Maternal and neonatal outcomes among spontaneous vaginal births occurring in or out of water following intrapartum water immersion: The POOL cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Warm water immersion during labour provides women with analgesia and comfort. This cohort study aimed to establish among women using intrapartum water immersion analgesia, without antenatal or intrapartum risk factors, whether waterbirth is as safe for them and their babies as leaving the water before birth. DESIGN: Cohort study with non-inferiority design. SETTING: Twenty-six UK NHS maternity services. SAMPLE: A total of 73 229 women without antenatal or intrapartum risk factors, using intrapartum water immersion, between 1 January 2015 and 30 June 2022. The analysis excluded 12 827 (17.5%) women who received obstetric or anaesthetic interventions before birth. METHODS: Non-inferiority analysis of retrospective and prospective data captured in NHS maternity and neonatal information systems. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Maternal primary outcome: obstetric anal sphincter injury (OASI) by parity; neonatal composite primary outcome: fetal or neonatal death, neonatal unit admission with respiratory support or administration of antibiotics within 48 hours of birth. RESULTS: Rates of the primary outcomes were no higher among waterbirths compared with births out of water: rates of OASI among nulliparous women (waterbirth: 730/15 176 [4.8%] versus births out of water: 641/12 210 [5.3%]; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.97, one-sided 95% CI, -∞ to 1.08); rates of OASI among parous women (waterbirth: 269/24 451 [1.1%] versus births out of water 144/8565 [1.7%]; aOR 0.64, one-sided 95% CI -∞ to 0.78) and rates of the composite adverse outcome among babies (waterbirth 263/9868 [2.7%] versus births out of water 224/5078 [4.4%]; aOR 0.65, one-sided 95% CI -∞ to 0.79). CONCLUSION: Among women using water immersion during labour, remaining in the pool and giving birth in water was not associated with an increase in the incidence of adverse primary maternal or neonatal outcomes.

Predicting type 1 diabetes in children using electronic health records in primary care in the UK: development and validation of a machine-learning algorithm.

BACKGROUND: Children presenting to primary care with suspected type 1 diabetes should be referred immediately to secondary care to avoid life-threatening diabetic ketoacidosis. However, early recognition of children with type 1 diabetes is challenging. Children might not present with classic symptoms, or symptoms might be attributed to more common conditions. A quarter of children present with diabetic ketoacidosis, a proportion unchanged over 25 years. Our aim was to investigate whether a machine-learning algorithm could lead to earlier detection of type 1 diabetes in primary care. METHODS: We developed the predictive algorithm using Welsh primary care electronic health records (EHRs) linked to the Brecon Dataset, a register of children newly diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. Children were included from their first primary care record within the study period of Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2016, until either type 1 diabetes diagnosis, they turned 15 years of age, or study end. We developed an ensemble learner (SuperLearner) using 26 potential predictors. Validation of the algorithm was done in English EHRs from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (primary care) and Hospital Episode Statistics, focusing on the ability of the algorithm to identify children who went on to develop type 1 diabetes and the time by which diagnosis could be anticipated. FINDINGS: The development dataset comprised 34 754 400 primary care contacts, relating to 952 402 children, and the validation dataset comprised 43 089 103 primary care contacts, relating to 1 493 328 children. Of these, 1829 (0·19%) children younger than 15 years in the development dataset, and 1516 (0·10%) in the validation dataset had a reliable date of type 1 diabetes diagnosis. If set to give an alert in 10% of contacts, an estimated 71·6% (95% CI 68·8-74·4) of the children with type 1 diabetes would receive an alert by the algorithm in the 90 days before diagnosis, with diagnosis anticipated, on average, by an estimated 9·34 days (95% CI 7·77-10·9). INTERPRETATION: If implemented into primary care settings, this predictive algorithm could substantially reduce the proportion of patients with new-onset type 1 diabetes presenting in diabetic ketoacidosis. Acceptability of alert thresholds should be explored in primary care. FUNDING: Diabetes UK.

Effectiveness of financial support interventions to reduce adverse health outcomes among households in fuel poverty in the United Kingdom.

Objectives: This systematic review intended to assess the effectiveness of financial support interventions for household fuel poverty in the UK in terms of reducing adverse impacts on the health and wellbeing of recipients. Methods: Bibliographic databases and grey literature sources were searched from the UK for studies that evaluated the health and wellbeing of participants following financial support to optimize indoor heating. Two independent reviewers carried out screening, data extraction and quality assessment of the articles. The outcomes included direct health-related outcomes such as Excess Winter Mortality (EWM), physical/mental health, health services utilization, well-being, and quality of life. Indirect health related outcomes included temperature, condensation/mould/dampness (CMD), fuel efficiency/expenditure and satisfaction with warmth. Due to the heterogeneity of interventions and outcomes, a narrative synthesis of the data was carried out. Results: Twenty studies were included in the review: randomized controlled trials (n = 1), before and after evaluation of interventions (n = 14), ecological studies (n = 1) and modelling studies (n = 4). Sixteen studies assessed impacts of home energy efficiency improvements (HEEI) only, three studies assessed impacts of Winter Fuel Payment (WFP) only while one study assessed impacts of both HEEI and WFP. HEEI studies reported improved indoor temperatures (n = 4), reduced CMD (n = 6), reduced fuel expenditure (n = 4), improved thermal comfort (n = 7), improvements in general health (n = 4), increased wellbeing (n = 4), improved physical health (n = 2), improved mental health (n = 3), reduced new health events (n = 1) and improved existing medical conditions (n = 2). Two HEEI were reported cost effective with added years to life. During modelling studies WFP was found to significantly reduce EWM (n = 2) and fibrinogen levels (n = 1). Conclusions: Most financial support interventions included in this review demonstrated positive impacts on health and wellbeing of recipients supporting their implementation with robust evaluations to better understand the cost effectiveness and long-term impacts in the future. Implementation of these interventions will require cross-sector collaborations, with consideration of which populations are most likely to benefit.

Long-term consequences of urinary tract infection in childhood: an electronic population-based cohort study in Welsh primary and secondary care.

BACKGROUND: Childhood urinary tract infection (UTI) can cause renal scarring, and possibly hypertension, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and end-stage renal failure (ESRF). Previous studies have focused on selected populations, with severe illness or underlying risk factors. The risk for most children with UTI is unclear. AIM: To examine the association between childhood UTI and outcomes in an unselected population of children. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective population-based cohort study using linked GP, hospital, and microbiology records in Wales, UK. METHOD: Participants were all children born in 2005-2009, with follow-up until 31 December 2017. The exposure was microbiologically confirmed UTI before the age of 5 years. The key outcome measures were renal scarring, hypertension, CKD, and ESRF. RESULTS: In total, 159 201 children were included; 77 524 (48.7%) were female and 7% (n = 11 099) had UTI before the age of 5 years. A total of 0.16% (n = 245) were diagnosed with renal scarring by the age of 7 years. Odds of renal scarring were higher in children by age 7 years with UTI (1.24%; adjusted odds ratio 4.60 [95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.33 to 6.35]). Mean follow-up was 9.53 years. Adjusted hazard ratios were: 1.44 (95% CI = 0.84 to 2.46) for hypertension; 1.67 (95% CI = 0.85 to 3.31) for CKD; and 1.16 (95% CI = 0.56 to 2.37) for ESRF. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of renal scarring in an unselected population of children with UTI is low. Without underlying risk factors, UTI is not associated with CKD, hypertension, or ESRF by the age of 10 years. Further research with systematic scanning of children's kidneys, including those with less severe UTI and without UTI, is needed to increase the certainty of these results, as most children are not scanned. Longer follow-up is needed to establish if UTI, without additional risk factors, is associated with hypertension, CKD, or ESRF later in life.

How are socioeconomic inequalities in preterm birth explained by maternal smoking and maternal body mass index: A mediation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth affects between 7% and 8% of births in the UK and is a leading cause of infant mortality and childhood disability. Prevalence of preterm birth has been shown to have significant and consistent socioeconomic inequalities. OBJECTIVE: To estimate how much of the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and gestational age at birth is mediated by maternal smoking status and maternal body mass index (BMI). METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of a maternity hospital in the UK. The analysis included all singleton live births between April 2009 and March 2020 to mothers 18 years old and over, between 22 weeks and 43 weeks gestation. We estimate two measures of mediation for four low gestational age categories: (i) The proportion eliminated the percentage of the effect of SES on low gestational age at birth that would be eliminated by removing the mediators, through the Controlled Direct Effects estimated using serial log-binomial regressions; and (ii) The proportion mediated is the percentage of the effect removed by equalising the distribution of the mediators across socioeconomic groups, estimated using Interventional Disparity Measures calculated through Monte Carlo simulations. RESULTS: Overall, 81,219 births were included, with 63.7% low SES. The risk of extremely (0.3% of all births), very (0.7%) and moderately preterm birth (6.3%) was 1.71 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.29, 2.31), 1.43 (95% CI 1.18, 1.73) and 1.26 (95% CI 1.19, 1.34) times higher in the low SES, compared to higher SES respectively. The proportion of this inequality eliminated by removing both maternal smoking and BMI was 43.4% for moderately preterm births. The proportion mediated for smoking was 33.9%, 43.0% and 48.4% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking during pregnancy is a key mediator of inequalities in preterm birth, representing an area for local action to reduce social inequalities in preterm birth.

Isolated choroid plexus cysts and health and developmental outcomes in childhood and adolescence - A systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Choroid plexus cysts (CPCs) are incidental findings on ultrasound examination of the fetal brain. It is not known if isolated CPCs are associated with any adverse health or neurodevelopmental outcomes during the life course. This systematic review aimed to collate and synthesize the evidence on whether or not isolated choroid plexus cysts are associated with an increased risk of adverse health or developmental outcomes during childhood and adolescence. METHODS: A search strategy was developed specifically for this study and applied to four electronic databases Medline (Ovid), Embase (Ovid), Web of Science, and Google Scholar. Studies were assessed and selected for inclusion if there was a measurement of CPC (including single or multiple; unilateral or bilateral; isolated or presenting alongside other markers) during the antenatal or early neonatal period (<7 days) with follow-up of children and adolescents for health and developmental outcomes measured at any time from age 1 month onwards. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. Due to heterogeneity in the types of outcome measures included and the timing of measurement of outcomes across the studies, it was not possible to pool data across studies and a narrative description of findings was presented. RESULTS: Eight studies (three cohorts and five case series) met the inclusion criteria. Different methods were used for outcome assessment, such as in-person assessment, parent questionnaires, medical records, and telephone interviews with parents. Six studies measured outcomes only once during the specified duration of follow-up; two studies carried out paediatric reviews of the children several times during follow-up. There were no differences in developmental outcomes or physical health between babies with CPCs reported in the three cohort studies, and no abnormalities were detected in the children that were followed up in four of the five case series studies. Most of the included studies were graded as low quality due to the small sample size, high risk of selection bias, unclear definitions of CPC or lack of a comparison group. CONCLUSIONS: The studies conducted to date do not provide evidence of adverse physical health outcomes or neurodevelopmental delays in babies with CPCs. However, most of these studies were small and included a narrow range of outcomes. Further research is needed to explore the relative incidence of outcomes such as ASD, ADHD, epilepsy and educational attainment in children with CPCs.

A conceptual framework for characterising lifecourse determinants of multiple long-term condition multimorbidity.

Objective: Social, biological and environmental factors in early-life, defined as the period from preconception until age 18, play a role in shaping the risk of multiple long-term condition multimorbidity. However, there is a need to conceptualise these early-life factors, how they relate to each other, and provide conceptual framing for future research on aetiology and modelling prevention scenarios of multimorbidity. We develop a conceptual framework to characterise the population-level domains of early-life determinants of future multimorbidity. Method: This work was conducted as part of the Multidisciplinary Ecosystem to study Lifecourse Determinants and Prevention of Early-onset Burdensome Multimorbidity (MELD-B) study. The conceptualisation of multimorbidity lifecourse determinant domains was shaped by a review of existing research evidence and policy, and co-produced with public involvement via two workshops. Results: Early-life risk factors incorporate personal, social, economic, behavioural and environmental factors, and the key domains discussed in research evidence, policy, and with public contributors included adverse childhood experiences, socioeconomics, the social and physical environment, and education. Policy recommendations more often focused on individual-level factors as opposed to the wider determinants of health discussed within the research evidence. Some domains highlighted through our co-production process with public contributors, such as religion and spirituality, health screening and check-ups, and diet, were not adequately considered within the research evidence or policy. Conclusions: This co-produced conceptualisation can inform research directions using primary and secondary data to investigate the early-life characteristics of population groups at risk of future multimorbidity, as well as policy directions to target public health prevention scenarios of early-onset multimorbidity.

Multidisciplinary ecosystem to study lifecourse determinants and prevention of early-onset burdensome multimorbidity (MELD-B) - protocol for a research collaboration.

Background: Most people living with multiple long-term condition multimorbidity (MLTC-M) are under 65 (defined as 'early onset'). Earlier and greater accrual of long-term conditions (LTCs) may be influenced by the timing and nature of exposure to key risk factors, wider determinants or other LTCs at different life stages. We have established a research collaboration titled 'MELD-B' to understand how wider determinants, sentinel conditions (the first LTC in the lifecourse) and LTC accrual sequence affect risk of early-onset, burdensome MLTC-M, and to inform prevention interventions. Aim: Our aim is to identify critical periods in the lifecourse for prevention of early-onset, burdensome MLTC-M, identified through the analysis of birth cohorts and electronic health records, including artificial intelligence (AI)-enhanced analyses. Design: We will develop deeper understanding of 'burdensomeness' and 'complexity' through a qualitative evidence synthesis and a consensus study. Using safe data environments for analyses across large, representative routine healthcare datasets and birth cohorts, we will apply AI methods to identify early-onset, burdensome MLTC-M clusters and sentinel conditions, develop semi-supervised learning to match individuals across datasets, identify determinants of burdensome clusters, and model trajectories of LTC and burden accrual. We will characterise early-life (under 18 years) risk factors for early-onset, burdensome MLTC-M and sentinel conditions. Finally, using AI and causal inference modelling, we will model potential 'preventable moments', defined as time periods in the life course where there is an opportunity for intervention on risk factors and early determinants to prevent the development of MLTC-M. Patient and public involvement is integrated throughout.