Temporal Trends in Spinal Imaging in Ontario (2002-2019) and Manitoba (2001-2011), Canada.

Background Several studies have reported the overuse of spinal imaging, which, in Canada, led to several provincial pathways aimed at optimizing the use of imaging. We assessed temporal trends in spine imaging in two Canadian provinces. Methods We explored the use of X-ray, computed tomography (CT), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examinations of the cervical, thoracic, and lumbar spine regions among adults in Ontario (April 1, 2002, to March 31, 2019) and in Manitoba, Canada (April 1, 2001, to March 31, 2011) using linked Ontario Health Insurance Plan administrative databases and data from Manitoba Health. We calculated the age- and sex-adjusted rates of spinal X-ray, CT, and MRI examinations by dividing the number of imaging studies by the population of each province for each year and estimated the use of each imaging modality per 100,000 persons. Results The total cost of spine imaging in Ontario increased from $45.8 million in 2002/03 to $70.3 million in 2018/19 (a 54% increase), and in Manitoba from $2.2 million in 2001/02 to $5 million in 2010/11 (a 127% increase). In Ontario, rates of spine X-rays decreased by 12% and spine CT scans decreased by 28% over this time period, while in Manitoba, rates of spine X-rays and CT scans remained constant. Age- and sex-adjusted utilization of spinal MRI scans per 100,000 persons markedly increased over time in both Ontario (277%) and Manitoba (350%). Conclusion Despite efforts to reduce the use of inappropriate spinal imaging, both Ontario and Manitoba have greatly increased utilization of spine MRI in the past two decades.

Dissemination and implementation of clinical practice guidelines: a longitudinal, mixed-methods evaluation of the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care's knowledge translation efforts.

BACKGROUND: The Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care (task force) develops evidence-based preventive health care guidelines and knowledge translation (KT) tools to facilitate guideline dissemination and implementation. We aimed to determine practitioners' awareness of task force guidelines and KT tools and explore barriers and facilitators to their use. METHODS: The task force's KT team completed annual evaluations using surveys and interviews with primary care providers in Canada from 2014 to 2020, to assess practitioners' awareness and determinants of use of task force guidelines and tools. We transcribed interviews verbatim and double-coded them using a framework analysis approach. RESULTS: A total of 1284 primary care practitioners completed surveys and 183 participated in interviews. On average, 79.9% of participants were aware of the task force's 7 cancer screening guidelines, 36.2% were aware of the other 6 screening guidelines and 18.6% were aware of the 3 lifestyle or prevention guidelines. Participants identified 13 barriers and 7 facilitators to guideline and KT tool implementation; these were consistent over time. Participants identified strategies at the public and patient, provider and health systems levels to improve uptake of guidelines. INTERPRETATION: Canadian primary care practitioners were more aware of task force cancer screening guidelines than its other preventive health guidelines. Over the 6-year period, participants consistently reported barriers to guideline uptake, including misalignment with patient preferences and other provincial or specialty guideline organizations. Further evaluations will assess tailored strategies to address the barriers identified.

Recommandations sur le dépistage pour la prévention primaire des fractures de fragilisation.

CONTEXTE: Les fractures de fragilisation sont un important problème de santé chez les adultes âgés et peuvent entraîner des incapacités, des hospitalisations et le placement en établissement de soins de longue durée, en plus de nuire à la qualité de vie. La présente ligne directrice du Groupe d'étude canadien sur les soins de santé préventifs (le Groupe d'étude) formule des recommandations fondées sur des données probantes au sujet du dépistage pour la prévention des fractures de fragilisation chez les personnes âgées de 40 ans et plus vivant dans la collectivité qui ne sont pas sous traitement pharmacologique préventif. MÉTHODES: Nous avons commandé des revues systématiques sur les bénéfices et les préjudices du dépistage, l'exactitude prédictive des outils d'évaluation du risque, les bénéfices du traitement, ainsi que l'acceptabilité de celui-ci par les patients. Nous avons analysé les préjudices des traitements au moyen d'un examen rapide de revues systématiques. Nous avons en outre analysé les valeurs et les préférences des patients par l'entremise de groupes de discussion et auprès d'intervenants mobilisés à certains moments clés, tout au long du projet. Nous avons utilisé l'approche méthodologique GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation) afin de déterminer la certitude des données probantes pour chacune des issues cliniques ainsi que la force des recommandations, et nous avons appliqué les lignes directrices de l'instrument AGREE (Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation), du Guidelines International Network (GIN) et du guide de rédaction Guidance for Reporting Involvement of Patients and the Public (GRIPP 2). RECOMMANDATIONS: Nous recommandons un dépistage débutant par une estimation du risque pour la prévention des fractures de fragilisation chez les femmes de 65 ans et plus. Le dépistage se fait d'abord au moyen de l'outil canadien FRAX, qui mesure le risque de fracture, sans densité minérale osseuse (DMO). Le score FRAX devrait guider la prise de décision partagée entourant les bénéfices et les préjudices potentiels de la pharmacothérapie préventive. Après cette discussion, si une pharmacothérapie préventive est envisagée, les médecins devraient demander une mesure de la DMO par absorptiométrie à rayons X biphotonique (DEXA) du col du fémur, puis réévaluer le risque de fracture en intégrant le score T de la DMO au score FRAX (recommandation conditionnelle, données de faible certitude). Nous ne recommandons pas le dépistage chez les femmes de 40­64 ans et les hommes de 40 ans et plus (recommandation forte, données de très faible certitude). Ces recommandations s'appliquent aux personnes vivant dans la collectivité qui ne sont pas sous pharmacothérapie pour la prévention des fractures de fragilisation. INTERPRÉTATION: Le dépistage débutant par une estimation du risque chez les femmes de 65 ans et plus facilite la prise de décision partagée et permet aux patientes d'envisager la pharmacothérapie préventive en fonction de leur propre risque (avant DMO). Le fait de ne pas recommander le dépistage chez les hommes et les femmes plus jeunes rappelle l'importance des bonnes pratiques cliniques, en vertu desquelles les médecins doivent demeurer à l'affût de tout changement de l'état de santé des personnes qui pourrait indiquer qu'elles ont subi une fracture de fragilisation ou pourraient y être plus sujettes.

Recommendations on screening for primary prevention of fragility fractures.

BACKGROUND: Fragility fractures are a major health concern for older adults and can result in disability, admission to hospital and long-term care, and reduced quality of life. This Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care (task force) guideline provides evidence-based recommendations on screening to prevent fragility fractures in community-dwelling individuals aged 40 years and older who are not currently on preventive pharmacotherapy. METHODS: We commissioned systematic reviews on benefits and harms of screening, predictive accuracy of risk assessment tools, patient acceptability and benefits of treatment. We analyzed treatment harms via a rapid overview of reviews. We further examined patient values and preferences via focus groups and engaged stakeholders at key points throughout the project. We used the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach to determine the certainty of evidence for each outcome and strength of recommendations, and adhered to Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE), Guidelines International Network and Guidance for Reporting Involvement of Patients and the Public (GRIPP-2) reporting guidance. RECOMMENDATIONS: We recommend "risk assessment-first" screening for prevention of fragility fractures in females aged 65 years and older, with initial application of the Canadian clinical Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) without bone mineral density (BMD). The FRAX result should be used to facilitate shared decision-making about the possible benefits and harms of preventive pharmacotherapy. After this discussion, if preventive pharmacotherapy is being considered, clinicians should request BMD measurement using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) of the femoral neck, and re-estimate fracture risk by adding the BMD T-score into FRAX (conditional recommendation, low-certainty evidence). We recommend against screening females aged 40-64 years and males aged 40 years and older (strong recommendation, very low-certainty evidence). These recommendations apply to community-dwelling individuals who are not currently on pharmacotherapy to prevent fragility fractures. INTERPRETATION: Risk assessment-first screening for females aged 65 years and older facilitates shared decision-making and allows patients to consider preventive pharmacotherapy within their individual risk context (before BMD). Recommendations against screening males and younger females emphasize the importance of good clinical practice, where clinicians are alert to changes in health that may indicate the patient has experienced or is at higher risk of fragility fracture.

Indirectness (transferability) is critical when considering existing economic evaluations for GRADE clinical practice guidelines: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) practice guideline developers often perform systematic reviews of potential economic evaluations to inform recommendation decision-making. We aimed to identify indirectness characteristics of economic evaluations, related to GRADE evidence-to-decision (EtD) theoretical frameworks, that influence selection of these articles. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and EconLit were systematically searched to May 2020 to identify indirectness characteristics relevant for economic evaluation transferability to GRADE EtD theoretical frameworks. Four reviewers screened citations to identify articles of any type that explored study characteristics most important or relevant to economic evaluation transferability, restricted to English language we generated frequencies of article features, used thematic analysis to summarize study characteristics, and assessed certainty in the evidence using GRADE-CERQual. RESULTS: We included 57 articles, with a dearth of empirical literature-some may have been missed. We identified eight general themes and 28 subthemes most important to transferability from 41% of articles. Moderate-to-high confidence evidence suggested that GRADE EtD domains of population, intervention and comparison research question elements, resource use estimation and methodology, and provider and decision maker acceptability are most important indirectness study characteristics that economists consider when choosing economic evaluation outcomes for use in recommendation decision-making. CONCLUSION: We have identified factors important for guideline developers to consider when selecting economic evaluations as research evidence. An economic competency on the development team facilitates these endeavors. This supports the GRADE Working Group's tenant of transparent reporting or availability of sufficient information elsewhere to assess indirectness.

Formulations of desensitizing toothpastes for dentin hypersensitivity: a scoping review.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to review evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to describe: 1) the active ingredients and desensitizing toothpaste brands; 2) the evaluation of these active ingredients over time, and 3) the fluoride and abrasive content in the formulations designed to treat dentin hypersensitivity (DH). METHODOLOGY: In total, 138 RCTs and their tested toothpastes were included. Searches were updated up to August 19, 2021. Formulations, reported brands, active ingredients over time, and type of fluoride (ionizable or ionic fluoride) and abrasive (calcium or silica-based) were analyzed (PROSPERO #CRD42018086815). RESULTS: Our trials assessed 368 toothpaste formulations, including 34 placebo (9%), 98 control toothpastes with fluoride (27%), and 236 (64%) with active ingredients to treat DH. We tested the following active ingredients: potassium compounds (n=68, 19%), calcium sodium phosphosilicate (CSP) (n=37, 10%), strontium compounds (n=28, 8%), arginine (n=29, 8%), stannous fluoride (SnF2) (n=21, 6%), hydroxyapatite (n=9, 2%), potassium combined with another active ingredient (n=19, 5%), inorganic salt compounds (n=11, 3%), citrate (n=5, 1%), formaldehyde (n=3, 1%), herbal (n=4, 1%), copolymer (n=1, 0.5%), and trichlorophosphate (TCP) (n=1, 0.5%). The number of toothpaste formulations increased since 1968, with the greatest increment after 2010. Most toothpastes described their type of fluoride as sodium monofluorphosphate (MFP) (n=105, 29%) and NaF (n=82, 22%), with silica-based (n=84, 23%) and calcium-based (n=64, 17%) abrasives. CONCLUSION: Patients and dentists enjoy an increasing number of brands and active ingredients to decide what desensitizing toothpaste to use. The most common types of fluoride are MFP and NaF.

Formulations of desensitizing toothpastes for dentin hypersensitivity: a scoping review

Abstract Objective: This study aimed to review evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to describe: 1) the active ingredients and desensitizing toothpaste brands; 2) the evaluation of these active ingredients over time, and 3) the fluoride and abrasive content in the formulations designed to treat dentin hypersensitivity (DH). Methodology: In total, 138 RCTs and their tested toothpastes were included. Searches were updated up to August 19, 2021. Formulations, reported brands, active ingredients over time, and type of fluoride (ionizable or ionic fluoride) and abrasive (calcium or silica-based) were analyzed (PROSPERO #CRD42018086815). Results: Our trials assessed 368 toothpaste formulations, including 34 placebo (9%), 98 control toothpastes with fluoride (27%), and 236 (64%) with active ingredients to treat DH. We tested the following active ingredients: potassium compounds (n=68, 19%), calcium sodium phosphosilicate (CSP) (n=37, 10%), strontium compounds (n=28, 8%), arginine (n=29, 8%), stannous fluoride (SnF2) (n=21, 6%), hydroxyapatite (n=9, 2%), potassium combined with another active ingredient (n=19, 5%), inorganic salt compounds (n=11, 3%), citrate (n=5, 1%), formaldehyde (n=3, 1%), herbal (n=4, 1%), copolymer (n=1, 0.5%), and trichlorophosphate (TCP) (n=1, 0.5%). The number of toothpaste formulations increased since 1968, with the greatest increment after 2010. Most toothpastes described their type of fluoride as sodium monofluorphosphate (MFP) (n=105, 29%) and NaF (n=82, 22%), with silica-based (n=84, 23%) and calcium-based (n=64, 17%) abrasives. Conclusion: Patients and dentists enjoy an increasing number of brands and active ingredients to decide what desensitizing toothpaste to use. The most common types of fluoride are MFP and NaF.

Attitudes towards chiropractic: a repeated cross-sectional survey of Canadian family physicians.

BACKGROUND: Many primary care patients receive both medical and chiropractic care; however, interprofessional relations between physicians and chiropractors are often suboptimal which may adversely affect care of shared patients. We surveyed Canadian family physicians in 2010 to explore their attitudes towards chiropractic and re-administered the same survey a decade later to explore for changes in attitudes. METHODS: A 50-item survey administered to a random sample of Canadian family physicians in 2010, and again in 2019, that inquired about demographic variables, knowledge and use of chiropractic. Imbedded in our survey was a 20-item chiropractic attitude questionnaire (CAQ); scores could range from 0 to 80 with higher scores indicating more positive attitudes toward chiropractic. We constructed a multivariable regression model to explore factors associated with CAQ scores. RESULTS: Among eligible physicians, 251 of 685 in 2010 (37% response rate) and 162 of 2429 in 2019 (7% response rate) provided a completed survey. Approximately half of respondents (48%) endorsed a positive impression of chiropractic, 27% were uncertain, and 25% held negative views. Most respondents (72%) referred at least some patients for chiropractic care, mainly due to patient request or lack of response to medical care. Most physicians believed that chiropractors provide effective therapy for some musculoskeletal complaints (84%) and disagreed that chiropractic care was beneficial for non-musculoskeletal conditions (77%). The majority agreed that chiropractic care was a useful supplement to conventional care (65%) but most respondents (59%) also indicated that practice diversity among chiropractors presented a barrier to interprofessional collaboration. In our adjusted regression model, attitudes towards chiropractic showed trivial improvement from 2010 to 2019 (0.31 points on the 80-point CAQ; 95%CI 0.001 to 0.62). More negative attitudes were associated with older age (- 1.55 points for each 10-year increment from age 28; 95%CI - 2.67 to - 0.44), belief that adverse events are common with chiropractic care (- 1.41 points; 95% CI - 2.59 to - 0.23) and reported use of the research literature (- 6.04 points; 95% CI - 8.47 to - 3.61) or medical school (- 5.03 points; 95% CI - 7.89 to - 2.18) as sources of knowledge on chiropractic. More positive attitudes were associated with endorsing a relationship with a specific chiropractor (5.24 points; 95% CI 2.85 to 7.64), family and friends (4.06 points; 95% CI 1.53 to 6.60), or personal treatment experience (4.63 points; 95% CI 2.14 to 7.11) as sources of information regarding chiropractic. CONCLUSIONS: Although generally positive, Canadian family physicians' attitudes towards chiropractic are diverse, and most physicians felt that practice diversity among chiropractors was a barrier to interprofessional collaboration.

Guidelines that use the GRADE approach often fail to provide complete economic information for recommendations: A systematic survey.

OBJECTIVE: Little is known about how developers and panel members report cost and cost effectiveness considerations in GRADE guideline Evidence-to-Decision (EtD) frameworks. A systematic survey was conducted to explore approaches and factors contributing to variability in economic information reporting. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Guideline organization websites were systematically searched to create a convenience sample of guidelines. Reviewers screened published EtD frameworks and generated frequencies of reporting approaches. We used thematic analysis to summarize factors related to variability of economic information reporting. RESULTS: We included 142 guidelines. The overall rate of reporting economic information was high (91%); however, there was variability across completion of predefined EtD Likert-type judgments (70%), noting information as not identified across EtD framework domains (57%), and providing remarks to justify recommendations (38%). Six themes contributing to variability emerged, related to: intervention, population, payor, provider, healthcare resource use, and economic model building factors. Only 2 guidelines performed a GRADE certainty appraisal of economic outcomes. CONCLUSION: Completing predefined EtD Likert-type judgments, specifically reporting a literature review approach, study selection criteria and economic model building limitations, as well as linking these to recommendation justification remarks are potential areas for improved use, adoption and adaptation of recommendation, and transparency of GRADE EtD frameworks.

GRADE notes: How to use GRADE when there is "no" evidence? A case study of the expert evidence approach.

OBJECTIVES: One essential requirement of trustworthy guidelines is that they should be based on systematic reviews of the best available evidence. The GRADE Working Group has provided guidance for evaluating the certainty of evidence based on several domains. However, for many clinical questions, published evidence may be limited, too indirect or simply not exist. In this brief report (GRADE notes), we describe our method of developing evidence-based recommendations when publisheddirect evidence was lacking. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: When direct published literature was absent, an expert evidence survey was administered to panel members about their unpublished observations and case series. Focus was on collecting data about cases and outcome, not panel opinions. RESULTS: Out of 26 questions prioritized by the panel for pediatric venous thromboembolism, 12 had no, very limited, or very low certainty of evidence to inform them. The panel survey was administered for these questions. CONCLUSIONS: Areas of sparse evidence often reflect key questions that are critical to address in clinical practice guidelines due to the uncertainty among health care providers. The expert evidence approach used in this study is one method for panels totransparently deal with the lack of published evidence to directly inform recommendations.

Volunteer Impact on Health-Related Outcomes for Seniors: a Systematic Review And Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Volunteers are increasingly promoted to improve health-related outcomes for community-dwelling elderly without synthesized evidence for effectiveness. This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluates the effects of unpaid volunteer interventions on health-related outcomes for such seniors. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane (CENTRAL) were searched up to November 2018. We included English language, randomized trials. Two reviewers independently identified studies, extracted data, and assessed evidence certainty (using GRADE). Meta-analysis used random-effects models. Univariate meta-regressions investigated the relationship between volunteer intervention effects and trial participant age, percentage females, and risk of bias. RESULTS: 28 included studies focussed on seniors with a variety of chronic conditions (e.g., dementia, diabetes) and health states (e.g., frail, palliative). Volunteers provided a range of roles (e.g., counsellors, educators and coaches). Low certainty evidence found that volunteers may improve both physical function (MD = 3.2 points on the 100-point SF-36 physical component score [PCS]; 95% CI: 1.09, 5.27) and physical activity levels (SMD = 0.5, 95% CI: 0.14 to 0.83). Adverse events were not increased. CONCLUSION: Volunteers may increase physical activity levels and subjective ratings of physical function for seniors without apparent harm. These findings support the WHO call to action on evidence-based policies to align health systems in support of older adults.

Screening for depression in children and adolescents: a protocol for a systematic review update.

BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder is common, debilitating, and affects feelings, thoughts, mood, and behaviors. Childhood and adolescence are critical periods for the development of depression and adolescence is marked by an increased incidence of mental health disorders. This protocol outlines the planned scope and methods for a systematic review update that will evaluate the benefits and harms of screening for depression in children and adolescents. METHODS: This review will update a previously published systematic review by Roseman and colleagues. Eligible studies are randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing formal screening in primary care to identify children or adolescents not already self-reporting symptoms of, diagnosed with, or treated for depression. If no or only a single RCT is available, we will consider controlled studies without random assignment. Studies of participants with characteristics associated with an elevated risk of depression will be analyzed separately. Outcomes of interest are symptoms of depression, classification of major depressive disorder based on a validated diagnostic interview, suicidality, health-related quality of life, social function, impact on lifestyle behavior (e.g., substance use, school performance, lost time at work, or school), false-positive results, overdiagnosis, overtreatment, labeling, and other harms such as those arising from treatment. We will search MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library, and grey literature sources. Two reviewers will independently screen the titles and abstracts using the liberal accelerated method. Full-text screening will be performed independently by two reviewers using pre-specified eligibility criteria. Data extraction and risk of bias assessments will be performed independently by two reviewers. Pre-planned analyses, including subgroup and sensitivity analyses, are detailed within this protocol. Two independent reviewers will assess and finalize through consensus the certainty of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach, and prepare GRADE evidence profiles and summary of findings tables for each outcome of interest. DISCUSSION: The systematic review will provide a current state of the evidence of benefits and harms of depression screening in children and adolescents. These findings will be used by the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care to inform the development of recommendations on depression screening. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42020150373.

Fall prevention interventions for older community-dwelling adults: systematic reviews on benefits, harms, and patient values and preferences.

BACKGROUND: An estimated 20-30% of community-dwelling Canadian adults aged 65 years or older experience one or more falls each year. Fall-related injuries are a leading cause of hospitalization and can lead to functional independence. Many fall prevention interventions, often based on modifiable risk factors, have been studied. Apart from the magnitude of the benefits and harms from different interventions, the preferences of older adults for different interventions as well as the relative importance they place on the different potential outcomes may influence recommendations by guideline panels. These reviews on benefits and harms of interventions, and on patient values and preferences, will inform the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care to develop recommendations on fall prevention for primary care providers. METHODS: To review the benefits and harms of fall prevention interventions, we will update a previous systematic review of randomized controlled trials with adaptations to modify the classification of interventions and narrow the scope to community-dwelling older adults and primary-care relevant interventions. Four databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Ageline), reference lists, trial registries, and relevant websites will be searched, using limits for randomized trials and date (2016 onwards). We will classify interventions according to the Prevention of Falls Network Europe (ProFANE) Group's taxonomy. Outcomes include fallers, falls, injurious falls, fractures, hip fractures, institutionalization, health-related quality of life, functional status, and intervention-related adverse effects. For studies not included in the previous review, screening, study selection, data extraction on outcomes, and risk of bias assessments will be independently undertaken by two reviewers with consensus used for final decisions. Where quantitative analysis is suitable, network or pairwise meta-analysis will be conducted using a frequentist approach in Stata. Assessment of the transitivity and coherence of the network meta-analyses will be undertaken. For the reviews on patient preferences and outcome valuation (relative importance of outcomes), we will perform de novo reviews with searches in three databases (MEDLINE, PsycInfo, and CINAHL) and reference lists for cross-sectional, longitudinal quantitative, or qualitative studies published from 2000. Selection, data extraction, and risk of bias assessments suitable for each study design will be performed in duplicate. The analysis will be guided by a narrative synthesis approach, which may include meta-analysis for health-state utilities. We will use the CINeMa approach to a rate the certainty of the evidence for outcomes on intervention effects analyzed using network meta-analysis and the GRADE approach for all other outcomes. DISCUSSION: We will describe the flow of literature and characteristics of all studies and present results of all analyses and summary of finding tables. We will compare our findings to others and discuss the limitations of the reviews and the available literature. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: This protocol has not been registered.

GRADE Guidelines 30: the GRADE approach to assessing the certainty of modeled evidence-An overview in the context of health decision-making.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of the study is to present the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) conceptual approach to the assessment of certainty of evidence from modeling studies (i.e., certainty associated with model outputs). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Expert consultations and an international multidisciplinary workshop informed development of a conceptual approach to assessing the certainty of evidence from models within the context of systematic reviews, health technology assessments, and health care decisions. The discussions also clarified selected concepts and terminology used in the GRADE approach and by the modeling community. Feedback from experts in a broad range of modeling and health care disciplines addressed the content validity of the approach. RESULTS: Workshop participants agreed that the domains determining the certainty of evidence previously identified in the GRADE approach (risk of bias, indirectness, inconsistency, imprecision, reporting bias, magnitude of an effect, dose-response relation, and the direction of residual confounding) also apply when assessing the certainty of evidence from models. The assessment depends on the nature of model inputs and the model itself and on whether one is evaluating evidence from a single model or multiple models. We propose a framework for selecting the best available evidence from models: 1) developing de novo, a model specific to the situation of interest, 2) identifying an existing model, the outputs of which provide the highest certainty evidence for the situation of interest, either "off-the-shelf" or after adaptation, and 3) using outputs from multiple models. We also present a summary of preferred terminology to facilitate communication among modeling and health care disciplines. CONCLUSION: This conceptual GRADE approach provides a framework for using evidence from models in health decision-making and the assessment of certainty of evidence from a model or models. The GRADE Working Group and the modeling community are currently developing the detailed methods and related guidance for assessing specific domains determining the certainty of evidence from models across health care-related disciplines (e.g., therapeutic decision-making, toxicology, environmental health, and health economics).

Developing trustworthy recommendations as part of an urgent response (1-2 weeks): a GRADE concept paper.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to propose an approach for developing trustworthy recommendations as part of urgent responses (1-2 week) in the clinical, public health, and health systems fields. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We conducted a review of the literature, outlined a draft approach, refined the concept through iterative discussions, a workshop by the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation Rapid Guidelines project group, and obtained feedback from the larger Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation working group. RESULTS: A request for developing recommendations within 2 week is the usual trigger for an urgent response. Although the approach builds on the general principles of trustworthy guideline development, we highlight the following steps: (1) assess the level of urgency; (2) assess feasibility; (3) set up the organizational logistics; (4) specify the question(s); (5) collect the information needed; (6) assess the adequacy of identified information; (7) develop the recommendations using one of the 4 potential approaches: adopt existing recommendations, adapt existing recommendations, develop new recommendations using existing adequate systematic review, or develop new recommendations using expert panel input; and (8) consider an updating plan. CONCLUSION: An urgent response for developing recommendations requires building a cohesive, skilled, and highly motivated multidisciplinary team with the necessary clinical, scientific, and methodological expertise; adapting to shifting needs; complying with the principles of transparency; and properly managing conflicts of interest.

Comparative effectiveness of exercise interventions for preventing falls in older adults: A secondary analysis of a systematic review with network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Systematic reviews have established that exercise reduces falls in older adults, however the most effective types of exercise are not known. This secondary analysis determined the comparative effectiveness of fall prevention exercise approaches. METHOD: All fall prevention exercise interventions for older adults were identified from an existing search from inception until April 2017. Interventions were coded using a framework of 25 exercise types. Two reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data, and appraised risk of bias. Pairwise meta-analysis and network meta-analysis (NMA) were conducted. P-scores were used to rank exercise combinations. RESULTS: One hundred and sixty-nine studies were included. NMA was conducted on 73 studies (30,697 participants) for the outcome of number of fallers. The exercise combination ranked with the greatest likelihood of being most effective relative to no exercise was: anticipatory control, dynamic stability, functional stability limits, reactive control and flexibility (p-score = 0.95). This exercise combination also significantly reduced number of fallers compared to 16 other combinations. No exercise combination had a significantly greater effect on reducing number of fallers more than this combination. CONCLUSION: This analysis identified components of effective fall prevention exercise. The results can inform evidence-informed exercise recommendations and be used to design effective programs.

Predictors of Prolonged Opioid Use After Initial Prescription for Acute Musculoskeletal Injuries in Adults : A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Observational Studies.

BACKGROUND: Opioids are frequently prescribed for acute musculoskeletal injuries and may result in long-term use and consequent harms. PURPOSE: To explore factors associated with persistent opioid use after its prescription for acute musculoskeletal injury. DATA SOURCES: Searches of multiple electronic databases, without language restrictions, from inception to 6 January 2020, and reference lists of selected articles. STUDY SELECTION: Observational studies of adults with opioid prescriptions for outpatient acute musculoskeletal injuries, in an adjusted model, that explored risk factors for prolonged use. DATA EXTRACTION: 6 reviewers, working in pairs, independently extracted data, rated the quality of studies, and evaluated the certainty of evidence. DATA SYNTHESIS: 14 cohorts with 13 263 393 participants were included. The overall prevalence of prolonged opioid use after musculoskeletal injury for high-risk populations (that is, patients receiving workers' compensation benefits, Veterans Affairs claimants, or patients with high rates of concurrent substance use disorder) was 27% (95% CI, 18% to 37%). The prevalence among low-risk populations was 6% (CI, 4% to 8%; P for interaction < 0.001). Moderate-certainty evidence showed increased odds of persistent opioid use with older age (absolute risk increase [ARI] for every 10-year increase, 1.1% [CI, 0.7% to 1.5%]) and physical comorbidity (ARI, 0.9% [CI, 0.1% to 1.7%]). Low-certainty evidence suggested increased risk for persistent opioid use with past or current substance use disorder (ARI, 10.5% [CI, 4.2% to 19.8%]), prescriptions lasting more than 7 days (median ARI, 4.5%), and higher morphine milligram equivalents per day. LIMITATION: Sparse, heterogeneous data with suboptimal adjustment for potential confounders. CONCLUSION: Avoiding prescribing opioids for acute musculoskeletal injuries to patients with past or current substance use disorder, and restricting duration to 7 days or less and using lower doses when they are prescribed, are potentially important targets to reduce rates of persistent opioid use. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Safety Council. (PROSPERO: CRD42018104968).