Dry hydroclimates in the late Palaeocene-early Eocene hothouse world.

Extreme global warming can produce hydroclimate changes that remain poorly understood for sub-tropical latitudes. Late Palaeocene-early Eocene (LPEE; ~58-52 Ma) proto-Mediterranean zones of the western Tethys offer opportunities to assess hydroclimate responses to massive carbon cycle perturbations. Here, we reconstruct LPEE hydroclimate conditions of these regions and find that carbon cycle perturbations exerted controls on orbitally forced hydroclimate variability. Long-term (~6 Myr) carbon cycle changes induced a gradual precipitation/moisture reduction, which was exacerbated by some short-lived (<200 kyr) carbon cycle perturbations that caused rapid warming and exceptionally dry conditions in western Tethyan continental areas. Hydroclimate recovery following the greatest short-lived global warming events took ~24-27 kyr. These observations support the notion that anthropogenically driven warming can cause widespread aridification with impacts that may last tens of thousands of years.

Sustained North Atlantic warming drove anomalously intense MIS 11c interglacial.

The Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11c interglacial and its preceding glacial termination represent an enigmatically intense climate response to relatively weak insolation forcing. So far, a lack of radiometric age control has confounded a detailed assessment of the insolation-climate relationship during this period. Here, we present 230Th-dated speleothem proxy data from northern Italy and compare them with palaeoclimate records from the North Atlantic region. We find that interglacial conditions started in subtropical to middle latitudes at 423.1 ± 1.3 thousand years (kyr) before present, during a first weak insolation maximum, whereas northern high latitudes remained glaciated (sea level ~ 40 m below present). Some 14.5 ± 2.8 kyr after this early subtropical onset, peak interglacial conditions were reached globally, with sea level 6-13 m above present, despite weak insolation forcing. We attribute this remarkably intense climate response to an exceptionally long (~15 kyr) episode of intense poleward heat flux transport prior to the MIS 11c optimum.

Global warming-induced Asian hydrological climate transition across the Miocene-Pliocene boundary.

Across the Miocene-Pliocene boundary (MPB; 5.3 million years ago, Ma), late Miocene cooling gave way to the early-to-middle Pliocene Warm Period. This transition, across which atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased to levels similar to present, holds potential for deciphering regional climate responses in Asia-currently home to more than half of the world's population- to global climate change. Here we find that CO2-induced MPB warming both increased summer monsoon moisture transport over East Asia, and enhanced aridification over large parts of Central Asia by increasing evaporation, based on integration of our ~1-2-thousand-year (kyr) resolution summer monsoon records from the Chinese Loess Plateau aeolian red clay with existing terrestrial records, land-sea correlations, and climate model simulations. Our results offer palaeoclimate-based support for 'wet-gets-wetter and dry-gets-drier' projections of future regional hydroclimate responses to sustained anthropogenic forcing. Moreover, our high-resolution monsoon records reveal a dynamic response to eccentricity modulation of solar insolation, with predominant 405-kyr and ~100-kyr periodicities between 8.1 and 3.4 Ma.

Sea level and deep-sea temperature reconstructions suggest quasi-stable states and critical transitions over the past 40 million years.

Sea level and deep-sea temperature variations are key indicators of global climate changes. For continuous records over millions of years, deep-sea carbonate microfossil-based δ18O (δc) records are indispensable because they reflect changes in both deep-sea temperature and seawater δ18O (δw); the latter are related to ice volume and, thus, to sea level changes. Deep-sea temperature is usually resolved using elemental ratios in the same benthic microfossil shells used for δc, with linear scaling of residual δw to sea level changes. Uncertainties are large and the linear-scaling assumption remains untested. Here, we present a new process-based approach to assess relationships between changes in sea level, mean ice sheet δ18O, and both deep-sea δw and temperature and find distinct nonlinearity between sea level and δw changes. Application to δc records over the past 40 million years suggests that Earth's climate system has complex dynamical behavior, with threshold-like adjustments (critical transitions) that separate quasi-stable deep-sea temperature and ice-volume states.

Possible obliquity-forced warmth in southern Asia during the last glacial stage.

Orbital-scale global climatic changes during the late Quaternary are dominated by high-latitude influenced ~100,000-year global ice-age cycles and monsoon influenced ~23,000-year low-latitude hydroclimate variations. However, the shortage of highly-resolved land temperature records remains a limiting factor for achieving a comprehensive understanding of long-term low-latitude terrestrial climatic changes. Here, we report paired mean annual air temperature (MAAT) and monsoon intensity proxy records over the past 88,000 years from Lake Tengchongqinghai in southwestern China. While summer monsoon intensity follows the ~23,000-year precession beat found also in previous studies, we identify previously unrecognized warm periods at 88,000-71,000 and 45,000-22,000 years ago, with 2-3 °C amplitudes that are close to our recorded full glacial-interglacial range. Using advanced transient climate simulations and comparing with forcing factors, we find that these warm periods in our MAAT record probably depends on local annual mean insolation, which is controlled by Earth's ~41,000-year obliquity cycles and is anti-phased to annual mean insolation at high latitudes. The coincidence of our identified warm periods and intervals of high-frequent dated archaeological evidence highlights the importance of temperature on anatomically modern humans in Asia during the last glacial stage.

Orbital climate variability on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau across the Eocene-Oligocene transition.

The first major build-up of Antarctic glaciation occurred in two consecutive stages across the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT): the EOT-1 cooling event at ~34.1-33.9 Ma and the Oi-1 glaciation event at ~33.8-33.6 Ma. Detailed orbital-scale terrestrial environmental responses to these events remain poorly known. Here we present magnetic and geochemical climate records from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau margin that are dated precisely from ~35.5 to 31 Ma by combined magneto- and astro-chronology. These records suggest a hydroclimate transition at ~33.7 Ma from eccentricity dominated cycles to oscillations paced by a combination of eccentricity, obliquity, and precession, and confirm that major Asian aridification and cooling occurred at Oi-1. We conclude that this terrestrial orbital response transition coincided with a similar transition in the marine benthic δ18O record for global ice volume and deep-sea temperature variations. The dramatic reorganization of the Asian climate system coincident with Oi-1 was, thus, a response to coeval atmospheric CO2 decline and continental-scale Antarctic glaciation.

Asynchronous Antarctic and Greenland ice-volume contributions to the last interglacial sea-level highstand.

The last interglacial (LIG; ~130 to ~118 thousand years ago, ka) was the last time global sea level rose well above the present level. Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) contributions were insufficient to explain the highstand, so that substantial Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) reduction is implied. However, the nature and drivers of GrIS and AIS reductions remain enigmatic, even though they may be critical for understanding future sea-level rise. Here we complement existing records with new data, and reveal that the LIG contained an AIS-derived highstand from ~129.5 to ~125 ka, a lowstand centred on 125-124 ka, and joint AIS + GrIS contributions from ~123.5 to ~118 ka. Moreover, a dual substructure within the first highstand suggests temporal variability in the AIS contributions. Implied rates of sea-level rise are high (up to several meters per century; m c-1), and lend credibility to high rates inferred by ice modelling under certain ice-shelf instability parameterisations.

Comparing Climate Sensitivity, Past and Present.

Climate sensitivity represents the global mean temperature change caused by changes in the radiative balance of climate; it is studied for both present/future (actuo) and past (paleo) climate variations, with the former based on instrumental records and/or various types of model simulations. Paleo-estimates are often considered informative for assessments of actuo-climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, but this utility remains debated because of concerns about the impacts of uncertainties, assumptions, and incomplete knowledge about controlling mechanisms in the dynamic climate system, with its multiple interacting feedbacks and their potential dependence on the climate background state. This is exacerbated by the need to assess actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity over different timescales, with different drivers, and with different (data and/or model) limitations. Here, we visualize these impacts with idealized representations that graphically illustrate the nature of time-dependent actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity estimates, evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, agreements, and differences of the two approaches. We also highlight priorities for future research to improve the use of paleo-estimates in evaluations of current climate change.

Causes of ice age intensification across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition.

During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT; 1,200-800 kya), Earth's orbitally paced ice age cycles intensified, lengthened from ∼40,000 (∼40 ky) to ∼100 ky, and became distinctly asymmetrical. Testing hypotheses that implicate changing atmospheric CO2 levels as a driver of the MPT has proven difficult with available observations. Here, we use orbitally resolved, boron isotope CO2 data to show that the glacial to interglacial CO2 difference increased from ∼43 to ∼75 µatm across the MPT, mainly because of lower glacial CO2 levels. Through carbon cycle modeling, we attribute this decline primarily to the initiation of substantive dust-borne iron fertilization of the Southern Ocean during peak glacial stages. We also observe a twofold steepening of the relationship between sea level and CO2-related climate forcing that is suggestive of a change in the dynamics that govern ice sheet stability, such as that expected from the removal of subglacial regolith or interhemispheric ice sheet phase-locking. We argue that neither ice sheet dynamics nor CO2 change in isolation can explain the MPT. Instead, we infer that the MPT was initiated by a change in ice sheet dynamics and that longer and deeper post-MPT ice ages were sustained by carbon cycle feedbacks related to dust fertilization of the Southern Ocean as a consequence of larger ice sheets.

Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes.

Over the last decade, our understanding of climate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks complicate the interpretation of geological records as feedback strengths vary over time. In the geological past, the forcing timescales were different than at present, suggesting that the response may have behaved differently. Do these insights constrain the climate sensitivity relevant for the present day? In this paper, we review the progress made in theoretical understanding of climate sensitivity and on the estimation of climate sensitivity from proxy records. Particular focus lies on the background state dependence of feedback processes and on the impact of tipping points on the climate system. We suggest how to further use palaeo data to advance our understanding of the currently ongoing climate change.