Designing a risk-based surveillance program for Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis in Norwegian dairy herds using multivariate statistical process control analysis.

Surveillance programs for animal diseases are critical to early disease detection and risk estimation and to documenting a population's disease status at a given time. The aim of this study was to describe a risk-based surveillance program for detecting Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection in Norwegian dairy cattle. The included risk factors for detecting MAP were purchase of cattle, combined cattle and goat farming, and location of the cattle farm in counties containing goats with MAP. The risk indicators included production data [culling of animals >3 yr of age, carcass conformation of animals >3 yr of age, milk production decrease in older lactating cows (lactations 3, 4, and 5)], and clinical data (diarrhea, enteritis, or both, in animals >3 yr of age). Except for combined cattle and goat farming and cattle farm location, all data were collected at the cow level and summarized at the herd level. Predefined risk factors and risk indicators were extracted from different national databases and combined in a multivariate statistical process control to obtain a risk assessment for each herd. The ordinary Hotelling's T(2) statistic was applied as a multivariate, standardized measure of difference between the current observed state and the average state of the risk factors for a given herd. To make the analysis more robust and adapt it to the slowly developing nature of MAP, monthly risk calculations were based on data accumulated during a 24-mo period. Monitoring of these variables was performed to identify outliers that may indicate deviance in one or more of the underlying processes. The highest-ranked herds were scattered all over Norway and clustered in high-density dairy cattle farm areas. The resulting rankings of herds are being used in the national surveillance program for MAP in 2014 to increase the sensitivity of the ongoing surveillance program in which 5 fecal samples for bacteriological examination are collected from 25 dairy herds. The use of multivariate statistical process control for selection of herds will be beneficial when a diagnostic test suitable for mass screening is available and validated on the Norwegian cattle population, thus making it possible to increase the number of sampled herds.

Genetic evaluation of mastitis resistance using a first-passage time model for wiener processes for analysis of time to first treatment.

A Wiener process is a Brownian-motion process initiated in a certain state in a state space, and the first passage time is defined as the time of the process to reach a predefined absorbing state where the process stops. Time from 31 d prepartum to first treatment of clinical mastitis (CM) was modeled as first passage times of such Wiener processes. Two processes were used to allow for several risk factors, and for each process, initiation was at some arbitrary time point, in a certain health state with drift toward or away from absorption (disease). The drift parameter of each process was expressed as linear functions of covariates (year of calving and sire). First passage time was defined as the time from process initiation until the first health status process reached zero (absorption). The model was fitted to records for 36,178 first-lactation daughters of 245 Norwegian cattle sires using a Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Genetic evaluation of sires was carried out by calculating the posterior probability of no CM (the value of the survival function) by d 331, i.e., 300 d after first calving. Alternatively, sire evaluation was based on the integrated area under the survival curve. These measures were highly correlated (0.999), which indicates a small degree of crossings of the sire-dependent survival curves. Hence, sire-specific hazards were close to proportional, resulting in a higher rank-correlation to sire evaluations from a survival model with proportional hazards than to the results from a multivariate threshold model.

Chiral ligands derived from Abrine 8. An experimental and theoretical study of free ligand conformational preferences and the addition of diethylzinc to benzaldehyde.

Three structurally similar series of 1,2,3,4-tetrahydro-beta-carboline ligands, 4a-d, 6a-d and 7a-d, and two series of chiral oxazolidines, 8a-d and 9a-g, were synthesized and used as chiral catalysts in the addition of diethylzinc to benzaldehyde. The enantioselectivities of the resulting 1-phenyl-1-propanol were obtained in each case, and these ee values were, in most cases, related to the conformational populations of the free ligand as expressed by the calculated differences in the energies of the ligand conformations formed by inversion at nitrogen. This suggested the possible existence of a linear free energy relationship. The effect on enantioselectivity of the carbon chain length of the R group located (1) on the C-3 substituent of 4a-d, 6a-d, and 7a-d or (2) at C-5 in 8a-d and 9a-g was studied in detail. On the basis of the correlations observed and the ligands' structural characterization, a structure was proposed for the transition state during ethyl group transfer when using ligands 8a-d. Furthermore, the change in enantioselectivity was successfully predicted when diastereomeric ligands 11 and 12 were compared in this chiral addition.

Ab initio studies of benzocyclopropenone, benzocyclopropenone-containing

Ab initio calculations were carried out on cyclopropenone, 1, benzocyclopropenone, 2, the benzocyclopropenone-containing [2.2]paracyclophane derivative tetracyclo[8.3.2.(4,7)O(11,13)]heptadeca-1(13),4,6,10,14,16-hexaen-12-one, 3, its decarbonylation product tricyclo[8.2.2.2(4,7)]hexadeca-1(12), 4,6,10,13-pentaen-15-yne, 5, a benzyne intermediate, and the bridged benzobarrelene derivative, pentacyclo[5.5.2.2.(1,4)O(4,14)O(10,13)]hexadeca-2,7,9,13,15-pentaene, 6. These calculations suggest that benzocyclopropenone-containing [2.2]paracyclophane, 3, and highly strained bridged benzobarrelene, 6, could exist as stable species. Both aryl rings of the benzocyclopropenone derivative 3 are predicted to be distorted from planarity. This distortion relieves some angle strain present in planar benzocyclopropenone due to the presence of the annulated three-membered ring. Calculations on benzobarrelene, 8, and [2.2]paracyclophane, 4, were performed for comparison to gain a better understanding of the strain borne in bridged benzobarrelene 6. The activation barrier for the intramolecular [4 + 2] cycloaddition of 5 to give 6 was estimated at 18.8 kcal/mol while that for the corresponding [2 + 2] cycloaddition, giving the less stable 9, was 54.5 kcal/mol. The [2 + 2] cycloaddition's transition state was twisted in a manner reminiscent of the conservation of orbital symmetry prediction for an unstrained system.