RESUMEN
Forecasts of long-run economic growth are critical inputs into policy decisions being made today on the economy and the environment. Despite its importance, there is a sparse literature on long-run forecasts of economic growth and the uncertainty in such forecasts. This study presents comprehensive probabilistic long-run projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates, comparing estimates from an expert survey and a low-frequency econometric approach. Our primary results suggest a median 2010-2100 global growth rate in per-capita gross domestic product of 2.1% per year, with a standard deviation (SD) of 1.1 percentage points, indicating substantially higher uncertainty than is implied in existing forecasts. The larger range of growth rates implies a greater likelihood of extreme climate change outcomes than is currently assumed and has important implications for social insurance programs in the United States.
RESUMEN
Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.
RESUMEN
Designing efficient policies to slow global warming requires an approach that combines economic tools with relations from the natural sciences. The dynamic integrated climate-economy (DICE) model presented here, an intertemporal general-equilibrium model of economic growth and climate change, can be used to investigate alternative approaches to slowing climate change. Evaluation of five policies suggests that a modest carbon tax would be an efficient approach to slow global warming, whereas rigid emissions- or climate-stabilization approaches would impose significant net economic costs.
RESUMEN
Economies are sometimes viewed as analogous to ecological systems in which "everything is connected to everything else." In complex modern economies, the question arises whether the market mechanism can appropriately coordinate all the interconnections or whether instead some supramarket body is needed to coordinate the vast web of human activities. This study describes how an idealized decentralized competitive market in fact coordinates the different economic organisms in an efficient manner. The problems of pollution and other externalities can undo the efficient outcome unless corrected by appropriate property rights or corrective taxes. But in closing the economic circle, the internalized economy does not actually need to close the natural cycles by linking up all physical flows through recycling.
RESUMEN
The author examines some major concerns about global economic growth from both theoretical and empirical points of view, using "the limits-to-growth debate as a reference point to understand the earlier debate about the limits to and perils of growth, and to provide some perspective about the newer debate about environmental threats." He concludes that environmental and resource constraints on economic growth should be modest over the next 50 years and that economic growth is possible providing emphasis is given to "the importance of careful scientific and policy analysis and establishing or strengthening institutions that contain incentives that are compatible with the thoughtful balancing of long-run costs and benefits of social investments."
