The predictive validity of a Brain Care Score for late-life depression and a composite outcome of dementia, stroke, and late-life depression: data from the UK Biobank cohort.

Introduction: The 21-point Brain Care Score (BCS) is a novel tool designed to motivate individuals and care providers to take action to reduce the risk of stroke and dementia by encouraging lifestyle changes. Given that late-life depression is increasingly recognized to share risk factors with stroke and dementia, and is an important clinical endpoint for brain health, we tested the hypothesis that a higher BCS is associated with a reduced incidence of future depression. Additionally, we examined its association with a brain health composite outcome comprising stroke, dementia, and late-life depression. Methods: The BCS was derived from the United Kingdom Biobank baseline evaluation in participants with complete data on BCS items. Associations of BCS with the risk of subsequent incident late-life depression and the composite brain health outcome were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. These models were adjusted for age at baseline and sex assigned at birth. Results: A total of 363,323 participants were included in this analysis, with a median BCS at baseline of 12 (IQR: 11-14). There were 6,628 incident cases of late-life depression during a median follow-up period of 13 years. Each five-point increase in baseline BCS was associated with a 33% lower risk of incident late-life depression (95% CI: 29%-36%) and a 27% lower risk of the incident composite outcome (95% CI: 24%-30%). Discussion: These data further demonstrate the shared risk factors across depression, dementia, and stroke. The findings suggest that a higher BCS, indicative of healthier lifestyle choices, is significantly associated with a lower incidence of late-life depression and a composite brain health outcome. Additional validation of the BCS is warranted to assess the weighting of its components, its motivational aspects, and its acceptability and adaptability in routine clinical care worldwide.

The role of the gluteofemoral adipose tissue in cerebrovascular disease risk: evidence from a mendelian randomization and mediation analysis.

Objective: To explore causal associations between BMI-independent body fat distribution profiles and cerebrovascular disease risk, and to investigate potential mediators underlying these associations. Methods: Leveraging data from genome wide association studies of BMI-independent gluteofemoral (GFAT), abdominal subcutaneous (ASAT), and visceral (VAT) adipose tissue volumes in UK Biobank, we selected variants associated with each trait, and performed univariable and multivariable mendelian randomization (MR) analyses on ischemic stroke and subtypes (large artery (LAS), cardioembolic (CES), small vessel (SVS)). We used coronary artery disease (CAD), carotid intima media thickness (cIMT), and an MRI-confirmed lacunar stroke as positive controls. For significant associations, we explored the mediatory role of four possible mediator categories in mediation MR analyses. Results: Higher genetically proxied, BMI-independent GFAT volume was associated with decreased risk of ischemic stroke (FDR-p=0.0084), LAS (FDR-p=0.019), SVS (FDR-p<0.001), CAD (FDR-p<0.001), MRI-confirmed lacunar stroke (FDR-p=0.0053), and lower mean cIMT (FDR-p=0.0023), but not CES (FDR-p=0.749). Associations were largely consistent in pleiotropy- and sample structure-robust analyses. No association was observed between genetically proxied ASAT or VAT volumes and ischemic stroke/subtypes risk. In multivariable MR analyses, GFAT showed the most consistent independent association with ischemic stroke, LAS, and SVS. Common vascular risk factors were the predominant mediators in the GFAT-cerebrovascular disease axis, while adipose-tissue-specific adiponectin and leptin mediated a proportion of ischemic stroke and CAD risk. Interpretation: Genetically proxied, BMI-independent higher GFAT volume is associated with reduced cerebrovascular disease risk. Although this is largely mediated by common vascular risk factor modification, targeting adipose-tissue specific pathways may provide additional cardiovascular benefit.

Brain Care Score and Neuroimaging Markers of Brain Health in Asymptomatic Middle-Age Persons.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate associations between health-related behaviors as measured using the Brain Care Score (BCS) and neuroimaging markers of white matter injury. METHODS: This prospective cohort study in the UK Biobank assessed the BCS, a novel tool designed to empower patients to address 12 dementia and stroke risk factors. The BCS ranges from 0 to 21, with higher scores suggesting better brain care. Outcomes included white matter hyperintensities (WMH) volume, fractional anisotropy (FA), and mean diffusivity (MD) obtained during 2 imaging assessments, as well as their progression between assessments, using multivariable linear regression adjusted for age and sex. RESULTS: We included 34,509 participants (average age 55 years, 53% female) with no stroke or dementia history. At first and repeat imaging assessments, every 5-point increase in baseline BCS was linked to significantly lower WMH volumes (25% 95% CI [23%-27%] first, 33% [27%-39%] repeat) and higher FA (18% [16%-20%] first, 22% [15%-28%] repeat), with a decrease in MD (9% [7%-11%] first, 10% [4%-16%] repeat). In addition, a higher baseline BCS was associated with a 10% [3%-17%] reduction in WMH progression and FA decline over time. DISCUSSION: This study extends the impact of the BCS to neuroimaging markers of clinically silent cerebrovascular disease. Our results suggest that improving one's BCS could be a valuable intervention to prevent early brain health decline.

Effects of Aerobic Exercise on Brain Age and Health in Middle-Aged and Older Adults: A Single-Arm Pilot Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUNDS: Sleep disturbances are prevalent among elderly individuals. While polysomnography (PSG) serves as the gold standard for sleep monitoring, its extensive setup and data analysis procedures impose significant costs and time constraints, thereby restricting the long-term application within the general public. Our laboratory introduced an innovative biomarker, utilizing artificial intelligence algorithms applied to PSG data to estimate brain age (BA), a metric validated in cohorts with cognitive impairments. Nevertheless, the potential of exercise, which has been a recognized means of enhancing sleep quality in middle-aged and older adults to reduce BA, remains undetermined. METHODS: We conducted an exploratory study to evaluate whether 12 weeks of moderate-intensity exercise can improve cognitive function, sleep quality, and the brain age index (BAI), a biomarker computed from overnight sleep electroencephalogram (EEG), in physically inactive middle-aged and older adults. Home wearable devices were used to monitor heart rate and overnight sleep EEG over this period. The NIH Toolbox Cognition Battery, in-lab overnight polysomnography, cardiopulmonary exercise testing, and a multiplex cytokines assay were employed to compare pre- and post-exercise brain health, exercise capacity, and plasma proteins. RESULTS: In total, 26 participants completed the initial assessment and exercise program, and 24 completed all procedures. Data are presented as mean [lower 95% CI of mean, upper 95% CI of mean]. Participants significantly increased maximal oxygen consumption (Pre: 21.11 [18.98, 23.23], Post 22.39 [20.09, 24.68], mL/kg/min; effect size: -0.33) and decreased resting heart rate (Pre: 66.66 [63.62, 67.38], Post: 65.13 [64.25, 66.93], bpm; effect size: -0.02) and sleeping heart rate (Pre: 64.55 [61.87, 667.23], Post: 62.93 [60.78, 65.09], bpm; effect size: -0.15). Total cognitive performance (Pre: 111.1 [107.6, 114.6], Post: 115.2 [111.9, 118.5]; effect size: 0.49) was significantly improved. No significant differences were seen in BAI or measures of sleep macro- and micro-architecture. Plasma IL-4 (Pre: 0.24 [0.18, 0.3], Post: 0.33 [0.24, 0.42], pg/mL; effect size: 0.49) was elevated, while IL-8 (Pre: 5.5 [4.45, 6.55], Post: 4.3 [3.66, 5], pg/mL; effect size: -0.57) was reduced. CONCLUSIONS: Cognitive function was improved by a 12-week moderate-intensity exercise program in physically inactive middle-aged and older adults, as were aerobic fitness (VO2max) and plasma cytokine profiles. However, we found no measurable effects on sleep architecture or BAI. It remains to be seen whether a study with a larger sample size and more intensive or more prolonged exercise exposure can demonstrate a beneficial effect on sleep quality and brain age.

Genetic Variation and Stroke Recovery: The STRONG Study.

BACKGROUND: Genetic association studies can reveal biology and treatment targets but have received limited attention for stroke recovery. STRONG (Stroke, Stress, Rehabilitation, and Genetics) was a prospective, longitudinal (1-year), genetic study in adults with stroke at 28 US stroke centers. The primary aim was to examine the association that candidate genetic variants have with (1) motor/functional outcomes and (2) stress-related outcomes. METHODS: For motor/functional end points, 3 candidate gene variants (ApoE ε4, BDNF [brain-derived neurotrophic factor], and a dopamine polygenic score) were analyzed for associations with change in grip strength (3 months-baseline), function (3-month Stroke Impact Scale-Activities of Daily Living), mood (3-month Patient Health Questionnaire-8), and cognition (12-month telephone-Montreal Cognitive Assessment). For stress-related outcomes, 7 variants (serotonin transporter gene-linked promoter region, ACE [angiotensin-converting enzyme], oxytocin receptor, FKBP5 [FKBP prolyl isomerase 5], FAAH [fatty acid amide hydrolase], BDNF, and COMT [catechol-O-methyltransferase]) were assessed for associations with posttraumatic stress disorder ([PTSD]; PTSD Primary Care Scale) and depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-8) at 6 and 12 months; stress-related genes were examined as a function of poststroke stress level. Statistical models (linear, negative binomial, or Poisson regression) were based on response variable distribution; all included stroke severity, age, sex, and ancestry as covariates. Stroke subtype was explored secondarily. Data were Holm-Bonferroni corrected. A secondary replication analysis tested whether the rs1842681 polymorphism (identified in the GISCOME study [Genetics of Ischaemic Stroke Functional Outcome]) was related to 3-month modified Rankin Scale score in STRONG. RESULTS: The 763 enrollees were 63.1±14.9 (mean±SD) years of age, with a median initial National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score of 4 (interquartile range, 2-9); outcome data were available in n=515 at 3 months, n=500 at 6 months, and n=489 at 12 months. At 1 year poststroke, the rs6265 (BDNF) variant was associated with poorer cognition (0.9-point lower telephone-Montreal Cognitive Assessment score, P=1×10-5). For stress-related outcomes, rs4291 (ACE) and rs324420 (FAAH) were risk factors linking increased poststroke stress with higher 1-year depression and PTSD symptoms (P<0.05), while rs4680 (COMT) linked poststroke stress with lower 1-year depression and PTSD. Findings were unchanged when considering stroke subtype. STRONG replicated GISCOME: rs1842681 was associated with lower 3-month modified Rankin Scale score (P=3.2×10-5). CONCLUSIONS: This study identified genetic associations with cognitive function, depression, and PTSD 1 year poststroke. Genetic susceptibility to PTSD and depressive symptoms varied according to the amount of poststroke stress, underscoring the critical role of lived experiences in recovery. Together, the results suggest that genetic association studies provide insights into the biology of stroke recovery in humans.

Deep learning survival model predicts outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage from initial CT scan.

BACKGROUND: Predicting functional impairment after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) provides valuable information for planning of patient care and rehabilitation strategies. Current prognostic tools are limited in making long term predictions and require multiple expert-defined inputs and interpretation that make their clinical implementation challenging. This study aimed to predict long term functional impairment of ICH patients from admission non-contrast CT scans, leveraging deep learning models in a survival analysis framework. METHODS: We used the admission non-contrast CT scans from 882 patients from the Massachusetts General Hospital ICH Study for training, hyperparameter optimization, and model selection, and 146 patients from the Yale New Haven ICH Study for external validation of a deep learning model predicting functional outcome. Disability (modified Rankin scale [mRS] > 2), severe disability (mRS > 4), and dependent living status were assessed via telephone interviews after 6, 12, and 24 months. The prediction methods were evaluated by the c-index and compared with ICH score and FUNC score. RESULTS: Using non-contrast CT, our deep learning model achieved higher prediction accuracy of post-ICH dependent living, disability, and severe disability by 6, 12, and 24 months (c-index 0.742 [95% CI -0.700 to 0.778], 0.712 [95% CI -0.674 to 0.752], 0.779 [95% CI -0.733 to 0.832] respectively) compared with the ICH score (c-index 0.673 [95% CI -0.662 to 0.688], 0.647 [95% CI -0.637 to 0.661] and 0.697 [95% CI -0.675 to 0.717]) and FUNC score (c-index 0.701 [95% CI- 0.698 to 0.723], 0.668 [95% CI -0.657 to 0.680] and 0.727 [95% CI -0.708 to 0.753]). In the external independent Yale-ICH cohort, similar performance metrics were obtained for disability and severe disability (c-index 0.725 [95% CI -0.673 to 0.781] and 0.747 [95% CI -0.676 to 0.807], respectively). Similar AUC of predicting each outcome at 6 months, 1 and 2 years after ICH was achieved compared with ICH score and FUNC score. CONCLUSION: We developed a generalizable deep learning model to predict onset of dependent living and disability after ICH, which could help to guide treatment decisions, advise relatives in the acute setting, optimize rehabilitation strategies, and anticipate long-term care needs.

Educational attainment, severity and short-term prognosis of intracerebral haemorrhage.

Background: Educational attainment is a critical social determinant of health that impacts the risk and severity of incident ischaemic stroke, but less is known of its impact on intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). The objective of this study is to determine whether educational attainment is associated with ICH severity and short-term prognosis. Methods: Subjects were enrolled in a prospectively ascertained cohort with primary ICH from 1994 to 2020 at Massachusetts General Hospital. Educational attainment, medical history of ICH risk factors, ICH volume and ICH score were obtained on admission. The primary outcomes were ICH volume and the ICH score. Results: Of 2539 eligible patients eligible, the median age of the sample was 74 (IQR 64-82) and 2159 (85%) had high school-only education. 1655 (65%) presented with an ICH volume less than or equal to 30 mL and 1744 (69%) presented with an ICH score less than 3. In multivariable logistic regression analyses controlling for age, income, employment history and prestroke diagnoses of hypertension and coronary artery disease, patients with high school-only education were more likely to have an ICH volume greater than 30 mL compared with college diplomates (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.08) and more likely to have an ICH score of 3 or greater compared with college diplomates (OR 2.37, 95% CI 1.77 to 3.19). Discussion: Prestroke educational attainment is independently associated with ICH severity and short-term prognosis, with lower educational attainment associated with larger ICH volumes and higher ICH scores. Future studies should examine how educational attainment impacts exposure to traditional clinical risk factors.

Nutrition markers and discharge outcome in deep and lobar intracerebral hemorrhage.

INTRODUCTION: Malnutrition is common in stroke patients and has been associated with poor functional outcomes and increased mortality after stroke. Previous research on nutrition status and post-intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) outcomes, however, is limited and conflicting. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Monocenter study of patients with spontaneous deep or lobar ICH from a longitudinal cohort enrolling consecutive patients between 1994 and 2022. Nutrition status was assessed using admission body mass index (BMI), albumin, total bilirubin, cholesterol, c-reactive protein, hemoglobin a1c, high-density lipoprotein, hemoglobin, low-density lipoprotein, mean corpuscular volume, alanine transaminase, and triglycerides. Main outcome was favorable discharge outcome (mRS 0-2). Multivariable logistic regression was conducted with adjustment for baseline differences. RESULTS: Among 2170 patients, 1152 had deep and 1018 had lobar ICH. Overweight BMI was associated with higher odds of favorable discharge outcome in all (aOR = 3.01, 95% CI 1.59-5.69, p = 0.001) and lobar (aOR = 3.26, 95% CI 1.32-8.08, p = 0.011) ICH after adjustment for baseline differences. This association did not reach statistical significance in deep (aOR = 2.77, 95% CI 0.99-7.72, p = 0.052) ICH. No lab values were associated with functional outcome in all, deep, or lobar ICH after adjustment. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Overweight BMI was associated with favorable discharge status after ICH. These findings could inform future studies to determine whether overweight BMI has a protective effect in ICH patients.

Hypertension control after intracerebral hemorrhage among varying small vessel disease etiologies.

INTRODUCTION: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is attributable to cerebral small vessel disease (cSVD), which includes cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) and hypertensive-cSVD (HTN-cSVD). HTN-cSVD includes patients with strictly deep ICH/microbleeds and mixed location ICH/microbleeds, the latter representing a more severe form of HTN-cSVD. We test the hypothesis that more severe forms of HTN-cSVD are related to worse hypertension control in long-term follow-up after ICH. METHODS: From consecutive non-traumatic ICH patients admitted to a tertiary care center, we classified the ICH as CAA, strictly deep ICH/microbleeds, and mixed-location ICH/microbleeds. CSVD burden was quantified using a validated MRI-based score (range: 0-6 points). We created a multivariable (linear mixed effects) model adjusting for age, sex, race, year of inclusion, hypertension, and antihypertensive medication usage to investigate the association of average systolic blood pressure (SBP) during follow-up with cSVD etiology/severity. RESULTS: 796 ICH survivors were followed for a median of 48.8 months (IQR 41.5-60.4). CAA-related ICH survivors (n = 373) displayed a lower median SBP (138 mmHg, IQR 133-142 mmHg) compared to those of strictly deep ICH (n = 222, 141 mmHg, IQR 136-143 mmHg, p = 0.04), and mixed location ICH/microbleeds (n = 201, 142 mmHg, IQR 135-144 mmHg, p = 0.02). In the multivariable analysis, mixed location ICH/microbleeds (effect: + 3.8 mmHg, SE: 1.3 mmHg, p = 0.01) and increasing cSVD severity (+ 1.8 mmHg per score point, SE: 0.8 mmHg, p = 0.03) were associated with higher SBP in follow-up. CONCLUSION: CSVD severity and subtype predicts long-term hypertension control in ICH patients.

Predicting post-stroke cognitive impairment using electronic health record data.

BACKGROUND: Secondary prevention interventions to reduce post-stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI) can be aided by the early identification of high-risk individuals who would benefit from risk factor modification. AIMS: To develop and evaluate a predictive model to identify patients at increased risk of PSCI over 5 years using data easily accessible from electronic health records. METHODS: Cohort study that included primary care patients from two academic medical centers. Patients were aged 45 years or older, without prior stroke or prevalent cognitive impairment, with primary care visits and an incident ischemic stroke between 2003 and 2016 (development/internal validation cohort) or 2010 and 2022 (external validation cohort). Predictors of PSCI were ascertained from the electronic health record. The outcome was incident dementia/cognitive impairment within 5 years and beginning 3 months following stroke, ascertained using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth/Tenth Revision (ICD-9/10) codes. For model variable selection, we considered potential predictors of PSCI and constructed 400 bootstrap samples with two-thirds of the model derivation sample. We ran 10-fold cross-validated Cox proportional hazards models using a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty. Variables selected in >25% of samples were included. RESULTS: The analysis included 332 incident diagnoses of PSCI in the development cohort (n = 3741), and 161 and 128 incident diagnoses in the internal (n = 1925) and external (n = 2237) validation cohorts, respectively. The C-statistic for predicting PSCI was 0.731 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.694-0.768) in the internal validation cohort, and 0.724 (95% CI: 0.681-0.766) in the external validation cohort. A risk score based on the beta coefficients of predictors from the development cohort stratified patients into low (0-7 points), intermediate (8-11 points), and high (12-23 points) risk groups. The hazard ratios (HRs) for incident PSCI were significantly different by risk categories in internal (high, HR: 6.2, 95% CI: 4.1-9.3; Intermediate, HR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.8-4.1) and external (high, HR: 6.1, 95% CI: 3.9-9.6; Intermediate, HR: 2.8, 95% CI: 1.9-4.3) validation cohorts. CONCLUSION: Five-year risk of PSCI can be accurately predicted using routinely collected data. Model output can be used to risk stratify and identify individuals at increased risk for PSCI for preventive efforts. DATA ACCESS STATEMENT: Mass General Brigham data contain protected health information and cannot be shared publicly. The data processing scripts used to perform analyses will be made available to interested researchers upon reasonable request to the corresponding author.

Treating Hypertension: Important for Heart Health, Fundamental for Brain Health.

The Brain Health crisis stands as one of humankind's most pressing threats, with age-related noncommunicable brain diseases, particularly stroke, and dementia, affecting hundreds of millions annually and jeopardizing the economic well-being of populations worldwide. Epidemiological studies indicate that ≈40% of dementia and 60% of stroke cases are attributable to modifiable risk factors. In this Comments and Opinions article, we underscore the pivotal role of blood pressure (BP) control in reducing suffering, enhancing economic well-being, and promoting healthy longevity for populations worldwide. Emphasizing that BP control is crucial for both brain and heart health, it advocates for heightened awareness, positioning hypertension as a primary focus for preventing dementia and stroke with potential global impact. Despite its significance, BP control encounters global challenges, with proportions of the population maintaining adequately controlled hypertension ranging from 23% to 90%. The World Health Organization estimated that 46% of the 1.28 billion people with hypertension are unaware of their elevated BP. Given the notable disparities in BP management, addressing BP management also contributes to combating significant health inequalities. The next time you are faced with a patient anxious about the prospect of experiencing a fate similar to a parent with dementia or a sister with a stroke, we suggest a straightforward answer for health care providers: start ensuring BP control. BP is a matter of brain health, and it is a matter of our economic future.

Rationale and Design of the Statins Use in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Patients (SATURN) Trial.

INTRODUCTION: The benefits and risks of HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor (statin) drugs in survivors of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) are unclear. Observational studies suggest an association between statin use and increased risk of lobar ICH, particularly in patients with apolipoprotein-E (APOE) ε2 and ε4 genotypes. There are no randomized controlled trials (RCTs) addressing the effects of statins after ICH leading to uncertainty as to whether statins should be used in patients with lobar ICH who are at high risk for ICH recurrence. The SATURN trial aims to evaluate the effects of continuation versus discontinuation of statin on the risk of ICH recurrence and ischemic major adverse cerebro-cardio-vascular events (MACCE) in patients with lobar ICH. Secondary aims include the assessment of whether the APOE genotype modifies the effects of statins on ICH recurrence, functional and cognitive outcomes and quality of life. METHODS: The SATURN trial is a multi-center, pragmatic, prospective, randomized, open-label, Phase III clinical trial with blinded end-point assessment. A planned total of 1456 patients with lobar ICH will be recruited from 140 sites in the United States, Canada and Spain. Patients presenting within seven days of a spontaneous lobar ICH that occurred while taking a statin, will be randomized (1:1) to continuation (control) vs. discontinuation (intervention) of the same statin drug and dose that they were using at ICH onset. The primary outcome is the time to recurrent symptomatic ICH within a two-year follow-up period. The primary safety outcome is the occurrence of ischemic MACCE. CONCLUSION: The results will help to determine the best strategy for statin use in survivors of lobar ICH and may help to identify if there is a subset of patients who would benefit from statins.

Long-Term Outcomes in Patients With Spontaneous Cerebellar Hemorrhage: An International Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in the cerebellum has a poor short-term prognosis, whereas data on the long-term case fatality and recurrent vascular events are sparse. Herewith, we aimed to assess the long-term case fatality and recurrence rate of vascular events after a first cerebellar ICH. METHODS: In this international cohort study, we included patients from 10 hospitals (the United States and Europe from 1997 to 2017) aged ≥18 years with a first spontaneous cerebellar ICH who were discharged alive. Data on long-term case fatality and recurrence of vascular events (recurrent ICH [supratentoria or infratentorial], ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or major vascular surgery) were collected for survival analysis and absolute event rate calculation. RESULTS: We included 405 patients with cerebellar ICH (mean age [SD], 72 [13] years, 49% female). The median survival time was 67 months (interquartile range, 23-100 months), with a cumulative survival rate of 34% at 10-year follow-up (median follow-up time per center ranged: 15-80 months). In the 347 patients with data on vascular events 92 events occurred in 78 patients, after initial cerebellar ICH: 31 (8.9%) patients had a recurrent ICH (absolute event rate, 1.8 per 100 patient-years [95% CI, 1.2-2.6]), 39 (11%) had an ischemic stroke (absolute event rate, 2.3 [95% CI, 1.6-3.2]), 13 (3.7%) had a myocardial infarction (absolute event rate, 0.8 [95% CI, 0.4-1.3]), and 5 (1.4%) underwent major vascular surgery (absolute event rate, 0.3 [95% CI, 0.1-0.7]). The median time to a first vascular event during follow-up was 27 months (interquartile range, 8.7-50 months), with a cumulative hazard of 47% at 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: The long-term prognosis of patients who survive a first spontaneous cerebellar ICH is poor and comparable to that of patients who survive a first supratentorial ICH. Further identification of patients at high risk of vascular events following the initial cerebellar ICH is needed. Including patients with cerebellar ICH in randomized controlled trials on secondary prevention of patients with ICH is warranted.

Predicting post-stroke cognitive impairment using electronic health record data.

Importance: Secondary prevention interventions to reduce post-stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI) can be aided by the early identification of high-risk individuals who would benefit from risk factor modification. Objective: To develop and evaluate a predictive model to identify patients at increased risk of PSCI over 5 years using data easily accessible from electronic health records. Design: Cohort study with patients enrolled between 2003-2016 with follow-up through 2022. Setting: Primary care practices affiliated with two academic medical centers. Participants: Individuals 45 years or older, without prior stroke or prevalent cognitive impairment, with primary care visits and an incident ischemic stroke between 2003-2016 (development/internal validation cohort) or 2010-2022 (external validation cohort). Exposures: Predictors of PSCI were ascertained from the electronic health record. Main Outcome: The outcome was incident dementia/cognitive impairment within 5 years and beginning 3 months following stroke, ascertained using ICD-9/10 codes. For model variable selection, we considered potential predictors of PSCI and constructed 400 bootstrap samples with two-thirds of the model derivation sample. We ran 10-fold cross-validated Cox proportional hazards models using a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty. Variables selected in >25% of samples were included. Results: The analysis included 332 incident diagnoses of PSCI in the development cohort (n=3,741), and 161 and 128 incident diagnoses in the internal (n=1,925) and external (n=2,237) validation cohorts. The c-statistic for predicting PSCI was 0.731 (95% CI: 0.694-0.768) in the internal validation cohort, and 0.724 (95% CI: 0.681-0.766) in the external validation cohort. A risk score based on the beta coefficients of predictors from the development cohort stratified patients into low (0-7 points), intermediate (8-11 points), and high (12-35 points) risk groups. The hazard ratios for incident PSCI were significantly different by risk categories in internal (High, HR: 6.2, 95% CI 4.1-9.3; Intermediate, HR 2.7, 95% CI: 1.8-4.1) and external (High, HR: 6.1, 95% CI: 3.9-9.6; Intermediate, HR 2.8, 95% CI: 1.9-4.3) validation cohorts. Conclusions and Relevance: Five-year risk of PSCI can be accurately predicted using routinely collected data. Model output can be used to risk stratify and identify individuals at increased risk for PSCI for preventive efforts.

Assessing Risk of Health Outcomes From Brain Activity in Sleep: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background and Objectives: Patterns of electrical activity in the brain (EEG) during sleep are sensitive to various health conditions even at subclinical stages. The objective of this study was to estimate sleep EEG-predicted incidence of future neurologic, cardiovascular, psychiatric, and mortality outcomes. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study with 2 data sets. The Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) sleep data set is a clinic-based cohort, used for model development. The Sleep Heart Health Study (SHHS) is a community-based cohort, used as the external validation cohort. Exposure is good, average, or poor sleep defined by quartiles of sleep EEG-predicted risk. The outcomes include ischemic stroke, intracranial hemorrhage, mild cognitive impairment, dementia, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, bipolar disorder, depression, and mortality. Diagnoses were based on diagnosis codes, brain imaging reports, medications, cognitive scores, and hospital records. We used the Cox survival model with death as the competing risk. Results: There were 8673 participants from MGH and 5650 from SHHS. For all outcomes, the model-predicted 10-year risk was within the 95% confidence interval of the ground truth, indicating good prediction performance. When comparing participants with poor, average, and good sleep, except for atrial fibrillation, all other 10-year risk ratios were significant. The model-predicted 10-year risk ratio closely matched the observed event rate in the external validation cohort. Discussion: The incidence of health outcomes can be predicted by brain activity during sleep. The findings strengthen the concept of sleep as an accessible biological window into unfavorable brain and general health outcomes.

Deep Resequencing of the 1q22 Locus in Non-Lobar Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE: Genome-wide association studies have identified 1q22 as a susceptibility locus for cerebral small vessel diseases, including non-lobar intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and lacunar stroke. In the present study, we performed targeted high-depth sequencing of 1q22 in ICH cases and controls to further characterize this locus and prioritize potential causal mechanisms, which remain unknown. METHODS: A total of 95,000 base pairs spanning 1q22, including SEMA4A, SLC25A44, and PMF1/PMF1-BGLAP were sequenced in 1,055 spontaneous ICH cases (534 lobar and 521 non-lobar) and 1,078 controls. Firth regression and Rare Variant Influential Filtering Tool analysis were used to analyze common and rare variants, respectively. Chromatin interaction analyses were performed using Hi-C, chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by sequencing, and chromatin interaction analysis with paired-end tag databases. Multivariable Mendelian randomization assessed whether alterations in gene-specific expression relative to regionally co-expressed genes at 1q22 could be causally related to ICH risk. RESULTS: Common and rare variant analyses prioritized variants in SEMA4A 5'-UTR and PMF1 intronic regions, overlapping with active promoter and enhancer regions based on ENCODE annotation. Hi-C data analysis determined that 1q22 is spatially organized in a single chromatin loop, and that the genes therein belong to the same topologically associating domain. Chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by sequencing and chromatin interaction analysis with paired-end tag data analysis highlighted the presence of long-range interactions between the SEMA4A-promoter and PMF1-enhancer regions prioritized by association testing. Multivariable Mendelian randomization analyses demonstrated that PMF1 overexpression could be causally related to non-lobar ICH risk. INTERPRETATION: Altered promoter-enhancer interactions leading to PMF1 overexpression, potentially dysregulating polyamine catabolism, could explain demonstrated associations with non-lobar ICH risk at 1q22, offering a potential new target for prevention of ICH and cerebral small vessel disease. ANN NEUROL 2024;95:325-337.

Genetic variation supports a causal role for valproate in prevention of ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: Valproate is a candidate for ischemic stroke prevention due to its anti-atherosclerotic effects in vivo. Although valproate use is associated with decreased ischemic stroke risk in observational studies, confounding by indication precludes causal conclusions. AIMS: We applied Mendelian randomization to determine whether genetic variants that influence seizure response among valproate users associate with ischemic stroke. METHODS: We derived a genetic score for valproate response using genome-wide association data of seizure response after valproate intake from the Epilepsy Pharmacogenomics Consortium. We then tested this score among valproate users of the UK Biobank for association with incident and recurrent ischemic stroke using Cox proportional hazard models. As replication, we tested found associations in an independent cohort of valproate users of the Mass General Brigham Biobank. RESULTS: Among 2150 valproate users (mean 56 years, 54% females), 82 ischemic strokes occurred over a mean 12 year follow-up. Higher valproate response genetic score was associated with higher serum valproate levels (+5.78 µg/ml per 1 standard deviation (SD), 95% confidence interval (CI) (3.45, 8.11)). After adjusting for age and sex, higher valproate response genetic score was associated with lower ischemic stroke risk (hazard ratio (HR) per 1 SD 0.73, 95% CI (0.58, 0.91)) with a halving of absolute risk in the highest compared to the lowest score tertile (4.8% vs 2.5%, p trend = 0.027). Among 194 valproate users with prevalent stroke at baseline, a higher valproate response genetic score was associated with lower recurrent ischemic stroke risk (HR per 1 SD 0.53, 95% CI (0.32, 0.86)) with reduced absolute risk in the highest compared to the lowest score tertile (3/51, 5.9% vs 13/71, 18.3%, p trend = 0.026). The valproate response genetic score was not associated with ischemic stroke among the 427,997 valproate non-users (p = 0.61), suggesting minimal pleiotropy. In 1241 valproate users of the Mass General Brigham Biobank with 99 ischemic stroke events over 6.5 years follow-up, we replicated our observed associations between the valproate response genetic score and ischemic stroke (HR per 1 SD 0.77, 95% CI (0.61, 0.97)). CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate that a genetically predicted favorable seizure response to valproate is associated with higher serum valproate levels and reduced ischemic stroke risk among valproate users, providing causal support for valproate effectiveness in ischemic stroke prevention. The strongest effect was found for recurrent ischemic stroke, suggesting potential dual-use benefits of valproate for post-stroke epilepsy. Clinical trials will be required in order to identify populations that may benefit most from valproate for stroke prevention. DATA ACCESS STATEMENT: UK Biobank participant data are available after approval of a research proposal. The weights of the used genetic scores are available in the Supplemental Tables.

Proteogenomic Data Integration Reveals CXCL10 as a Potentially Downstream Causal Mediator for IL-6 Signaling on Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Genetic and experimental studies support a causal involvement of IL-6 (interleukin-6) signaling in atheroprogression. Although trials targeting IL-6 signaling are underway, any benefits must be balanced against an impaired host immune response. Dissecting the mechanisms that mediate the effects of IL-6 signaling on atherosclerosis could offer insights about novel drug targets with more specific effects. METHODS: Leveraging data from 522 681 individuals, we constructed a genetic instrument of 26 variants in the gene encoding the IL-6R (IL-6 receptor) that proxied for pharmacological IL-6R inhibition. Using Mendelian randomization, we assessed its effects on 3281 plasma proteins quantified with an aptamer-based assay in the INTERVAL cohort (n=3301). Using mediation Mendelian randomization, we explored proteomic mediators of the effects of genetically proxied IL-6 signaling on coronary artery disease, large artery atherosclerotic stroke, and peripheral artery disease. For significant mediators, we tested associations of their circulating levels with incident cardiovascular events in a population-based study (n=1704) and explored the histological, transcriptomic, and cellular phenotypes correlated with their expression levels in samples from human atherosclerotic lesions. RESULTS: We found significant effects of genetically proxied IL-6 signaling on 70 circulating proteins involved in cytokine production/regulation and immune cell recruitment/differentiation, which correlated with the proteomic effects of pharmacological IL-6R inhibition in a clinical trial. Among the 70 significant proteins, genetically proxied circulating levels of CXCL10 (C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 10) were associated with risk of coronary artery disease, large artery atherosclerotic stroke, and peripheral artery disease, with up to 67% of the effects of genetically downregulated IL-6 signaling on these end points mediated by decreases in CXCL10. Higher midlife circulating CXCL10 levels were associated with a larger number of cardiovascular events over 20 years, whereas higher CXCL10 expression in human atherosclerotic lesions correlated with a larger lipid core and a transcriptomic profile reflecting immune cell infiltration, adaptive immune system activation, and cytokine signaling. CONCLUSIONS: Integrating multiomics data, we found a proteomic signature of IL-6 signaling activation and mediators of its effects on cardiovascular disease. Our analyses suggest the interferon-γ-inducible chemokine CXCL10 to be a potentially causal mediator for atherosclerosis in 3 vascular compartments and, as such, could serve as a promising drug target for atheroprotection.

The predictive validity of a Brain Care Score for dementia and stroke: data from the UK Biobank cohort.

Introduction: The 21-point Brain Care Score (BCS) was developed through a modified Delphi process in partnership with practitioners and patients to promote behavior changes and lifestyle choices in order to sustainably reduce the risk of dementia and stroke. We aimed to assess the associations of the BCS with risk of incident dementia and stroke. Methods: The BCS was derived from the United Kingdom Biobank (UKB) baseline evaluation for participants aged 40-69 years, recruited between 2006-2010. Associations of BCS and risk of subsequent incident dementia and stroke were estimated using Cox proportional hazard regressions, adjusted for sex assigned at birth and stratified by age groups at baseline. Results: The BCS (median: 12; IQR:11-14) was derived for 398,990 UKB participants (mean age: 57; females: 54%). There were 5,354 incident cases of dementia and 7,259 incident cases of stroke recorded during a median follow-up of 12.5 years. A five-point higher BCS at baseline was associated with a 59% (95%CI: 40-72%) lower risk of dementia among participants aged <50. Among those aged 50-59, the figure was 32% (95%CI: 20-42%) and 8% (95%CI: 2-14%) for those aged >59 years. A five-point higher BCS was associated with a 48% (95%CI: 39-56%) lower risk of stroke among participants aged <50, 52% (95%CI, 47-56%) among those aged 50-59, and 33% (95%CI, 29-37%) among those aged >59. Discussion: The BCS has clinically relevant and statistically significant associations with risk of dementia and stroke in approximately 0.4 million UK people. Future research includes investigating the feasibility, adaptability and implementation of the BCS for patients and providers worldwide.