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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Home treatment is considered safe in acute pulmonary embolism (PE) patients selected by a validated triage tool (e.g. simplified PE severity index score or Hestia rule), but there is uncertainty regarding the applicability in underrepresented subgroups. The aim was to evaluate the safety of home treatment by performing an individual patient-level data meta-analysis. METHODS: Ten prospective cohort studies or randomized controlled trials were identified in a systematic search, totalling 2694 PE patients treated at home (discharged within 24â h) and identified by a predefined triage tool. The 14- and 30-day incidences of all-cause mortality and adverse events (combined endpoint of recurrent venous thromboembolism, major bleeding, and/or all-cause mortality) were evaluated. The relative risk (RR) for 14- and 30-day mortalities and adverse events is calculated in subgroups using a random effects model. RESULTS: The 14- and 30-day mortalities were 0.11% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.0-0.24, I2 = 0) and 0.30% (95% CI 0.09-0.51, I2 = 0). The 14- and 30-day incidences of adverse events were 0.56% (95% CI 0.28-0.84, I2 = 0) and 1.2% (95% CI 0.79-1.6, I2 = 0). Cancer was associated with increased 30-day mortality [RR 4.9; 95% prediction interval (PI) 2.7-9.1; I2 = 0]. Pre-existing cardiopulmonary disease, abnormal troponin, and abnormal (N-terminal pro-)B-type natriuretic peptide [(NT-pro)BNP] at presentation were associated with an increased incidence of 14-day adverse events [RR 3.5 (95% PI 1.5-7.9, I2 = 0), 2.5 (95% PI 1.3-4.9, I2 = 0), and 3.9 (95% PI 1.6-9.8, I2 = 0), respectively], but not mortality. At 30 days, cancer, abnormal troponin, and abnormal (NT-pro)BNP were associated with an increased incidence of adverse events [RR 2.7 (95% PI 1.4-5.2, I2 = 0), 2.9 (95% PI 1.5-5.7, I2 = 0), and 3.3 (95% PI 1.6-7.1, I2 = 0), respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of adverse events in home-treated PE patients, selected by a validated triage tool, was very low. Patients with cancer had a three- to five-fold higher incidence of adverse events and death. Patients with increased troponin or (NT-pro)BNP had a three-fold higher risk of adverse events, driven by recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding.
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Embolia Pulmonar , Humanos , Embolia Pulmonar/mortalidad , Enfermedad Aguda , Servicios de Atención de Salud a Domicilio , Hemorragia/epidemiología , Masculino , Femenino , Anticoagulantes/uso terapéutico , Anticoagulantes/efectos adversos , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Estudios Prospectivos , Anciano , Péptido Natriurético Encefálico/sangre , Persona de Mediana EdadAsunto(s)
Dolor Ocular , Faringitis , Infecciones Estreptocócicas , Humanos , Infecciones Estreptocócicas/complicaciones , Infecciones Estreptocócicas/diagnóstico , Infecciones Estreptocócicas/tratamiento farmacológico , Faringitis/microbiología , Dolor Ocular/etiología , Masculino , Niño , Antibacterianos/uso terapéutico , Streptococcus pyogenes/aislamiento & purificación , FemeninoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Noninvasive cardiac testing (NICT) has been associated with decreased long-term risks of major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) among emergency department patients at high coronary risk. It is unclear whether this association extends to patients without evidence of myocardial injury on initial ECG and cardiac troponin testing. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted of patients presenting with chest pain between 2013 and 2019 to 21 emergency departments within an integrated health care system in Northern California, excluding patients with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction or myocardial injury by serum troponin testing. To account for confounding by indication, we grouped patient encounters by the NICT referral rate of the initially assigned emergency physician relative to local peers within discrete time periods. The primary outcome was MACE within 2 years. Secondary outcomes were coronary revascularization and MACE, inclusive of all-cause mortality. Associations between the NICT referral group (low, intermediate, or high) and outcomes were assessed using risk-adjusted proportional hazards methods with censoring for competing events. RESULTS: Among 144 577 eligible patient encounters, the median age was 58 years (interquartile range, 48-68) and 57% were female. Thirty-day NICT referral was 13.0%, 19.9%, and 27.8% in low, intermediate, and high NICT referral groups, respectively, with a good balance of baseline covariates between groups. Compared with the low NICT referral group, there was no significant decrease in the adjusted hazard ratio of MACE within the intermediate (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.02-1.14]) or high (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.99-1.11]) NICT referral groups. Results were similar for MACE, inclusive of all-cause mortality, and coronary revascularization, as well as subgroup analyses stratified by estimated risk (history, electrocardiogram, age, risk factors, troponin [HEART] score: percent classified as low risk, 48.2%; moderate risk, 49.2%; and high risk, 2.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Increases in NICT referrals were not associated with changes in the hazard of MACE within 2 years following emergency department visits for chest pain without evidence of acute myocardial injury. These findings further highlight the need for evidence-based guidance regarding the appropriate use of NICT in this population.
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Dolor en el Pecho , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , Derivación y Consulta , Humanos , Femenino , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Estudios Retrospectivos , Dolor en el Pecho/diagnóstico , Dolor en el Pecho/sangre , Dolor en el Pecho/mortalidad , Factores de Tiempo , Medición de Riesgo , Factores de Riesgo , Pronóstico , California/epidemiología , Biomarcadores/sangre , Electrocardiografía , Revascularización Miocárdica , Troponina/sangreRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Right ventricle (RV) dysfunction increases the risk of death from pulmonary embolism (PE). C-reactive protein (CRP) might identify RV inflammation and dysfunction in patients with PE. METHODS: This cohort study enrolled consecutive stable patients with acute PE between 2017 and 2023. We stratified patients by quartiles of CRP. We evaluated the association between CRP quartiles and the presence of RV dysfunction, and used multivariable models to assess for an association between CRP and the outcomes of all-cause and PE-specific mortality during the 30 days of follow-up after PE diagnosis. RESULTS: The study included 633 stable patients with PE. Patients without RV dysfunction had significantly lower median (IQR) CRP levels compared with patients with RV dysfunction (n=509, 31.7 [10.0-76.4]mg/L vs n=124, 45.4 [16.0-111.4]mg/L; P=0.018). CRP showed a statistically significant positive association with the presence of RV dysfunction (P<0.01). On multivariable analysis, CRP level was not significantly associated with 30-day all-cause mortality (adjusted odds ratio [OR] per mg/L increment, 1.00; 95% CI, 1.00-1.01; P=0.095), but higher CRP was associated with significantly higher PE-related mortality (adjusted OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00-1.01; P=0.026). Compared with patients in CRP quartile 1, patients in quartiles 2, 3, and 4 had a stepwise increase in the adjusted odds of 30-day all-cause death of 2.41 (P=0.148), 3.04 (P=0.062), and 3.15 (P=0.052), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: As an indicator of RV dysfunction, CRP may improve risk stratification algorithms for hemodynamically stable patients with acute symptomatic PE.
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Proteína C-Reactiva , Embolia Pulmonar , Disfunción Ventricular Derecha , Humanos , Embolia Pulmonar/mortalidad , Embolia Pulmonar/sangre , Embolia Pulmonar/complicaciones , Disfunción Ventricular Derecha/sangre , Disfunción Ventricular Derecha/mortalidad , Disfunción Ventricular Derecha/etiología , Proteína C-Reactiva/análisis , Masculino , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Enfermedad Aguda , Estudios de Cohortes , Biomarcadores/sangreRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Invasive bacterial infections (IBIs) in febrile infants are rare but potentially devastating. We aimed to derive and validate a predictive model for IBI among febrile infants age 7-60 days. METHODS: Data were abstracted retrospectively from electronic records of 37 emergency departments (EDs) for infants with a measured temperature >=100.4 F who underwent an ED evaluation with blood and urine cultures. Models to predict IBI were developed and validated respectively using a random 80/20 dataset split, including 10-fold cross-validation. We used precision recall curves as the classification metric. RESULTS: Of 4411 eligible infants with a mean age of 37 days, 29% had characteristics that would likely have excluded them from existing risk stratification protocols. There were 196 patients with IBI (4.4%), including 43 (1.0%) with bacterial meningitis. Analytic approaches varied in performance characteristics (precision recall range 0.04-0.29, area under the curve range 0.5-0.84), with the XGBoost model demonstrating the best performance (0.29, 0.84). The five most important variables were serum white blood count, maximum temperature, absolute neutrophil count, absolute band count, and age in days. CONCLUSION: A machine learning model (XGBoost) demonstrated the best performance in predicting a rare outcome among febrile infants, including those excluded from existing algorithms. IMPACT: Several models for the risk stratification of febrile infants have been developed. There is a need for a preferred comprehensive model free from limitations and algorithm exclusions that accurately predicts IBIs. This is the first study to derive an all-inclusive predictive model for febrile infants aged 7-60 days in a community ED sample with IBI as a primary outcome. This machine learning model demonstrates potential for clinical utility in predicting IBI.
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BACKGROUND: High-risk pulmonary embolism (PE) is a complex, life-threatening condition, and emergency clinicians must be ready to resuscitate and rapidly pursue primary reperfusion therapy. The first-line reperfusion therapy for patients with high-risk PE is systemic thrombolytics (ST). Despite consensus guidelines, only a fraction of eligible patients receive ST for high-risk PE. OBJECTIVE: This review provides emergency clinicians with a comprehensive overview of the current evidence regarding the management of high-risk PE with an emphasis on ST and other reperfusion therapies to address the gap between practice and guideline recommendations. DISCUSSION: High-risk PE is defined as PE that causes hemodynamic instability. The high mortality rate and dynamic pathophysiology of high-risk PE make it challenging to manage. Initial stabilization of the decompensating patient includes vasopressor administration and supplemental oxygen or high-flow nasal cannula. Primary reperfusion therapy should be pursued for those with high-risk PE, and consensus guidelines recommend the use of ST for high-risk PE based on studies demonstrating benefit. Other options for reperfusion include surgical embolectomy and catheter directed interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Emergency clinicians must possess an understanding of high-risk PE including the clinical assessment, pathophysiology, management of hemodynamic instability and respiratory failure, and primary reperfusion therapies.
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Embolia Pulmonar , Terapia Trombolítica , Humanos , Embolia Pulmonar/etiología , Fibrinolíticos/uso terapéutico , Embolectomía/efectos adversos , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital , Resultado del TratamientoRESUMEN
Chronic pain is a significant public health issue that is often refractory to existing therapies. Here we use a multiomic approach to identify cis-regulatory elements that show differential chromatin accessibility and reveal transcription factor (TF) binding motifs with functional regulation in the rat dorsal root ganglion (DRG), which contain cell bodies of primary sensory neurons, after nerve injury. We integrated RNA-seq to understand how differential chromatin accessibility after nerve injury may influence gene expression. Using TF protein arrays and chromatin immunoprecipitation-qPCR, we confirmed C/EBPγ binding to a differentially accessible sequence and used RNA-seq to identify processes in which C/EBPγ plays an important role. Our findings offer insights into TF motifs that are associated with chronic pain. These data show how interactions between chromatin landscapes and TF expression patterns may work together to determine gene expression programs in rat DRG neurons after nerve injury.
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Dolor Crónico , Neuralgia , Ratas , Animales , Ratas Sprague-Dawley , Dolor Crónico/metabolismo , Neuralgia/metabolismo , Células Receptoras Sensoriales/metabolismo , Cromatina/metabolismo , Ganglios Espinales/metabolismoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The safety of transfusion of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in high plasma volume blood components to recipients without COVID-19 is not established. We assessed whether transfusion of plasma or platelet products during periods of increasing prevalence of blood donor SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination was associated with changes in outcomes in hospitalized patients without COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of hospitalized adults who received plasma or platelet transfusions at 21 hospitals during pre-COVID-19 (3/1/2018-2/29/2020), COVID-19 pre-vaccine (3/1/2020-2/28/2021), and COVID-19 post-vaccine (3/1/2021-8/31/2022) study periods. We used multivariable logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to adjust for demographics and comorbidities to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Among 21,750 hospitalizations of 18,584 transfusion recipients without COVID-19, there were 697 post-transfusion thrombotic events, and oxygen requirements were increased in 1751 hospitalizations. Intensive care unit length of stay (n = 11,683) was 3 days (interquartile range 1-5), hospital mortality occurred in 3223 (14.8%), and 30-day rehospitalization in 4144 (23.7%). Comparing the pre-COVID, pre-vaccine and post-vaccine study periods, there were no trends in thromboses (OR 0.9 [95% CI 0.8, 1.1]; p = .22) or oxygen requirements (OR 1.0 [95% CI 0.9, 1.1]; p = .41). In parallel, there were no trends across study periods for ICU length of stay (p = .83), adjusted hospital mortality (OR 1.0 [95% CI 0.9-1.0]; p = .36), or 30-day rehospitalization (p = .29). DISCUSSION: Transfusion of plasma and platelet blood components collected during the pre-vaccine and post-vaccine periods of the COVID-19 pandemic was not associated with increased adverse outcomes in transfusion recipients without COVID-19.
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Transfusión de Componentes Sanguíneos , Donantes de Sangre , COVID-19 , Transfusión de Plaquetas , Adulto , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , Oxígeno , Transfusión de Plaquetas/efectos adversos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Vacunación , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , Transfusión de Componentes Sanguíneos/efectos adversos , Plasma , HospitalizaciónRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Deaths from high-risk pulmonary embolism (PE) appear to have increased in the US over the last decade. Modifiable risks contributing to this worrisome trend present opportunities for physicians, researchers, and healthcare policymakers to improve care. METHODS: We sought to contextualize contemporary, high-risk PE epidemiology and examine clinical trials, quality improvement opportunities, and healthcare policy initiatives directed at reducing mortality. RESULTS: We observed significant and modifiable excess mortality due to high-risk PE. We identified several opportunities to improve care including: (1) rapid translation of forthcoming data on reperfusion strategies into clinical practice; (2) improved risk stratification tools; (3) quality improvement initiatives to address presumptive anticoagulation practice gaps; and (3) adoption of health policy initiatives to establish pulmonary embolism response teams and address the social determinants of health. CONCLUSION: Addressing knowledge and practice gaps in intermediate and high-risk PE management must be prioritized and informed by forthcoming high-quality data. Implementation efforts are needed to improve acute PE management and resolve treatment disparities.
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Fibrinolíticos , Embolia Pulmonar , Humanos , Fibrinolíticos/uso terapéutico , Terapia Trombolítica , Resultado del Tratamiento , Embolia Pulmonar/tratamiento farmacológico , InvestigaciónRESUMEN
Objectives: Acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is a common disease, necessitating risk stratification to determine management. A right ventricle (RV) to left ventricle (LV) diameter ratio ≥1.0 on computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) suggests RV strain, which may indicate a worse prognosis. Two prior studies showed that residents with brief training by a radiologist could accurately measure RV/LV ratio. We assessed whether medical students could accurately measure RV dilatation. Methods: We conducted a post hoc analysis of a retrospective cohort study of adults undergoing management for acute PE at 21 community emergency departments across Kaiser Permanente Northern California from 2013 to 2015. We created a sample, stratified to contain an equal number of patients from each of the 5 PE Severity Index classes. Four medical students measured RV and LV diameter on CTPA after training from an emergency medicine physician and an interventional radiologist. We used Cohen's kappa statistics, Bland-Altman plots, and Pearson correlation coefficients to assess interrater reliability. Results: Of the 108 CTPAs reviewed, 79 (73%) showed RV dilatation and 29 (27%) did not. The kappa statistic for the presence of RV dilatation of the medical students compared to the radiologist showed moderate agreement for 3 medical students (kappa (95% CI): 0.46 (0.21-0.70), 0.49 (0.31-0.68), 0.50 (0.32-0.68)) and fair agreement for 1 medical student (kappa (95% CI): 0.29 (0.10-0.47)). The average interrater differences in RV/LV ratio between a radiologist and each of the 4 medical students were -0.04, -0.05, 0.04, and 0.24. Pearson correlation coefficients were 0.87, 0.80, 0.74, and 0.78, respectively, indicating moderate correlation (P < .001 for all). Conclusion: Medical students were able to identify RV dilatation on CTPA in moderate agreement with that of a radiologist. Further study is needed to determine whether medical student accuracy could improve with additional training.
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Objective: Most outpatients with pulmonary embolism (PE) are diagnosed in the emergency department (ED). The relationship between means of arrival, site of diagnosis, and disposition in ED patients with PE is unknown. We compared discharge home between patients arriving by emergency medical services (EMS) and those arriving by other means. Within the EMS cohort, we compared those with a recent PE diagnosis in the outpatient clinic setting to those who were diagnosed with PE in the ED. Methods: This study was a secondary analysis of a retrospective cohort that included all adult, non-pregnant ED patients treated for acute PE across 21 community EDs from January 2013 to April 2015. The primary outcome was discharge home within 24 h of ED registration; we also examined mortality. We described associations with patient arrival method and other patient characteristics. Results: Among 2996 ED patient encounters with acute PE, 644 (21.5%) arrived by EMS. This group had a lower frequency of discharge (9.2% vs 26.4%) and higher 30-day all-cause mortality (8.7% vs 3.1%) than their counterparts (p < 0.001 for both). These associations remained after adjusting for confounding variables. Among the EMS cohort, 14 patients (2.2%) arrived with a PE diagnosis recently made in the outpatient setting. Conclusion: Patients with PE who arrived at the ED by EMS were less likely to be discharged home within 24 h and more likely to die within 30 days than those who arrived by other means. Less than 3% of the EMS group had been diagnosed with PE before ED arrival.
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Importance: Approximately 8% of acute pulmonary emboli are confined to the subsegmental arteries. The 2016 and 2021 American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) guidelines and expert panel reports suggest the use of structured surveillance without anticoagulation for select ambulatory patients with subsegmental pulmonary embolism who do not have active cancer, deep vein thrombosis, impaired cardiopulmonary reserve, marked symptoms, or increased risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism; however, guideline uptake in community practice is unknown, as is the proportion of outpatients eligible for surveillance. Objective: To describe the prevalence of surveillance among outpatients with acute subsegmental pulmonary embolism and to estimate the proportion of patients eligible for structured surveillance using modified CHEST criteria. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study was conducted across 21 US community hospitals in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California integrated health system from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2021. Adult outpatients with acute subsegmental pulmonary embolism were included. Patients with the following higher-risk characteristics were excluded: codiagnoses requiring hospitalization, non-low-risk vital signs (ie, systolic blood pressure <90 mm Hg, pulse ≥110 bpm, or peripheral cutaneous pulse oximetry ≤92%), prediagnosis anticoagulant use, or hospice care. Data analysis was performed from November 2022 to February 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were the (1) prevalence of surveillance and (2) eligibility for surveillance using 2 sets of criteria: the CHEST criteria modified by excluding patients with higher-risk characteristics or right ventricular dysfunction and a stricter set of criteria requiring age younger than 65 years and no more than 1 embolus. The prevalence of structured surveillance was calculated and the proportion of patients eligible for surveillance was estimated. Results: Of the 666 outpatients with acute subsegmental pulmonary embolism included in this study, 229 with lower-risk characteristics were examined. Their median age was 58 (IQR, 42-68) years; more than half were men (120 [52.4%]) and self-identified as non-Hispanic White (128 [55.9%]). Six patients (2.6%) were initially not treated with anticoagulants. Among the lower-risk cohort, only 1 patient (0.4% [95% CI, 0.01%-2.4%]) underwent structured surveillance, without 90-day sequelae. Thirty-five patients (15.3% of the lower-risk group and 5.3% of the full cohort) were surveillance eligible using modified CHEST criteria. Fifteen patients (6.6% of the lower-risk group and 2.3% of the full cohort) were surveillance eligible using stricter criteria. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of lower-risk outpatients with subsegmental pulmonary embolism, few were eligible for structured surveillance, and only a small proportion of eligible patients underwent surveillance despite the CHEST guideline. If forthcoming trials find surveillance safe and effective, substantial uptake into clinical practice may require more than passive diffusion.
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Anticoagulantes , Embolia Pulmonar , Masculino , Humanos , Adulto , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Femenino , Estudios de Cohortes , Estudios Retrospectivos , Prevalencia , Resultado del Tratamiento , Anticoagulantes/uso terapéutico , Embolia Pulmonar/tratamiento farmacológico , Embolia Pulmonar/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Introduction There is considerable variation in the approach to infants presenting to the emergency department (ED) with fever. The authors' primary aim was to develop a robust set of algorithms using community ED data to inform modifications of broader clinical guidance. Methods The authors report the development of California Febrile Infant Risk Stratification Tool (CA FIRST) using key components of the Roseville Protocol (ROS) and American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) Clinical Practice Guideline (CPG). Expanded guidance was derived using a retrospective analysis of a cohort of 3527 febrile infants aged 7-90 days presenting to any Kaiser Permanente Northern California ED between 2010 and 2019 who underwent a core febrile infant evaluation. Results Melding ROS and AAP CPG algorithms in infants 7-60 days old, CA FIRST Algorithms had comparable performance characteristics to ROS and AAP CPG. CA FIRST enhancements included guidance on febrile infants 61-90 days old, high-risk infants, infants with bronchiolitis, and infants who received immunizations within the prior 48 hours. This retrospective analysis revealed that of 235 febrile infants 22-90 days old with respiratory syncytial virus and 221 who had fever in the 48 hours following vaccination, there were no cases of invasive bacterial infection. Discussion CA FIRST is a set of 13 algorithms providing a thoughtful and flexible approach to the febrile infant while minimizing unnecessary interventions. Conclusions CA FIRST Algorithms empower clinicians to manage most febrile infants. Algorithms are being modified as new data become available, imparting useful and ever-current educational information within a learning health care system.
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Aprendizaje del Sistema de Salud , Lactante , Humanos , Niño , Estudios Retrospectivos , Especies Reactivas de Oxígeno , Fiebre/microbiología , California , Medición de Riesgo , AlgoritmosRESUMEN
STUDY OBJECTIVE: Although recommended by professional society guidelines, outpatient management of low-risk pulmonary embolism (PE) from emergency departments (EDs) in the US remains uncommon. The objective of this study was to identify barriers and facilitators to the outpatient management of PE from the ED using implementation science methodology. METHODS: We conducted semistructured interviews with a purposeful sample of emergency physicians using maximum variation sampling, aiming to recruit physicians with diverse practice patterns regarding the management of low-risk PE. We developed an interview guide using the implementation science frameworks-the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research and the Theoretical Domains Framework. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and analyzed in an iterative process. RESULTS: We interviewed 26 emergency physicians from 11 hospital systems, and the participants were diverse with regard to years in practice, practice setting, and engagement with outpatient management of PE. Although outer setting determinants, such as medicolegal climate, follow-up, and insurance status were universal, our participants revealed that the importance of these determinants were moderated by individual-level and inner setting determinants. Prominent themes included belief in consequences, belief in capabilities, and institutional support and culture. Inertia of clinical practice and complexity of the process were important subthemes. CONCLUSION: In this qualitative study, clinicians reported common barriers and facilitators that initially focused on outer setting and external barriers but centered on clinician beliefs, fear, and local culture. Efforts to increase outpatient treatment of select patients with acute PE should be informed by these barriers and facilitators, which are aligned with the deimplementation theory.
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Pacientes Ambulatorios , Embolia Pulmonar , Humanos , Atención Ambulatoria , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital , Miedo , Embolia Pulmonar/terapiaRESUMEN
Objectives: Efficient and accurate emergency department (ED) triage is critical to prioritize the sickest patients and manage department flow. We explored the use of electronic health record data and advanced predictive analytics to improve triage performance. Methods: Using a data set of over 5 million ED encounters of patients 18 years and older across 21 EDs from 2016 to 2020, we derived triage models using deep learning to predict 2 outcomes: hospitalization (primary outcome) and fast-track eligibility (exploratory outcome), defined as ED discharge with <2 resource types used (eg, laboratory or imaging studies) and no critical events (eg, resuscitative medications use or intensive care unit [ICU] admission). We report area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for models using (1) triage variables alone (demographics and vital signs), (2) triage nurse clinical assessment alone (unstructured notes), and (3) triage variables plus clinical assessment for each prediction target. Results: We found 12.7% of patients were hospitalized (n = 673,659) and 37.0% were fast-track eligible (n = 1,966,615). The AUC was lowest for models using triage variables alone: AUC 0.77 (95% CI 0.77-0.78) and 0.70 (95% CI 0.70-0.71) for hospitalization and fast-track eligibility, respectively, and highest for models incorporating clinical assessment with triage variables for both hospitalization and fast-track eligibility: AUC 0.87 (95% CI 0.87-0.87) for both prediction targets. Conclusion: Our findings highlight the potential to use advanced predictive analytics to accurately predict key ED triage outcomes. Predictive accuracy was optimized when clinical assessments were added to models using simple structured variables alone.