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2.
Aliment Pharmacol Ther ; 59(4): 535-546, 2024 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38059360

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Patients with cirrhosis are at increased risk for osteoporosis, and those who suffer a fracture are at high risk for mortality. Despite this, osteoporosis is often overlooked and undertreated. This study aimed to evaluate osteoporosis screening, management, and adverse osteoporosis medication events in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: We performed a retrospective chart review of adult outpatients with compensated and decompensated cirrhosis seen in single health system over a 6-year period. Patient demographics, liver and bone health comorbidities, DEXA scan results, and medications were abstracted. RESULTS: In total, 5398 patients met criteria. The cohort was predominately white (79.1%) and older (age 59). 44.4% were female. 64.6% had decompensated cirrhosis. Median MELD-Na score was 12.8. 23.5% had a DEXA scan ordered, approximately 50% completed this test. Patients who were older, female, white, with more severe liver disease, and other osteoporosis risk factors were more likely to have a DEXA scan ordered. 48.5% of patients had osteopenia and 30.2% had osteoporosis on DEXA scan. Only 22.6% of patients with osteoporosis received treatment, most commonly oral bisphosphonates. Oral bisphosphonate prescription was not associated with variceal bleeding (8.4% without vs. 4.8% with, p = 0.487). CONCLUSION: A minority of patients with cirrhosis were screened for osteoporosis. The majority screened had osteopenia or osteoporosis on DEXA scan. Less than a quarter of patients with osteoporosis were started on treatment. Real-world experience of oral bisphosphonate use did not reveal higher rates of gastrointestinal bleeding. There is room for improvement in all aspects of bone health care in cirrhosis.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedades Óseas Metabólicas , Várices Esofágicas y Gástricas , Osteoporosis , Adulto , Humanos , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Masculino , Estudios Retrospectivos , Prevalencia , Várices Esofágicas y Gástricas/tratamiento farmacológico , Absorciometría de Fotón/métodos , Hemorragia Gastrointestinal/tratamiento farmacológico , Osteoporosis/diagnóstico , Osteoporosis/epidemiología , Difosfonatos/uso terapéutico , Cirrosis Hepática/complicaciones , Cirrosis Hepática/diagnóstico , Cirrosis Hepática/epidemiología
3.
BMJ Open Gastroenterol ; 10(1)2023 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36808070

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: The incidence of alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) is increasing, and weight loss surgery is more common due to the obesity epidemic. Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) is associated with alcohol use disorder and ALD; however, its impact on outcomes in patients hospitalised for alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is unclear. DESIGN: We performed a single-centre, retrospective study of patients with AH from June 2011 to December 2019. Primary exposure was the presence of RYGB. The primary outcome was inpatient mortality. Secondary outcomes included overall mortality, readmissions and cirrhosis progression. RESULTS: 2634 patients with AH met the inclusion criteria; 153 patients had RYGB. Median age of the entire cohort was 47.3 years; median Model for End Stage Liver Disease - Sodium (MELD-Na) was 15.1 in the study group versus 10.9 in the control group. There was no difference in inpatient mortality between the two groups. On logistic regression, increased age, elevated body mass index, MELD-Na >20 and haemodialysis were all associated with higher inpatient mortality. RYGB status was associated with increased 30-day readmission (20.3% vs 11.7%, p<0.01), development of cirrhosis (37.5% vs 20.9%, p<0.01) and overall mortality (31.4% vs 24%, p=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with RYGB have higher rates of readmissions, cirrhosis and overall mortality after discharge from hospital for AH. Allocation of additional resources on discharge may improve clinical outcomes and reduce healthcare expenditure in this unique patient population.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedad Hepática en Estado Terminal , Derivación Gástrica , Hepatitis , Obesidad Mórbida , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Derivación Gástrica/efectos adversos , Obesidad Mórbida/epidemiología , Obesidad Mórbida/cirugía , Estudios Retrospectivos , Resultado del Tratamiento , Pérdida de Peso , Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad , Cirrosis Hepática/etiología , Hepatitis/etiología
4.
Liver Transpl ; 29(8): 885-893, 2023 08 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35748497
6.
J Investig Med High Impact Case Rep ; 10: 23247096221111768, 2022.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35848070

RESUMEN

Primary hepatic angiosarcoma (PHA) is a rare and aggressive mesenchymal liver tumor with a poor prognosis and high mortality. Treatment options are limited to palliative chemotherapy with surgical resection reserved for the few cases that present early. We present a case of a patient who presented with jaundice and elevated liver enzymes. Imaging identified a diffusely heterogeneous liver consistent with cirrhosis, findings of portal hypertension, and 2 ill-defined liver lesions. Biopsy results confirmed PHA. Primary hepatic angiosarcoma does not have a typical presentation but should be considered for any patient presenting with an infiltrative liver mass.


Asunto(s)
Hemangiosarcoma , Ictericia , Neoplasias Hepáticas , Biopsia , Hemangiosarcoma/complicaciones , Hemangiosarcoma/diagnóstico , Hemangiosarcoma/patología , Humanos , Neoplasias Hepáticas/complicaciones , Neoplasias Hepáticas/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Hepáticas/patología
7.
J Am Heart Assoc ; : e023789, 2022 Jun 20.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35723002

RESUMEN

Background Sacubitril/valsartan improves health outcomes for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction relative to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers, but it carries higher out-of-pocket costs. Neither the impact of cost nor how to integrate cost into medical decisions is well studied. Methods and Results To evaluate the impact of out-of-pocket costs and a novel cost-priming intervention on willingness to take sacubitril/valsartan for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, participants with self-reported heart disease were surveyed using the online Ipsos Knowledge Panel. Participants were presented with a modified decision aid for sacubitril/valsartan and then, in a 3×2 factorial design, randomly assigned to 1 of 3 cost conditions ($10, $50, or $100/month) and to a control group or cost-priming intervention, defined by being asked questions about their financial situation before learning about the benefits of sacubitril/valsartan. Of the 1013 participants included in the analysis, 85% of respondents were willing to take sacubitril/valsartan at $10, 62% at $50, and 33% at $100 (P<0.0001). In a multivariable logistic regression model, participants were more likely to take sacubitril/valsartan at $10 versus $100 (odds ratio [OR], 14.3 [95% CI, 9.4-21.8]) and $50 compared with $100 (OR, 3.6 [95% CI, 2.5-5.1]). Overall, participants in the cost-primed group were more willing to take sacubitril/valsartan than those not primed to consider their financial situation (63% versus 56%, P=0.04). There was no statistically significant interaction between cost conditions and cost priming. Perceived benefit of sacubitril/valsartan over angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers decreased as cost increased but did not vary by cost priming. Conclusions Commonly encountered out-of-pocket costs of sacubitril/valsartan may impact individuals' willingness to take the medication even when recommended by their physicians. Priming individuals to consider personal finances before learning about the drug increased willingness to take sacubitril/valsartan.

8.
Ethics Hum Res ; 44(2): 18-25, 2022 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35218599

RESUMEN

In phase I trials, some biospecimens are used both for research and patient care and some for research only. Some research participants have therapeutic misconception, assuming all biospecimens are for patient care. This study's aim was to test if a simple information chart would improve understanding of nontherapeutic research procedures. A two-arm study was conducted. Participants in the control group (C) were asked whether biospecimens were for their care, for research only, or for both. The experimental group (E) was asked the same questions but provided with a study-specific information chart labeling the purpose of each biospecimen. One hundred one patients were interviewed. In both arms, understanding that pretreatment blood draws were for patient care and research was moderate (49% for C and 62% for E). Understanding that posttreatment blood draws were for research only was significantly higher in the experimental arm (16% for C and 44% for E; p = 0.002). Providing a simple information chart may help alleviate this aspect of therapeutic misconception.


Asunto(s)
Malentendido Terapéutico , Protocolos Clínicos , Humanos , Consentimiento Informado
9.
Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol ; 20(2): 458-460.e4, 2022 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33775894

RESUMEN

Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are at an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Hydoxy-3-methyglutaryl-coenzyme reductase inhibitors, statins, reduce the risk of cardiovascular events.1 Studies have shown that statins are safe among patients with liver disease, including those with compensated cirrhosis,2 and their use is associated with lower mortality, hepatic decompensation, and possibly hepatocellular carcinoma.3,4 Despite these data, statins are under prescribed among patients with liver disease due to concerns about hepatotoxicity.5 This study aimed to assess prevalence and patient factors associated with indicated statin use in patients with NAFLD in a real-world cohort.


Asunto(s)
Inhibidores de Hidroximetilglutaril-CoA Reductasas , Neoplasias Hepáticas , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico , Humanos , Inhibidores de Hidroximetilglutaril-CoA Reductasas/efectos adversos , Cirrosis Hepática/complicaciones , Cirrosis Hepática/epidemiología , Neoplasias Hepáticas/complicaciones , Neoplasias Hepáticas/epidemiología , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/complicaciones , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/tratamiento farmacológico , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/epidemiología , Prevalencia
10.
Immunomedicine ; 1(2)2021 Dec.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34901734

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Immunotherapy terminology is complex and can be difficult for patients to understand, threatening informed consent. The aims of this exploratory study are to determine whether patients understand immunotherapy terminology and if the provider defining the term improves patient understanding. METHODS: Conversations between oncology providers and patients discussing immunotherapy were observed(n=39), and technical terms used were noted. With consent, patients were interviewed post-conversation to assess their understanding of these terms(n=39). Comparisons of the terms were conducted using chi-square tests, Fisher's exact tests, or ANOVA where appropriate. RESULTS: 'Immunotherapy' was the most difficult for participants to understand with 48.7% (19/39) correctly defining immunotherapy. 'Immunotherapy agents' was understood 53.8% (14/26) of the time. 'Immune system' was well understood (88.5%;23/26). Providers defined immunotherapy in 97.4% of conversations. There was no correlation between having immunotherapy defined in the conversation, and the likelihood of a correct definition (p=0.487). 'Immune system' was defined in 92.3% of conversations (n=26), and defining it in the conversation was correlated with increased patient understanding (p=0.009). CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that patients have difficulty understanding some immunotherapy terminology. Since patient understanding of key terminology is crucial for informed consent and patient care, it is essential to implement interventions to improve understanding.

11.
MDM Policy Pract ; 6(2): 23814683211041623, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34693019

RESUMEN

Background. Presenting numeric data alone may result in patients underappreciating clinically significant benefits. Contextualizing statements to counter this may raise concern about absence of neutrality. These issues arose during construction of a decision aid for sacubitril-valsartan, a heart failure medication associated with a ∼3% absolute reduction in 2-year mortality that carries high out-of-pocket cost. A contextualizing statement framing this as a "pretty big benefit" was incorporated. The impact of statements like this within decision aids is unknown. Objective. This online Qualtrics survey sought to deepen understanding of benefit framing by testing the impact of varying contextualizing statements within a decision aid for sacubitril-valsartan. Design. Participants were randomly assigned to receive one of six abbreviated versions of a decision aid for sacubitril-valsartan that varied only by contextualizing statement (ranging from strongly neutral to strongly positive and using relative and absolute risk reductions). Participants were asked to answer questions regarding the likelihood of taking the medication at a cost of $50/month and their perception of the drug's benefits. Results. A total of 1873 participants who were demographically similar to the heart failure population completed the survey. Fifty-four percent were willing to take sacubitril-valsartan at $50/month. Each of the five experimental contextualizing statements was compared with the baseline version; no significant differences were observed in reported likelihood of taking sacubitril-valsartan. After controlling for demographics and covariates, group assignment did not predict likelihood of taking the medication. Higher income, better self-reported health status, and younger age were associated with increased likelihood of taking sacubitril-valsartan. Limitations. This study used a hypothetical scenario and evaluated one method of delivering contextualizing statements. Conclusions. Contextualizing statements as tested within this decision aid did not affect decision making.

13.
Cancer ; 127(21): 4015-4021, 2021 Nov 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34289098

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: It is critical patients understand the terms used to describe oncology treatments; however, even basic chemotherapy terminology can be misunderstood. Rural communities tend to have especially low levels of health literacy compared with nonrural communities. To address low health literacy in rural communities, this study tested rural participants' understanding of previously developed educational chemotherapy videos that were designed for an underserved urban population. Participants were also asked for feedback to determine if the videos could be improved. METHODS: Fifty English-speaking patients who reside in counties classified as rural according to the Rural-Urban Continuum Code designations (RUCC 4-9) participated in the study. Participants were asked to define 6 chemotherapy terms before and after viewing a short, animated video explaining the term in English. Rates of correct and incorrect definitions provided by participants were also compared with previously published results from an urban cohort. RESULTS: All participants had statistically significantly higher rates of correct definitions for all 6 terms following the video intervention. Palliative chemotherapy understanding improved the most (10% correct prevideo and 76% postvideo intervention). For each video, the majority of participants (77%-92%) suggested no changes to the videos. CONCLUSION: Given the prevalence of low health literacy in rural communities, it is important to have effective educational interventions to improve the understanding of basic oncology-treatment terminology. This study found that short, educational videos, originally designed for an underserved urban population, can significantly improve understanding of commonly misunderstood chemotherapy terminology in a rural setting as well. LAY SUMMARY: Chemotherapy terminology can be confusing to patients. Understanding can be especially difficult in areas with low health literacy, such as underserved urban and rural communities. To address this concern, previously developed short, animated videos describing basic chemotherapy terminology were found to improve patient understanding in an underserved urban setting. In this study, the videos were tested in a rural population and their effectiveness was established. Participants in the rural setting were significantly more likely to correctly define all 6 tested terms after watching the videos. Educational tools for high-need populations are essential to ensure patients can understand the treatment they receive.


Asunto(s)
Alfabetización en Salud , Población Rural , Humanos , Población Urbana , Poblaciones Vulnerables
14.
Cancer ; 127(20): 3794-3800, 2021 10 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34161615

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic misconception (TM) refers to research subjects' failure to distinguish the goals of clinical research from standard personal care. TM has traditionally been determined by questioning the patient about the research study's purpose. Recent research, however, has questioned whether TM is as prevalent as reported due to discrepancies between patient/researcher interpretations of TM questions. The authors have created an interview tool receptive to these advancements to more accurately determine the prevalence of TM. METHODS: Patients were questioned about the trial's purpose as follows: 1) "Is the trial mostly intending to help research and gain knowledge?," 2) "Is it mostly intending to help you as a person?," or 3) "Don't know." Participants were then asked what they thought this question was asking: A) "What my own intentions are for participating," B) "What the official purpose of the research study is," or C) "Not sure." A patient exhibited TM by answering that the official trial purpose was to help him or her. RESULTS: Patients (n = 98) had a mean age of 60 years, were mostly White (64%), had a combined family annual income ≥$60,000 (61%), and 49% had a college degree. Twelve of 98 patients (12%) definitely exhibited TM. This was much lower than the author's original finding of 68% in a similar cohort. Twenty-four of 98 patients (24.5%) were unclear about what one or both questions were asking and could not be categorized. CONCLUSIONS: Previously, a patient was thought to have TM if they answered that the purpose of the trial was to benefit to him or her. An additional query about how patients interpreted that question revealed only 12% definitely had TM. LAY SUMMARY: Therapeutic misconception (TM) refers to research subjects' failure to distinguish the goals of clinical research from standard personal care. TM signals a basic misunderstanding of the purpose of clinical research, threatening valid informed consent to participate in clinical trials. TM has traditionally been determined by questioning patients about their research study's purpose. Recent research, however, has questioned whether TM is as prevalent due to discrepancies between patient/researcher interpretations of TM questions. By developing an interview-tool receptive to these advancements, we report a lower TM estimate in the phase 1 setting (12%) than we found previously in a similar cohort (68%).


Asunto(s)
Malentendido Terapéutico , Femenino , Humanos , Consentimiento Informado , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Investigadores , Sujetos de Investigación
15.
Hepatology ; 73(6): 2429-2440, 2021 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32911564

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with decompensated cirrhosis are prescribed numerous medications. Data are limited as to whether patients are receiving medications they need and avoiding those they do not. We examined a large national claims database (2010-2015) to characterize the complete medication profile as well as the factors associated with appropriate and potentially inappropriate medication use in 12,621 patients with decompensated cirrhosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Clinical guidelines and existing literature were used to determine appropriate and potentially inappropriate medications in decompensated cirrhosis. The total medication days' supply was calculated from pharmacy data and divided by the follow-up period for each decompensation. Ascites was the most common (86.5%), followed by hepatic encephalopathy (HE; 37.8%), variceal bleeding (VB; 17.5%), hepatorenal syndrome (6.3%), and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP; 6.1%). For patients with ascites, 55.8% filled a diuretic. For patients with HE, 32.4% and 63.3% filled rifaximin and lactulose, respectively. After VB, 60.3% of patients filled a nonselective beta blocker, and after an episode of SBP, 48.0% of patients filled an antibiotic for prophylaxis. The minority (4.5%-17.3%) had enough medication to cover >50% follow-up days. Potentially inappropriate medication use was common: 53.2% filled an opiate, 46.0% proton pump inhibitors, 14.2% benzodiazepines, and 10.1% nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Disease severity markers were associated with more appropriate mediation use but not consistently associated with less inappropriate medication use. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with decompensated cirrhosis are not filling indicated medications as often or as long as is recommended and are also filling medications that are potentially harmful. Future steps include integrating pharmacy records with medical records to obtain a complete medication list and counseling on medication use with patients at each visit.


Asunto(s)
Efectos Colaterales y Reacciones Adversas Relacionados con Medicamentos/prevención & control , Cirrosis Hepática , Administración del Tratamiento Farmacológico , Lista de Medicamentos Potencialmente Inapropiados/estadística & datos numéricos , Pautas de la Práctica en Medicina , Ascitis/etiología , Ascitis/terapia , Estudios de Cohortes , Progresión de la Enfermedad , Duración de la Terapia , Femenino , Necesidades y Demandas de Servicios de Salud , Humanos , Cirrosis Hepática/complicaciones , Cirrosis Hepática/tratamiento farmacológico , Cirrosis Hepática/epidemiología , Cirrosis Hepática/fisiopatología , Fallo Hepático/etiología , Fallo Hepático/terapia , Masculino , Administración del Tratamiento Farmacológico/normas , Administración del Tratamiento Farmacológico/estadística & datos numéricos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Gravedad del Paciente , Pautas de la Práctica en Medicina/normas , Pautas de la Práctica en Medicina/estadística & datos numéricos , Mejoramiento de la Calidad , Estados Unidos/epidemiología
16.
Dig Dis Sci ; 65(5): 1539-1548, 2020 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31571102

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: Type 1 hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is a fatal complication of cirrhosis. Treatments trend toward HRS reversal, but few show clear mortality benefit. We sought to quantify the progress-or lack thereof-in improving outcomes of type 1 HRS over time. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing type 1 HRS outcomes including (a) overall survival (liver transplant-free survival if reported) and (b) HRS reversal. Each study arm was analyzed separately to look at changes in outcomes over time. RCTs published comparing medical treatments for type 1 HRS were searched using several databases through July 31, 2019. RESULTS: Fourteen RCTs (28 arms) involving 778 participants enrolled between 2002 and 2018 were included. Twelve RCTs measured HRS reversal. In conjunction with albumin (or plasma expander), the most common medications used were terlipressin (13 arms), antibiotics (7), norepinephrine (6), dopamine (4), and midodrine/octreotide (3). Pooled survival rate was 34.6% (95% CI 26.4-43.8), and pooled HRS reversal rate was 42.8% (95% CI 34.2-51.9). Regression analyzing the incremental effect of the year the RCT was initiated showed that more recent studies were not associated with improved survival (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.94-1.11, p = 0.66) or HRS reversal rates (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.96-1.11, p = 0.41). There was no survival improvement when RCTs with endpoints assessed ≤ or > 1 month were analyzed separately with respective OR of 1.07 (95% CI 0.95-1.20, p = 0.26) and 0.97 (95% CI 0.85-1.12, p = 0.70). CONCLUSION: Outcomes have not improved for patients with type 1 HRS since 2002. There is a need to improve prevention and treatment of type 1 HRS.


Asunto(s)
Síndrome Hepatorrenal/tratamiento farmacológico , Síndrome Hepatorrenal/mortalidad , Adulto , Albúminas/uso terapéutico , Antibacterianos/uso terapéutico , Dopamina/uso terapéutico , Quimioterapia Combinada , Femenino , Síndrome Hepatorrenal/etiología , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Midodrina/uso terapéutico , Norepinefrina/uso terapéutico , Octreótido/uso terapéutico , Sustitutos del Plasma/uso terapéutico , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Análisis de Regresión , Tasa de Supervivencia , Terlipresina/uso terapéutico , Resultado del Tratamiento , Vasoconstrictores/uso terapéutico , Adulto Joven
17.
Liver Int ; 38(11): 1882-1890, 2018 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29845749

RESUMEN

Cirrhosis is a morbid condition associated with frequent hospitalizations and high mortality. Management of cirrhosis requires complex medication regimens to treat underlying liver disease, complications of cirrhosis and comorbid conditions. This review examines the complexities of medication management in cirrhosis, barriers to optimal medication use, and potential interventions to streamline medication regimens and avoid medication errors. A literature review was performed by searching PUBMED through December 2017 and article reference lists to identify articles relevant to medication management, complications, adherence, and interventions to improve medication use in cirrhosis. The structural barriers in cirrhosis include sheer medication complexity related to the number of medications and potential for cognitive impairment in this population, faulty medication reconciliation and limited adherence. Tested interventions have included patient self-education, provider driven patient education, intensive case management including medication blister packs and smartphone applications. Initiatives are needed to improve patient, caregiver and provider education on appropriate use of medications in patients with cirrhosis. A multidisciplinary team should be established to coordinate care with close monitoring, address patient and caregiver concerns, and to provide timely access to outpatient evaluation of urgent/complex issues. Future studies evaluating the clinical outcomes and cost effectiveness of interventions are needed.


Asunto(s)
Cirrosis Hepática/tratamiento farmacológico , Cumplimiento de la Medicación , Administración del Tratamiento Farmacológico , Manejo de Caso , Humanos , Educación del Paciente como Asunto
20.
PLoS One ; 12(11): e0187344, 2017.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29108017

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: Assessing risk of adverse outcomes among patients with chronic liver disease has been challenging due to non-linear disease progression. We previously developed accurate prediction models for fibrosis progression and clinical outcomes among patients with advanced chronic hepatitis C (CHC). The primary aim of this study was to validate fibrosis progression and clinical outcomes models among a heterogeneous patient cohort. DESIGN: Adults with CHC with ≥3 years follow-up and without hepatic decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver transplant (LT), HBV or HIV co-infection at presentation were analyzed (N = 1007). Outcomes included: 1) fibrosis progression 2) hepatic decompensation 3) HCC and 4) LT-free survival. Predictors included longitudinal clinical and laboratory data. Machine learning methods were used to predict outcomes in 1 and 3 years. RESULTS: The external cohort had a median age of 49.4 years (IQR 44.3-54.3); 61% were male, 80% white, and 79% had genotype 1. At presentation, 73% were treatment naïve and 31% had cirrhosis. Fibrosis progression occurred in 34% over a median of 4.9 years (IQR 3.2-7.6). Clinical outcomes occurred in 22% over a median of 4.4 years (IQR 3.2-7.6). Model performance for fibrosis progression was limited due to small sample size. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for 1 and 3-year risk of clinical outcomes was 0.78 (95% CI 0.73-0.83) and 0.76 (95% CI 0.69-0.81). CONCLUSION: Accurate assessments for risk of clinical outcomes can be obtained using routinely collected data across a heterogeneous cohort of patients with CHC. These methods can be applied to predict risk of progression in other chronic liver diseases.


Asunto(s)
Hepatitis C Crónica/patología , Cirrosis Hepática/patología , Adulto , Estudios de Cohortes , Progresión de la Enfermedad , Femenino , Humanos , Aprendizaje Automático , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos Teóricos , Factores de Riesgo
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