Quantitative myasthenia gravis score: assessment of responsiveness and longitudinal validity.

We prospectively tested the quantitative myasthenia gravis score (QMG) for responsiveness and longitudinal construct validity in 53 patients with myasthenia gravis. Index of responsiveness was high. Longitudinal construct validity was confirmed by the correlation between changes in QMG and manual muscle testing and by a difference in QMG changes across patients that were clinically unchanged, improved, or worse between two visits. Our results support QMG use for assessing clinical change in trials.

Antibiotics for acute maxillary sinusitis.

BACKGROUND: For adults seeking care in ambulatory medical practices, sinusitis is the most common diagnosis treated with antibiotics. OBJECTIVES: We examined whether antibiotics are indicated for acute sinusitis, and if so, which antibiotic classes are most effective. SEARCH STRATEGY: Relevant studies were identified from searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE in December 2001, contacts with pharmaceutical companies and bibliographies of included studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized trials were eligible that compared antibiotic to control or antibiotics from different classes, for acute maxillary sinusitis. Additional criteria for inclusion were diagnostic confirmation by radiograph or sinus aspiration, outcomes that included clinical cure or improvement, and a sample size of 30 or more adults. Of 2058 potentially relevant studies, two or more reviewers identified 49 studies meeting selection criteria. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data were extracted independently by two persons and synthesized descriptively. Some data were analyzed quantitatively using a random effects model. Primary outcomes were: a) clinical cure, and b) clinical cure or improvement. Secondary outcomes were radiographic improvement, relapse rates, and dropouts due to adverse effects. MAIN RESULTS: Forty-nine trials, involving 13,660 participants, evaluated antibiotic treatment for acute maxillary sinusitis. Major comparisons were antibiotic versus control (n of 5); newer, non-penicillin antibiotic versus penicillin class (n of 10); and amoxicillin-clavulanate versus other extended spectrum antibiotics (n of 17), where n is the number of trials. Most trials were conducted in otolaryngology settings. Only 8 trials described adequate allocation and concealment procedures; 20 were double-blind. Compared to control, penicillin improved clinical cures [relative risk (RR) 1.72; 95% CI 1.00 to 2.96]. Treatment with amoxicillin did not significantly improve cure rates (RR 2.06; 95% CI 0.65 to 6.53) but there was significant variability between studies. Radiographic outcomes were improved by antibiotic treatment. Comparisons between classes of antibiotics showed no significant differences: newer non-penicillins versus penicillins (RR for cure 1.07; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.17); newer non-penicillins versus amoxicillin-clavulanate (RR for cure 1.03; 95% CI 0.96 to 1.11). Compared to amoxicillin-clavulanate, dropouts due to adverse effects were significantly lower for cephalosporin antibiotics (RR 0.47; 95% CI 0.30 to 0.73). Relapse rates within one month of successful therapy were 7.7%. REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS: For acute maxillary sinusitis confirmed radiographically or by aspiration, current evidence is limited but supports the use of penicillin or amoxicillin for 7 to 14 days. Clinicians should weigh the moderate benefits of antibiotic treatment against the potential for adverse effects.

The rational clinical examination. Does this patient have a torn meniscus or ligament of the knee? Value of the physical examination.

CONTEXT: While most meniscal or ligamentous knee injuries heal with nonoperative treatments, a subset should be treated with arthroscopic or open surgery. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the accuracy of the clinical examination for meniscal or ligamentous knee injuries. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE (1966-December 31, 2000) and HealthSTAR (1975-December 31, 2000) databases were searched for English-language articles describing the diagnostic accuracy of individual examination items for the knee and a combination of physical examination items (composite examination). Other data sources included reference lists from relevant articles. STUDY SELECTION: Studies selected for data extraction were those that compared the performance of the physical examination of the knee with a reference standard, such as arthroscopy, arthrotomy, or magnetic resonance imaging. Eighty-eight articles were identified, of which 23 (26%) met inclusion criteria. DATA EXTRACTION: A rheumatologist and an orthopedic surgeon independently reviewed each article using a standardized rating scale that scored the assembly of the study, the relevance of the patients enrolled, the appropriateness of the reference standard, and the blinding of the examiner. DATA SYNTHESIS: Summary likelihood ratios (LRs) were estimated from random effects models. The summary LRs for physical examination for tears of the anterior cruciate ligament, using the anterior drawer test, were 3.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7-22.0) for a positive examination and 0.30 (95% CI, 0.05-1.50) for a negative examination; the Lachman test, 25.0 (95% CI, 2.7-651.0) and 0.1 (95% CI, 0.0-0.4); and the composite assessment, 25.0 (95% CI, 2.1-306.0) and 0.04 (95% CI, 0.01-0.48), respectively. The LRs could not be generated for any specific examination maneuver for a posterior cruciate ligament tear, but the composite assessment had an LR of 21.0 (95% CI, 2.1-205.0) for a positive examination and 0.05 (95% CI, 0.01-0.50) for a negative examination. Determination of meniscal lesions, using McMurray test, had an LR of 1.3 (95% CI, 0.9-1.7) for a positive examination and 0.8 (95% CI, 0.6-1.1) for a negative examination; joint line tenderness, 0.9 (95% CI, 0.8-1.0) and 1.1 (95% CI, 1.0-1.3); and the composite assessment, 2.7 (95% CI, 1.4-5.1) and 0.4 (95% CI, 0.2-0.7), respectively. CONCLUSION: The composite examination for specific meniscal or ligamentous injuries of the knee performed much better than specific maneuvers, suggesting that synthesis of a group of examination maneuvers and historical items may be required for adequate diagnosis.

Comparison of cefuroxime with or without intranasal fluticasone for the treatment of rhinosinusitis. The CAFFS Trial: a randomized controlled trial.

CONTEXT: It is not known whether intranasal corticosteroids are beneficial to treat acute rhinosinusitis in patients with a history of chronic or recurrent sinus symptoms. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether the addition of an intranasal corticosteroid to antibiotic therapy affects the speed and rate of recovery of such patients with acute rhinosinusitis. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: A double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled multicenter trial of 95 patients (median age, 39 years) with a history of recurrent sinusitis or chronic rhinitis and evidence of acute infection by sinus radiograph or nasal endoscopy, which was conducted from October 1998 through April 2000 at 22 sites (12 primary care and 10 otolaryngology). INTERVENTION: Two puffs (total dose, 200 microgram) of fluticasone propionate (n = 47) or placebo nasal spray (n = 48) in each nostril once daily for 21 days; all received 2 puffs of xylometazoline hydrochloride in each nostril twice daily for 3 days and 250 mg of cefuroxime axetil twice daily for 10 days. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Time to clinical success (patient reported cured or much improved) during telephone follow-up at 10, 21, and 56 days. RESULTS: A total of 88 patients (93%) completed follow-up. Patients recorded their symptoms, work assessment, and compliance during the 3-week treatment phase. Patients receiving fluticasone achieved a significantly higher rate of clinical success than patients receiving placebo (93.5% vs 73.9%; P =.009). Patients treated with fluticasone improved significantly more rapidly (median of 6.0 days to clinical success) vs patients in the placebo group (median of 9.5 days; P =.01). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of fluticasone to xylometazoline and antimicrobial therapy with cefuroxime improves clinical success rates and accelerates recovery of patients with a history of chronic rhinitis or recurrent sinusitis who present for treatment of acute rhinosinusitis.

Antibiotics for acute maxillary sinusitis.

OBJECTIVES: For adults seeking care in ambulatory practices, sinusitis is the most common diagnosis treated with antibiotics. We examined whether antibiotics are indicated for acute sinusitis, and if so, which antibiotic classes are most effective. SEARCH STRATEGY: Relevant studies were identified from searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE in October 1998, contacts with pharmaceutical companies and bibliographies of included studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized trials were eligible that compared antibiotic to control or antibiotics from different classes for acute maxillary sinusitis. Additional criteria were diagnostic confirmation by radiograph or sinus aspiration, outcomes that included clinical cure or improvement and a sample size of 30 or more adults. Of 1784 potentially relevant studies, two or more reviewers identified 32 studies meeting selection criteria. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data were abstracted independently by 2 persons and synthesized descriptively. Some data were analyzed quantitatively using a random effects model. Primary outcomes were a) clinical cure and b) clinical cure or improvement. Secondary outcomes were radiographic improvement, relapse rates, and dropouts due to adverse effects. MAIN RESULTS: Thirty-two trials, involving 7,330 subjects evaluated antibiotic treatment for acute maxillary sinusitis. Major comparisons were antibiotic vs. control (n=5); newer, non-penicillin antibiotic vs. penicillin class (n=10); and amoxicillin-clavulanate vs. other extended spectrum antibiotics (n=10). Most trials were conducted in otolaryngology settings. Only 5 trials described adequate allocation and concealment procedures; 10 were double-blind. Compared to control, penicillin improved clinical cures [relative risk (RR) 1.72, 95% CI 1.00 to 2.96]. Treatment with amoxicillin did not significantly improve cure rates (RR 2.06; 95% CI 0.65 to 6.53), but there was significant variability between studies. Radiographic outcomes were improved by antibiotic treatment. Comparisons between classes of antibiotics showed no significant differences: newer non-penicillins vs. penicillins (RR for cure 1.07; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.17); newer non-penicillins vs. amoxicillin-clavulanate (RR for cure 1.01, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.04). Compared to amoxicillin-clavulanate, dropouts due to adverse effects were significantly lower for cephalosporin antibiotics. Relapse rates within one month of successful therapy were 5%. REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS: For acute maxillary sinusitis confirmed radiographically or by aspiration, current evidence is limited but supports penicillin or amoxicillin for 7 to 14 days. Clinicians should weigh the moderate benefits of antibiotic treatment against the potential for adverse effects.

Cranial computed tomography before lumbar puncture: a prospective clinical evaluation.

OBJECTIVE: To prospectively identify which patients can safely undergo lumbar puncture (LP) without screening cranial computed tomography (CT). METHODS: Emergency department physicians examined patients before CT. Examiners recorded the presence or absence of 10 clinical findings and answered 8 additional questions. The criterion standard was noncontrast cranial CT interpreted by staff radiologists. Clinical findings were prospectively compared with those of CT. RESULTS: One hundred thirteen consecutive adults with the urgent need for LP (median age, 42 years) were studied. Fifteen percent of patients meeting entrance criteria had new CT-documented lesions, with 2.7% having lesions that contraindicated LP. Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios (LRs) were measured for the clinical findings. Three statistically significant predictors of new intracranial lesions were identified: altered mentation (positive LR, 2.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-3.2), focal neurologic examination (positive LR, 4.3; 95% CI, 1.9-10), and papilledema (positive LR, 11.1; 95% CI, 1.1-115). No single item adequately predicted the absence of CT abnormalities, but the clinical screening items in aggregate significantly predicted the results (negative LR, 0; upper 95% confidence limit, 0.6). The overall clinical impression had the highest predictive value in identifying patients with CT-defined contraindications to LP (positive LR, 18.8; 95% CI, 4.8-43). CONCLUSIONS: Because of the low prevalence of lesions that contraindicate LP, screening cranial CT solely to establish the safety of performing an LP typically provides limited additional information. Physicians can use their overall clinical impression and 3 clinical predictors to identify patients with the greatest risk of having intracranial lesions that may contraindicate LP.

Reliability and accuracy of dermatologists' clinic-based and digital image consultations.

BACKGROUND: Telemedicine technology holds great promise for dermatologic health care delivery. However, the clinical outcomes of digital image consultations (teledermatology) must be compared with traditional clinic-based consultations. OBJECTIVE: Our purpose was to assess and compare the reliability and accuracy of dermatologists' diagnoses and management recommendations for clinic-based and digital image consultations. METHODS: One hundred sixty-eight lesions found among 129 patients were independently examined by 2 clinic-based dermatologists and 3 different digital image dermatologist consultants. The reliability and accuracy of the examiners' diagnoses and the reliability of their management recommendations were compared. RESULTS: Proportion agreement among clinic-based examiners for their single most likely diagnosis was 0. 54 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.46-0.61) and was 0.92 (95% CI, 0. 88-0.96) when ratings included differential diagnoses. Digital image consultants provided diagnoses that were comparably reliable to the clinic-based examiners. Agreement on management recommendations was variable. Digital image and clinic-based consultants displayed similar diagnostic accuracy. CONCLUSION: Digital image consultations result in reliable and accurate diagnostic outcomes when compared with traditional clinic-based consultations.

Clinical examination for the detection of protective sensation in the feet of diabetic patients. International Cooperative Group for Clinical Examination Research.

OBJECTIVE: We compared the reproducibility and accuracy of conventional clinical examination of the diabetic foot to monofilament examination. We also sought to simplify the monofilament examination by reducing it to fewer touch points. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study at 10 centers in the United States, Canada, and Switzerland, general internists and residents performed a structured history and physical examination for neuropathy on the feet of diabetic patients. Independent examination by two observers included monofilament sensation, pinprick, vibration, position sense, and ankle reflexes. MAIN RESULTS: A total of 304 patients were examined by at least one practitioner, and 200 received duplicate examinations. Monofilament examination and ankle reflexes had the best reproducibility, with moderate agreement (kappa = 0.59); pinprick, position, and vibration sense had fair agreement (kappa = 0.28-0.36). No component of the history or physical examination, singly or in aggregate, was both sensitive and specific for identifying a patient with an abnormal monofilament examination. A simplified monofilament examination using only 4 sites per foot (total 8 sites) detected 90% of patients with an abnormal 16-site monofilament evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: Conventional clinical examination had low reproducibility and correlated poorly with monofilament examination for the identification of the at-risk patient. The Semmes-Weinstein monofilament examination, a reproducible, valid, and generalizable test of foot sensation, is recommended as the screening procedure of choice for examining diabetic feet.

The rational clinical examination. Is this patient hypovolemic?

OBJECTIVE: To review, systematically, the physical diagnosis of hypovolemia in adults. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE (January 1966-November 1997), personal files, and bibliographies of textbooks on physical diagnosis and identified 10 studies investigating postural vital signs or the capillary refill time of healthy volunteers, some of whom underwent phlebotomy of up to 1150 mL of blood, and 4 studies of patients presenting to emergency departments with suspected hypovolemia, usually due to vomiting, diarrhea, or decreased oral intake. RESULTS: When clinicians evaluate adults with suspected blood loss, the most helpful physical findings are either severe postural dizziness (preventing measurement of upright vital signs) or a postural pulse increment of 30 beats/min or more. The presence of either finding has a sensitivity for moderate blood loss of only 22% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6%-48%) but a much greater sensitivity for large blood loss of 97% (95% CI, 91%-100%); the corresponding specificity is 98% (95% CI, 97%-99%). Supine hypotension and tachycardia are frequently absent, even after up to 1150 mL of blood loss (sensitivity, 33%; 95% CI, 21%-47%, for supine hypotension). The finding of mild postural dizziness has no proven value. In patients with vomiting, diarrhea, or decreased oral intake, the presence of a dry axilla supports the diagnosis of hypovolemia (positive likelihood ratio, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.4-5.4), and moist mucous membranes and a tongue without furrows argue against it (negative likelihood ratio, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.6 for both findings). In adults, the capillary refill time and poor skin turgor have no proven diagnostic value. CONCLUSIONS: A large postural pulse change (> or =30 beats/min) or severe postural dizziness is required to clinically diagnose hypovolemia due to blood loss, although these findings are often absent after moderate amounts of blood loss. In patients with vomiting, diarrhea, or decreased oral intake, few findings have proven utility, and clinicians should measure serum electrolytes, serum blood urea nitrogen, and creatinine levels when diagnostic certainty is required.

The rational clinical examination. Does this patient have abdominal aortic aneurysm? .

In the physical examination of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), the only maneuver of demonstrated value is abdominal palpation to detect abnormal widening of the aortic pulsation. Palpation of AAA appears to be safe and has not been reported to precipitate rupture. The best evidence on the accuracy of abdominal palpation comes from 15 studies of patients not previously known to have AAA who were screened with both abdominal palpation and ultrasound. When results from these studies are pooled, the sensitivity of abdominal palpation increases significantly with AAA diameter (P<.001), ranging from 29% for AAAs of 3.0 to 3.9 cm to 50% for AAAs of 4.0 to 4.9 cm and 76% for AAAs of 5.0 cm or greater. Positive and negative likelihood ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using a cutoff point for AAAs of 3.0 cm or greater are 12.0 (95% CI, 7.4-19.5) and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.65-0.81), respectively, and for AAAs of 4.0 cm or greater are 15.6 (95% CI, 8.6-28.5) and 0.51 (95% CI, 0.38-0.67). The positive predictive value of palpation for AAA of 3.0 cm or greater in these studies was 43%. Limited data suggest that abdominal obesity decreases the sensitivity of palpation. Abdominal palpation specifically directed at measuring aortic width has moderate sensitivity for detecting an AAA that would be large enough to be referred for surgery but cannot be relied on to exclude AAA, especially if rupture is a possibility.

Hormone replacement therapy and the risk of colorectal cancer: a meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To review systematically the association between hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and the risk of developing or dying from colorectal cancer. DATA SOURCES: We searched the English-language literature using MEDLINE, Current Contents, CancerLit, and bibliographies of selected studies. METHODS OF STUDY SELECTION: We included studies that specifically addressed the association of HRT with colorectal cancer, had adequate controls, and had retrievable risk estimates. We excluded letters, reviews, and multiple publications of the same data. TABULATION, INTEGRATION, AND RESULTS: Studies were evaluated independently by two of the authors. The exposures of interest were ever, recent, or former use of HRT, and the main outcome measures were colon and rectal cancer incidence and mortality. To reduce the risk of a "healthy estrogen user" bias, we defined recent HRT use as either at time of assessment or within the previous year. The most adjusted risk estimates were extracted. We used a random-effects model to calculate summary relative risks (RRs) and confidence intervals (CIs). Recent use of HRT was associated with a 33% reduction in the risk of colon cancer (RR = 0.67; 95% CI 0.59, 0.77). Protection was limited to recent users; the risk of colon cancer with ever use of HRT was 0.92 (95% CI 0.79, 1.08). Duration of use was not significant. Three studies addressed the risk of fatal colon cancer; the summary RR for death from colon cancer in HRT users was 0.72 (95% CI 0.64, 0.81) compared with nonusers. Rectal cancer incidence was not associated with HRT. CONCLUSION: The risk of colon cancer may be decreased among recent postmenopausal HRT users. Although data are limited, the risk of fatal colon cancer also may be lower in HRT users.

Diagnostic efficiency of home pregnancy test kits. A meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the diagnostic efficiency of home pregnancy test (HPT) kits. DATA SOURCES: A literature search of English-language studies was performed with MEDLINE and a review of bibliographies. STUDY SELECTION: Studies were included if HPT kits were compared with a criterion standard (laboratory testing), if they used appropriate controls, and if data were available to determine sensitivity and specificity. DATA EXTRACTION: Two investigators independently extracted data, and disagreement was resolved by consensus. Sensitivity, specificity, and an effectiveness score (a measure of the discriminatory power of the test, with higher scores implying greater effectiveness) were calculated. DATA SYNTHESIS: Five studies evaluating 16 HPT kits met the inclusion criteria. The range of sensitivities for HPT kits was 0.52 to 1.0. In studies where urine samples obtained by the investigators were tested by volunteers, sensitivity was 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-0.96). However, the sensitivity was less in studies where subjects were actual patients who performed the test on their own urine samples (sensitivity, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.64-0.85]). The test effectiveness score was 2.75 (95% CI, 2.3-3.2) for studies where subjects were volunteers but deteriorated to 0.82 (95% CI, 0.4-1.2) for studies with actual patients. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic efficiency of HPT kits is greatly affected by characteristics of the users. Despite the popularity of these kits, the relatively low effectiveness scores of these kits when used by actual patients are of concern. We suggest that manufacturers of HPT kits publish results of trials in actual patients before marketing them to the general public.

The rational clinical examination. Is this patient having a myocardial infarction?

When faced with a patient with acute chest pain, clinicians must distinguish myocardial infarction (MI) from all other causes of acute chest pain. If MI is suspected, current therapeutic practice includes deciding whether to administer thrombolysis or primary percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty and whether to admit patients to a coronary care unit. The former decision is based on electrocardiographic (ECG) changes, including ST-segment elevation or left bundle-branch block, the latter on the likelihood of the patient's having unstable high-risk ischemia or MI without ECG changes. Despite advances in investigative modalities, a focused history and physical examination followed by an ECG remain the key tools for the diagnosis of MI. The most powerful features that increase the probability of MI, and their associated likelihood ratios (LRs), are new ST-segment elevation (LR range, 5.7-53.9); new Q wave (LR range, 5.3-24.8); chest pain radiating to both the left and right arm simultaneously (LR, 7.1); presence of a third heart sound (LR, 3.2); and hypotension (LR, 3.1). The most powerful features that decrease the probability of MI are a normal ECG result (LR range, 0.1-0.3), pleuritic chest pain (LR, 0.2), chest pain reproduced by palpation (LR range, 0.2-0.4), sharp or stabbing chest pain (LR, 0.3), and positional chest pain (LR, 0.3). Computer-derived algorithms that depend on clinical examination and ECG findings might improve the classification of patients according to the probability that an MI is causing their chest pain.

A pilot trial of digital imaging in skin cancer.

We have used inexpensive off-the-shelf equipment for store-and-forward teledermatology and compared the precision and accuracy of digital image consultations with conventional, clinic-based consultations. Thirteen lesions were studied on 12 patients referred to a dermatology clinic for a suspected skin cancer. Patients were examined by two dermatologists. Subsequently, digital images were examined by two different dermatologists. There was almost complete agreement, both among and between the clinical and digital examiners, on different diagnosis and biopsy recommendations. Agreement on the single most likely diagnosis was also good. Digital imaging shows promise in teledermatology.

The development of a primary care curriculum for obstetrics/gynecology residents.

In order to develop a primary care curriculum for obstetricians and gynecologists, a needs assessment was performed to determine those topics in which additional training was needed. We used a Likert scale comfort score (0-10) for evaluating or treating 14 primary care areas. The results of the 30 completed surveys showed that topics traditionally emphasized in obstetrics/gynecology training received very high comfort scores, while scores for traditional internal medicine problems were very low. We chosesix areas with the lowest comfort scores as targets for primary care education--immunizations, skin cancer screening, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, musculoskeletal complaints, and depression--and designed a seven-week rotation for obstetrics/gynecology interns. The rotation includes practical ambulatory experiences in gynecology and internal medicine, mental health assessments, thorough breast care in the breast clinic, and individual didactic instruction. The curriculum has been well received by the interns, who report more comfort in providing general women's health care. We suggest that a systematic assessment of the weaknesses and strengths of each residency can serve as the basis for curriculum planning.

Primary care clinicians' performance for detecting actinic keratoses and skin cancer.

BACKGROUND: If skin cancer screening is to become widely adopted, its effectiveness depends on the ability of primary care clinicians to detect cutaneous malignancies. OBJECTIVE: To assess primary care clinicians' proficiency for detecting skin cancers and actinic keratoses in a clinic population. METHODS: A convenience sample of 190 white male patients aged 40 years or older presenting to a university-affiliated Veterans Affairs general internal medicine or dermatology clinic were included in the study. Each patient was independently examined by a primary care clinician and a dermatologist to measure interobserver agreement. We compared the ability of primary care clinicians to diagnose actinic keratoses and skin cancers using dermatologists' examinations as a pragmatic reference standard. RESULTS: Agreement was moderate as to whether a patient had single actinic keratosis (kappa, 0.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.22-0.50), multiple actinic keratoses (kappa, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.34-0.61), or skin cancer (kappa, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.34-0.62). Agreement decreased when individual lesions were the unit of analysis. When the patient was the unit of analysis, primary care clinicians identified the presence of skin cancer with a sensitivity of 57% (95% CI, 44%-68%), specificity of 88% (95% CI, 81%-93%), positive likelihood ratio of 4.9 (95% CI, 3.0-8.3), and negative likelihood ratio of 0.48 (95% CI, 0.35-0.63). When the lesion was the unit of analysis the sensitivity was 38% (95% CI, 29%-47%), the specificity was 95% (95% CI, 93%-96%), the positive likelihood ratio was 7.1 (95% CI, 4.8-10.3), and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.66 (95% CI, 0.56-0.75). CONCLUSIONS: Examinations performed by primary care clinicians for diagnosing skin cancer lacked sensitivity. Without improved diagnostic skills, primary care clinicians' examinations may be ineffective as a screening test.

Quantitative assessments from the clinical examination. How should clinicians integrate the numerous results?

OBJECTIVE: To describe strategies for using multiple clinical examination items to estimate disease probabilities; and to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of each strategy. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: Medical preoperative evaluation clinic at a university-affiliated Veterans Affairs Medical Center. PATIENTS: Previously reported consecutive series of patients referred for outpatient medical preoperative risk assessment. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Pulmonary clinical examination and spirometry were the measurements. A strategy of using likelihood ratios (LRs) from seven clinical examination items was least accurate (p < .0001). Three alternative strategies were equivalent in diagnostic accuracy (p > or = .2): (1) using the single best clinical examination item and its LR, (2) using the LRs from three clinical examination items chosen by logistic regression, and (3) using the adjusted LRs chosen in strategy 2. When compared with using LRs from all seven items, the strategies of using three LRs chosen by logistic regression or using adjusted likelihood ratios better discriminated patients with airflow limitation from those without (receiver operating characteristic [ROC] areas 0.79 vs 0.69; p = .02). Using the single best clinical finding did not statistically degrade the clinical examination's discriminating ability (ROC areas 0.79 vs 0.75; p = .20). CONCLUSIONS: Describing the rational clinical examination requires evaluating conditional independence of examination components. Conditional independence assumptions were violated when seven clinical examination items were used to estimate posterior probability of airflow limitation. Focusing on clinical examination items identified through logistic models overcame violations of independence; further statistical adjustment did not improve diagnostic accuracy. Clinicians can use the single most predictive clinical examination finding to avoid inaccuracy from violating the independence assumption.

Smoking behavior on the first day of a quit attempt predicts long-term abstinence.

BACKGROUND: The nicotine patch has been widely used for smoking cessation, but not all smokers quit using the patch. Knowing which smokers are likely to succeed with the nicotine patch may improve the efficiency of nicotine patch use. OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of smoking abstinence using baseline characteristics, smoking behavior, and withdrawal symptoms. METHODS: Using 2 randomized clinical trials of pharmacologic treatment, brief counseling, and quit date formats in the outpatient research clinic setting, predictors of smoking cessation were derived in 1 sample (n = 159), then prospectively validated in an independent sample (n = 48). Subjects smoked 1 pack of cigarettes per day or more and were motivated to quit smoking. Self-report of abstinence at 6 months verified by exhaled carbon monoxide of 8 ppm or less was used. RESULTS: Abstinence at 6 months was 24% in the derivation set and 25% in the validation set. Using logistic regression, a model containing quit date abstinence (odds ratio, 10.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.9-38.7) and baseline nicotine dependence (odds ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.6-1.0 per unit increase in Fagerstrom score) provided the optimal predictive ability and was validated in the independent set. Quit date abstinence improved the likelihood of 6-month abstinence by 4.1 over baseline (95% CI, 2.6-6.4) for low-nicotine-dependent smokers and 1.2 (95% CI, 0.6-2.2) for high-nicotine-dependent smokers. Quit date smoking altered the likelihood of 6-month abstinence by 0.2 (95% CI, 0.0-0.8) for low-dependent smokers and 0.1 for high-dependent smokers (95% CI, 0.0-0.6). CONCLUSIONS: Abstinence on the quit date and low-nicotine dependence improve the likelihood of smoking abstinence at 6 months. Smoking on the quit date may be an indication for postponing the cessation attempt or adjusting the therapy for smoking cessation.