Powers of the likelihood ratio test and the correlation test using empirical bayes estimates for various shrinkages in population pharmacokinetics.

We compared the powers of the likelihood ratio test (LRT) and the Pearson correlation test (CT) from empirical Bayes estimates (EBEs) for various designs and shrinkages in the context of nonlinear mixed-effect modeling. Clinical trial simulation was performed with a simple pharmacokinetic model with various weight (WT) effects on volume (V). Data sets were analyzed with NONMEM 7.2 using first-order conditional estimation with interaction and stochastic approximation expectation maximization algorithms. The powers of LRT and CT in detecting the link between individual WT and V or clearance were computed to explore hidden or induced correlations, respectively. Although the different designs and variabilities could be related to the large shrinkage of the EBEs, type 1 errors and powers were similar in LRT and CT in all cases. Power was mostly influenced by covariate effect size and, to a lesser extent, by the informativeness of the design. Further studies with more models are needed.

Modeling Alzheimer's Disease Progression Using Disease Onset Time and Disease Trajectory Concepts Applied to CDR-SOB Scores From ADNI.

Disease-onset time (DOT) and disease trajectory concepts were applied to derive an Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression population model using the clinical dementia rating scale-sum of boxes (CDR-SOB) from the AD neuroimaging initiative (ADNI) database. The model enabled the estimation of a DOT and a disease trajectory for each patient. The model also allowed distinguishing fast and slow-progressing subpopulations according to the functional assessment questionnaire, normalized hippocampal volume, and CDR-SOB score at study entry. On the basis of these prognostic factors, 81% of the mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects could correctly be assigned to slow or fast progressers, and 77% of MCI to AD conversions could be predicted whereas the model described correctly 84% of the conversions. Finally, synchronization of the biomarker-time profiles on estimated individual DOT virtually expanded the population observation period from 3 to 8 years. DOT-disease trajectory model is a powerful approach that could be applied to many progressive diseases.CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology (2013) 2, e78; doi:10.1038/psp.2013.54; advance online publication 2 October 2013.

Joint population pharmacokinetic analysis of zidovudine, lamivudine, and their active intracellular metabolites in HIV patients.

The population pharmacokinetic parameters of zidovudine (AZT), lamivudine (3TC), and their active intracellular metabolites in 75 naïve HIV-infected patients receiving an oral combination of AZT and 3TC twice daily as part of their multitherapy treatment in the COPHAR2-ANRS 111 trial are described. Four blood samples per patient were taken after 2 weeks of treatment to measure drug concentrations at steady state. Plasma AZT and 3TC concentrations were measured in 73 patients, and among those, 62 patients had measurable intracellular AZT-TP and 3TC-TP concentrations. For each drug, a joint population pharmacokinetic model was developed and we investigated the influence of different covariates. We then studied correlations between the mean plasma and intracellular concentrations of each drug. A one-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination best described the plasma AZT concentration, with an additional compartment for intracellular AZT-TP. A similar model but with zero-order absorption was found to adequately described concentrations of 3TC and its metabolite 3TC-TP. The half-lives of AZT and 3TC were 0.81 h (94.8%) and 2.97 h (39.2%), respectively, whereas the intracellular half-lives of AZT-TP and 3TC-TP were 10.73 h (69%) and 21.16 h (44%), respectively. We found particularly a gender effect on the apparent bioavailability of AZT, as well as on the mean plasma and intracellular concentrations of AZT, which were significantly higher in females than in males. Relationships between mean plasma drug and intracellular metabolite concentrations were also highlighted both for AZT and for 3TC. Simulation with the model of plasma and intracellular concentrations for once- versus twice-daily regimens suggested that a daily dosing regimen with double doses could be appropriate.

Cough reflex sensitivity after elective Caesarean section under spinal anaesthesia and after vaginal delivery.

BACKGROUND: In pregnancy, airway oedema and heartburn may increase cough sensitivity, whereas spinal anaesthesia (SA) with local anaesthetics and opiates may decrease it. Decreased cough sensitivity increases the risk for pneumonia or retained secretions. The aim of this study was to determine whether cough sensitivity is increased in pregnant patients and if it is decreased after planned Caesarean section (CS) under SA. METHODS: Twenty-seven non-pregnant volunteers, 27 patients after vaginal delivery (VD group), and 28 patients after CS under SA (CS group) were studied. For SA, hyperbaric bupivacaine 8-12 mg, sufentanil 5 microg, and morphine 100 microg was given. Increasing concentrations of nebulized citric acid were delivered until eliciting cough. The concentration eliciting one (C1) and two coughs (C2) were recorded and log transformed for analysis (log C1 and log C2). RESULTS: Median (inter-quartile) log C1 was 1.3 (0.6) mg ml(-1) in the VD group, 1.6 (0.6) mg ml(-1) in the non-pregnant group (P < 0.01 vs VD group), and 2.2 (0.7) mg ml(-1) in the CS group (P < 0.0001 and P < 0.01 vs VD and non-pregnant groups, respectively). Similar results were observed with log C2. In CS group, log C1 and log C2 remained increased up to 4 h after SA. CONCLUSIONS: Cough sensitivity was increased after VD but decreased for up to 4 h after SA.

Development and implementation of the population Fisher information matrix for the evaluation of population pharmacokinetic designs.

In population pharmacokinetic studies, the precision of parameter estimates is dependent on the population design. Methods based on the Fisher information matrix have been developed and extended to population studies to evaluate and optimize designs. In this paper we propose simple programming tools to evaluate population pharmacokinetic designs. This involved the development of an expression for the Fisher information matrix for nonlinear mixed-effects models, including estimation of the variance of the residual error. We implemented this expression as a generic function for two software applications: S-PLUS and MATLAB. The evaluation of population designs based on two pharmacokinetic examples from the literature is shown to illustrate the efficiency and the simplicity of this theoretic approach. Although no optimization method of the design is provided, these functions can be used to select and compare population designs among a large set of possible designs, avoiding a lot of simulations.