Experimental migration upward in elevation is associated with strong selection on life history traits.

One of the strongest biological impacts of climate change has been the movement of species poleward and upward in elevation. Yet, what is not clear is the extent to which the spatial distribution of locally adapted lineages and ecologically important traits may also shift with continued climate change. Here, we take advantage of a transplant experiment mimicking up-slope seed dispersal for a suite of ecologically diverse populations of yellow monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus sensu lato) into a high-elevation common garden during an extreme drought period in the Sierra Nevada mountains, California, USA. We use a demographic approach to quantify fitness and test for selection on life history traits in local versus lower-elevation populations and in normal versus drought years to test the potential for up-slope migration and phenotypic selection to alter the distribution of key life history traits in montane environments. We find that lower-elevation populations tend to outperform local populations, confirming the potential for up-slope migration. Although selection generally favored some local montane traits, including larger flowers and larger stem size at flowering, drought conditions tended to select for earlier flowering typical of lower-elevation genotypes. Taken together, this suggests that monkeyflower lineages moving upward in elevation could experience selection for novel trait combinations, particularly under warmer and drier conditions that are predicted to occur with continued climate change.

Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change.

Populations of many species are genetically adapted to local historical climate conditions. Yet most forecasts of species' distributions under climate change have ignored local adaptation (LA), which may paint a false picture of how species will respond across their geographic ranges. We review recent studies that have incorporated intraspecific variation, a potential proxy for LA, into distribution forecasts, assess their strengths and weaknesses, and make recommendations for how to improve forecasts in the face of LA. The three methods used so far (species distribution models, response functions, and mechanistic models) reflect a trade-off between data availability and the ability to rigorously demonstrate LA to climate. We identify key considerations for incorporating LA into distribution forecasts that are currently missing from many published studies, including testing the spatial scale and pattern of LA, the confounding effects of LA to nonclimatic or biotic drivers, and the need to incorporate empirically based dispersal or gene flow processes. We suggest approaches to better evaluate these aspects of LA and their effects on species-level forecasts. In particular, we highlight demographic and dynamic evolutionary models as promising approaches to better integrate LA into forecasts, and emphasize the importance of independent model validation. Finally, we urge closer examination of how LA will alter the responses of central vs. marginal populations to allow stronger generalizations about changes in distribution and abundance in the face of LA.

Both life-history plasticity and local adaptation will shape range-wide responses to climate warming in the tundra plant Silene acaulis.

Many predictions of how climate change will impact biodiversity have focused on range shifts using species-wide climate tolerances, an approach that ignores the demographic mechanisms that enable species to attain broad geographic distributions. But these mechanisms matter, as responses to climate change could fundamentally differ depending on the contributions of life-history plasticity vs. local adaptation to species-wide climate tolerances. In particular, if local adaptation to climate is strong, populations across a species' range-not only those at the trailing range edge-could decline sharply with global climate change. Indeed, faster rates of climate change in many high latitude regions could combine with local adaptation to generate sharper declines well away from trailing edges. Combining 15 years of demographic data from field populations across North America with growth chamber warming experiments, we show that growth and survival in a widespread tundra plant show compensatory responses to warming throughout the species' latitudinal range, buffering overall performance across a range of temperatures. However, populations also differ in their temperature responses, consistent with adaptation to local climate, especially growing season temperature. In particular, warming begins to negatively impact plant growth at cooler temperatures for plants from colder, northern populations than for those from warmer, southern populations, both in the field and in growth chambers. Furthermore, the individuals and maternal families with the fastest growth also have the lowest water use efficiency at all temperatures, suggesting that a trade-off between growth and water use efficiency could further constrain responses to forecasted warming and drying. Taken together, these results suggest that populations throughout species' ranges could be at risk of decline with continued climate change, and that the focus on trailing edge populations risks overlooking the largest potential impacts of climate change on species' abundance and distribution.

An ultraviolet floral polymorphism associated with life history drives pollinator discrimination in Mimulus guttatus.

UNLABELLED: • PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Ultraviolet (UV) floral patterns are common in angiosperms and mediate pollinator attraction, efficiency, and constancy. UV patterns may vary within species, yet are cryptic to human observers. Thus, few studies have explicitly described the distribution or ecological significance of intraspecific variation in UV floral patterning. Here, we describe the geographic distribution and pattern of inheritance of a UV polymorphism in the model plant species Mimulus guttatus (Phrymaceae). We then test whether naturally occurring UV phenotypes influence pollinator interactions within M. guttatus.• METHODS: We document UV patterns in 18 annual and 19 perennial populations and test whether UV pattern is associated with life history. To examine the pattern of inheritance, we conducted crosses within and between UV phenotypes. Finally, we tested whether bee pollinators discriminate among naturally occurring UV phenotypes in two settings: wild bee communities and captive Bombus impatiens.• KEY RESULTS: Within M. guttatus, perennial populations exhibit a small bulls-eye pattern, whereas a bilaterally symmetric runway pattern occurs mainly in annual populations. Inheritance of UV patterning is consistent with a single-locus Mendelian model in which the runway phenotype is dominant. Bee pollinators discriminate against unfamiliar UV patterns in both natural and controlled settings.• CONCLUSIONS: We describe a widespread UV polymorphism associated with life history divergence within Mimulus guttatus. UV pattern influences pollinator visitation and should be considered when estimating reproductive barriers between life history ecotypes. This work develops a new system to investigate the ecology and evolution of UV floral patterning in a species with extensive genomic resources.

Mating system plasticity promotes persistence and adaptation of colonizing populations of hermaphroditic angiosperms.

Persistence and adaptation in novel environments are limited by small population size, strong selection, and maladaptive gene flow. Mating system plasticity is common in angiosperms and may provide both demographic and genetic benefits that promote niche evolution, including reproductive assurance and isolation from maladaptive gene flow. Yet increased self-fertilization may also cause inbreeding depression, accumulation of deleterious mutations, and reduced adaptive potential. Here we use individual-based simulations to examine the consequences of mating system plasticity for persistence and adaptation in a novel environment that imposes selection on a quantitative trait. We examine the joint evolution of local adaptation, inbreeding depression, and genetic load. We find that a plastic shift to a mixed mating system generally promotes niche evolution by decreasing the risk of extinction, providing isolation from maladaptive gene flow, and temporarily increasing genetic variance in the trait under selection, whereas obligate self-fertilization reduces adaptive potential. These effects are most pronounced under conditions of mate limitation, strong selection, or maladaptive gene flow. Our results highlight the diverse demographic and genetic consequences of self-fertilization and support the potential role for plastic shifts in mating system to promote niche evolution in flowering plants.

Niche partitioning between close relatives suggests trade-offs between adaptation to local environments and competition.

Niche partitioning among close relatives may reflect trade-offs underlying species divergence and coexistence (e.g., between stress tolerance and competitive ability). We quantified the effects of habitat and congeneric species interactions on fitness for two closely related herbaceous plant species, Mimulus guttatus and Mimulus laciniatus, in three common habitat types within their sympatric range. Drought stress strongly reduced survival of M. guttatus in fast-drying seeps occupied by M. laciniatus, suggesting that divergent habitat adaptation maintains this niche boundary. However, neither seedling performance nor congeneric competition explained the absence of M. laciniatus from shady streams where M. guttatus thrives. M. laciniatus may be excluded from this habitat by competition with other species in the community or mature M. guttatus. Species performance and competitive ability were similar in sympatric meadows where plant community stature and the growing season length are intermediate between seeps and streams. Stochastic effects (e.g., dispersal among habitats or temporal variation) may contribute to coexistence in this habitat. Habitat adaptation, species interactions, and stochastic mechanisms influence sympatric distributions for these recently diverged species.