Optimal Treatment Strategies for cT2 Staged Adenocarcinoma of the Esophagus and the Gastroesophageal Junction: A Multinational, High-volume Center Retrospective Cohort Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: A multi-national high-volume center study was undertaken to evaluate outcomes after primary surgery (PS) or neoadjuvant treatment followed by surgery (NAT/S) in cT2 staged adenocarcinomas of the esophagus (EAC) and gastroesophageal junction (GEJ). BACKGROUND: Optimal treatment approach with either NAT/S or PS for clinically staged cT2cNany or cT2N0 EAC and GEJ remains unknown due to the lack of randomized controlled trials. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of prospectively maintained databases from ten centers was performed. Between 01/2012-08/2023 645 patients who fulfilled inclusion criteria of GEJ Siewert type I, II or EAC with cT2 status at diagnosis underwent PS or NAT/S with curative intent. Primary endpoint was overall survival (OS). RESULTS: In the cT2cNany cohort 192 patients (29.8%) underwent PS and 453 (70.2%) underwent NAT/S. In all cT2cN0 patients (n=333), NAT/s remained the more frequent treatment (56.2%). Patients undergoing PS were in both cT2 cohorts older (P<0.001) and had a higher ASA classification (P<0.05). R0 resection showed no differences between NAT/S and PS in both cT2 cohorts (P>0.4).Median OS was 51.0 months in the PS group (95% CI 31.6-70.4) versus 114.0 months (95% CI 53.9-174.1) in the NAT/S group (P=0.003) of cT2cNany patients. For cT2cN0 patients NAT/S was associated with longer OS (P=0.002) and disease-free survival (DFS) (P=0.001). After propensity score matching of cT2N0 patients, survival benefit for NAT/S remained (P=0.004). Histopathology showed that 38.1% of cT2cNany and 34.2% of cT2cN0 patients were understaged. CONCLUSIONS: Due to unreliable identification of cT2N0 disease, all patients should be offered a multimodal therapeutic approach.

Evidence for the Positive Impact of Centralization in Esophageal Cancer Surgery.

OBJECTIVE: In this study we analyzed the impact of centralization on key metrics, outcomes and patterns of care at the Irish National Center. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Overall survival rates in esophageal cancer in the West have doubled in the last 25 years. An international trend towards centralization may be relevant, however this model remains controversial with Ireland, centralizing esophageal cancer surgery in 2011. STUDY DESIGN: All patients (n=1245) with adenocarcinoma of the esophagus or junction treated with curative intent involving surgery, including endoscopic surgery, were included (n= 461 from 2000-2011, and 784 from 2012-2022). All data entry was prospectively recorded. Overall survival was measured (i) for the entire cohort; (ii) patients with locally advanced disease (cT2-3N0-3); and (iii) patients undergoing neoadjuvant therapy. All complications were recorded as per Esophageal Complication Consensus Group (ECCG) definitions, and the Clavien Dindo (CD) severity classification. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Data were analyzed using GraphPad Prism (v.6.0) for Windows and SPSS (v.23.0) software (SPSS,Chicago,IL) RStudio (Rversion4.2.2). Survival times were calculated using log-rank test and a Cox-regression analysis, and Kaplan-Meier curves generated. RESULTS: Endotherapy for cT1a/IMC adenocarcinoma increased from 40 (9% total) to 245 (31% total) procedures between the pre-centralization (pre-C) and post-centralization (post-C) periods. A significantly (P<0.001) higher proportion of patients with cT2-3N0-3 disease in the post-C period underwent neoadjuvant therapy (66% vs 53%). Operative mortality was lower (P=0.02) post-C, at 2% vs 4.5%, and>IIIa CD major complications decreased from 33% to 25% (P<0.01). Recurrence rates were lower post-C (38% vs 53%, P<0.01). Median overall survival was 73.83 versus 47.23 months in the 2012-22 and 2000-11 cohorts respectively (P<0.001). For those who received neoadjuvant therapy, the median survival was 28.5 months pre-C and 42.5 months post-C (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: These data highlight improvements in both operative outcomes and survival from the time of centralization, and a major expansion of endoscopic surgery. Although not providing proof, the study suggests a positive impact of formal centralization with governance on key quality metrics, and an evolution in patterns of care.

Reducing recurrence rates in hiatal hernia repair: Results of a quality improvement study.

BACKGROUND: Patient and procedure factors are considered in the decision-making process for surgical repair of hiatal hernias. Recurrence is multi-factorial and has been shown to be related to size, type, BMI and age. AIMS: This study examined recurrence rates in a single institution, identified areas for improved surgical technique, and re-assessed recurrence following implantation of a quality improvement initiative. METHODS: A retrospective review of patients undergoing hiatal hernia repair surgery between 2018 and 2022 was conducted. Demographics, pre-operative characteristics, intra-operative procedures and recurrence rates were reviewed. RESULTS: Seventy-five patients from 2018 to 2020 and 34 patients from 2021 to 2022 were identified. The recurrence rate was 21% in 2018-2020, with 14% requiring a revisional procedure. Recurrence and re-operation were subsequently reduced to 6% in 2021 and 2022, which was statistically significant (p = 0.043). There was an increase in gastropexy from 21% to 41% following the review (p = 0.032), which was mainly reserved for large and giant hernias. Procedural and literature review, alongside gastropexy, can be attributed to recurrence rate reduction. CONCLUSIONS: It is important to educate patients on the likelihood and risk factors of recurrence. A comprehensive review of procedures and a quality improvement program in our facility for hiatal hernia repair is shown to reduce recurrence.

International External Validation of Risk Prediction Model of 90-Day Mortality after Gastrectomy for Cancer Using Machine Learning.

BACKGROUND: Radical gastrectomy remains the main treatment for gastric cancer, despite its high mortality. A clinical predictive model of 90-day mortality (90DM) risk after gastric cancer surgery based on the Spanish EURECCA registry database was developed using a matching learning algorithm. We performed an external validation of this model based on data from an international multicenter cohort of patients. METHODS: A cohort of patients from the European GASTRODATA database was selected. Demographic, clinical, and treatment variables in the original and validation cohorts were compared. The performance of the model was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) for a random forest model. RESULTS: The validation cohort included 2546 patients from 24 European hospitals. The advanced clinical T- and N-category, neoadjuvant therapy, open procedures, total gastrectomy rates, and mean volume of the centers were significantly higher in the validation cohort. The 90DM rate was also higher in the validation cohort (5.6%) vs. the original cohort (3.7%). The AUC in the validation model was 0.716. CONCLUSION: The externally validated model for predicting the 90DM risk in gastric cancer patients undergoing gastrectomy with curative intent continues to be as useful as the original model in clinical practice.

Computed tomography (CT) derived radiomics to predict post-operative disease recurrence in gastric cancer; a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Radiomics offers the potential to predict oncological outcomes from pre-operative imaging in order to identify 'high risk' patients at increased risk of recurrence. The application of radiomics in predicting disease recurrence provides tailoring of therapeutic strategies. We aim to comprehensively assess the existing literature regarding the current role of radiomics as a predictor of disease recurrence in gastric cancer. METHODS: A systematic search was conducted in Medline, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases. Inclusion criteria encompassed retrospective and prospective studies investigating the use of radiomics to predict post-operative recurrence in ovarian cancer. Study quality was assessed using the QUADAS-2 and Radiomics Quality Score tools. RESULTS: Nine studies met the inclusion criteria, involving a total of 6,662 participants. Radiomic-based nomograms demonstrated consistent performance in predicting disease recurrence, as evidenced by satisfactory area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values (AUC range 0.72 - 1). The pooled AUCs calculated using the inverse-variance method for both the training and validation datasets were 0.819 and 0.789 respectively CONCLUSION: Our review provides good evidence supporting the role of radiomics as a predictor of post-operative disease recurrence in gastric cancer. Included studies noted good performance in predicting their primary outcome. Radiomics may enhance personalised medicine by tailoring treatment decision based on predicted prognosis.

Long-term impact of aerodigestive symptoms on adults with oesophageal cancer: A qualitative study.

PURPOSE: The impact of long-term aerodigestive symptoms following oesophageal cancer surgery is still not well understood. This study aimed to qualitatively understand the long-term impact of aerodigestive symptoms on quality of life in adults post-oesophagectomy. METHOD: Participants who received curative transhiatal/transthoracic surgery for oesophageal cancer in Ireland's National Oesophageal Cancer Centre were invited to attend semi-structured interviews. Surgery had to be completed at least 12 months prior. Reflexive thematic analysis was conducted. RESULT: Forty participants were interviewed individually face-to-face. Four key themes were identified: (a) isolation, reflecting the reported solitude experienced by oesophageal cancer survivors when attempting to manage their ongoing aerodigestive symptoms; (b) fear, including fear of choking and fear that dysphagia symptoms may indicate recurrence of oesophageal cancer; (c) altered work capacity, caused by ongoing aerodigestive symptoms; and (d) avoidance of social situations involving food, due to the pain, discomfort, and embarrassment caused by these symptoms. CONCLUSION: Oesophageal cancer treatment can be lifesaving, however, such medical interventions can result in distressing physiological aerodigestive symptoms throughout survivorship, which can significantly impact quality of life. Our findings indicate a need for greater community support to manage aerodigestive symptoms and reduce the impact these have on quality of life.

Recurrence and Survival After Minimally Invasive and Open Esophagectomy for Esophageal Cancer: A Post Hoc Analysis of the Ensure Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of operative approach [open (OE), hybrid minimally invasive (HMIE), and total minimally invasive (TMIE) esophagectomy] on operative and oncologic outcomes for patients treated with curative intent for esophageal and junctional cancer. BACKGROUND: The optimum oncologic surgical approach to esophageal and junctional cancer is unclear. METHODS: This secondary analysis of the European multicenter ENSURE study includes patients undergoing curative-intent esophagectomy for cancer between 2009 and 2015 across 20 high-volume centers. Primary endpoints were disease-free survival (DFS) and the incidence and location of disease recurrence. Secondary endpoints included among others R0 resection rate, lymph node yield, and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: In total, 3199 patients were included. Of these, 55% underwent OE, 17% HMIE, and 29% TMIE. DFS was independently increased post-TMIE [hazard ratio (HR): 0.86 (95% CI: 0.76-0.98), P = 0.022] compared with OE. Multivariable regression demonstrated no difference in absolute locoregional recurrence risk according to the operative approach [HMIE vs OE, odds ratio (OR): 0.79, P = 0.257; TMIE vs OE, OR: 0.84, P = 0.243]. The probability of systemic recurrence was independently increased post-HMIE (OR: 2.07, P = 0.031), but not TMIE (OR: 0.86, P = 0.508). R0 resection rates ( P = 0.005) and nodal yield ( P < 0.001) were independently increased after TMIE, but not HMIE ( P = 0.424; P = 0.512) compared with OE. OS was independently improved following both HMIE (HR: 0.79, P = 0.009) and TMIE (HR: 0.82, P = 0.003) as compared with OE. CONCLUSION: In this European multicenter study, TMIE was associated with improved surgical quality and DFS, whereas both TMIE and HMIE were associated with improved OS as compared with OE for esophageal cancer.

Western European Variation in the Organization of Esophageal Cancer Surgical Care.

Reasons for structural and outcome differences in esophageal cancer surgery in Western Europe remain unclear. This questionnaire study aimed to identify differences in the organization of esophageal cancer surgical care in Western Europe. A cross-sectional international questionnaire study was conducted among upper gastrointestinal (GI) surgeons from Western Europe. One surgeon per country was selected based on scientific output and active membership in the European Society for Diseases of the Esophagus or (inter)national upper GI committee. The questionnaire consisted of 51 structured questions on the structural organization of esophageal cancer surgery, surgical training, and clinical audit processes. Between October 2021 and October 2022, 16 surgeons from 16 European countries participated in this study. In 5 countries (31%), a volume threshold was present ranging from 10 to 26 annual esophagectomies, in 7 (44%) care was centralized in designated centers, and in 4 (25%) no centralizing regulations were present. The number of centers performing esophageal cancer surgery per country differed from 4 to 400, representing 0.5-4.9 centers per million inhabitants. In 4 countries (25%), esophageal cancer surgery was part of general surgical training and 8 (50%) reported the availability of upper GI surgery fellowships. A national audit for upper GI surgery was present in 8 (50%) countries. If available, all countries use the audit to monitor the quality of care. Substantial differences exist in the organization and centralization of esophageal cancer surgical care in Western Europe. The exchange of experience in the organizational aspects of care could further improve the results of esophageal cancer surgical care in Europe.

Analysing the Combined Effects of Radiotherapy and Chemokine Receptor 5 Antagonism: Complementary Approaches to Promote T Cell Function and Migration in Oesophageal Adenocarcinoma.

The presence of an immunosuppressive tumour microenvironment in oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) is a major contributor to poor responses. Novel treatment strategies are required to supplement current regimens and improve patient survival. This study examined the immunomodulatory effects that radiation therapy and chemokine receptor antagonism impose on T cell phenotypes in OAC with a primary goal of identifying potential therapeutic targets to combine with radiation to improve anti-tumour responses. Compared with healthy controls, anti-tumour T cell function was impaired in OAC patients, demonstrated by lower IFN-γ production by CD4+ T helper cells and lower CD8+ T cell cytotoxic potential. Such diminished T cell effector functions were enhanced following treatment with clinically relevant doses of irradiation. Interestingly, CCR5+ T cells were significantly more abundant in OAC patient blood compared with healthy controls, and CCR5 surface expression by T cells was further enhanced by clinically relevant doses of irradiation. Moreover, irradiation enhanced T cell migration towards OAC patient-derived tumour-conditioned media (TCM). In vitro treatment with the CCR5 antagonist Maraviroc enhanced IFN-γ production by CD4+ T cells and increased the migration of irradiated CD8+ T cells towards irradiated TCM, suggesting its synergistic therapeutic potential in combination with irradiation. Overall, this study highlights the immunostimulatory properties of radiation in promoting anti-tumour T cell responses in OAC and increasing T cell migration towards chemotactic cues in the tumour. Importantly, the CCR5 antagonist Maraviroc holds promise to be repurposed in combination with radiotherapy to promote anti-tumour T cell responses in OAC.

European clinical practice guidelines for the definition, diagnosis, and treatment of oligometastatic esophagogastric cancer (OMEC-4).

INTRODUCTION: The OligoMetastatic Esophagogastric Cancer (OMEC) project aims to provide clinical practice guidelines for the definition, diagnosis, and treatment of esophagogastric oligometastatic disease (OMD). METHODS: Guidelines were developed according to AGREE II and GRADE principles. Guidelines were based on a systematic review (OMEC-1), clinical case discussions (OMEC-2), and a Delphi consensus study (OMEC-3) by 49 European expert centers for esophagogastric cancer. OMEC identified patients for whom the term OMD is considered or could be considered. Disease-free interval (DFI) was defined as the time between primary tumor treatment and detection of OMD. RESULTS: Moderate to high quality of evidence was found (i.e. 1 randomized and 4 non-randomized phase II trials) resulting in moderate recommendations. OMD is considered in esophagogastric cancer patients with 1 organ with ≤ 3 metastases or 1 involved extra-regional lymph node station. In addition, OMD continues to be considered in patients with OMD without progression in number of metastases after systemic therapy. 18F-FDG PET/CT imaging is recommended for baseline staging and for restaging after systemic therapy when local treatment is considered. For patients with synchronous OMD or metachronous OMD and a DFI ≤ 2 years, recommended treatment consists of systemic therapy followed by restaging to assess suitability for local treatment. For patients with metachronous OMD and DFI > 2 years, upfront local treatment is additionally recommended. DISCUSSION: These multidisciplinary European clinical practice guidelines for the uniform definition, diagnosis and treatment of esophagogastric OMD can be used to standardize inclusion criteria in future clinical trials and to reduce variation in treatment.

Sex-related differences in oncologic outcomes, operative complications and health-related quality of life after curative-intent oesophageal cancer treatment: multicentre retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Oesophageal cancer, in particular adenocarcinoma, has a strong male predominance. However, the impact of patient sex on operative and oncologic outcomes and recovery of health-related quality of life is poorly documented, and was the focus of this large multicentre cohort study. METHODS: All consecutive patients who underwent oncological oesophagectomy from 2009 to 2015 in the 20 European iNvestigation of SUrveillance after Resection for Esophageal cancer study group centres were assessed. Clinicopathologic variables, therapeutic approach, postoperative complications, survival and health-related quality of life data were compared between male and female patients. Multivariable analyses adjusted for age, sex, tumour histology, treatment protocol and major complications. Specific subgroup analyses comparing adenocarcinoma versus squamous cell cancer for all key outcomes were performed. RESULTS: Overall, 3974 patients were analysed, 3083 (77.6%) male and 891 (22.4%) female; adenocarcinoma was predominant in both groups, while squamous cell cancer was observed more commonly in female patients (39.8% versus 15.1%, P < 0.001). Multivariable analysis demonstrated improved outcomes in female patients for overall survival (HRmales 1.24, 95% c.i. 1.07 to 1.44) and disease-free survival (HRmales 1.22, 95% c.i. 1.05 to 1.43), which was caused by the adenocarcinoma subgroup, whereas this difference was not confirmed in squamous cell cancer. Male patients presented higher health-related quality of life functional scores but also a higher risk of financial problems, while female patients had lower overall summary scores and more persistent gastrointestinal symptoms. CONCLUSION: This study reveals uniquely that female sex is associated with more favourable long-term survival after curative treatment for oesophageal cancer, especially adenocarcinoma, although long-term overall and gastrointestinal health-related quality of life are poorer in women.

Real-time ex vivo monitoring of NK cell migration toward obesity-associated oesophageal adenocarcinoma following modulation of CX3CR1.

Oesophagogastric adenocarcinomas (OAC) are poor prognosis, obesity-associated cancers which may benefit from natural killer (NK) cell-based immunotherapies. Cellular immunotherapies encounter two key challenges to their success in OAC, namely recruitment to extratumoural tissues such as the omentum at the expense of the tumour and an immunosuppressive tumour microenvironment (TME) which can hamper NK cell function. Herein, we examined approaches to overcome the detrimental impact of obesity on NK cells and NK cell-based immunotherapies. We have demonstrated that NK cells migrate preferentially to the chemotactic signals of OAC patient-derived omentum over tumour in an ex vivo model of immune cell migration. We have identified CX3CR1 modulation and/or tumour chemokine profile remodelling as approaches to skew NK cell migration towards tumour. We also report targetable immunosuppressive facets of the obese OAC TME which dampen NK cell function, in particular cytotoxic capabilities. These data provide insights into approaches to therapeutically overcome key challenges presented by obesity and will inform superior design of NK cell-based immunotherapies for OAC.

Nature, severity, and impact of chronic oropharyngeal dysphagia following curative resection for esophageal cancer: a cross-sectional study.

Chronic oropharyngeal dysphagia (COD) and aspiration after esophageal cancer surgery may have clinical significance; however, it is a rarely studied topic. In a prospective cross-sectional observational study we comprehensively evaluated the nature, severity, and impact of COD, its predictors, and the impact of the surgical approach and site of anastomosis. Forty participants were recruited via purposive sampling from the (Irish) National Center between November 2021 and August 2022. Swallow evaluations included videofluoroscopy [Dynamic Imaging Grade of Swallowing Toxicity v2 (DIGESTv2), MBS Impairment Profile, Penetration-Aspiration Scale)]. Functional Oral Intake Scale (FOIS) identified oral intake status. The patient reported outcome measures of swallowing, and Quality of Life (QL) included EAT-10 and MD Anderson Dysphagia Inventory (MDADI). Fourteen (35%) participants presented with COD on DIGESTv2 and 10% had uncleared penetration/aspiration. Avoidance or modification of diet on FOIS was observed in 17 (42.5%). FOIS was associated with pharyngeal dysphagia (OR = 4.05, P = 0.046). Median (range) EAT-10 and MDADI Composite results were 3(0-30) and 77.9(60-92.6), respectively. Aspiration rates significantly differed across surgical groups (P = 0.029); only patients undergoing transhiatal surgery aspirated. Survivors of esophageal cancer surgery may have COD that is undiagnosed, potentially impacting swallow-related QL. Given the small number of aspirators, further research is required to determine whether aspiration risk is associated with surgical approach. A FOIS score below 7 may be a clinically useful prompt for the MDT to refer for evaluation of COD following curative intent surgery. These data present findings that may guide preventive and rehabilitative strategies toward optimizing survivorship.

Measurement and optimization of perioperative risk among patients undergoing surgery for esophageal cancer.

Esophagectomy is an exemplar of complex oncological surgery and is associated with a relatively high risk of major morbidity and mortality. In the modern era, where specific complications are targeted in prevention and treatment pathways, and where the principles of enhanced recovery after surgery are espoused, optimum outcomes are targeted via a number of approaches. These include comprehensive clinical and physiological risk assessment, specialist perioperative care by a high-volume team, and multimodal inputs throughout the patient journey that aim to preserve or restore nutritional deficits, muscle mass and function.

'SurgTalk': The Educational Outcomes Associated With Development of a Surgical Podcast for Undergraduate Medical Students.

OBJECTIVE: Educational podcast series are becoming increasingly popular as free open access medical education (FOAMed) resources, however, the educational benefit associated with their use is unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the educational outcomes associated with the implementation of a surgical podcast series for undergraduate medical students. METHODS: Two conversational case-based podcast episodes were recorded covering 2 common surgical presentations. Final-year medical students were recruited prospectively in January 2023 and underwent a baseline multiple choice question (MCQ) test covering the material within the podcast episodes. Participants were then provided with the episode files through encrypted Google Drive links. Two weeks following baseline assessment, students repeated the initial MCQ test and completed a postpodcast reaction survey. Data were analyzed using a paired t-test, multivariable regression analyses, and simple descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Fifty students were enrolled in the study. All participants undertook the baseline assessment. About 98% completed the postpodcast MCQ, while 94% completed the postpodcast reaction survey. All participants who undertook the reaction survey (n = 47) found the podcast helpful in explaining surgical concepts, 92% of participants found the podcast enjoyable to listen to. The most commonly reported activity undertaken while listening was "commuting/driving" (n = 24, 48%). The mean baseline MCQ score was 44.6%. The mean postpodcast MCQ score was 65.51%. There was a mean absolute increase in test score of 20.2% from baseline which was statistically significant (95%CI 14.67-25.6, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Implementation of this podcast series was associated with a statistically significant improvement in mean test score from baseline, reflecting knowledge acquisition. There was a positive user reaction and students were able to listen while performing other activities. Further evaluation of the educational outcomes associated with podcast use, particularly the effects on knowledge retention and clinical competence, is required.

Trimodality therapy versus perioperative chemotherapy in the management of locally advanced adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus and oesophagogastric junction (Neo-AEGIS): an open-label, randomised, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: The optimum curative approach to adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus and oesophagogastric junction is unknown. We aimed to compare trimodality therapy (preoperative radiotherapy with carboplatin plus paclitaxel [CROSS regimen]) with optimum contemporaneous perioperative chemotherapy regimens (epirubicin plus cisplatin or oxaliplatin plus fluorouracil or capecitabine [a modified MAGIC regimen] before 2018 and fluorouracil, leucovorin, oxaliplatin, and docetaxel [FLOT] subsequently). METHODS: Neo-AEGIS (CTRIAL-IE 10-14) was an open-label, randomised, phase 3 trial done at 24 centres in Europe. Patients aged 18 years or older with clinical tumour stage T2-3, nodal stage N0-3, and M0 adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus and oesophagogastric junction were randomly assigned to perioperative chemotherapy (three preoperative and three postoperative 3-week cycles of intravenous 50 mg/m2 epirubicin on day 1 plus intravenous 60 mg/m2 cisplatin or intravenous 130 mg/m2 oxaliplatin on day 1 plus continuous infusion of 200 mg/m2 fluorouracil daily or oral 625 mg/m2 capecitabine twice daily up to 2018, with four preoperative and four postoperative 2-week cycles of 2600 mg/m2 fluorouracil, 85 mg/m2 oxaliplatin, 200 mg/m2 leucovorin, and 50 mg/m2 docetaxel intravenously on day 1 as an option from 2018) or trimodality therapy (41·4 Gy in 23 fractions on days 1-5, 8-12, 15-19, 22-26, and 29-31 with intravenous area under the curve 2 mg/mL per min carboplatin plus intravenous 50 mg/m2 paclitaxel on days 1, 8, 15, 22, and 29). The primary endpoint was overall survival, assessed in all randomly assigned patients who received at least one dose of study drug, regardless of which study drug they received, by intention to treat. Secondary endpoints were disease-free survival, site of treatment failure, operative complications, toxicity, pathological response (complete [ypT0N0] and major [tumour regression grade 1 and 2]), margin-free resection (R0), and health-related quality of life. Toxicity and safety data were analysed in the safety population, defined as patients who took at least one dose of study drug, according to treatment actually received. The initial power calculation was based on superiority of trimodality therapy (n=366 patients); it was adjusted after FLOT became an option to a non-inferiority design with a margin of 5% for perioperative chemotherapy (n=540). This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01726452. FINDINGS: Between Jan 24, 2013, and Dec 23, 2020, 377 patients were randomly assigned, of whom 362 were included in the intention-to treat population (327 [90%] male and 360 [99%] White): 184 in the perioperative chemotherapy group and 178 in the trimodality therapy group. The trial closed prematurely in December, 2020, after the second interim futility analysis (143 deaths), on the basis of similar survival metrics and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. At a median follow-up of 38·8 months (IQR 16·3-55·1), median overall survival was 48·0 months (95% CI 33·6-64·8) in the perioperative chemotherapy group and 49·2 months (34·8-74·4) in the trimodality therapy group (3-year overall survival 55% [95% CI 47-62] vs 57% [49-64]; hazard ratio 1·03 [95% CI 0·77-1·38]; log-rank p=0·82). Median disease-free survival was 32·4 months (95% CI 22·8-64·8) in the perioperative chemotherapy group and 24·0 months (18·0-40·8) in the trimodality therapy group [hazard ratio 0·89 [95% CI 0·68-1·17]; log-rank p=0·41). The pattern of recurrence, locoregional or systemic, was not significantly different (odds ratio 1·35 [95% CI 0·63-2·91], p=0·44). Pathological complete response (odds ratio 0·33 [95% CI 0·14-0·81], p=0·012), major pathological response (0·21 [0·12-0·38], p<0·0001), and R0 rates (0·21 [0·08-0·53], p=0·0003) favoured trimodality therapy. The most common grade 3-4 adverse event was neutropenia (49 [27%] of 183 patients in the perioperative chemotherapy group vs 11 [6%] of 178 patients in the trimodality therapy group), followed by diarrhoea (20 [11%] vs none), and pulmonary embolism (ten [5%] vs nine [5%]). One (1%) patient in the perioperative chemotherapy group and three (2%) patients in the trimodality therapy group died from serious adverse events, two (one in each group) of which were possibly related to treatment. No differences were seen in operative mortality (five [3%] deaths in the perioperative chemotherapy group vs four [2%] in the trimodality therapy group), major morbidity, or in global health status at 1 and 3 years. INTERPRETATION: Although underpowered and incomplete, Neo-AEGIS provides the largest comprehensive randomised dataset for patients with adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus and oesophagogastric junction treated with perioperative chemotherapy (predominantly the modified MAGIC regimen), and CROSS trimodality therapy, and reports similar 3-year survival and no major differences in operative and health-related quality of life outcomes. We suggest that these data support continued clinical equipoise. FUNDING: Health Research Board, Cancer Research UK, Irish Cancer Society, Oesophageal Cancer Fund, and French National Cancer Institute.

External validation of a nomogram predicting conditional survival after tri-modality treatment of esophageal cancer.

BACKGROUND: A conditional survival nomogram was developed at a single high-volume center to predict 5-year overall survival for esophageal cancer patients after neoadjuvant chemoradiation and esophagectomy. The aim of this study was to externally validate the nomogram in a cohort of patients with esophageal adeno- or squamous cell carcinoma from another high-volume center. METHODS: Consecutive patients with an esophageal adeno- or squamous cell carcinoma who had undergone esophagectomy after being treated with preoperative chemoradiation between 2004 and 2016 were selected from a prospectively maintained institutional database. The level of discrimination for prediction of 5-year overall survival was quantified by Harrell's C statistic. Calibration of the conditional survival nomogram was visualized by plotting predicted 5-year survival and observed 5-year survival for comparison. RESULTS: Of the 296 patients examined, the probability of 5-year overall survival directly after surgery was 45% and increased to 51%, 68%, 78%, and 89% for each additional year survived. The predicted 5-year overall survival differed from the observed survival, with a calibration slope of 0.54, 0.55, 0.59, 0.73, and 1.09 directly after surgery and 1, 2, 3, and 4 years of survival after surgery, respectively. The nomogram's discrimination level for 5-year survival was moderate, with a C statistic of 0.65 compared to the 0.70 reported in the original study. CONCLUSION: The nomogram model has moderate predictive discrimination and accuracy, supporting its applicability to external cohorts to predict conditional survival. Further validation studies should empirically assess the model for predictive performance.