Predation strongly limits demography of a keystone migratory herbivore in a recovering transfrontier ecosystem.

Large herbivore migrations are imperiled globally; however the factors limiting a population across its migratory range are typically poorly understood. Zambia's Greater Liuwa Ecosystem (GLE) contains one of the largest remaining blue wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus taurinus) migrations, yet the population structure, vital rates, and limiting factors are virtually unknown. We conducted a long-term demographic study of GLE wildebeest from 2012 to 2019 of 107 collared adult females and their calves, 7352 herd observations, 12 aerial population surveys, and concurrent carnivore studies. We applied methods of vital rate estimation and survival analysis within a Bayesian estimation framework. From herd composition observations, we estimated rates of fecundity, first-year survival, and recruitment as 68%, 56%, and 38% respectively, with pronounced interannual variation. Similar rates were estimated from calf-detections with collared cows. Adult survival rates declined steadily from 91% at age 2 years to 61% at age 10 years thereafter dropping more sharply to 2% at age 16 years. Predation, particularly by spotted hyena, was the predominant cause of death for all wildebeest ages and focused on older animals. Starvation only accounted for 0.8% of all unbiased known natural causes of death. Mortality risk differed substantially between wet and dry season ranges, reflecting strong spatio-temporal differences in habitat and predator densities. There was substantial evidence that mortality risk to adults was 27% higher in the wet season, and strong evidence that it was 45% higher in the migratory range where predator density was highest. The estimated vital rates were internally consistent, predicting a stable population trajectory consistent with aerial estimates. From essentially zero knowledge of GLE wildebeest dynamics, this work provides vital rates, age structure, limiting factors, and a plausible mechanism for the migratory tendency, and a robust model-based foundation to evaluate the effects of potential restrictions in migratory range, climate change, predator-prey dynamics, and poaching.

Foraging investment in a long-lived herbivore and vulnerability to coursing and stalking predators.

Allocating resources to growth and reproduction requires grazers to invest time in foraging, but foraging promotes dental senescence and constrains expression of proactive antipredator behaviors such as vigilance. We explored the relationship between carnivore prey selection and prey foraging effort using incisors collected from the kills of coursing and stalking carnivores. We predicted that prey investing less effort in foraging would be killed more frequently by coursers, predators that often exploit physical deficiencies. However, such prey could expect delayed dental senescence. We predicted that individuals investing more effort in foraging would be killed more frequently by stalkers, predators that often exploit behavioral vulnerabilities. Further these prey could expect earlier dental senescence. We tested these predictions by comparing variation in age-corrected tooth wear, a proxy of cumulative foraging effort, in adult (3.4-11.9 years) wildebeest killed by coursing and stalking carnivores. Predator type was a strong predictor of age-corrected tooth wear within each gender. We found greater foraging effort and earlier expected dental senescence, equivalent to 2.6 additional years of foraging, in female wildebeest killed by stalkers than in females killed by coursers. However, male wildebeest showed the opposite pattern with the equivalent of 2.4 years of additional tooth wear in males killed by coursers as compared to those killed by stalkers. Sex-specific variation in the effects of foraging effort on vulnerability was unexpected and suggests that behavioral and physical aspects of vulnerability may not be subject to the same selective pressures across genders in multipredator landscapes.

Interstellar medium. Pseudo-three-dimensional maps of the diffuse interstellar band at 862 nm.

The diffuse interstellar bands (DIBs) are absorption lines observed in visual and near-infrared spectra of stars. Understanding their origin in the interstellar medium is one of the oldest problems in astronomical spectroscopy, as DIBs have been known since 1922. In a completely new approach to understanding DIBs, we combined information from nearly 500,000 stellar spectra obtained by the massive spectroscopic survey RAVE (Radial Velocity Experiment) to produce the first pseudo-three-dimensional map of the strength of the DIB at 8620 angstroms covering the nearest 3 kiloparsecs from the Sun, and show that it follows our independently constructed spatial distribution of extinction by interstellar dust along the Galactic plane. Despite having a similar distribution in the Galactic plane, the DIB 8620 carrier has a significantly larger vertical scale height than the dust. Even if one DIB may not represent the general DIB population, our observations outline the future direction of DIB research.

Estimating environmental conditions affecting protozoal pathogen removal in surface water wetland systems using a multi-scale, model-based approach.

Cryptosporidium parvum, Giardia lamblia, and Toxoplasma gondii are waterborne protozoal pathogens distributed worldwide and empirical evidence suggests that wetlands reduce the concentrations of these pathogens under certain environmental conditions. The goal of this study was to evaluate how protozoal removal in surface water is affected by the water temperature, turbidity, salinity, and vegetation cover of wetlands in the Monterey Bay region of California. To examine how protozoal removal was affected by these environmental factors, we conducted observational experiments at three primary spatial scales: settling columns, recirculating wetland mesocosm tanks, and an experimental research wetland (Molera Wetland). Simultaneously, we developed a protozoal transport model for surface water to simulate the settling columns, the mesocosm tanks, and the Molera Wetland. With a high degree of uncertainty expected in the model predictions and field observations, we developed the model within a Bayesian statistical framework. We found protozoal removal increased when water flowed through vegetation, and with higher levels of turbidity, salinity, and temperature. Protozoal removal in surface water was maximized (~0.1 hour(-1)) when flowing through emergent vegetation at 2% cover, and with a vegetation contact time of ~30 minutes compared to the effects of temperature, salinity, and turbidity. Our studies revealed that an increase in vegetated wetland area, with water moving through vegetation, would likely improve regional water quality through the reduction of fecal protozoal pathogen loads.

Hydrologic and vegetative removal of Cryptosporidium parvum, Giardia lamblia, and Toxoplasma gondii Surrogate microspheres in coastal wetlands.

Constructed wetland systems are used to reduce pollutants and pathogens in wastewater effluent, but comparatively little is known about pathogen transport through natural wetland habitats. Fecal protozoans, including Cryptosporidium parvum, Giardia lamblia, and Toxoplasma gondii, are waterborne pathogens of humans and animals, which are carried by surface waters from land-based sources into coastal waters. This study evaluated key factors of coastal wetlands for the reduction of protozoal parasites in surface waters using settling column and recirculating mesocosm tank experiments. Settling column experiments evaluated the effects of salinity, temperature, and water type ("pure" versus "environmental") on the vertical settling velocities of C. parvum, G. lamblia, and T. gondii surrogates, with salinity and water type found to significantly affect settling of the parasites. The mesocosm tank experiments evaluated the effects of salinity, flow rate, and vegetation parameters on parasite and surrogate counts, with increased salinity and the presence of vegetation found to be significant factors for removal of parasites in a unidirectional transport wetland system. Overall, this study highlights the importance of water type, salinity, and vegetation parameters for pathogen transport within wetland systems, with implications for wetland management, restoration efforts, and coastal water quality.

Longitudinal Poisson regression to evaluate the epidemiology of Cryptosporidium, Giardia, and fecal indicator bacteria in coastal California wetlands.

Fecal pathogen contamination of watersheds worldwide is increasingly recognized, and natural wetlands may have an important role in mitigating fecal pathogen pollution flowing downstream. Given that waterborne protozoa, such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia, are transported within surface waters, this study evaluated associations between fecal protozoa and various wetland-specific and environmental risk factors. This study focused on three distinct coastal California wetlands: (i) a tidally influenced slough bordered by urban and agricultural areas, (ii) a seasonal wetland adjacent to a dairy, and (iii) a constructed wetland that receives agricultural runoff. Wetland type, seasonality, rainfall, and various water quality parameters were evaluated using longitudinal Poisson regression to model effects on concentrations of protozoa and indicator bacteria (Escherichia coli and total coliform). Among wetland types, the dairy wetland exhibited the highest protozoal and bacterial concentrations, and despite significant reductions in microbe concentrations, the wetland could still be seen to influence water quality in the downstream tidal wetland. Additionally, recent rainfall events were associated with higher protozoal and bacterial counts in wetland water samples across all wetland types. Notably, detection of E. coli concentrations greater than a 400 most probable number (MPN) per 100 ml was associated with higher Cryptosporidium oocyst and Giardia cyst concentrations. These findings show that natural wetlands draining agricultural and livestock operation runoff into human-utilized waterways should be considered potential sources of pathogens and that wetlands can be instrumental in reducing pathogen loads to downstream waters.

Climate change intensification of herbivore impacts on tree recruitment.

Altered species interactions are difficult to predict and yet may drive the response of ecological communities to climate change. We show that declining snowpack strengthens the impacts of a generalist herbivore, elk (Cervus elaphus), on a common tree species. Thick snowpack substantially reduces elk visitation to sites; aspen (Populus tremuloides) shoots in these areas experience lower browsing rates, higher survival and enhanced recruitment. Aspen inside herbivore exclosures have greatly increased recruitment, particularly at sites with thick snowpack. We suggest that long-term decreases in snowpack could help explain a widespread decline of aspen through previously unconsidered relationships. More generally, reduced snowpack across the Rocky Mountains, combined with rising elk populations, may remove the conditions needed for recruitment of this ecologically important tree species. These results highlight that herbivore behavioural responses to altered abiotic conditions are critical determinants of plant persistence. Predictions of climate change impacts must not overlook the crucial importance of species interactions.

Predicting bison migration out of Yellowstone National Park using bayesian models.

Long distance migrations by ungulate species often surpass the boundaries of preservation areas where conflicts with various publics lead to management actions that can threaten populations. We chose the partially migratory bison (Bison bison) population in Yellowstone National Park as an example of integrating science into management policies to better conserve migratory ungulates. Approximately 60% of these bison have been exposed to bovine brucellosis and thousands of migrants exiting the park boundary have been culled during the past two decades to reduce the risk of disease transmission to cattle. Data were assimilated using models representing competing hypotheses of bison migration during 1990-2009 in a hierarchal bayesian framework. Migration differed at the scale of herds, but a single unifying logistic model was useful for predicting migrations by both herds. Migration beyond the northern park boundary was affected by herd size, accumulated snow water equivalent, and aboveground dried biomass. Migration beyond the western park boundary was less influenced by these predictors and process model performance suggested an important control on recent migrations was excluded. Simulations of migrations over the next decade suggest that allowing increased numbers of bison beyond park boundaries during severe climate conditions may be the only means of avoiding episodic, large-scale reductions to the Yellowstone bison population in the foreseeable future. This research is an example of how long distance migration dynamics can be incorporated into improved management policies.

Covariates affecting spatial variability in bison travel behavior in Yellowstone National Park.

Understanding mechanisms influencing the movement paths of animals is essential for comprehending behavior and accurately predicting use of travel corridors. In Yellowstone National Park (USA), the effects of roads and winter road grooming on bison (Bison bison) travel routes and spatial dynamics have been debated for more than a decade. However, no rigorous studies have been conducted on bison spatial movement patterns. We collected 121 380 locations from 14 female bison with GPS collars in central Yellowstone to examine how topography, habitat type, roads, and elevation affected the probability of bison travel year-round. We also conducted daily winter bison road use surveys (2003-2005) to quantify how topography and habitat type influenced spatial variability in the amount of bison road travel. Using model comparison techniques, we found the probability of bison travel and spatial distribution of travel locations were affected by multiple topographic and habitat type attributes including slope, landscape roughness, habitat type, elevation, and distances to streams, foraging areas, forested habitats, and roads. Streams were the most influential natural landscape feature affecting bison travel, and results suggest the bison travel network throughout central Yellowstone is spatially defined largely by the presence of streams that connect foraging areas. Also, the probability of bison travel was higher in regions of variable topography that constrain movements, such as in canyons. Pronounced travel corridors existed both in close association with roads and distant from any roads, and results indicate that roads may facilitate bison travel in certain areas. However, our findings suggest that many road segments used as travel corridors are overlaid upon natural travel pathways because road segments receiving high amounts of bison travel had similar landscape features as natural travel corridors. We suggest that most spatial patterns in bison road travel are a manifestation of general spatial travel trends. Our research offers novel insights into bison spatial dynamics and provides conceptual and analytical frameworks for examining movement patterns of other species.

Temporal variability in winter travel patterns of Yellowstone bison: the effects of road grooming.

The influence of winter recreation on wildlife in Yellowstone National Park (YNP), Wyoming and Montana, USA, is a controversial issue. In particular, the effects of road grooming, done to facilitate snowmobile and snowcoach travel, on bison (Bison bison) ecology are under debate. We collected data during winters, from 1997 to 2005, on bison road use, off-road travel, and activity budgets to quantify temporal trends in the amount of bison road and off-road travel and to identify the ecological factors affecting bison movements and use of the groomed road system in the Madison-Gibbon-Firehole (MGF) area of YNP. Using model comparison techniques, we found bison travel patterns to be influenced by multiple, interacting effects. Road travel was negatively correlated with road grooming, and we found no evidence that bison preferentially used groomed roads during winter. Snow water equivalent, bison density, and the springtime melt period were positively correlated with both bison road and off-road travel. From behavioral scans on 68,791 bison, we found that travel is only a small percentage (11%) of all bison activity, with foraging comprising 67% of observations. Also, only 7% of traveling bison and 30% of foraging bison were displacing snow, and we suggest foraging, rather than traveling, is likely the major energetic cost to bison in winter. Bison utilize their own trail network, connecting foraging areas using stream corridors, geothermal pathways, and self-groomed travel routes. Our results indicate that temporal patterns in bison road travel are a manifestation of general travel behavior and that groomed roads in the MGF do not appear to be a major factor influencing bison ecology and spatial redistribution. We suggest that the changes in bison spatial dynamics during the past three decades have likely been the result of the natural phenomenon of density-dependent range expansion, rather than having been caused by the anthropogenic influence of road grooming.