Machine learning-based scoring system to predict in-hospital outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The evolution of patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still hard to predict, even after several months of dealing with the pandemic. AIMS: To develop and validate a score to predict outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. METHODS: All consecutive adults hospitalized for COVID-19 from February to April 2020 were included in a nationwide observational study. Primary composite outcome was transfer to an intensive care unit from an emergency department or conventional ward, or in-hospital death. A score that estimates the risk of experiencing the primary outcome was constructed from a derivation cohort using stacked LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator), and was tested in a validation cohort. RESULTS: Among 2873 patients analysed (57.9% men; 66.6±17.0 years), the primary outcome occurred in 838 (29.2%) patients: 551 (19.2%) were transferred to an intensive care unit; and 287 (10.0%) died in-hospital without transfer to an intensive care unit. Using stacked LASSO, we identified 11 variables independently associated with the primary outcome in multivariable analysis in the derivation cohort (n=2313), including demographics (sex), triage vitals (body temperature, dyspnoea, respiratory rate, fraction of inspired oxygen, blood oxygen saturation) and biological variables (pH, platelets, C-reactive protein, aspartate aminotransferase, estimated glomerular filtration rate). The Critical COVID-19 France (CCF) risk score was then developed, and displayed accurate calibration and discrimination in the derivation cohort, with C-statistics of 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.75-0.80). The CCF risk score performed significantly better (i.e. higher C-statistics) than the usual critical care risk scores. CONCLUSIONS: The CCF risk score was built using data collected routinely at hospital admission to predict outcomes in patients with COVID-19. This score holds promise to improve early triage of patients and allocation of healthcare resources.

Prognostic value of right ventricular dilatation in patients with COVID-19: a multicentre study.

AIMS: Although cardiac involvement has prognostic significance in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and is associated with severe forms, few studies have explored the prognostic role of transthoracic echocardiography (TTE). We investigated the link between TTE parameters and prognosis in COVID-19. METHODS AND RESULTS: Consecutive patients with COVID-19 admitted to 24 French hospitals were retrospectively included. Comprehensive data, including clinical and biological parameters, were recorded at admission. Focused TTE was performed during hospitalization, according to clinical indication. Patients were followed for a primary composite outcome of death or transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) during hospitalization. Among 2878 patients, 445 (15%) underwent TTE. Most of these had cardiovascular risk factors, a history of cardiovascular disease, and were on cardiovascular treatments. Dilatation and dysfunction were observed in, respectively, 12% (48/412) and 23% (102/442) of patients for the left ventricle, and in 12% (47/407) and 16% (65/402) for the right ventricle (RV). Primary composite outcome occurred in 44% (n = 196) of patients [9% (n = 42) for death without ICU transfer and 35% (n = 154) for admission to ICU]. RV dilatation was the only TTE parameter associated with the primary outcome. After adjustment, male sex [hazard ratio (HR) 1.56, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09 - 2.25; P = 0.02], higher body mass index (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02 - 1.18; P = 0.01), anticoagulation (HR 0.53, 95% CI 0.33 - 0.86; P = 0.01), and RV dilatation (HR 1.66, 95% CI 1.05 - 2.64; P = 0.03) remained independently associated with the primary outcome. CONCLUSION: Echocardiographic evaluation of RV dilatation could be useful for assessing risk of severe COVID-19 developing in hospitalized patients.

Cardiovascular Characteristics and Outcomes of Young Patients with COVID-19.

Although 18-45-year-old (y-o) patients represent a significant proportion of patients hospitalized for COVID-19, data concerning the young population remain scarce. The Critical COVID France (CCF) study was an observational study including consecutive patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in 24 centers between 26 February and 20 April 2020. The primary composite outcome included transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU) or in-hospital death. Secondary outcomes were cardiovascular (CV) complications. Among 2868 patients, 321 (11.2%) patients were in the 18-45-y-o range. In comparison with older patients, young patients were more likely to have class 2 obesity and less likely to have hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidemia. The primary outcome occurred less frequently in 18-45-y-o patients in comparison with patients > 45 years old (y/o) (16.8% vs. 30.7%, p < 0.001). The 18-45-y-o patients presented with pericarditis (2.2% vs. 0.5%, p = 0.003) and myocarditis (2.5% vs. 0.6%, p = 0.002) more frequently than patients >45 y/o. Acute heart failure occurred less frequently in 18-45-y-o patients (0.9% vs. 7.2%, p < 0.001), while thrombotic complications were similar in young and older patients. Whereas both transfer to the ICU and in-hospital death occurred less frequently in young patients, COVID-19 seemed to have a particular CV impact in this population.

Characteristics and impact of cardiovascular comorbidities on coronavirus disease 2019 in women: A multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although women account for up to half of patients hospitalized for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), no specific data have been reported in this population. AIMS: To assess the burden and impact of cardiovascular comorbidities in women with COVID-19. METHODS: All consecutive patients hospitalized for COVID-19 across 24 hospitals from 26 February to 20 April 2020 were included. The primary composite outcome was transfer to an intensive care unit or in-hospital death. RESULTS: Among 2878 patients, 1212 (42.1%) were women. Women were older (68.3±18.0 vs. 65.4±16.0 years; P<0.001), but had less prevalent cardiovascular comorbidities than men. Among women, 276 (22.8%) experienced the primary outcome, including 161 (13.3%) transfers to an intensive care unit and 115 (9.5%) deaths without transfer to intensive care unit. The rate of in-hospital death or transfer to an intensive care unit was lower in women versus men (crude hazard ratio [HR]: 0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53-0.72). Age (adjusted HR: 1.05 per 5-year increase, 95% CI: 1.01-1.10), body mass index (adjusted HR: 1.06 per 2-unit increase, 95% CI: 1.02-1.10), chronic kidney disease (adjusted HR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.11-2.22) and heart failure (adjusted HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.04-2.22) were independently associated with the primary outcome in women. Elevated B-type natriuretic peptide/N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide (adjusted HR: 2.41, 95% CI: 1.70-3.44) and troponin (adjusted HR: 2.00, 95% CI: 1.39-2.88) concentrations at admission were also associated with the primary outcome, even in women free of previous coronary artery disease or heart failure. CONCLUSIONS: Although female sex was associated with a lower risk of transfer to an intensive care unit or in-hospital death, COVID-19 remained associated with considerable morbimortality in women, especially in those with cardiovascular diseases.

Association of diabetes and outcomes in patients with COVID-19: Propensity score-matched analyses from a French retrospective cohort.

BACKGROUND: Our study aimed to compare the clinical outcomes of patients with and without diabetes admitted to hospital with COVID-19. METHODS: This retrospective multicentre cohort study comprised 24 tertiary medical centres in France, and included 2851 patients (675 with diabetes) hospitalized for COVID-19 between 26 February and 20 April 2020. A propensity score-matching (PSM) method (1:1 matching including patients' characteristics, medical history, vital statistics and laboratory results) was used to compare patients with and without diabetes (n = 603 per group). The primary outcome was admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and/or in-hospital death. RESULTS: After PSM, all baseline characteristics were well balanced between those with and without diabetes: mean age was 71.2 years; 61.8% were male; and mean BMI was 29 kg/m2. A history of cardiovascular, chronic kidney and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases were found in 32.8%, 22.1% and 6.4% of participants, respectively. The risk of experiencing the primary outcome was similar in patients with or without diabetes [hazard ratio (HR): 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.95-1.41; P = 0.14], and was 1.29 (95% CI: 0.97-1.69) for in-hospital death, 1.26 (95% CI: 0.9-1.72) for death with no transfer to an ICU and 1.14 (95% CI: 0.88-1.47) with transfer to an ICU. CONCLUSION: In this retrospective study cohort of patients hospitalized for COVID-19, diabetes was not significantly associated with a higher risk of severe outcomes after PSM. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04344327.