Random Forest and Feature Importance Measures for Discriminating the Most Influential Environmental Factors in Predicting Cardiovascular and Respiratory Diseases.

BACKGROUND: Several studies suggest that environmental and climatic factors are linked to the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases; however, it is still unclear which are the most influential ones. This study sheds light on the potentiality of a data-driven statistical approach by providing a case study analysis. METHODS: Daily admissions to the emergency room for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases are jointly analyzed with daily environmental and climatic parameter values (temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, carbon monoxide, ozone, particulate matter, and nitrogen dioxide). The Random Forest (RF) model and feature importance measure (FMI) techniques (permutation feature importance (PFI), Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature importance, and the derivative-based importance measure (κALE)) are applied for discriminating the role of each environmental and climatic parameter. Data are pre-processed to remove trend and seasonal behavior using the Seasonal Trend Decomposition (STL) method and preliminary analyzed to avoid redundancy of information. RESULTS: The RF performance is encouraging, being able to predict cardiovascular and respiratory disease admissions with a mean absolute relative error of 0.04 and 0.05 cases per day, respectively. Feature importance measures discriminate parameter behaviors providing importance rankings. Indeed, only three parameters (temperature, atmospheric pressure, and carbon monoxide) were responsible for most of the total prediction accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: Data-driven and statistical tools, like the feature importance measure, are promising for discriminating the role of environmental and climatic factors in predicting the risk related to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Our results reveal the potential of employing these tools in public health policy applications for the development of early warning systems that address health risks associated with climate change, and improving disease prevention strategies.

Effects of Meteo-Climatic Factors on Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular Diseases in the City of Bari, Southern Italy.

The objective of this study was to determine the relationship between weather conditions and hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). The analysed data of CVD hospital admissions were part of the database of the Policlinico Giovanni XXIII of Bari (southern Italy) within a reference period of 4 years (2013-2016). CVD hospital admissions have been aggregated with daily meteorological recordings for the reference time interval. The decomposition of the time series allowed us to filter trend components; consequently, the non-linear exposure-response relationship between hospitalizations and meteo-climatic parameters was modelled with the application of a Distributed Lag Non-linear model (DLNM) without smoothing functions. The relevance of each meteorological variable in the simulation process was determined by means of machine learning feature importance technique. The study employed a Random Forest algorithm to identify the most representative features and their respective importance in predicting the phenomenon. As a result of the process, the mean temperature, maximum temperature, apparent temperature, and relative humidity have been determined to be the most suitable meteorological variables as the best variables for the process simulation. The study examined daily admissions to emergency rooms for cardiovascular diseases. Using a predictive analysis of the time series, an increase in the relative risk associated with colder temperatures was found between 8.3 °C and 10.3 °C. This increase occurred instantly and significantly 0-1 days after the event. The increase in hospitalizations for CVD has been shown to be correlated to high temperatures above 28.6 °C for lag day 5.

Environmental variables and machine learning models to predict cetacean abundance in the Central-eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Although the Mediterranean Sea is a crucial hotspot in marine biodiversity, it has been threatened by numerous anthropogenic pressures. As flagship species, Cetaceans are exposed to those anthropogenic impacts and global changes. Assessing their conservation status becomes strategic to set effective management plans. The aim of this paper is to understand the habitat requirements of cetaceans, exploiting the advantages of a machine-learning framework. To this end, 28 physical and biogeochemical variables were identified as environmental predictors related to the abundance of three odontocete species in the Northern Ionian Sea (Central-eastern Mediterranean Sea). In fact, habitat models were built using sighting data collected for striped dolphins Stenella coeruleoalba, common bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus, and Risso's dolphins Grampus griseus between July 2009 and October 2021. Random Forest was a suitable machine learning algorithm for the cetacean abundance estimation. Nitrate, phytoplankton carbon biomass, temperature, and salinity were the most common influential predictors, followed by latitude, 3D-chlorophyll and density. The habitat models proposed here were validated using sighting data acquired during 2022 in the study area, confirming the good performance of the strategy. This study provides valuable information to support management decisions and conservation measures in the EU marine spatial planning context.

Analyzing the Interactions between Environmental Parameters and Cardiovascular Diseases Using Random Forest and SHAP Algorithms.

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) remain the predominant global cause of mortality, with both low and high temperatures increasing CVD-related mortalities. Climate change impacts human health directly through temperature fluctuations and indirectly via factors like disease vectors. Elevated and reduced temperatures have been linked to increases in CVD-related hospitalizations and mortality, with various studies worldwide confirming the significant health implications of temperature variations and air pollution on cardiovascular outcomes. Methods: A database of daily Emergency Room admissions at the Giovanni XIII Polyclinic in Bari (Southern Italy) was developed, spanning from 2013 to 2019, including weather and air quality data. A Random Forest (RF) supervised machine learning model was used to simulate the trend of hospital admissions for CVD. The Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) decomposition model separated the trend component, while cross-validation techniques were employed to prevent overfitting. Model performance was assessed using specific metrics and error analysis. Additionally, the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method, a feature importance technique within the eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) framework, was used to identify the feature importance. Results: An R 2 of 0.97 and a Mean Absolute Error of 0.36 admissions were achieved by the model. Atmospheric pressure, minimum temperature, and carbon monoxide were found to collectively contribute about 74% to the model's predictive power, with atmospheric pressure being the dominant factor at 37%. Conclusions: This research underscores the significant influence of weather-climate variables on cardiovascular diseases. The identified key climate factors provide a practical framework for policymakers and healthcare professionals to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on CVD and devise preventive strategies.

Accurate Spectral Estimation Technique Based on Decimated Linear Predictor for Leak Detection in Waterworks.

Rural pipelines dedicated to water distribution, that is, waterworks, are essential for agriculture, notably plantations and greenhouse cultivation. Water is a primary resource for agriculture, and its optimized management is a key aspect. Saving water dispersion is not only an economic problem but also an environmental one. Spectral estimation of leakage is based on processing signals captured from sensors and/or transducers generally mounted on pipelines. There are different techniques capable of processing signals and displaying the actual position of leaks. Not all algorithms are suitable for all signals. That means, for pipelines located underground, for example, external vibrations affect the spectral response quality; then, depending on external vibrations/noises and flow velocity within pipeline, one should choose a suitable algorithm that fits better with the expected results in terms of leak position on the pipeline and expected time for localizing the leak. This paper presents findings related to the application of a decimated linear prediction (DLP) algorithm for agriculture and rural environments. In a certain manner, the application also detects the hydrodynamics of the water transportation. A general statement on the issue, DLP illustration, a real application and results are also included.

Analysis of Correlation between Climate Change and Human Health Based on a Machine Learning Approach.

Climate change increasingly affects every aspect of human life. Recent studies report a close correlation with human health and it is estimated that global death rates will increase by 73 per 100,000 by 2100 due to changes in temperature. In this context, the present work aims to study the correlation between climate change and human health, on a global scale, using artificial intelligence techniques. Starting from previous studies on a smaller scale, that represent climate change and which at the same time can be linked to human health, four factors were chosen. Four causes of mortality, strongly correlated with the environment and climatic variability, were subsequently selected. Various analyses were carried out, using neural networks and machine learning to find a correlation between mortality due to certain diseases and the leading causes of climate change. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic climate change is strongly correlated with human health; some diseases are mainly related to risk factors while others require a more significant number of variables to derive a correlation. In addition, a forecast of victims related to climate change was formulated. The predicted scenario confirms that a prevalently increasing trend in climate change factors corresponds to an increase in victims.

A Sensing and Monitoring System for Hydrodynamic Flow Based on Imaging and Ultrasound.

A built environment, that also includes infrastructures, needs to be taken under control to prevent unexpected modifications, otherwise it could react as a loose cannon. Sensing techniques and technologies can come to the rescue of built environments thanks to their capabilities to monitor appropriately. This article illustrates findings related to monitoring a channel hydrodynamic behavior by means of sensors based on imaging and ultrasound. The ultrasound approach is used here to monitor the height of the water with respect to a maximum limit. Imaging treatment is here proposed to understand the flow velocity under the area to be considered. Since these areas can be covered by trash, an enhanced version of the particle image velocimetry technique has been implemented, allowing the discrimination of trash from water flow. Even in the presence of the total area occupied by trash, it is able to detect the velocity of particles underneath. Rainfall and hydraulic levels have been included and processed to strengthen the study.

A Comparison between the Decimated Padé Approximant and Decimated Signal Diagonalization Methods for Leak Detection in Pipelines Equipped with Pressure Sensors.

Pipelines conveying fluids are considered strategic infrastructures to be protected and maintained. They generally serve for transportation of important fluids such as drinkable water, waste water, oil, gas, chemicals, etc. Monitoring and continuous testing, especially on-line, are necessary to assess the condition of pipelines. The paper presents findings related to a comparison between two spectral response algorithms based on the decimated signal diagonalization (DSD) and decimated Padé approximant (DPA) techniques that allow to one to process signals delivered by pressure sensors mounted on an experimental pipeline.

Effectiveness of KTP laser versus 980 nm diode laser to kill Enterococcus faecalis in biofilms developed in experimentally infected root canals.

This study aimed to evaluate the antibacterial action of KTP (potassium-titanyl-phosphate) laser irradiations (compared with 980 nm diode laser), associated with conventional endodontic procedures, on Enterococcus faecalis biofilms. Fifty-six dental roots with single canals were prepared with Ni-Ti rotary instruments, autoclaved, inoculated with an E. faecalis suspension and incubated for 72 h. They were randomly allocated to control and treatment groups. Laser parameters were as follows: power 2.5 W, Ton 35 ms, Toff 50 ms (KTP laser); power 2.5 W, Ton 30 ms, Toff 30 ms (980 nm diode laser). To evaluate the residual bacterial load, BioTimer Assay was employed. The chemo-mechanical treatment together with laser irradiations (KTP and 980 nm diode lasers) achieved a considerable reduction of bacterial load (higher than 96% and 93%, respectively). Regarding both laser systems, comparisons with conventional endodontic procedures (mortality rate of about 67%) revealed statistically highly significant differences (P ≤ 0.01). This study confirms that laser systems can provide an additional aid in endodontic disinfection.