Geologic constraints on clandestine nuclear testing in South Asia.

Cavity decoupling in salt is the most plausible means by which a nation could conduct clandestine testing of militarily significant nuclear weapons. The conditions under which solution-mined salt can be used for this purpose are quite restrictive. The salt must be thick and reasonably pure. Containment of explosions sets a shallow limit on depth, and cavity stability sets a deep limit. These constraints are met in considerably <1% of the total land area of India and Pakistan. Most of that area is too dry for cavity construction by solution mining; disposal of brine in rivers can be detected easily. Salt domes, the most favorable structures for constructing large cavities, are not present in India and Pakistan. Confidence that they are adhering to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is enhanced by their geological conditions, which are quite favorable to verification, not evasion. Thus, their participation in the CTBT is constrained overwhelmingly by political, not scientific, issues. Confidence in the verification of the CTBT could be enhanced if India and Pakistan permitted stations of the various monitoring technologies that are now widely deployed elsewhere to be operated on their territories.

Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study.

Changes in state of stress on the southern san andreas fault resulting from the california earthquake sequence of april to june 1992.

The April to June 1992 Landers earthquake sequence in southern California modified the state of stress along nearby segments of the San Andreas fault, causing a 50-kilometer segment of the fault to move significantly closer to failure where it passes through a compressional bend near San Gorgonio Pass. The decrease in compressive normal stress may also have reduced fluid pressures along that fault segment. As pressures are reequilibrated by diffusion, that fault segment should move closer to failure with time. That fault segment and another to the southeast probably have not ruptured in a great earthquake in about 300 years.

Comparison of seismic and hydrodynamic yield determinations for the Soviet joint verification experiment of 1988.

Seismic magnitudes determined from surface and body waves for the Soviet underground nuclear explosion of September 14, 1988, are used to calculate the yield of that event from previously derived calibration curves. The yield obtained by combining the two seismic estimates is 113 kilotons, which is very close to those obtained by hydrodynamic measurements made on-site. This comparison substantiates previous conclusions about the sizes of past Soviet weapons tests and compliance with the Threshold Test Ban Treaty. The factor of uncertainty in the combined seismic yield is 1.28 at the 68% and 1.62 at the 95% confidence levels, demonstrating that accuracies considerably better than a factor of 2 can be obtained by combining seismic determinations of yield.

Yields of Soviet underground nuclear explosions at Novaya Zemlya, 1964-1976, from seismic body and surface waves.

Surface and body wave magnitudes are determined for 15 U.S.S.R. underground nuclear weapons tests conducted at Novaya Zemlya between 1964 and 1976 and are used to estimate yields. These events include the largest underground explosions detonated by the Soviet Union. A histogram of body wave magnitude (m(b)) values indicates a clustering of explosions at a few specific yields. The most pronounced cluster consists of six explosions of yield near 500 kilotons. Several of these seem to be tests of warheads for major strategic systems that became operational in the late 1970s. The largest Soviet underground explosion is estimated to have a yield of 3500 +/- 600 kilotons, somewhat smaller than the yield of the largest U.S. underground test. A preliminary estimation of the significance of tectonic release is made by measuring the amplitude of Love waves. The bias in m(b) for Novaya Zemlya relative to the Nevada test site is about 0.35, nearly identical to that of the eastern Kazakhstan test site relative to Nevada.

Yields of Soviet underground nuclear explosions from seismic surface waves: Compliance with the Threshold Test Ban Treaty.

Magnitudes of the larger Soviet underground nuclear weapons tests from the start of the Threshold Test Ban Treaty in 1976 through 1982 are determined for short- and long-period seismic waves. Yields are calculated from the surface wave magnitude for those explosions at the eastern Kazakh test site that triggered a small-to-negligible component of tectonic stress and are used to calibrate body wave magnitude-yield relationship that can be used to determine the sizes of other explosions at that test site. The results confirm that a large bias, related to differential attenuation of P waves, exists between Nevada and Central Asia. The yields of the seven largest Soviet explosions are nearly identical and are close to 150 kilotons, the limit set by the Threshold Treaty.

Forecasting southern california earthquakes.

Since 1978 and 1979, California has had a significantly higher frequency of moderate to large earthquakes than in the preceding 25 years. In the past such periods have also been associated with major destructive earthquakes, of magnitude 7 or greater, and the annual probability of occurrence of such an event is now 13 percent in California. The increase in seismicity is associated with a marked deviation in the pattern of strain accumulation, a correlation that is physically plausible. Although great earthquakes (magnitude greater than 7.5) are too infrequent to have clear associations with any pattern of seismicity that is now observed, the San Andreas fault in southern California has accumulated sufficient potential displacement since the last rupture in 1857 to generate a great earthquake along part or all of its length.

Rupture zones of great earthquakes in the alaska-aleutian arc, 1784 to 1980.

Historical documents indicate that great earthquakes ruptured at least a 500-kilometer-long segment of the plate boundary near the Alaska Peninsula in 1788 and 1847. At least half of a major seismic gap in the Shumagin Islands ruptured during those shocks but has not experienced a great earthquake for at least 77 years. Large shocks along this and other plate boundaries occur in bursts followed by several decades during which there is very little energy release.

Earthquakes, faults, and nuclear power plants in southern new york and northern new jersey.

Seismic activity in the greater New York City area is concentrated along several northeast-trending faults of which the Ramapo fault appears to be the most active. Three nuclear power plants at Indian Point, New York, are situated close to the Ramapo fault. For a reactor site in use for 40 years, the probability that the site will experience an intensity equal to or in excess of the design (safe shutdown) earthquake is estimated to be about 5 to 11 percent.