What is the mind map of the hospital's future changes in a developing country like Iran? A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Hospitals have a vital role in the future of health systems with upcoming structure, resources, and process changes. Identifying the potential aspects of change helps managers proactively approach them, use the opportunities, and avoid threats. This study presents a mind map of future changes in Iranian hospitals to develop a base for further related studies or prepare evidence for interventions and future-related decisions. METHODS: This study is a qualitative-exploratory one, conducted in two phases. In the first phase, in-depth and semi-structured interviews were conducted to identify future hospital changes over 15 years. The interviews were analyzed using the content analysis method and MAXQDA 2018 software and holding two expert panels to develop the mind map using the 2016 Visio software. RESULTS: In the first phase, 33 interviews led to 144 change patterns. In the second phase, a mind map of changes was drawn according to experts' opinions with ten categories: structure and role, knowledge management and research, service delivery, health forces, political and legal, economic, demographic and disease, technological, and values and philosophy, and environmental. CONCLUSIONS: Many changes affecting hospitals rooted in the past continue to the future, but the point is the increasing intensity and speed of changes. Healthcare systems need a systematic approach to monitoring the environment to be updated, agile and proactive. These monitoring systems are essential in providing evidence for Macro-level decision-makers.

What Do Future Trends in Medical Education Mean to the Scientific Development of Iran's Health System?

Background: Medical education system in Iran has an essential role in responding to scientific development targets from both education and research perspectives. Investigating future trends and analyzing how they interact with the medical education system helps increase awareness and give insight into the preferred future. Methods: The present qualitative study consists of Systematic reviews and interviews that have been analyzed using content analysis. Afterward, the themes and codes were visualized in the form of maps and presented in a focus group discussion of experts to define how medical education trends will impact scientific development. Results: The future trends of Iran's medical education system were classified into six groups: workplace changes, demographic changes, changes in concepts, the emergence of new players, structural changes in universities, and technology development. The next point is how they will influence science development. Their impact on science development is classified into five main groups or main streams of change of new financial models, open science, redesigning the research management, the role of universities, and capacity building. Conclusion: Our findings showed that redesigning the structure of medical education is the most important priority to make the system as agile as needed to capture the signs and act. New meanings and concepts should also be considered in restructuring, like power balance, competency-based and personalized education, cost-effectiveness, and openness.

Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) of community-based futures study for pediatric obesity in Iran.

BACKGROUND: Childhood obesity has been regarded as one of the main healthcare challenges in the last century, leading to critical health problems and reduced life expectancy. Many factors can play a role in its development or prevention. Using the Trend Impact Analysis (TIA), this study aimed to conduct a community-based futures study for pediatric obesity in Iran. METHODS: We obtained the prevalence of overweight and obesity from the database of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education. Moreover, we reviewed 21 documents, texts, and comments from three key stakeholders in Iran and prepared a list of key experts, who were stakeholders in the field of obesity prevention of childhood in different organizations. Then, we collected the expert opinions by Delphi method. Data analysis was performed using the Excel and R software. RESULTS: Fourteen experts participated in the first stage and nine experts in the second stage. We identified two positive drivers, including the prevalence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the widespread expansion of online educational programs. Meanwhile, we identified five negative drivers as follows: (1) controlling and limiting obesogenic environments in the community, school, and family; (2) running annual compulsory anthropometry programs for students of all educational levels in health centers; (3) integrating nutrition education interventions in the curricula of all educational levels; (4) taxation of unhealthy and fast foods; and (5) preparing safe and appropriate sports environments for children and adolescents (on the streets, schools, parks, and sports clubs). Without considering the drivers, the prevalence of overweight and obesity is predicted to reach 29.10% in 2031. However, it is expected that the negative drivers can increase the prevalence trend from 23.40% in 2018 to 19.57% in 2031, the positive drivers to 32.61%, and the combination of all drivers to 23.07%. CONCLUSION: It seems that measures such as the effective communication of policy makers, basic evaluation of the programs and policies related to the prevention of childhood obesity, and localization of the programs of international organizations for the prevention of obesity can greatly control the prevalence of childhood obesity.

What the policy and stewardship landscape of a national health research system looks like in a developing country like Iran: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The health research system (HRS) is an important national priority that requires a systematic and functional approach. Evaluating the HRS of Iran as a developing country and identifying its challenges reveals the stewardship-related role in how the whole system is operating well. This study aims to assess the HRS in terms of stewardship functions and highlight the enhancement points. METHODS: This study was carried out between March 2020 and April 2021 using a systematic review and meta-synthesis of evidence to examine the Iranian HRS stewardship challenges and interview 32 stakeholders, using a critical case sampling and snowballing approach which included both semi-structured and in-depth interviews. The interviewees were selected based on criteria covering policy-makers, managers, research bodies and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in health research-related fields like higher education, research, technology, innovation and science. All data were analysed using content analysis to determine eight main groups of findings under three levels: macro, meso, and micro. RESULTS: Analysis of the findings identified eight main themes. The most critical challenges were the lack of an integrated leadership model and a shared vision among different HRS stakeholders. Their scope and activities were often contradictory, and their role was not clarified in a predetermined big picture. The other challenges were legislation, priority-setting, monitoring and evaluation, networking, and using evidence as a decision support base. CONCLUSIONS: Stewardship functions are not appropriately performed and are considered the root causes of many other HRS challenges in Iran. Formulating a clear shared vision and a work scope for HRS actors is critical, along with integrating all efforts towards a unified strategy that assists in addressing many challenges of HRS, including developing strategic plans and future-oriented and systematic research, and evaluating performance. Policy-makers and senior managers need to embrace and use evidence, and effective networking and communication mechanisms among stakeholders need to be enhanced. An effective HRS can be achieved by redesigning the processes, regulations and rules to promote transparency and accountability within a well-organized and systematic framework.

Effective factors and drivers of Iran's health care financing system.

Background: Different factors affect Iran's health care financing system, and regardless of this impact, the future of this system will face fundamental challenges. In this environment, a health system is successful if it is able to anticipate the effects of these factors in the future of health care financing and preplan appropriate interventions towards health care financing system. The present study aims to identify these factors and trends. Methods: This study compiled a round view of the experts on the subject, with a future studies approach through a qualitative method. To collect data, a deep and semi-structured interview was performed. The results of the interviews were analyzed using content analysis method, and the primary and secondary themes were extracted using the Micmac software. Results: A total of 71 variables were identified in the form of 12 groups with titles of stewardship, service provision, resource gathering, purchasing and resource allocation, sociocultural, technological, environmental, economic, political, and managerial, and laws and values. Four variables, including distant-service provision, administrative bureaucracy, administrative focus and corruption, low-support decision-making, economic blockade, and sales of oil were among the influential factors and drivers. Conclusion: The findings showed Iran's financing system is relatively stable but fragile and 3 areas of technology, politics, and economics have the most impact on structuring Iran's financing system.

How do primary care providers work together in the Iranian PHC system?

Background: Providing coordinated services and forming appropriate cooperation among the members of the health team have a significant impact on other aspects of service provision, including accessibility and continuity of services. Methods: In this study information was obtained from a national study titled, "Evaluation of Primary Health Care in Iran", and framework analysis was conducted from the perspective of interprofessional cooperation status using the Amour model based on 5 underlying concepts of sharing, partnership, power, interdependency, and process. This is a mixed-method study of the transformative sequential type. In this study triangulation method was used, and data were collected by the Primary Care Evaluation Tool (PCET), interviewing experts and executive directors, and systematic review of the Primary Health Care (PHC) challenges in Iran. Results: The challenges of the PHC system in Iran are analyzed for providing coordinated care in the form of multidisciplinary teamwork based on the Amour model. The corresponding solutions for improving challenges of the concept are also presented. Conclusion: Based on the findings of this study the followings are suggested: sharing a collective specialized outlook; designing an integrated information system; improving the educational system through providing on-the-need academic education; strengthening the cooperation of community representatives and people's trustees in providing care; developing interdepartmental partnerships with related organizations with collective interests; moderating the workload of human resources; using electronic health records and automated referral of individuals in addition to appropriate training and promoting the culture from the existing philosophy of primary health care; highlighting the role of service providers as members of the care team; eliminating factors causing instability of suppliers, plans, and programs; and stability in the management approach despite changes in senior management.

The District Health Information System (DHIS2): A literature review and meta-synthesis of its strengths and operational challenges based on the experiences of 11 countries.

BACKGROUND: Health information systems offer many potential benefits for healthcare, including financial benefits and for improving the quality of patient care. The purpose of District Health Information Systems (DHIS) is to document data that are routinely collected in all public health facilities in a country using the system. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine the strengths and operational challenges of DHIS2, with a goal to enable decision makers in different counties to more accurately evaluate the outcomes of introducing DHIS2 into their particular country. METHOD: A review of the literature combined with the method of meta-synthesis was used to source information and interpret results relating to the strengths and operational challenges of DHIS2. Databases (Embase, PubMed, Scopus and Google Scholar) were searched for documents related to strengths and operational challenges of DHIS2, with no time limit up to 8 April 2017. The review and evaluation of selected studies was conducted in three stages: title, abstract and full text. Each of the selected studies was reviewed carefully and key concepts extracted. These key concepts were divided into two categories of strengths and operational challenges of DHIS2. Then, each category was grouped based on conceptual similarity to achieve the main themes and sub-themes. Content analysis was used to analyse extracted data. RESULTS: Of 766 identified citations, 20 studies from 11 countries were included and analysed in this study. Identified strengths in the DHIS were represented in seven themes (with 21 categories): technical features of software, proper management of data, application flexibility, networking and increasing the satisfaction of stakeholders, development of data management, increasing access to information and economic benefits. Operational challenges were identified and captured in 11 themes (with 18 categories): funds; appropriate communication infrastructure; the need for the existence of appropriate data; political, cultural, social and structural infrastructure; manpower; senior managers; training; using academic potentials; definition and standardising the deployment processes; neglect to application of criteria and clinical guidelines in the use of system; data security; stakeholder communications challenges and the necessity to establish a pilot system. CONCLUSION: This study highlighted specific strengths in the technical and functional aspects of DHIS2 and also drew attention to particular challenges and concerns. These results provide a sound evidence base for decision makers and policymakers to enable them to make more accurate decisions about whether or not to use the DHIS2 in the health system of their country.

An Investigation of Prescription Indicators and Trends Among General Practitioners and Specialists From 2005 to 2015 in Kerman, Iran.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) aims to promote strategies that ensure efficacy, safety, suitability, and cost-effectiveness of medicine prescription. Health systems should design effective mechanisms to monitor prescription and rational use of medicines at all healthcare settings. This study aimed to determine and analyze prescription patterns of general practitioners and specialists in Kerman/Iran from 2005 to 2015. METHODS: This is an explanatory mixed method study. Data were gathered during two phases. At the first phase, prescriptions issued by physicians during 2005-2015 were reviewed to extract information required to develop eight main prescription indicators. In the second phase, the indicators trends were presented to experts participating in expert panel to have their opinions and analyses on the data obtained in the first phase. Experts were selected based on their experience and expertise in medicine and/or health policy and/or experience in implementation of polices to promote rational use of medicines. Some experts attending the panel were a sample of physicians whose prescriptions were included in the first phase. RESULTS: Findings revealed that two indicators of the average price of prescriptions and the maximum number of medicines in each prescription had an increasing trend over the study period. Reasons including unprecedented devaluation of the Iranian Rial and willingness of young physicians to prescribe more medications were proposed as the primary contributors to the observed increasing trends. However, other indicators including types of prescribed medicines, average number of medicines per prescription, the percentage of prescriptions with more than four medications, a percentage of encounters with a corticosteroid prescribed, a percentage of encounters with an antibiotic prescribed, and a percentage of encounters with an injection prescribed decreased in the study period. Reasons of controlling initiatives adopted by the Ministry of Health, the higher responsibility of physicians, adoption of continued medical education (CME) programs, and improved knowledge of pharmacists, physicians, and patients about irrational use of medicines were proposed by participants as the main reasons for the decreasing trend. CONCLUSION: Findings indicated that prescription indicators were better in Kerman than those of country average over the study period based on comparing the results of this study and others in Iran. However, they were non-desirable when compared to the international average. The number of factors contributes to the irrational use of medicines, including lack of knowledge among healthcare providers and patients, patients' misunderstanding about the efficacy of some particular medicines, the high cost of drug development and manufacturing, and unavailability of effective medicines.

Appropriate types of futures studies scenarios in health.

Background: Scenario is the primary method in futures studies, and thus its improper use can undermine the credibility and claims of the results. There are many scenario types, and here we aimed at understanding whether these scenarios are being used properly in the health field. Methods: In this study, a combination method was used in 3 phases, and 8 + 2 steps were considered to accommodate the needs of the health sector with capabilities of the main types of scenarios. One of the appropriate methods of futures studies was used at each step. Results: Scenario planning has evolved along with futures studies paradigms. Trend-based scenarios, intuitive logic, and structural analysis approaches have had the most use in futures scenarios and health section. Quantitative techniques, which are close to the positivist paradigm, have been most widely used; however, participatory methods of futures studies paradigm have been used the least in the health sector. Conclusions: Health scenario writing in its current state is targeting short- to medium- term futures and does not respond to all requirements. Thus, other backup methods should also be considered.