Reducing socio-ecological conflict using social influence modelling.

Polarisation of opinions across communities can lead to social conflict, reputational damage and the disruption of operations and markets. Social influence models have been widely used to better understand processes driving conflict from a theoretical perspective. Using aquaculture as a case study, we demonstrate how such models can be extended to accurately hindcast the transition from population consensus to high conflict, including observed catastrophic tipping points. We then use the model to quantitatively evaluate strategies aimed at reducing aquaculture conflict. We found that persuasive advocacy was ineffective and often counterproductive, whereas meaningful engagement, collaborative learning and improving scientific literacy targeted broadly across the population was effective in moderating opinions and reducing conflict. When such messaging was targeted too narrowly or too infrequently, it tended to be negated by ongoing exchange of misinformation within the population. Both the modelling approach and lessons on effective communication strategies are relevant to a broad range of environmental conflicts.

'Windows of opportunity': exploring the relationship between social media and plastic policies during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Plastic pollution has reached a crisis point due to ineffective waste management, an over-reliance on single-use plastic items and a lack of suitable plastic alternatives. The COVID-19 Pandemic has seen a dramatic increase in the use of single-use plastics including 'COVID waste' in the form of items specifically intended to help stop the spread of disease. Many governments have utilised COVID-19 as a window of opportunity to reverse, postpone or remove plastic policies off agendas ostensibly in order to 'flatten the curve' of COVID-19 cases. In this paper, we use novel methods of social media analysis relating to three regions (USA, Mexico and Australia) to suggest that health and hygiene were not the only reasons governments utilised this window of opportunity to change plastic policies. Beyond the influence of social media on the plastics agenda, our results highlight the potential of social media as a tool to analyse public reactions to government decisions that can be influenced by industry pressure and a broader political agenda, while not necessarily following responses to consumer behaviour.

Global estimates of fishing gear lost to the ocean each year.

Abandoned, lost, or otherwise discarded fishing gear (ALDFG) is a major contributor to ocean pollution, with extensive social, economic, and environmental impacts. However, quantitative ALDFG estimates are dated and limited in scope. To provide current global estimates, we interviewed fishers around the world about how much fishing gear they lose annually and multiplied reported losses by global fishing effort data. We estimate that nearly 2% of all fishing gear, comprising 2963 km2 of gillnets, 75,049 km2 of purse seine nets, 218 km2 of trawl nets, 739,583 km of longline mainlines, and more than 25 million pots and traps are lost to the ocean annually. These estimates represent critical baselines that can inform solutions targeted to ALDFG reduction strategies.

Deep aspirations: towards a sustainable offshore Blue Economy.

Abstract: The ocean economy is experiencing rapid growth that will provide benefits but will also pose environmental and social risks. With limited space and degraded resources in coastal areas, offshore waters will be a particular focus of Blue Economy expansion over the next decade. When emerging and established economic sectors expand in offshore waters (within national Exclusive Economic Zones), different potential Blue Economy opportunities and challenges will arise. Following a series of interdisciplinary workshops, we imagine two technically possible futures for the offshore Blue Economy and we identify the actions required to achieve the more sustainable outcome. Under a business as usual scenario the focus will remain on economic growth, the commodification of nature, the dominance of private over public and cultural interests, and prioritisation of the interests of current over future generations. A more sustainable scenario would meet multiple UN Sustainable Development Goals and ensure inclusive economic developments, environmental sustainability, and fair and equitable access to resources and technologies across users, nations, and generations. Challenges to this more sustainable future are a lack of infrastructure and technology to support emerging offshore sectors, limited understanding of environmental impacts, inequitable outcomes, and a lack of planning and governmental oversight. Addressing these challenges will require a shift in societal values, a more balanced allocation of funding to offshore activities, transparency in information sharing between industries and across nations, and adjustment of international legal and institutional mechanisms. The sustainable and equitable offshore Blue Economy we envisage is achievable and provides a unique opportunity to build global capacity and partnership.

The future of ocean governance.

Ocean governance is complex and influenced by multiple drivers and actors with different worldviews and goals. While governance encompasses many elements, in this paper we focus on the processes that operate within and between states, civil society and local communities, and the market, including industry. Specifically, in this paper, we address the question of how to move towards more sustainable ocean governance aligning with the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the UN Ocean Decade. We address three major risks to oceans that arise from governance-related issues: (1) the impacts of the overexploitation of marine resources; (2) inequitable distribution of access to and benefits from marine ecosystem services, and (3) inadequate or inappropriate adaptation to changing ocean conditions. The SDGs have been used as an underlying framework to develop these risks. We identify five drivers that may determine how ocean governance evolves, namely formal rules and institutions, evidence and knowledge-based decision-making, legitimacy of decision-making institutions, stakeholder engagement and participation, and empowering communities. These drivers were used to define two alternative futures by 2030: (a) 'Business as Usual'-a continuation of current trajectories and (b) 'More Sustainable Future'-optimistic, transformational, but technically achievable. We then identify what actions, as structured processes, can reduce the three major governance-related risks and lead to the More Sustainable Future. These actions relate to the process of co-creation and implementation of improved, comprehensive, and integrated management plans, enhancement of decision-making processes, and better anticipation and consideration of ambiguity and uncertainty. Supplementary information: The online version of this article (10.1007/s11160-020-09631-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Cleaner seas: reducing marine pollution.

In the age of the Anthropocene, the ocean has typically been viewed as a sink for pollution. Pollution is varied, ranging from human-made plastics and pharmaceutical compounds, to human-altered abiotic factors, such as sediment and nutrient runoff. As global population, wealth and resource consumption continue to grow, so too does the amount of potential pollution produced. This presents us with a grand challenge which requires interdisciplinary knowledge to solve. There is sufficient data on the human health, social, economic, and environmental risks of marine pollution, resulting in increased awareness and motivation to address this global challenge, however a significant lag exists when implementing strategies to address this issue. This review draws upon the expertise of 17 experts from the fields of social sciences, marine science, visual arts, and Traditional and First Nations Knowledge Holders to present two futures; the Business-As-Usual, based on current trends and observations of growing marine pollution, and a More Sustainable Future, which imagines what our ocean could look like if we implemented current knowledge and technologies. We identify priority actions that governments, industry and consumers can implement at pollution sources, vectors and sinks, over the next decade to reduce marine pollution and steer us towards the More Sustainable Future. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09674-8.

Oceans and society: feedbacks between ocean and human health.

The concentration of human population along coastlines has far-reaching effects on ocean and societal health. The oceans provide benefits to humans such as food, coastal protection and improved mental well-being, but can also impact negatively via natural disasters. At the same time, humans influence ocean health, for example, via coastal development or through environmental stewardship. Given the strong feedbacks between ocean and human health there is a need to promote desirable interactions, while minimising undesirable interactions. To this end, we articulate two scenarios for 2030. First, Business-as-Usual, named 'Command and (out of) Control', focuses on the anticipated future based on our current trajectory. Second, a more sustainable scenario called 'Living and Connecting', emphasises the development of interactions between oceans and society consistent with achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. We describe a potential pathway to achieving the 'Living and Connecting' scenario, centred on improving marine citizenship, achieving a more equitable distribution of power among stakeholders, and more equitable access to resources and opportunities. The constituent actions of this pathway can be categorised into four groups: (i) improved approaches to science and health communication that account for society's diverse values, beliefs and worldviews, (ii) a shift towards more trusted relationships among stakeholders to enable two-way knowledge exchange, (iii) economic incentives that encourage behavioural changes necessary for achieving desired sustainability outcomes, and (iv) stronger regulations that simultaneously focus on ocean and human health. We contend that these changes will provide improved outcomes for both oceans and society over the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09669-5.

Hybrid governance of aquaculture: Opportunities and challenges.

The development of third party assessment and certification of fisheries and aquaculture has provided new forms of governance in sectors that were traditionally dominated by state based regulation. Emerging market based approaches are driven by shareholder expectations as well as commitment to corporate social responsibility, whereas community engagement is increasingly centered on the questions of social license to operate. Third party assessment and certification links state, market and community into an interesting and challenging hybrid form of governance. While civil society organizations have long been active in pursuing sustainable and safe seafood production, the development of formal non-state based certification provides both opportunities and challenges, and opens up interesting debates over hybrid forms of governance. This paper explores these developments in coastal marine resources management, focusing on aquaculture and the development and operation of the Aquaculture Stewardship Council. It examines the case of salmonid aquaculture in Tasmania, Australia, now Australia's most valuable seafood industry, which remains the focus of considerable community debate over its siting, operation and environmental impact.