30-minute postload plasma glucose levels during an oral glucose tolerance test predict the risk of future type 2 diabetes: the Hisayama Study.

INTRODUCTION: To investigate the associations of 30 min postload plasma glucose (30 mPG) levels during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) with the risk of future diabetes in a general Japanese population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 2957 Japanese community-dwelling residents without diabetes, aged 40-79 years, participated in the examinations in 2007 and 2008 (participation rate, 77.1%). Among them, 2162 subjects who received 75 g OGTT in a fasting state with measurements of plasma glucose level at 0, 30, and 120 min were followed up for 7 years (2007-2014). Cox's proportional hazards model was used to estimate HRs and their 95% CIs of each index for the development of type 2 diabetes using continuous variables and quartiles with adjustment for traditional risk factors. The influence of 30 mPG on the predictive ability was estimated with Harrell's C-statistics, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and the continuous net reclassification index (cNRI). RESULTS: During follow-up, 275 subjects experienced type 2 diabetes. Elevated 30 mPG levels were significantly associated with increased risk of developing diabetes (p<0.01 for trend): the multivariable-adjusted HR was 8.41 (95% CI 4.97 to 14.24) for the highest versus the lowest quartile, and 2.26 (2.04 to 2.52) per 1 SD increase. This association was attenuated but remained significant after further adjustment for fasting and 2-hour postload plasma glucose levels. Incorporation of 30 mPG into the model including traditional risk factors with fasting and 2-hour postload plasma glucose levels for diabetes improved the predictive ability of type 2 diabetes (improvement in Harrell's C-statistics values: from 0.828 to 0.839, p<0.01; IDI: 0.016, p<0.01; cNRI: 0.103, p=0.37). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated 30 mPG levels were associated with increased risk of diabetes, and inclusion of 30 mPG levels significantly improved the predictive ability for future diabetes, suggesting that 30 mPG may be useful for identifying high-risk populations for type 2 diabetes.

Serum Ethylamine Levels as an Indicator of l-Theanine Consumption and the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in a General Japanese Population: The Hisayama Study.

OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the association between serum ethylamine levels as an indicator of l-theanine consumption and the development of type 2 diabetes in a Japanese community. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 2,253 community-dwelling Japanese individuals aged 40-79 years without diabetes were monitored for 7 years. Serum ethylamine levels were divided into quartiles: ≤0.86, 0.87-2.10, 2.11-5.28, and ≥5.29 ng/mL. Kinetic analysis of serum ethylamine concentrations was performed after ingestion of l-theanine-rich green tea products containing 8 mg of l-theanine by 12 healthy volunteers. RESULTS: During follow-up, 282 subjects developed type 2 diabetes. The age- and sex-adjusted cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes decreased significantly with elevating levels of serum ethylamine (P for trend = 0.04). This association remained unchanged after adjusting for potential confounding factors. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for type 2 diabetes was significantly lower in the fourth quartile of serum ethylamine than in the first quartile (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.49-0.98). This trend of decrease in diabetic risk across serum ethylamine levels was more prominent in middle-aged subjects and in subjects with prediabetes, obesity, or insulin resistance. Kinetic analysis estimated that the minimum concentration at the steady state was >5.90 ng/mL in the case of twice-daily ingestion with an interval of 12 h. CONCLUSIONS: Higher serum ethylamine was significantly associated with lower risk of the development of type 2 diabetes in a general Japanese population. The measurement of serum ethylamine concentration would be a useful biomarker for the objective estimation of l-theanine consumption.