Competing risks and multivariate outcomes in epidemiological and clinical trial research.

Data analysis methods for the study of treatments or exposures in relation to a clinical outcome in the presence of competing risks have a long history, often with inference targets that are hypothetical, thereby requiring strong assumptions for identifiability with available data. Here data analysis methods are considered that are based on single and higher dimensional marginal hazard rates, quantities that are identifiable under standard independent censoring assumptions. These lead naturally to joint survival function estimators for outcomes of interest, including competing risk outcomes, and provide the basis for addressing a variety of data analysis questions. These methods will be illustrated using simulations and Women's Health Initiative cohort and clinical trial data sets, and additional research needs will be described.

The renin-angiotensin aldosterone system and osteoporosis: findings from the Women's Health Initiative.

New users of RAAS inhibitors, including ACE inhibitors and ARBs, have a small increased risk for fracture in the first 3 years of use, with a reduced risk of fracture with longer duration of use. INTRODUCTION: Pharmacological inhibitors of the renin-angiotensin aldosterone system (RAAS) are used to treat hypertension. However, the relationship of these medications to osteoporosis is inconsistent, and no study has included simultaneous measurements of both incident fractures and bone mineral density (BMD). METHODS: The association of RAAS inhibitor use (n = 131,793) with incident fractures in new users of these medications in women in the Women's Health Initiative over a minimum median follow-up of 6.5 years was assessed by Cox proportional hazard models. The association of incident fractures by a cumulative duration of use of these medications (< 3 years.) and (> 3 years.) was also estimated. Subgroup analysis of fracture risk by RAAS inhibitor use confined to women with hypertension was also performed (n = 33,820). The association of RAAS inhibitor use with changes in BMD of the hip was estimated by linear regression in 8940 women with dual energy X-ray absorptiometry measurements. RESULTS: There was no significant association between RAAS inhibitor use and all fractures in the final adjusted multivariable models including hip BMD (HR 0.86 (0.59, 1.24)). However, among users of RAAS inhibitors, including ACE inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), hazard ratios for all incident fracture sites in final multivariable models including hip BMD showed dramatic differences by duration of use, with short duration of use (3 years or less) associated with a marked increased risk for fracture (HR 3.28 (1.66, 6.48)) to (HR 6.23 (3.11, 12.46)) and use for more than 3 years associated with a reduced fracture risk (HR 0.40 (0.24, 0.68) to (HR 0.44 (0.20, 0.97)) . Findings were similar in the subgroup of women with a history of hypertension. There was no significant change in BMD of the hip by RAAS inhibitor use. CONCLUSIONS: In postmenopausal women, use of RAAS inhibitors, including ACE inhibitors and ARBs, is associated with an increased risk for fracture among new users of these medications in the first 3 years of use. However, long-term use (> 3 years) is associated with a reduced risk. Consideration for fracture risk may be part of the decision-making process for initiation of these medications for other disease states.

Vitamin B6 catabolism and lung cancer risk: results from the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3).

BACKGROUND: Increased vitamin B6 catabolism related to inflammation, as measured by the PAr index (the ratio of 4-pyridoxic acid over the sum of pyridoxal and pyridoxal-5'-phosphate), has been positively associated with lung cancer risk in two prospective European studies. However, the extent to which this association translates to more diverse populations is not known. MATERIALS AND METHODS: For this study, we included 5323 incident lung cancer cases and 5323 controls individually matched by age, sex, and smoking status within each of 20 prospective cohorts from the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium. Cohort-specific odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between PAr and lung cancer risk were calculated using conditional logistic regression and pooled using random-effects models. RESULTS: PAr was positively associated with lung cancer risk in a dose-response fashion. Comparing the fourth versus first quartiles of PAr resulted in an OR of 1.38 (95% CI: 1.19-1.59) for overall lung cancer risk. The association between PAr and lung cancer risk was most prominent in former smokers (OR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.36-2.10), men (OR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.28-2.00), and for cancers diagnosed within 3 years of blood draw (OR: 1.73, 95% CI: 1.34-2.23). CONCLUSION: Based on pre-diagnostic data from 20 cohorts across 4 continents, this study confirms that increased vitamin B6 catabolism related to inflammation and immune activation is associated with a higher risk of developing lung cancer. Moreover, PAr may be a pre-diagnostic marker of lung cancer rather than a causal factor.

No association between circulating concentrations of vitamin D and risk of lung cancer: an analysis in 20 prospective studies in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3).

Background: There is observational evidence suggesting that high vitamin D concentrations may protect against lung cancer. To investigate this hypothesis in detail, we measured circulating vitamin D concentrations in prediagnostic blood from 20 cohorts participating in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3). Patients and methods: The study included 5313 lung cancer cases and 5313 controls. Blood samples for the cases were collected, on average, 5 years before lung cancer diagnosis. Controls were individually matched to the cases by cohort, sex, age, race/ethnicity, date of blood collection, and smoking status in five categories. Liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry was used to separately analyze 25-hydroxyvitamin D2 [25(OH)D2] and 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 [25(OH)D3] and their concentrations were combined to give an overall measure of 25(OH)D. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 25(OH)D as both continuous and categorical variables. Results: Overall, no apparent association between 25(OH)D and risk of lung cancer was observed (multivariable adjusted OR for a doubling in concentration: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.91, 1.06). Similarly, we found no clear evidence of interaction by cohort, sex, age, smoking status, or histology. Conclusion: This study did not support an association between vitamin D concentrations and lung cancer risk.

Higher Dimensional Clayton-Oakes Models for Multivariate Failure Time Data.

The Clayton-Oakes bivariate failure time model is extended to dimensions m > 2 in a manner that allows unspecified marginal survivor functions for all dimensions less than m. Special cases that allow unspecified marginal survivor functions of dimension q with q < m, while making some provisions for dependencies of dimension greater than q, are also described.

Reliable evidence from placebo-controlled, randomized, clinical trials for menopausal hormone therapy's influence on incidence and deaths from breast cancer.

In an invited editorial, Dr Shapiro proposes that vaginal bleeding leading to unblinding and subsequent detection bias explains the breast cancer increase seen with estrogen plus progestin in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) clinical trial (1) . In the context of a uniform detection program of protocol-mandated annual mammography and breast examinations, such a proposal is medically implausible. Dr Shapiro suggests detection bias would identify a larger number of 'slowly growing tumors that would otherwise remain clinically silent'. The findings of more advanced cancers with increased deaths from breast cancer in the estrogen plus progestin group refute this conjecture. During early post-intervention phases of both WHI hormone therapy trials, when breast cancer detection bias is asserted by Dr Shapiro because participants had been informed of randomization assignment, breast cancer incidence rates were lower (rather than higher) than during intervention. Thus, Dr Shapiro's claims are directly refuted by findings from the WHI randomized clinical trials. Health-care providers should be aware that randomized clinical trial evidence supports estrogen plus progestin increasing breast cancer incidence and deaths from breast cancer. In contrast, among women with prior hysterectomy, randomized clinical trial evidence supports estrogen alone reducing breast cancer incidence and deaths from breast cancer.

Self-Consistent Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimator of the Bivariate Survivor Function.

As usually formulated the nonparametric likelihood for the bivariate survivor function is over-parameterized, resulting in uniqueness problems for the corresponding nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator. Here the estimation problem is redefined to include parameters for marginal hazard rates, and for double failure hazard rates only at informative uncensored failure time grid points where there is pertinent empirical information. Double failure hazard rates at other grid points in the risk region are specified rather than estimated. With this approach the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator is unique, and can be calculated using a two-step procedure. The first step involves setting aside all doubly censored observations that are interior to the risk region. The nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator from the remaining data turns out to be the Dabrowska (1988) estimator. The omitted doubly censored observations are included in the procedure in the second stage using self-consistency, resulting in a non-iterative nonpara-metric maximum likelihood estimator for the bivariate survivor function. Simulation evaluation and asymptotic distributional results are provided. Moderate sample size efficiency for the survivor function nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator is similar to that for the Dabrowska estimator as applied to the entire dataset, while some useful efficiency improvement arises for corresponding distribution function estimator, presumably due to the avoidance of negative mass assignments.

Association between C677T polymorphism of methylene tetrahydrofolate reductase and congenital heart disease: meta-analysis of 7697 cases and 13,125 controls.

BACKGROUND: Association between the C677T polymorphism of the methylene tetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene and congenital heart disease (CHD) is contentious. METHODS AND RESULTS: We compared genotypes between CHD cases and controls and between mothers of CHD cases and controls. We placed our results in context by conducting meta-analyses of previously published studies. Among 5814 cases with primary genotype data and 10 056 controls, there was no evidence of association between MTHFR C677T genotype and CHD risk (odds ratio [OR], 0.96 [95% confidence interval, 0.87-1.07]). A random-effects meta-analysis of all studies (involving 7697 cases and 13 125 controls) suggested the presence of association (OR, 1.25 [95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.51]; P=0.022) but with substantial heterogeneity among contributing studies (I(2)=64.4%) and evidence of publication bias. Meta-analysis of large studies only (defined by a variance of the log OR <0.05), which together contributed 83% of all cases, yielded no evidence of association (OR, 0.97 [95% confidence interval, 0.91-1.03]) without significant heterogeneity (I(2)=0). Moreover, meta-analysis of 1781 mothers of CHD cases (829 of whom were genotyped in this study) and 19 861 controls revealed no evidence of association between maternal C677T genotype and risk of CHD in offspring (OR, 1.13 [95% confidence interval, 0.87-1.47]). There was no significant association between MTHFR genotype and CHD risk in large studies from regions with different levels of dietary folate. CONCLUSIONS: The MTHFR C677T polymorphism, which directly influences plasma folate levels, is not associated with CHD risk. Publication biases appear to substantially contaminate the literature with regard to this genetic association.

Health risks and benefits from calcium and vitamin D supplementation: Women's Health Initiative clinical trial and cohort study.

SUMMARY: The Women's Health Initiative (WHI) double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial randomly assigned 36,282 postmenopausal women in the U.S. to 1,000 mg elemental calcium carbonate plus 400 IU of vitamin D(3) daily or placebo, with average intervention period of 7.0 years. The trial was designed to test whether calcium plus vitamin D supplementation in a population in which the use of these supplements was widespread would reduce hip fracture, and secondarily, total fracture and colorectal cancer. INTRODUCTION: This study further examines the health benefits and risks of calcium and vitamin D supplementation using WHI data, with emphasis on fractures, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and total mortality. METHODS: WHI calcium and vitamin D randomized clinical trial (CT) data through the end of the intervention period were further analyzed with emphasis on treatment effects in relation to duration of supplementation, and these data were contrasted and combined with corresponding data from the WHI prospective observational study (OS). RESULTS: Among women not taking personal calcium or vitamin D supplements at baseline, the hazard ratio [HR] for hip fracture occurrence in the CT following 5 or more years of calcium and vitamin D supplementation versus placebo was 0.62 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.38-1.00). In combined analyses of CT and OS data, the corresponding HR was 0.65 (95 % CI, 0.44-0.98). Supplementation effects were not apparent on the risks of myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, total heart disease, stroke, overall cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, or total mortality, while evidence for a reduction in breast cancer risk and total invasive cancer risk among calcium plus vitamin D users was only suggestive. CONCLUSION: Though based primarily on a subset analysis, long-term use of calcium and vitamin D appears to confer a reduction that may be substantial in the risk of hip fracture among postmenopausal women. Other health benefits and risks of supplementation at doses considered, including an elevation in urinary tract stone formation, appear to be modest and approximately balanced.

Successful perioperative management of a patient with C1 esterase inhibitor deficiency with a novel bradykinin receptor B2 antagonist.

We present the case of a 28-year-old female with a previous diagnosis of C1 esterase inhibitor deficiency presenting for dental extractions under general anaesthesia. Following prophylaxis with a new bradykinin receptor 2 antagonist (icatibant), surgery was carried out uneventfully with an unremarkable postoperative course.

Disruption of the folate pathway in zebrafish causes developmental defects.

BACKGROUND: Folic acid supplementation reduces the risk of neural tube defects and congenital heart defects. The biological mechanisms through which folate prevents birth defects are not well understood. We explore the use of zebrafish as a model system to investigate the role of folate metabolism during development. RESULTS: We first identified zebrafish orthologs of 12 human folate metabolic genes. RT-PCR and in situ analysis indicated maternal transcripts supply the embryo with mRNA so that the embryo has an intact folate pathway. To perturb folate metabolism we exposed zebrafish embryos to methotrexate (MTX), a potent inhibitor of dihydrofolate reductase (Dhfr) an essential enzyme in the folate metabolic pathway. Embryos exposed to high doses of MTX exhibited developmental arrest prior to early segmentation. Lower doses of MTX resulted in embryos with a shortened anterior-posterior axis and cardiac defects: linear heart tubes or incomplete cardiac looping. Inhibition of dhfr mRNA with antisense morpholino oligonucleotides resulted in embryonic lethality. One function of the folate pathway is to provide essential one-carbon units for dTMP synthesis, a rate-limiting step of DNA synthesis. After 24 hours of exposure to high levels of MTX, mutant embryos continue to incorporate the thymidine analog BrdU. However, additional experiments indicate that these embryos have fewer mitotic cells, as assayed with phospho-histone H3 antibodies, and that treated embryos have perturbed cell cycles. CONCLUSIONS: Our studies demonstrate that human and zebrafish utilize similar one-carbon pathways. Our data indicate that folate metabolism is essential for early zebrafish development. Zebrafish studies of the folate pathway and its deficiencies could provide insight into the underlying etiology of human birth defects and the natural role of folate in development.

Colovaginal and colovesical fistulae: the diagnostic paradigm.

BACKGROUND: Colovaginal and colovesical fistulae (CVF) are relatively uncommon conditions, most frequently resulting from diverticular disease or colorectal cancer. A high suspicion of a CVF can usually be obtained from an accurate clinical history. Demonstrating CVF radiologically is often challenging, and patients frequently undergo a multitude of investigations prior to definitive management. The aim of this study was to develop an algorithm for the investigation of suspected CVF in order to improve diagnosis and subsequent management. METHODS: Thirty-seven patients from a single NHS Trust with a diagnosis of colovaginal or colovesical fistula were included in the study. Clinical records and imaging were reviewed retrospectively, and data on demographics, symptoms, investigations, management and outcome were collated. RESULTS: A total of 87.5% patients with a colovesical fistula presented with pathognomic symptoms of faecaluria or pneumaturia. The commonest aetiologies were diverticular disease (72.9%), colonic and gynaecological neoplasia (10.8% each). Computerised tomography (CT) was the most frequently performed investigation (91.9%) and was most sensitive in detecting the fistula (76.5%) and underlying aetiology (94.1%). Colonoscopy was most sensitive in detecting an underlying colonic malignancy (100%). Resectional surgery was performed in 62.1% of cases, although morbidity and 1-year mortality was significant, with rates of 21.7 and 17.4%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnosis of CVF is predominately a clinical one, and patients with a suspected CVF are over-investigated. Investigations should be focused on determining aetiology rather than demonstrating the fistulous tract itself. We propose that, in the majority of cases, CT and lower gastrointestinal endoscopy should suffice.

Assessment of neuroimaging techniques as biomarkers of the progression of Parkinson's disease.

A major goal of research in Parkinson's disease (PD) has been the development of treatments to slow the progressive degeneration of the nigrostriatal dopaminergic system and to reduce the functional decline of patients. Because of the uncertainty in the ability of the clinical evaluation to reflect the status of the nigrostriatal dopaminergic system once dopaminergic therapy has commenced, investigators in PD have sought to develop alternative measures of disease. One approach, which has been extensively explored, is neuroimaging with radiotracers that interact with processes central to dopaminergic neurotransmission in the nigrostriatal dopaminergic axons-conversion of levodopa to dopamine through aromatic amino acid decarboxylase (AADC), [(18)F]fluorodopa PET, storage of dopamine in synaptic vesicles via the vesicular monoamine transporter 2 (VMAT2), (+)-[(11)C]dihydrotetrabenazine PET, and reuptake of dopamine into axons via the dopamine transporter (DAT), [(123)I]beta-CIT SPECT, and a number of other PET and SPECT ligands. During the 54(th) Annual Meeting of the American Academy of Neurology, a group of investigators active in the fields of biomakers, neuroimaging, and neuroprotection met to review the three techniques mentioned above. Prior to the meeting, the participants developed consensus on a set of 10 criteria for a neuroimaging technique to be considered adequate as a biomarker for progression of PD and levels at which the available data for each technique indicate that the criterion was met. The criteria and each of the three imaging techniques mentioned above were reviewed, and the results of that meeting are presented.

Considerations in the evaluation of surrogate endpoints in clinical trials. summary of a National Institutes of Health workshop.

We report on recommendations from a National Institutes of Health Workshop on methods for evaluating the use of surrogate endpoints in clinical trials, which was attended by experts in biostatistics and clinical trials from a broad array of disease areas. Recent advances in biosciences and technology have increased the ability to understand, measure, and model biological mechanisms; appropriate application of these advances in clinical research settings requires collaboration of quantitative and laboratory scientists. Biomarkers, new examples of which arise rapidly from new technologies, are used frequently in such areas as early detection of disease and identification of patients most likely to benefit from new therapies. There is also scientific interest in exploring whether, and under what conditions, biomarkers may substitute for clinical endpoints of phase III trials, although workshop participants agreed that these considerations apply primarily to situations where trials using clinical endpoints are not feasible. Evaluating candidate biomarkers in the exploratory phases of drug development and investigating surrogate endpoints in confirmatory trials require the establishment of a statistical and inferential framework. As a first step, participants reviewed methods for investigating the degree to which biomarkers can explain or predict the effect of treatments on clinical endpoints measured in clinical trials. They also suggested new approaches appropriate in settings where biomarkers reflect only indirectly the important processes on the causal path to clinical disease and where biomarker measurement errors are of concern. Participants emphasized the need for further research on development of such models, whether they are empirical in nature or attempt to describe mechanisms in mathematical terms. Of special interest were meta-analytic models for combining information from multiple studies involving interventions for the same condition. Recommendations also included considerations for design and conduct of trials and for assemblage of databases needed for such research. Finally, there was a strong recommendation for increased training of quantitative scientists in biologic research as well as in statistical methods and modeling to ensure that there will be an adequate workforce to meet future research needs.

Indirect calorimetry protocol development for measuring resting metabolic rate as a component of total energy expenditure in free-living postmenopausal women.

An objective measure of energy intake is needed in epidemiologic studies to evaluate random and systematic error associated with dietary self-report tools. Total energy expenditure in weight-stable humans is accepted as a measure of energy intake, but doubly labeled water remains cost prohibitive for large studies. Our purpose was to develop a practical indirect calorimetry (IC) protocol for estimating resting metabolic rate (RMR) in free-living, postmenopausal women. We conducted duplicate IC measures 1 wk apart using a canopy system on 102 women ages 50-79 y from the Seattle area. We compared RMR for 0-5, 5-10, 5-15, 5-20, 5-25, 5-30, and 0- to 30-min IC segments and segments meeting stability criteria. The mean RMR for the first 5 min was significantly higher than other time segments (P = 0.001). Correlation coefficients between duplicate measures were high (r = 0.90). Use of defined stability criteria produced RMR measures that were 10-30 kcal (42-126 kJ) higher than the 5- to 10-min RMR measures and 40-60% of subjects did not achieve these stability criteria. For protocols including IC to assess RMR as a component of total energy expenditure in free-living, postmenopausal women, a single 10-min canopy study, excluding the first 5 min of data, produces reliable results with minimal subject burden.

Statistical modeling of large microarray data sets to identify stimulus-response profiles.

A statistical modeling approach is proposed for use in searching large microarray data sets for genes that have a transcriptional response to a stimulus. The approach is unrestricted with respect to the timing, magnitude or duration of the response, or the overall abundance of the transcript. The statistical model makes an accommodation for systematic heterogeneity in expression levels. Corresponding data analyses provide gene-specific information, and the approach provides a means for evaluating the statistical significance of such information. To illustrate this strategy we have derived a model to depict the profile expected for a periodically transcribed gene and used it to look for budding yeast transcripts that adhere to this profile. Using objective criteria, this method identifies 81% of the known periodic transcripts and 1,088 genes, which show significant periodicity in at least one of the three data sets analyzed. However, only one-quarter of these genes show significant oscillations in at least two data sets and can be classified as periodic with high confidence. The method provides estimates of the mean activation and deactivation times, induced and basal expression levels, and statistical measures of the precision of these estimates for each periodic transcript.

Methodologic challenges in chronic disease population research.

Some recent important, and controversial, chronic disease population research settings are reviewed. These include studies of hormone replacement therapy and coronary heart disease; studies of dietary fat in relation to breast cancer; and studies of beta-carotene supplementation and lung cancer. In each case methodologic developments having a strong biostatistical component are identified as key to future progress. Some comments are also made on the need for an expanded disease prevention intervention development enterprise, and on the role that microarray genetic and genomic data may play in such development.