Modeling of Parkinson's Disease Progression and Implications for Detection of Disease Modification in Treatment Trials.

Background: Objectively measuring Parkinson's disease (PD) signs and symptoms over time is critical for the successful development of treatments aimed at halting the disease progression of people with PD. Objective: To create a clinical trial simulation tool that characterizes the natural history of PD progression and enables a data-driven design of randomized controlled studies testing potential disease-modifying treatments (DMT) in early-stage PD. Methods: Data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) were analyzed with nonlinear mixed-effect modeling techniques to characterize the progression of MDS-UPDRS part I (non-motor aspects of experiences of daily living), part II (motor aspects of experiences of daily living), and part III (motor signs). A clinical trial simulation tool was built from these disease models and used to predict probability of success as a function of trial design. Results: MDS-UPDRS part III progresses approximately 3 times faster than MDS-UPDRS part II and I, with an increase of 3 versus 1 points/year. Higher amounts of symptomatic therapy is associated with slower progression of MDS-UPDRS part II and III. The modeling framework predicts that a DMT effect on MDS-UPDRS part III could precede effect on part II by approximately 2 to 3 years. Conclusions: Our clinical trial simulation tool predicted that in a two-year randomized controlled trial, MDS-UPDRS part III could be used to evaluate a potential novel DMT, while part II would require longer trials of a minimum duration of 3 to 5 years underscoring the need for innovative trial design approaches including novel patient-centric measures.

To develop effective medicines that can slow down or stop the progression of Parkinson's disease (PD), it is important to accurately understand how the disease worsens over time. We used data from an observational study, led by the Michael J. Fox Foundation, called the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) to understand the natural progression of  PD. We simulated clinical trials on a computer using different scales to measure the progression of PD. We specifically looked at a physician-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part III, and at a patient-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part II of how PD symptoms worsen over time. To measure the effect of a new medicine slowing down the progression of PD using patient-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part II, we estimate that we may need to conduct a clinical trial of at least 3 to 5 years. On the other hand, to measure an effect using physician-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part III, the duration of the trial could be shorter than 2 years. We were also able to show that worsening recorded by the physician-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part III could be predictive of a later worsening recorded by the patient-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part II. We concluded that MDS-UPDRS part III may be a good endpoint for a clinical trial of a reasonable duration and that MDS-UPDRS part II could be measured in longer studies, for example, open-label extensions.

Prasinezumab slows motor progression in rapidly progressing early-stage Parkinson's disease.

Prasinezumab, a monoclonal antibody that binds aggregated α-synuclein, is being investigated as a potential disease-modifying therapy in early-stage Parkinson's disease. Although in the PASADENA phase 2 study, the primary endpoint (Movement Disorder Society Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) sum of Parts I + II + III) was not met, prasinezumab-treated individuals exhibited slower progression of motor signs than placebo-treated participants (MDS-UPDRS Part III). We report here an exploratory analysis assessing whether prasinezumab showed greater benefits on motor signs progression in prespecified subgroups with faster motor progression. Prasinezumab's potential effects on disease progression were assessed in four prespecified and six exploratory subpopulations of PASADENA: use of monoamine oxidase B inhibitors at baseline (yes versus no); Hoehn and Yahr stage (2 versus 1); rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (yes versus no); data-driven subphenotypes (diffuse malignant versus nondiffuse malignant); age at baseline (≥60 years versus <60 years); sex (male versus female); disease duration (>12 months versus <12 months); age at diagnosis (≥60 years versus <60 years); motor subphenotypes (akinetic-rigid versus tremor-dominant); and motor subphenotypes (postural instability gait dysfunction versus tremor-dominant). In these subpopulations, the effect of prasinezumab on slowing motor signs progression (MDS-UPDRS Part III) was greater in the rapidly progressing subpopulations (for example, participants who were diffuse malignant or taking monoamine oxidase B inhibitors at baseline). This exploratory analysis suggests that, in a trial of 1-year duration, prasinezumab might reduce motor progression to a greater extent in individuals with more rapidly progressing Parkinson's disease. However, because this was a post hoc analysis, additional randomized clinical trials are needed to validate these findings.

Trial of Prasinezumab in Early-Stage Parkinson's Disease.

BACKGROUND: Aggregated α-synuclein plays an important role in the pathogenesis of Parkinson's disease. The monoclonal antibody prasinezumab, directed at aggregated α-synuclein, is being studied for its effect on Parkinson's disease. METHODS: In this phase 2 trial, we randomly assigned participants with early-stage Parkinson's disease in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive intravenous placebo or prasinezumab at a dose of 1500 mg or 4500 mg every 4 weeks for 52 weeks. The primary end point was the change from baseline to week 52 in the sum of scores on parts I, II, and III of the Movement Disorder Society-sponsored revision of the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS; range, 0 to 236, with higher scores indicating greater impairment). Secondary end points included the dopamine transporter levels in the putamen of the hemisphere ipsilateral to the clinically more affected side of the body, as measured by 123I-ioflupane single-photon-emission computed tomography (SPECT). RESULTS: A total of 316 participants were enrolled; 105 were assigned to receive placebo, 105 to receive 1500 mg of prasinezumab, and 106 to receive 4500 mg of prasinezumab. The baseline mean MDS-UPDRS scores were 32.0 in the placebo group, 31.5 in the 1500-mg group, and 30.8 in the 4500-mg group, and mean (±SE) changes from baseline to 52 weeks were 9.4±1.2 in the placebo group, 7.4±1.2 in the 1500-mg group (difference vs. placebo, -2.0; 80% confidence interval [CI], -4.2 to 0.2; P = 0.24), and 8.8±1.2 in the 4500-mg group (difference vs. placebo, -0.6; 80% CI, -2.8 to 1.6; P = 0.72). There was no substantial difference between the active-treatment groups and the placebo group in dopamine transporter levels on SPECT. The results for most clinical secondary end points were similar in the active-treatment groups and the placebo group. Serious adverse events occurred in 6.7% of the participants in the 1500-mg group and in 7.5% of those in the 4500-mg group; infusion reactions occurred in 19.0% and 34.0%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Prasinezumab therapy had no meaningful effect on global or imaging measures of Parkinson's disease progression as compared with placebo and was associated with infusion reactions. (Funded by F. Hoffmann-La Roche and Prothena Biosciences; PASADENA ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03100149.).

A Phase II Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Prasinezumab in Early Parkinson's Disease (PASADENA): Rationale, Design, and Baseline Data.

Background: Currently available treatments for Parkinson's disease (PD) do not slow clinical progression nor target alpha-synuclein, a key protein associated with the disease. Objective: The study objective was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of prasinezumab, a humanized monoclonal antibody that binds aggregated alpha-synuclein, in individuals with early PD. Methods: The PASADENA study is a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled treatment study. Individuals with early PD, recruited across the US and Europe, received monthly intravenous doses of prasinezumab (1,500 or 4,500 mg) or placebo for a 52-week period (Part 1), followed by a 52-week extension (Part 2) in which all participants received active treatment. Key inclusion criteria were: aged 40-80 years; Hoehn & Yahr (H&Y) Stage I or II; time from diagnosis ≤2 years; having bradykinesia plus one other cardinal sign of PD (e.g., resting tremor, rigidity); DAT-SPECT imaging consistent with PD; and either treatment naïve or on a stable monoamine oxidase B (MAO-B) inhibitor dose. Study design assumptions for sample size and study duration were built using a patient cohort from the Parkinson's Progression Marker Initiative (PPMI). In this report, baseline characteristics are compared between the treatment-naïve and MAO-B inhibitor-treated PASADENA cohorts and between the PASADENA and PPMI populations. Results: Of the 443 patients screened, 316 were enrolled into the PASADENA study between June 2017 and November 2018, with an average age of 59.9 years and 67.4% being male. Mean time from diagnosis at baseline was 10.11 months, with 75.3% in H&Y Stage II. Baseline motor and non-motor symptoms (assessed using Movement Disorder Society-Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale [MDS-UPDRS]) were similar in severity between the MAO-B inhibitor-treated and treatment-naïve PASADENA cohorts (MDS-UPDRS sum of Parts I + II + III [standard deviation (SD)]; 30.21 [11.96], 32.10 [13.20], respectively). The overall PASADENA population (63.6% treatment naïve and 36.4% on MAO-B inhibitor) showed a similar severity in MDS-UPDRS scores (e.g., MDS-UPDRS sum of Parts I + II + III [SD]; 31.41 [12.78], 32.63 [13.04], respectively) to the PPMI cohort (all treatment naïve). Conclusions: The PASADENA study population is suitable to investigate the potential of prasinezumab to slow disease progression in individuals with early PD. Trial Registration: NCT03100149.

Correction to: A phase III randomized trial of gantenerumab in prodromal Alzheimer's disease.

Following publication of the original article [1], the author reported errors in the formatting of the table. The details of the errors are as follows.

A phase III randomized trial of gantenerumab in prodromal Alzheimer's disease.

BACKGROUND: Gantenerumab is a fully human monoclonal antibody that binds aggregated amyloid-ß (Aß) and removes Aß plaques by Fc receptor-mediated phagocytosis. In the SCarlet RoAD trial, we assessed the efficacy and safety of gantenerumab in prodromal Alzheimer's disease (AD). METHODS: In this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase III study, we investigated gantenerumab over 2 years. Patients were randomized to gantenerumab 105 mg or 225 mg or placebo every 4 weeks by subcutaneous injection. The primary endpoint was the change from baseline to week 104 in Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) score. We evaluated treatment effects on cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers (all patients) and amyloid positron emission tomography (substudy). A futility analysis was performed once 50% of patients completed 2 years of treatment. Safety was assessed in patients who received at least one dose. RESULTS: Of the 3089 patients screened, 797 were randomized. The study was halted early for futility; dosing was discontinued; and the study was unblinded. No differences between groups in the primary (least squares mean [95% CI] CDR-SB change from baseline 1.60 [1.28, 1.91], 1.69 [1.37, 2.01], and 1.73 [1.42, 2.04] for placebo, gantenerumab 105 mg, and gantenerumab 225 mg, respectively) or secondary clinical endpoints were observed. The incidence of generally asymptomatic amyloid-related imaging abnormalities increased in a dose- and APOE ε4 genotype-dependent manner. Exploratory analyses suggested a dose-dependent drug effect on clinical and biomarker endpoints. CONCLUSIONS: The study was stopped early for futility, but dose-dependent effects observed in exploratory analyses on select clinical and biomarker endpoints suggest that higher dosing with gantenerumab may be necessary to achieve clinical efficacy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01224106 . Registered on October 14, 2010.

Sembragiline in Moderate Alzheimer's Disease: Results of a Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Phase II Trial (MAyflOwer RoAD).

BACKGROUND: Sembragiline is a potent, selective, long-acting, and reversible MAO-B inhibitor developed as a potential treatment for Alzheimer's disease (AD). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the safety, tolerability, and efficacy of sembragiline in patients with moderate AD. METHODS: In this Phase II study (NCT01677754), 542 patients with moderate dementia (MMSE 13-20) on background acetylcholinesterase inhibitors with/without memantine were randomized (1:1:1) to sembragiline 1 mg, 5 mg, or placebo once daily orally for 52 weeks. RESULTS: No differences between treated groups and placebo in adverse events or in study completion. The primary endpoint, change from baseline in ADAS-Cog11, was not met. At Week 52, the difference between sembragiline and placebo in ADAS-Cog11 change from baseline was - 0.15 (p = 0.865) and 0.90 (p = 0.312) for 1 and 5 mg groups, respectively. Relative to placebo at Week 52 (but not at prior assessment times), the 1 mg and 5 mg sembragiline groups showed differences in ADCS-ADL of 2.64 (p = 0.051) and 1.89 (p = 0.160), respectively. A treatment effect in neuropsychiatric symptoms (as assessed by the difference between sembragiline and placebo on BEHAVE-AD-FW) was also seen at Week 52 only: - 2.80 (p = 0.014; 1 mg) and - 2.64 (p = 0.019; 5 mg), respectively. A post hoc subgroup analysis revealed greater treatment effects on behavior and functioning in patients with more severe baseline behavioral symptoms (above the median). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that sembragiline was well-tolerated in patients with moderate AD. The study missed its primary and secondary endpoints. Post hoc analyses suggested potential effect on neuropsychiatric symptoms and functioning in more behaviorally impaired study population at baseline.

Combined Plasma and Cerebrospinal Fluid Signature for the Prediction of Midterm Progression From Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer Disease.

Importance: A reliable method of detecting Alzheimer disease (AD) in its prodromal state is needed for patient stratification in clinical trials or for personalizing existing or potential upcoming therapies. Current cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)- or imaging-based single biomarkers for AD offer reliable identification of patients with underlying AD but insufficient prediction of the rate of AD progression. Objective: To optimize prediction of progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to AD dementia by combining information from diverse patient variables. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study from the Alzheimer Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) enrolled 928 patients with MCI at baseline and 249 selected variables available in the ADNI data set. Variables included clinical and demographic data, cognitive scores, magnetic resonance imaging-based brain volumetric data, the apolipoprotein E (APOE) and translocase of outer mitochondrial membrane 40 homolog (TOMM40) genotypes, and analyte levels measured in the CSF and plasma. Data were collected in July 2012 and analyzed from July 1, 2012, to June 1, 2015. Main Outcomes and Measures: Progression from MCI to AD within 1 to 6 years. To determine whether combinations of markers could predict progression from MCI to AD within 1 to 6 years, the elastic net algorithm was used in an iterative resampling of a training- and test-based variable selection and modeling approach. Results: Among the 928 patients with MCI in the ADNI database, 94 had 224 of the required variables available for the modeling. The results showed the contributions of age, Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes composite test score, hippocampal volume, and multiple plasma and CSF factors in modeling progression to AD. A combination of apolipoprotein A-II and cortisol levels in plasma and fibroblast growth factor 4, heart-type fatty acid binding protein, calcitonin, and tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand receptor 3 (TRAIL-R3) in CSF allowed for reliable prediction of disease status 3 years from the time of sample collection (80% classification accuracy, 88% sensitivity, and 70% specificity). Conclusions and Relevance: These study findings suggest that a combination of markers measured in plasma and CSF, distinct from ß-amyloid and tau, could prove useful in predicting midterm progression from MCI to AD dementia. Such a large-scale, multivariable-based analytical approach could be applied to other similar large data sets involving AD and beyond.

Revolutionizing Alzheimer's disease and clinical trials through biomarkers.

The Alzheimer's Association's Research Roundtable met in May 2014 to explore recent progress in developing biomarkers to improve understanding of disease pathogenesis and expedite drug development. Although existing biomarkers have proved extremely useful for enrichment of subjects in clinical trials, there is a clear need to develop novel biomarkers that are minimally invasive and that more broadly characterize underlying pathogenic mechanisms, including neurodegeneration, neuroinflammation, and synaptic dysfunction. These may include blood-based assays and new neuropsychological testing protocols, as well as novel ligands for positron emission tomography imaging, and advanced magnetic resonance imaging methodologies. In addition, there is a need for biomarkers that can serve as theragnostic markers of response to treatment. Standardization remains a challenge, although international consortia have made substantial progress in this area and provide lessons for future standardization efforts.

Challenges in the development of companion diagnostics for neuropsychiatric disorders.

There are few examples of successful CNS diagnostics owing to our poor understanding of the mechanisms of disease. This article will discuss this and other challenges facing CNS diagnostic development with a focus on Alzheimer's disease, along with a discussion of potential future diagnostic assays that may help in the development of new CNS medications.