decreased mortality rates were also found for ischaemic heart disease (-49.1%), stroke (-61.4%) and deaths due to adverse effects caused by medical treatments (-26.2%). Avoidable mortality rates declined in all of the 27 Brazilian states, and a high correlation was found between deaths and SDI (R = -0.74; P < 0.000001). CONCLUSIONS: A reduction in avoidable deaths was found throughout Brazil over the study period, although major regional inequalities were revealed. Richer states presented the best overall reduction in mortality rates. The biggest decreases in mortality were seen in maternal and paediatric infectious diseases in the poorest states due to the expansion of the Primary Health System and improvements in sanitation. Today, NCDs predominate and efforts should be made to formulate public policies for the prevention and control of NCDs.

Spatial association of homicide rate with violence, sociodemographic, and public security factors: global burden of disease study 2018 for municipalities in Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse spatial-temporal changes and spatial association of homicide rates with violence, sociodemographic, public security and human rights indicators in Brazilian municipalities. STUDY DESIGN: An ecological study using homicide estimates from the Global Burden of Disease and population from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, 2000 to 2018. The explanatory variables come from the systems of mortality, notifications of violence and security, and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. METHODS: Moran indices and maps identified clusters of high and low risk for homicides in three trienniums (p < 0.05). Multivariate linear and spatial regressions estimated explanatory factors' contributions for the last triennium. RESULTS: Municipalities with high rates of homicides (>34/100,000) doubled, reaching 21.5 %. Those rates were concentrated in big cities, and increased in smaller municipalities. Increases in critical areas were found in the Northeast and North regions: more than 40 % in the states of Sergipe, Bahia, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte and Roraima. Decreases occurred in the Southeast and Midwest regions: more than 35 % in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states. The spatial model, with an 18.9 % higher R2 (0.706), showed a positive association for records of violence, Blacks, low-level education, municipalities >50,000 inhabitants and municipalities with homicide and municipal police. CONCLUSIONS: An increase in and the interiorisation of homicide risk areas in Brazil was observed, with displacement among regions (from the Southeast to the North/Northeast). The level of violence was the main explanatory factor for homicides. Territorial space proved to be important to understand and prevent lethal crime.

Chagas disease deaths detected among garbage codes registered in mortality statistics in Brazil: a study from the buRden of ChAgas dISEase in the contemporary world (RAISE) project.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to identify Brazil's most critical garbage codes (GCs) reclassified to Chagas disease (ChD) in mortality data and their proportions. We also estimated the potential impact of misclassification on the number of deaths attributed to ChD. STUDY DESIGN: Population-based descriptive study. METHODS: We used the Mortality Information System (SIM; in Portuguese) data before and after routine GC investigation in 2015-2019 to evaluate ChD deaths detected among them. We identified priority GCs, which contributed more than 0.1 % to the percentage of total ChD deaths registered. Spearman's correlation was used to evaluate the association between the reclassification of priority GCs and ChD prevalence. Then, we applied the GC correction factors to estimate the number of deaths attributed to ChD. RESULTS: 22,154 deaths were reported as ChD in the study period. Among them, 1004 deaths originally listed as priority GCs were deaths reclassified to ChD after an investigation in the SIM final database. Unspecific cardiomyopathy (10.2 %), unspecific heart diseases (4.7 %), and heart failure (2.8 %) were GCs with the highest proportions of reclassification to ChD in Brazil. Higher ChD prevalence at the state level was associated with a higher proportion of GC deaths reclassified as ChD. When applying correction factors identified after investigation, we estimated an increase of 26.4 % in registered ChD deaths, mostly in states with higher endemicity. CONCLUSIONS: GCs might conceal deaths due to ChD, particularly in Brazil's states with higher endemicity. The approach suggested in this study may offer an alternative method for estimating ChD-related deaths in endemic countries.

Mortality by road transport injury in Brazilian municipalities between 2000 and 2018.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate patterns of mortality by road transport injury (RTI) in Brazilian municipalities, focused on deaths of motorcyclists, between 2000 and 2018, and their relation with population size and economic status. STUDY DESIGN: This was an ecological epidemiological study with a descriptive and analytical nature. METHODS: The age-standardized RTI mortality rates were calculated for the Brazilian municipalities, referring to the 3-year periods of 2000/2002 (T1), 2009/2011 (T2), and 2016/2018 (T3). The rates were stratified according to macroregion and population size and were compared in terms of percentage variation from one 3-year period to another. The Moran Global and Local indices were used in the spatial point-pattern analysis of the rates. To verify the association with the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the Spearman correlation coefficient was applied. RESULTS: A decline in RTI mortality rates was found between 2000 and 2018, with the most significant declines observed in municipalities from the South and Southeast regions of Brazil. However, increases were observed among motorcyclists. Clusters of municipalities were detected, which presented high mortality rates among the motorcyclists in the Northeast region and in some states of the North and Midwest regions. The mortality rates showed a negative correlation with the GDP per capita of the Brazilian municipalities. CONCLUSIONS: Although there were decreases in RTI mortality rates between 1990 and 2018, there was a significant increase in deaths among motorcyclists, especially in the Northeast, North, and Midwest regions of the country. Such differences can be explained by unequal growth in the size of the motorcycle fleet in those regions, by less law enforcement capability, and by the implementation of educational actions.

Bulked segregant analysis for relative water content to detect quantitative trait loci in wheat under drought stress.

This study was carried out to evaluate the genetic effect of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) conferring drought tolerance in wheat. A population of 120 F(2) individuals from the cross between the drought-tolerant S-78-11 and drought-sensitive Tajan cultivars were analyzed for their segregation under drought stress conditions. The relative water content under drought stress conditions exhibited continuous variation, indicating the minor gene effects on the trait. Single-marker analysis (SMA) was carried out to detect the main QTL association with drought tolerance. The SMA results revealed that the simple sequence repeat markers GWM182 and GWM292 on chromosome 5D and GWM410 on chromosome 5A exhibited significant association with drought tolerance, accounting for 30, 22, and 21% of the total variation, respectively. The 3 genetic loci, especially GWM182, can be used in marker-assisted selection methods in drought tolerance breeding in wheat.