Optimizing Disease Outbreak Forecast Ensembles.

On the basis of historical influenza and COVID-19 forecasts, we found that more than 3 forecast models are needed to ensure robust ensemble accuracy. Additional models can improve ensemble performance, but with diminishing accuracy returns. This understanding will assist with the design of current and future collaborative infectious disease forecasting efforts.

Loss of the alpha subunit distal furin cleavage site blunts ENaC activation following Na+ restriction.

Epithelial Na+ channels (ENaCs) are activated by proteolysis of the α and γ subunits at specific sites flanking embedded inhibitory tracts. To examine the role of α subunit proteolysis in channel activation in vivo, we generated mice lacking the distal furin cleavage site in the α subunit (αF2M mice). On a normal Na+ control diet, no differences in ENaC protein abundance in kidney or distal colon were noted between wild-type (WT) and αF2M mice. Patch-clamp analyses revealed similar levels of ENaC activity in kidney tubules, while no physiologically relevant differences in blood chemistry or aldosterone levels were detected. Male αF2M mice did exhibit diminished ENaC activity in the distal colon, as measured by amiloride-sensitive short-circuit current (ISC). Following dietary Na+ restriction, WT and αF2M mice had similar natriuretic and colonic ISC responses to amiloride. However, single-channel activity was significantly lower in kidney tubules from Na+-restricted αF2M mice compared with WT littermates. ENaC α and γ subunit expression in kidney and distal colon were also enhanced in Na+-restricted αF2M vs. WT mice, in association with higher aldosterone levels. These data provide evidence that disrupting α subunit proteolysis impairs ENaC activity in vivo, requiring compensation in response to Na+ restriction. KEY POINTS: The epithelial Na+ channel (ENaC) is activated by proteolytic cleavage in vitro, but key questions regarding the role of ENaC proteolysis in terms of whole-animal physiology remain to be addressed. We studied the in vivo importance of this mechanism by generating a mouse model with a genetic disruption to a key cleavage site in the ENaC's α subunit (αF2M mice). We found that αF2M mice did not exhibit a physiologically relevant phenotype under normal dietary conditions, but have impaired ENaC activation (channel open probability) in the kidney during salt restriction. ENaC function at the organ level was preserved in salt-restricted αF2M mice, but this was associated with higher aldosterone levels and increased expression of ENaC subunits, suggesting compensation was required to maintain homeostasis. These results provide the first evidence that ENaC α subunit proteolysis is a key regulator of channel activity in vivo.

hubEnsembles: Ensembling Methods in R.

Combining predictions from multiple models into an ensemble is a widely used practice across many fields with demonstrated performance benefits. The R package hubEnsembles provides a flexible framework for ensembling various types of predictions, including point estimates and probabilistic predictions. A range of common methods for generating ensembles are supported, including weighted averages, quantile averages, and linear pools. The hubEnsembles package fits within a broader framework of open-source software and data tools called the "hubverse", which facilitates the development and management of collaborative modelling exercises.

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

Influence of proteolytic cleavage of ENaC's γ subunit upon Na+ and K+ handling.

The epithelial Na+ channel (ENaC) γ subunit is essential for homeostasis of Na+, K+, and body fluid. Dual γ subunit cleavage before and after a short inhibitory tract allows dissociation of this tract, increasing channel open probability (PO), in vitro. Cleavage proximal to the tract occurs at a furin recognition sequence (143RKRR146, in the mouse γ subunit). Loss of furin-mediated cleavage prevents in vitro activation of the channel by proteolysis at distal sites. We hypothesized that 143RKRR146 mutation to 143QQQQ146 (γQ4) in 129/Sv mice would reduce ENaC PO, impair flow-stimulated flux of Na+ (JNa) and K+ (JK) in perfused collecting ducts, reduce colonic amiloride-sensitive short-circuit current (ISC), and impair Na+, K+, and body fluid homeostasis. Immunoblot of γQ4/Q4 mouse kidney lysates confirmed loss of a band consistent in size with the furin-cleaved proteolytic fragment. However, γQ4/Q4 male mice on a low Na+ diet did not exhibit altered ENaC PO or flow-induced JNa, though flow-induced JK modestly decreased. Colonic amiloride-sensitive ISC in γQ4/Q4 mice was not altered. γQ4/Q4 males, but not females, exhibited mildly impaired fluid volume conservation when challenged with a low Na+ diet. Blood Na+ and K+ were unchanged on a regular, low Na+, or high K+ diet. These findings suggest that biochemical evidence of γ subunit cleavage should not be used in isolation to evaluate ENaC activity. Furthermore, factors independent of γ subunit cleavage modulate channel PO and the influence of ENaC on Na+, K+, and fluid volume homeostasis in 129/Sv mice, in vivo.NEW & NOTEWORTHY The epithelial Na+ channel (ENaC) is activated in vitro by post-translational proteolysis. In vivo, low Na+ or high K+ diets enhance ENaC proteolysis, and proteolysis is hypothesized to contribute to channel activation in these settings. Using a mouse expressing ENaC with disruption of a key proteolytic cleavage site, this study demonstrates that impaired proteolytic activation of ENaC's γ subunit has little impact upon channel open probability or the ability of mice to adapt to low Na+ or high K+ diets.

Magnesium in hypertension: mechanisms and clinical implications.

Hypertension is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease and death. Evidence suggests that Mg2+ depletion contributes to hypertension. It is estimated that 25% or more of the United States population experiences chronic, latent Mg2+ depletion. This review explores mechanisms by which Mg2+ influences blood pressure, modifying risk of hypertension and complicating its treatment. Mechanisms addressed include effects upon i) sympathetic tone, via the modulation of N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor and N-type Ca2+ channel activity, influencing catecholamine release from sympathetic nerve endings; ii) vascular tone, via alteration of L-type Ca2+ and endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) activity and prostacyclin release; iii) renal K+ handling, influencing systemic K+ balance and potentially indirectly influencing blood pressure; iv) aldosterone secretion from the adrenal cortex; and v) modulation of pro-hypertensive inflammatory processes in dendritic cells and macrophages, including activation of the NLR family pyrin domain containing 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome and stimulation of isolevuglandin (IsoLG) production. Discovery of these mechanisms has furthered our understanding of the pathogenesis of hypertension, with implications for treatment and has highlighted the role of Mg2+ balance in hypertension and cardiovascular disease.

Proteolytic Cleavage of the ENaC γ Subunit - Impact Upon Na + and K + Handling.

The ENaC gamma subunit is essential for homeostasis of Na + , K + , and body fluid. Dual subunit cleavage before and after a short inhibitory tract allows dissociation of this tract, increasing channel open probability (P O ), in vitro . Cleavage proximal to the tract occurs at a furin recognition sequence ( 143 RKRR 146 in mouse). Loss of furin-mediated cleavage prevents in vitro activation of the channel by proteolysis at distal sites. We hypothesized that 143 RKRR 146 mutation to 143 QQQQ 146 ( Q4 ) in 129/Sv mice would reduce ENaC P O , impair flow-stimulated flux of Na + (J Na ) and K + (J K ) in perfused collecting ducts, reduce colonic amiloride-sensitive short circuit current (I SC ), and impair Na + , K + , and body fluid homeostasis. Immunoblot of Q4/Q4 mouse kidney lysates confirmed loss of a band consistent in size with the furin-cleaved proteolytic fragment. However, Q4/Q4 male mice on a low Na + diet did not exhibit altered ENaC P O or flow-induced J Na , though flow-induced J K modestly decreased. Colonic amiloride-sensitive I SC in Q4/Q4 mice was not altered. Q4/Q4 males, but not females, exhibited mildly impaired fluid volume conservation when challenged with a low Na + diet. Blood Na + and K + were unchanged on a regular, low Na + , or high K + diet. These findings suggest that biochemical evidence of gamma subunit cleavage should not be used in isolation to evaluate ENaC activity. Further, factors independent of gamma subunit cleavage modulate channel P O and the influence of ENaC on Na + , K + , and fluid volume homeostasis in 129/Sv mice, in vivo .

Assessing the utility of COVID-19 case reports as a leading indicator for hospitalization forecasting in the United States.

Identifying data streams that can consistently improve the accuracy of epidemiological forecasting models is challenging. Using models designed to predict daily state-level hospital admissions due to COVID-19 in California and Massachusetts, we investigated whether incorporating COVID-19 case data systematically improved forecast accuracy. Additionally, we considered whether using case data aggregated by date of test or by date of report from a surveillance system made a difference to the forecast accuracy. Evaluating forecast accuracy in a test period, after first having selected the best-performing methods in a validation period, we found that overall the difference in accuracy between approaches was small, especially at forecast horizons of less than two weeks. However, forecasts from models using cases aggregated by test date showed lower accuracy at longer horizons and at key moments in the pandemic, such as the peak of the Omicron wave in January 2022. Overall, these results highlight the challenge of finding a modeling approach that can generate accurate forecasts of outbreak trends both during periods of relative stability and during periods that show rapid growth or decay of transmission rates. While COVID-19 case counts seem to be a natural choice to help predict COVID-19 hospitalizations, in practice any benefits we observed were small and inconsistent.

Mice lacking γENaC palmitoylation sites maintain benzamil-sensitive Na+ transport despite reduced channel activity.

Epithelial Na+ channels (ENaCs) control extracellular fluid volume by facilitating Na+ absorption across transporting epithelia. In vitro studies showed that Cys-palmitoylation of the γENaC subunit is a major regulator of channel activity. We tested whether γ subunit palmitoylation sites are necessary for channel function in vivo by generating mice lacking the palmitoylated cysteines (γC33A,C41A) using CRISPR/Cas9 technology. ENaCs in dissected kidney tubules from γC33A,C41A mice had reduced open probability compared with wild-type (WT) littermates maintained on either standard or Na+-deficient diets. Male mutant mice also had higher aldosterone levels than WT littermates following Na+ restriction. However, γC33A,C41A mice did not have reduced amiloride-sensitive Na+ currents in the distal colon or benzamil-induced natriuresis compared to WT mice. We identified a second, larger conductance cation channel in the distal nephron with biophysical properties distinct from ENaC. The activity of this channel was higher in Na+-restricted γC33A,C41A versus WT mice and was blocked by benzamil, providing a possible compensatory mechanism for reduced prototypic ENaC function. We conclude that γ subunit palmitoylation sites are required for prototypic ENaC activity in vivo but are not necessary for amiloride/benzamil-sensitive Na+ transport in the distal nephron or colon.

Comparison of combination methods to create calibrated ensemble forecasts for seasonal influenza in the U.S.

The characteristics of influenza seasons vary substantially from year to year, posing challenges for public health preparation and response. Influenza forecasting is used to inform seasonal outbreak response, which can in turn potentially reduce the impact of an epidemic. The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in collaboration with external researchers, has run an annual prospective influenza forecasting exercise, known as the FluSight challenge. Uniting theoretical results from the forecasting literature with domain-specific forecasts from influenza outbreaks, we applied parametric forecast combination methods that simultaneously optimize model weights and calibrate the ensemble via a beta transformation and made adjustments to the methods to reduce their complexity. We used the beta-transformed linear pool, the finite beta mixture model, and their equal weight adaptations to produce ensemble forecasts retrospectively for the 2016/2017, 2017/2018, and 2018/2019 influenza seasons in the U.S. We compared their performance to methods that were used in the FluSight challenge to produce the FluSight Network ensemble, namely the equally weighted linear pool and the linear pool. Ensemble forecasts produced from methods with a beta transformation were shown to outperform those from the equally weighted linear pool and the linear pool for all week-ahead targets across in the test seasons based on average log scores. We observed improvements in overall accuracy despite the beta-transformed linear pool or beta mixture methods' modest under-prediction across all targets and seasons. Combination techniques that explicitly adjust for known calibration issues in linear pooling should be considered to improve probabilistic scores in outbreak settings.