Life Cycle Economic and Environmental Assessment of Producing Synthetic Jet Fuel Using CO2/Biomass Feedstocks.

The aviation industry is responsible for over 2% of global CO2 emissions. Synthetic jet fuels generated from biogenic feedstocks could help reduce life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to petroleum-based fuels. This study assesses three processes for producing synthetic jet fuel via the synthesis of methanol using water and atmospheric CO2 or biomass. A life cycle assessment and cost analysis are conducted to determine GHG emissions, energy demand, land occupation, water depletion, and the cost of producing synthetic jet fuel in Switzerland. The results reveal that the pathway that directly hydrogenates CO2 to methanol exhibits the largest reductions in terms of GHG emission (almost 50%) compared to conventional jet fuel and the lowest production cost (7.86 EUR kgJF-1); however, its production cost is currently around 7 times higher than the petroleum-based counterpart. Electrical energy was found to be crucial in capturing CO2 and converting water into hydrogen, with the sourcing and processing of the feedstocks contributing to 79% of the electric energy demand. Furthermore, significant variations in synthetic jet fuel cost and GHG emissions were shown when the electricity source varies, such as utilizing grid electricity pertaining to different countries with distinct electricity mixes. Thus, upscaling synthetic jet fuels requires energy-efficient supply chains, sufficient feedstock, large amounts of additional (very) low-carbon energy capacity, suitable climate policy, and comprehensive environmental analyses.

A prospective life cycle assessment of global ammonia decarbonisation scenarios.

A prospective life cycle assessment was performed for global ammonia production across 26 regions from 2020 to 2050. The analysis was based on the IEA Ammonia Roadmap and IMAGE electricity scenarios model for three climate scenarios related to a mean surface temperature increase of 3.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C by 2100. Combining these models with a global perspective and new life cycle inventories improves ammonia's robustness, quality, and applicability in prospective life cycle assessments. It reveals that complete decarbonisation of the ammonia industry by 2050 is unlikely from a life cycle perspective because of residual emissions in the supply chain, even in the most ambitious scenario. However, strong policies in the 1.5 °C scenario could significantly reduce climate impacts by up to 70% per kilogram of ammonia. The cumulative greenhouse gas emissions from the ammonia supply chain between 2020 and 2050 are estimated at 24, 21, and 15 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent for the 3.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C scenarios, respectively. The paper examines challenges in achieving these scenarios, noting that electrolysis-based (yellow) ammonia, contingent on electricity decarbonisation, offers a cleaner production pathway. However, achieving significant GHG reductions is complex, requiring advancements in technologies with lower readiness, like carbon capture and storage and methane pyrolysis. The study also discusses limitations such as the need to reduce urea demand, potential growth in ammonia as a fuel, reliance on CO2 transport and storage, expansion of renewable energy, raw material scarcity, and the longevity of existing plants. It highlights potential shifts in environmental impacts, such as increased land, metal, and mineral use in scenarios with growing renewable electricity and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage.

How to make climate-neutral aviation fly.

The European aviation sector must substantially reduce climate impacts to reach net-zero goals. This reduction, however, must not be limited to flight CO2 emissions since such a narrow focus leaves up to 80% of climate impacts unaccounted for. Based on rigorous life-cycle assessment and a time-dependent quantification of non-CO2 climate impacts, here we show that, from a technological standpoint, using electricity-based synthetic jet fuels and compensating climate impacts via direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) can enable climate-neutral aviation. However, with a continuous increase in air traffic, synthetic jet fuel produced with electricity from renewables would exert excessive pressure on economic and natural resources. Alternatively, compensating climate impacts of fossil jet fuel via DACCS would require massive CO2 storage volumes and prolong dependence on fossil fuels. Here, we demonstrate that a European climate-neutral aviation will fly if air traffic is reduced to limit the scale of the climate impacts to mitigate.

Trade-off between critical metal requirement and transportation decarbonization in automotive electrification.

Automotive electrification holds the promise of mitigating transportation-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, yet at the expense of growing demand for critical metals. Here, we analyze the trade-off between the decarbonization potential of the road transportation sector and its critical metal requirement from the demand-side perspective in 48 major countries committing to decarbonize their road transportation sectors aided by electric vehicles (EVs). Our results demonstrate that deploying EVs with 40-100% penetration by 2050 can increase lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese demands by 2909-7513%, 2127-5426%, 1039-2684%, and 1099-2838%, respectively, and grow platinum group metal requirement by 131-179% in the 48 investigated countries, relative to 2020. Higher EV penetration reduces GHG emissions from fuel use regardless of the transportation energy transition, while those from fuel production are more sensitive to energy-sector decarbonization and could reach nearly "net zero" by 2040.

Linking Life Cycle and Integrated Assessment Modeling to Evaluate Technologies in an Evolving System Context: A Power-to-Hydrogen Case Study for the United States.

Carbon-neutral hydrogen (H2) can reduce emissions from hard-to-electrify sectors and contribute to a net-zero greenhouse gas economy by 2050. Power-to-hydrogen (PtH2) technologies based on clean electricity can provide such H2, yet their carbon intensities alone do not provide sufficient basis to judge their potential contribution to a sustainable and just energy transition. Introducing a prospective life cycle assessment framework to decipher the non-linear relationships between future technology and energy system dynamics over time, we showcase its relevance to inform research, development, demonstration, and deployment by comparing two PtH2 technologies to steam methane reforming (SMR) across a series of environmental and resource-use metrics. We find that the system transitions in the power, cement, steel, and fuel sectors move impacts for both PtH2 technologies to equal or lower levels by 2100 compared to 2020 per kg of H2 except for metal depletion. The decarbonization of the United States power sector by 2035 allows PtH2 to reach parity with SMR at 10 kg of CO2e/kg H2 between 2030 and 2050. Updated H2 radiative forcing and leakage levels only marginally affect these results. Biomass carbon removal and storage power technologies enable carbon-negative H2 after 2040 at about -15 kg of CO2e/kg H2. Still, both PtH2 processes exhibit higher impacts across most other metrics, some of which are worsened by the decarbonization of the power sector. Observed increases in metal depletion and eco- and human toxicity levels can be reduced via PtH2 energy and material use efficiency improvements, but the power sector decarbonization routes also warrant further review and cradle-to-grave assessments to show tradeoffs from a systems perspective.

Does Size Matter? The Influence of Size, Load Factor, Range Autonomy, and Application Type on the Life Cycle Assessment of Current and Future Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles.

The transparent, flexible, and open-source Python library carculator_truck is introduced to perform the life cycle assessment of a series of medium- and heavy-duty trucks across different powertrain types, size classes, fuel pathways, and years in a European context. Unsurprisingly, greenhouse gas emissions per ton-km reduce as size and load factor increase. By 2040, battery and fuel cell electric trucks appear to be promising options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions per ton-km on long distance segments, even where the required range autonomy is high. This requires that various conditions are met, such as improvements at the energy storage level and a drastic reduction of the greenhouse gas intensity of the electricity used for battery charging and hydrogen production. Meanwhile, these options may be considered for urban and regional applications, where they have a competitive advantage thanks to their superior engine efficiency. Finally, these alternative options will have to compete against more mature combustion-based technologies which, despite lower drivetrain efficiencies, are expected to reduce their exhaust emissions via engine improvements, hybridization of their powertrain, as well as the use of biomass-based and synthetic fuels.

The sponge effect and carbon emission mitigation potentials of the global cement cycle.

Cement plays a dual role in the global carbon cycle like a sponge: its massive production contributes significantly to present-day global anthropogenic CO2 emissions, yet its hydrated products gradually reabsorb substantial amounts of atmospheric CO2 (carbonation) in the future. The role of this sponge effect along the cement cycle (including production, use, and demolition) in carbon emissions mitigation, however, remains hitherto unexplored. Here, we quantify the effects of demand- and supply-side mitigation measures considering this material-energy-emissions-uptake nexus, finding that climate goals would be imperiled if the growth of cement stocks continues. Future reabsorption of CO2 will be significant (~30% of cumulative CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100), but climate goal compliant net CO2 emissions reduction along the global cement cycle will require both radical technology advancements (e.g., carbon capture and storage) and widespread deployment of material efficiency measures, which go beyond those envisaged in current technology roadmaps.