Shock index predicts up to 90-day mortality risk after intracerebral haemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Shock index (SI - heart rate/systolic blood pressure) has been studied as a measure of haemodynamic status. We aimed to determine whether SI measures within 72 h of admission were associated with adverse outcomes in intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). METHODS: Patients were drawn from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive-Intracerebral Haemorrhage (VISTA-ICH). Multivariable Cox regressions modelled the relationship between SI (on admission, 24, 48, 72 h) and mortality (at 3-, 7-, and 90-days), 90-day incident pneumonia and cardiovascular events (MACE). Ordinal logistic regressions modelled the relationship between SI and 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS). RESULTS: 979 patients were included. Baseline SI was not associated with mortality. 24 h SI > 0.7 was associated with 7-day mortality (hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) = 3.14 (1.37-7.19)). 48 h and 72 h SI > 0.7 were associated with 7-day (4.23 (2.07-8.66) and 3.24 (1.41-7.42) respectively) and 90-day mortality (2.97 (1.82-4.85) and 2.05 (1.26-3.61) respectively). SI < 0.5 at baseline, 48 h and 72 h was associated with decreased pneumonia risk. 24 h and 48 h SI > 0.7was associated with increased MACE risk. 48 h and 72 h SI > 0.7 was associated with increased odds of higher 90-day mRS. CONCLUSION: Higher-than-normal SI subsequent to initial encounter was associated with higher post-ICH mortality at 3, 7, and 90 days. Lower-than-normal SI was associated with a decreased risk of incident pneumonia.

An Ecological Study Assessing the Relationship between Public Health Policies and Severity of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Reliance on government-led policies have heightened during the COVID-19 pandemic. Further research on the policies associated with outcomes other than mortality rates remains warranted. We aimed to determine associations between government public health policies on the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. This ecological study including countries reporting ≥25 daily COVID-related deaths until end May 2020, utilised public data on policy indicators described by the Blavatnik school of Government. Associations between policy indicators and severity of the pandemic (mean mortality rate, time to peak, peak deaths per 100,000, cumulative deaths after peak per 100,000 and ratio of mean slope of the descending curve to mean slope of the ascending curve) were measured using Spearman rank-order tests. Analyses were stratified for age, income and region. Among 22 countries, containment policies such as school closures appeared effective in younger populations (rs = -0.620, p = 0.042) and debt/contract relief in older populations (rs = -0.743, p = 0.009) when assessing peak deaths per 100,000. In European countries, containment policies were generally associated with good outcomes. In non-European countries, school closures were associated with mostly good outcomes (rs = -0.757, p = 0.049 for mean mortality rate). In high-income countries, health system policies were generally effective, contrasting to low-income countries. Containment policies may be effective in younger populations or in high-income or European countries. Health system policies have been most effective in high-income countries.

Country-level determinants of the severity of the first global wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: an ecological study.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to identify the country-level determinants of the severity of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Ecological study of publicly available data. Countries reporting >25 COVID-19 related deaths until 8 June 2020 were included. The outcome was log mean mortality rate from COVID-19, an estimate of the country-level daily increase in reported deaths during the ascending phase of the epidemic curve. Potential determinants assessed were most recently published demographic parameters (population and population density, percentage population living in urban areas, population >65 years, average body mass index and smoking prevalence); economic parameters (gross domestic product per capita); environmental parameters (pollution levels and mean temperature (January-May); comorbidities (prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and cancer); health system parameters (WHO Health Index and hospital beds per 10 000 population); international arrivals; the stringency index, as a measure of country-level response to COVID-19; BCG vaccination coverage; UV radiation exposure; and testing capacity. Multivariable linear regression was used to analyse the data. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Country-level mean mortality rate: the mean slope of the COVID-19 mortality curve during its ascending phase. PARTICIPANTS: Thirty-seven countries were included: Algeria, Argentina, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, the UK and the USA. RESULTS: Of all country-level determinants included in the multivariable model, total number of international arrivals (beta 0.033 (95% CI 0.012 to 0.054)) and BCG vaccination coverage (-0.018 (95% CI -0.034 to -0.002)), were significantly associated with the natural logarithm of the mean death rate. CONCLUSIONS: International travel was directly associated with the mortality slope and thus potentially the spread of COVID-19. Very early restrictions on international travel should be considered to control COVID-19 outbreaks and prevent related deaths.

Parkinson's disease and patient related outcomes in stroke: A matched cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate post-stroke outcomes in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). METHODS: A matched cohort study was performed. Stroke patients with PD and non-PD controls were extracted from the Thailand Universal Insurance Database. Logistic regressions were used to evaluate the association between PD and in-hospital outcomes (mortality and complications). The PD-associated long-term mortality was evaluated using Royston-Parmar models. RESULTS: A total of 1967 patients with PD were identified between 2003 and 2015 and matched to controls (1:4) by age, sex, admission year, and stroke type. PD patients had decreased odds of in-hospital death: OR (95% CI) 0.66 (0.52 - 0.84) and 0.61 (0.43 - 0.85) after ischaemic and haemorrhagic strokes, respectively. PD was associated with a length-of-stay greater than median (4 days) after both stroke types: 1.37 (1.21 - 1.56) and 1.45 (1.05 - 2.00), respectively. Ischaemic stroke patients with PD also had increased odds of developing pneumonia, sepsis and AKI: 1.52 (1.2 - 1.83), 1.54 (1.16 - 2.05), and 1.33 (1.02 - 1.73). In haemorrhagic stroke patients, PD was associated with pneumonia: 1.89 (1.31 - 2.72). Survival analyses showed that PD was protective against death in the short term (HR=0.66; 95% CI 0.53-0.83 ischaemic, and HR=0.50; 95% CI 0.37 - 0.68 haemorrhagic stroke), but leads to an increased mortality risk approximately 1 and 3 months after ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke, respectively. CONCLUSION: PD is associated with a reduced mortality risk during the first 2-4 weeks post-admission but an increased risk thereafter, in addition to increased odds of in-hospital complications and prolonged hospitalisation.

Impact of heart failure on stroke mortality and recurrence.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to examine the impact of heart failure (HF) on stroke mortality (in-hospital and postdischarge) and recurrence in a national stroke cohort from Thailand. METHODS: We used a large, insurance-based database including all stroke admissions in the public health sector in Thailand between 2004 and 2015. Logistic and Royston-Parmar regressions were used to quantify the effect of HF on in-hospital and long-term outcomes, respectively. All models were adjusted for age, sex and comorbidities and stratified by stroke type: acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) or intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). Multistate models were constructed using flexible survival techniques to predict the impact of HF on the disease course of a patient with stroke (baseline-[recurrence]-death). Only first-ever cases of AIS or ICH were included in the multistate analysis. RESULTS: 608 890 patients (mean age 64.29±13.72 years, 55.07% men) were hospitalised (370 527 AIS, 173 236 ICH and 65 127 undetermined pathology). There were 398 663 patients with first-ever AIS and ICH. Patients were followed up for a median (95% CI) of 4.47 years (4.45 to 4.49). HF was associated with an increase in postdischarge mortality in AIS (HR [99% CI] 1.69 [1.64 to 1.74]) and ICH (2.59 [2.07 to 3.26]). HF was not associated with AIS recurrence, while ICH recurrence was only significantly increased within the first 3 years after discharge (1.79 [1.18 to 2.73]). CONCLUSIONS: HF increases the risk of mortality in both AIS and ICH. We are the first to report on high-risk periods of stroke recurrence in patients with HF with ICH. Specific targeted risk reduction strategies may have significant clinical impact for mortality and recurrence in stroke.

Prevention and Treatment of Acute Stroke in the Nonagenarians and Beyond: Medical and Ethical Issues.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: As one of the fastest growing portions of the population, nonagenarians will constitute a significant percentage of the stroke patient population in the near future. Nonagenarians are nevertheless not specifically targeted by most clinical guidelines. In this review, we aimed to summarise the available evidence guiding stroke prevention and treatment in this age group. RECENT FINDINGS: Several recent observational studies have shown that the benefits of anticoagulation for the oldest old patients with atrial fibrillation may outweigh the bleeding risk. A sub-analysis of the IST-3 trial has shown for the first time that thrombolysis treatment in acute ischaemic stroke may be beneficial and safe even in octogenarian patients and older. Several recent observational studies have assessed thrombolysis in nonagenarians. The latest of these has shown better disability outcomes without increased rates of symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage with thrombolysis. Nonagenarian stroke patients may benefit from similar preventative and therapeutic strategies as their younger counterparts. A few important exceptions include primary prevention using aspirin or statins. Patient selection is nevertheless essential given the increased adverse event rates. Patient preference should play a key role in the decision-making process. Clinical trials including more nonagenarian patients are required to yield more robust evidence.