Risk modelling of outcome after general and trauma surgery (the IRIS score).

BACKGROUND: A practical, easy to use model was developed to stratify risk groups in surgical patients: the Identification of Risk In Surgical patients (IRIS) score. METHODS: Over 15 years an extensive database was constructed in a general surgery unit, containing all patients who underwent general or trauma surgery. A logistic regression model was developed to predict mortality. This model was simplified to the IRIS score to enhance practicality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed. RESULTS: The database contained a consecutive series of 33 224 patients undergoing surgery. Logistic regression analysis gave the following formula for the probability of mortality: P (mortality) = A/(1 + A), where A = exp (-4.58 + (0.26 x acute admission) + (0.63 x acute operation) + (0.044 x age) + (0.34 x severity of surgery)). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.92. The IRIS score also included age (divided into quartiles, 0-3 points), acute admission, acute operation and grade of surgery. The AUC predicting postoperative mortality was 0.90. CONCLUSION: The IRIS score accurately predicted mortality after general or trauma surgery.

Outcome of elective primary surgery for diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon: a risk analysis based on the POSSUM scoring system.

BACKGROUND: The outcome of surgery for diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon remains largely unclear. A comparison of studies is hardly possible because risk factors for diverticular disease severity and patient-related risk factors are lacking. The purpose of this study was to define morbidity and mortality of primary surgery for nonacute complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon and to identify the risk factors that predict a higher morbidity and mortality. METHODS: Patients who underwent elective surgery for complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon (n = 149) were identified in a prospective computerized morbidity and mortality registration. In all patients, the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) was calculated, as were the morbidity and mortality rates. Factors predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality were identified. To audit mortality figures, a POSSUM based scoring system is introduced. RESULTS: The mortality rate was 4.7% and morbidity rate was 53.7%. Significantly higher morbidity rates were correlated with a higher physiological POSSUM score (P = 0.010). Non-survivors were older (P = 0.029) and also had a higher physiological POSSUM score (P < 0.001) and operation severity POSSUM score (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The morbidity and mortality rates of surgery for nonacute complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon are considerable. To a large extent, mortality and morbidity are driven by patient- and disease-related factors, as expressed by elevated physiological severity and operative severity scores and failures of peri-operative management in most deceased patients.

Mortality after acute surgery for complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon is almost exclusively due to patient related factors.

OBJECTIVE: Auditing the outcome of surgery for complicated diverticulitis of the sigmoid colon is difficult. A comparison of studies is hardly possible because risk factors both in terms of the severity of diverticulitis and patient-related risk factors are neither well described nor standardized. The purpose of this study was to define morbidity and mortality of primary surgery for acute complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon and to identify the relation between risk factors and morbidity and mortality. METHODS: In a prospective computerized morbidity and mortality registration from 1990 to 2002, 114 patients, who underwent surgery on an acute or urgent base for acute complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon, were identified. In all patients the POSSUM score was calculated. To audit mortality rates a POSSUM based scoring system was introduced. RESULTS: Mortality was 16.7%, and morbidity 71.1%. Higher morbidity rates were significantly related to a higher POSSUM physiological score (P = 0.012) and to older age (P < 0.001). Higher mortality rates also were significantly related to a higher POSSUM physiological score (P < 0.001) and older age (P = 0.003). Patients who died had significantly more sepsis (P < 0.001), multiple organ failure (P = 0.027), cardiac (P < 0.001) and pulmonary (P = 0.013) complications. Gender, operation indication and type of neither surgery nor surgeon had a significant relation with morbidity or mortality. CONCLUSION: Surgery for acute complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon carries a high morbidity rate and a substantial mortality rate. The majority of deceased patients had severe comorbidity. Post-operative mortality and morbidity are to a large extent driven by patient related factors. Elevated physiological severity scores and a lack of peri-operative management failures express this in the majority of deceased patients.

Operative mortality after colorectal resection in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to quantify factors related to operative mortality after colorectal resection in the Netherlands. METHODS: Multilevel logistic regression modelling was used. Institutional effects were calculated with and without adjustment for specific patient (age, sex, urgency of operation) and hospital (number of procedures, type of hospital) characteristics. All adult Dutch patients who underwent primary colorectal resection between 1994 and 1999 were included, except those who had (sub)total colectomy or local rectal resection. RESULTS: A total of 67 594 patients underwent colorectal resection. The in-hospital mortality rate was 7.0 per cent (elective 3.9 per cent, acute 14.3 per cent). Acute operation (odds ratio 3.89) and age (odds ratios 2.63, 5.23 and 10.13 for patients aged 50-69, 70-79 and 80 or more years respectively compared with those aged less than 50 years) had the strongest effects, followed by male sex (odds ratio 1.48) and type of hospital. There was no difference in operative mortality rate between low-, medium- and high-volume hospitals. CONCLUSION: In the Netherlands, advanced age and acute operation are by far the most important factors related to operative mortality after colorectal resection. Male sex and type of hospital have only a modest effect, and there is no discernible effect of hospital volume.

Reversal of Hartmann's procedure after surgery for complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon is safe and possible in most patients.

BACKGROUND: Although evidence is growing that most patients who need an operation for diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon can be treated by a single-stage procedure, a two-stage procedure will still be necessary in some patients because of significant sepsis or technical difficulties. The outcomes of 65 patients who underwent secondary restoration after a Hartmann procedure for complicated diverticulitis were studied and the factors leading to complications and mortality were identified. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Of 91 patients, in a consecutive 12-year period, whose primary operation was a Hartmann procedure, 72 survived longer than 3 months after discharge. Sixty-five underwent an attempted reversal of the Hartmann procedure. The POSSUM scores were calculated in all patients as well as the morbidity and mortality rates. RESULTS: In 63 (96.9%) patients the bowel continuity could be restored with a morbidity of 38.5% and a mortality of 3.1%. The POSSUM and p-POSSUM scores adequately predicted the mortality in this series. CONCLUSION: This series shows that when surgical treatment for complicated diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon is necessary, the Hartmann procedure is still a valid indication. In a high percentage of patients the Hartmann procedure could be restored with a low mortality.

Nationwide decline in annual numbers of abdomino-perineal resections: effect of a successful national trial?

OBJECTIVE: Large national trials may influence surgical practice. In this study the relation between the successful national randomized trial on the management of rectal cancer (the Dutch TME trial) and national ratio of abdomino-perineal resection to low anterior resection and anastomosis was analysed. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the study period, 1994-99, 15978 patients underwent either abdomino-perineal resection (n = 2575) or low anterior resection and anastomosis (n = 13403). The Dutch TME trial started in 1996 and a total of 1530 patients were included by 83 hospitals and 82.1% of these patients were treated from 1997 to 1999. Teaching sessions, tutor assisted surgery and quality control formed an integral and important part of the TME trial. RESULTS: Ratio of abdomino-perineal resection vs. low anterior resection was compared between period I (1994-96) and period II (1997-99). The ratio decreased from 0.19 to 0.13 between period I and II (95% CI, -0.08 to -0.04, P < 0.001). In hospital mortality rate did not change between period I and II (3.5 vs. 3.7, 95% CI, -0.08 to 0.03, P=0.385). CONCLUSION: Significant changes in surgical attitude may accompany successful national randomized trials in which investigated surgical procedures are specified, taught, and controlled. The APR ratio declined by 32% in the Netherlands during and following the Dutch TME trial, without a rise in hospital mortality rate for rectal resections.