Neoadjuvant therapy versus upfront surgical strategies in resectable pancreatic cancer: A Markov decision analysis.

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant therapy is gaining acceptance as a valid treatment option for borderline resectable pancreatic cancer; however, its value for clearly resectable pancreatic cancer remains controversial. The aim of this study was to use a Markov decision analysis model, in the absence of adequately powered randomized trials, to compare the life expectancy (LE) and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) of neoadjuvant therapy to conventional upfront surgical strategies in resectable pancreatic cancer patients. METHODS: A Markov decision model was created to compare two strategies: attempted pancreatic resection followed by adjuvant chemoradiotherapy and neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by restaging with, if appropriate, attempted pancreatic resection. Data obtained through a comprehensive systematic search in PUBMED of the literature from 2000 to 2015 were used to estimate the probabilities used in the model. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: Of the 786 potentially eligible studies identified, 22 studies met the inclusion criteria and were used to extract the probabilities used in the model. Base case analyses of the model showed a higher LE (32.2 vs. 26.7 months) and QALE (25.5 vs. 20.8 quality-adjusted life months) for patients in the neoadjuvant therapy arm compared to upfront surgery. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses for LE and QALE revealed that neoadjuvant therapy is favorable in 59% and 60% of the cases respectively. CONCLUSION(S): Although conceptual, these data suggest that neoadjuvant therapy offers substantial benefit in LE and QALE for resectable pancreatic cancer patients. These findings highlight the value of further prospective randomized trials comparing neoadjuvant therapy to conventional upfront surgical strategies.

The long-term benefits of genotypic resistance testing in patients with extensive prior antiretroviral therapy: a model-based approach.

OBJECTIVES: Resistance testing in HIV disease may provide long-term benefits that are not evident from short-term data. Our objectives were to estimate the long-term effectiveness, cost and cost-effectiveness of genotype testing in patients with extensive antiretroviral exposure. METHODS: We used an HIV simulation model to estimate the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of genotype testing. Clinical data incorporated into the model were from NARVAL, a randomized trial of resistance testing in patients with extensive antiretroviral exposure, and other randomized trials. Each simulated patient was eligible for up to three sequential regimens of antiretroviral therapy (i.e. two additional regimens beyond the trial-based regimen) using drugs not available at the time of the study, such as lopinavir/ritonavir, darunavir/ritonavir and enfuvirtide. RESULTS: In the long term, projected undiscounted life expectancy increased from 132.2 months with clinical judgement alone to 147.9 months with genotype testing. Median survival was estimated at 11.9 years in the resistance testing arm vs 10.4 years in the clinical judgement alone arm. Because of increased survival, the projected lifetime discounted cost of genotype testing was greater than for clinical judgement alone (euro313,900 vs euro263,100; US$399,000 vs US$334,400). Genotype testing cost euro69,600 (US$88,500) per quality-adjusted life year gained compared with clinical judgement alone. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with extensive prior antiretroviral exposure, genotype testing is likely to increase life expectancy in the long term as a result of the increased likelihood of receiving two active new drugs. Genotype testing is associated with cost-effectiveness comparable to that of strategies accepted in patients with advanced HIV disease, such as enfuvirtide use.

Impact of opportunistic diseases on chronic mortality in HIV-infected adults in Côte d'Ivoire.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate incidence rates of opportunistic diseases (ODs) and mortality for patients with and without a history of OD among HIV-infected patients in Côte d'Ivoire. METHODS: Using incidence density analysis, we estimated rates of ODs and chronic mortality by CD4 count in patients in a cotrimoxazole prophylaxis trial in Abidjan before the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) era. Chronic mortality was defined as death without a history of OD or death more than 30 days after an OD diagnosis. We used Poisson's regression to examine the effect of OD history on chronic mortality after adjusting for age, gender, and current CD4 count. RESULTS: Two hundred and seventy patients (40% male, mean age 33 years, median baseline CD4 count 261 cells/microl) were followed up for a median of 9.5 months. Bacterial infections and tuberculosis were the most common severe ODs. Of 47 patients who died, 9 (19%) died within 30 days of an OD, 26 (55%) died more than 30 days after an OD, and 12 (26%) died with no OD history. The chronic mortality rate was 31.0/100 person-years for those with an OD history, and 11.1/100 person-years for those with no OD history (rate ratio (RR) 2.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.43 - 5.54). Multivariate analysis revealed that OD history remained an independent predictor of mortality (RR 2.15, 95% CI: 1.07 - 4.33) after adjusting for CD4 count, age and gender. CONCLUSIONS: Before the HAART era, a history of OD was associated with increased chronic HIV mortality in Côte d'Ivoire, even after adjusting for CD4 count. These results provide further evidence supporting OD prophylaxis in HIV-infected patients.

Cost-effectiveness of nucleic acid test screening of volunteer blood donations for hepatitis B, hepatitis C and human immunodeficiency virus in the United States.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine the cost-effectiveness of adding nucleic acid testing (NAT) to serological (antibody and antigen) screening protocols for donated blood in the United States (US) with the purpose of reducing the risks of transfusion-transmission of hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The costs, health consequences and cost-effectiveness of adding either minipool or individual-donor NAT to serological screening (SS) testing were estimated using a decision-analysis model. RESULTS: With the given modelling assumptions, adding minipool NAT would avoid an estimated 37, 128 and eight cases of HBV, HCV and HIV, respectively, and save approximately 53 additional years of life and 102 additional quality adjusted life years (QALYs) compared with SS, at a net cost of $154 million. SS + minipool NAT - p24 compared with SS alone resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $1.5 million per QALY gained (range in sensitivity analysis $1.0-2.1 million per QALY gained) in this US analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The cost effectiveness of adding NAT screening is outside the typical range for most healthcare interventions, but not for established blood safety measures.

Prevention of human immunodeficiency virus-related opportunistic infections in France: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

A simulation model of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease, which incorporated French data on the progression of HIV disease in the absence of antiretroviral therapy and on cost, was used to determine the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of different strategies for the prevention of opportunistic infections in French patients who receive highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Compared with use of no prophylaxis, use of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMZ) increased per-person lifetime costs from euro 185,600 to euro 187,900 and quality-adjusted life expectancy from 112.2 to 113.7 months, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of euro 18,700 per quality-adjusted life-year (euro/QALY) gained. Compared with use of TMP-SMZ alone, use of TMP-SMZ plus azithromycin cost euro 23,900/QALY gained; adding fluconazole cost an additional euro 54,500/QALY gained. All strategies that included oral ganciclovir had cost-effectiveness ratios that exceeded euro 100,000/QALY gained. In the era of HAART, on the basis of French data, prophylaxis against Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, toxoplasmic encephalitis, and Mycobacterium avium complex bacteremia is cost-effective. Prophylaxis against fungal and cytomegalovirus infections is less cost-effective than are other therapeutic options for HIV disease and should remain of lower priority.

Modeling for health care and other policy decisions: uses, roles, and validity.

The role of models to support recommendations on the cost-effective use of medical technologies and pharmaceuticals is controversial. At the heart of the controversy is the degree to which experimental or other empirical evidence should be required prior to model use. The controversy stems in part from a misconception that the role of models is to establish truth rather than to guide clinical and policy decisions. In other domains of public policy that involve human life and health, such as environmental protection and defense strategy, models are generally accepted as decision aids, and many models have been formally incorporated into regulatory processes and governmental decision making. We formulate an analytical framework for evaluating the role of models as aids to decision making. Implications for the implementation of Section 114 of the Food and Drug Administration Modernization Act (FDAMA) are derived from this framework.

The effect of risk factor reductions between 1981 and 1990 on coronary heart disease incidence, prevalence, mortality and cost.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to estimate the impact and cost-effectiveness of risk factor reductions between 1981 and 1990. BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have declined dramatically, partly as a result of reductions in CHD risk factors. METHODS: We used the CHD Policy Model, a validated computer-simulation model, to estimate the effects of actual investments made to change coronary risk factors between 1981 and 1990, as well as the impact of these changes on the incidence, prevalence, mortality and costs of CHD during this period and projected to 2015. RESULTS: Observed changes in risk factors between 1981 and 1990 resulted in a reduction of CHD deaths by approximately 430,000 and overall deaths by approximately 740,000, with an estimated cost-effectiveness of about $44,000 per year of life saved during this period, based on the estimated actual costs of the interventions used. However, because much of the benefit of risk factor reductions is delayed, the estimated reductions for the 35-year period of 1981 to 2015 were 3.6 million CHD deaths and 1.2 million non-CHD deaths, at a cost of only about $5,400 per year of life saved. CONCLUSIONS: Aggregate efforts to reduce risk factors between 1981 and 1990 have led to substantial reductions in CHD and should be well worth the cost, largely because of population-wide changes in life-style and habits. Some interventions are much better investments than others, and attention to such issues could lead to better use of resources and better outcomes in the future.

Cost-effectiveness of earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy for uninsured HIV-infected adults.

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to examine the societal cost-effectiveness and the impact on government payers of earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy for uninsured HIV-infected adults. METHODS: A state-transition simulation model of HIV disease was used. Data were derived from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, published randomized trials, and medical care cost estimates for all government payers and for Massachusetts, NewYork, and Florida. RESULTS: Quality-adjusted life expectancy increased from 7.64 years with therapy initiated at 200 CD4 cells/microL to 8.21 years with therapy initiated at 500 CD4 cells/microL. Initiating therapy at 500 CD4/microL was a more efficient use of resources than initiating therapy at 200 CD4/microL and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $17,300 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, compared with no therapy. Costs to state payers in the first 5 years ranged from $5,500 to $24,900 because of differences among the states in the availability of federal funds forAIDS drug assistance programs. CONCLUSIONS: Antiretroviral therapy initiated at 500 CD4 cells/microL is cost-effective from a societal: perspective compared with therapy initiated later. States should consider Medicaid waivers to expand access to early therapy.

Cost effectiveness of human papillomavirus testing to augment cervical cancer screening in women infected with the human immunodeficiency virus.

PURPOSE: To determine the cost effectiveness of incorporating molecular testing for high-risk types of human papillomavirus into a cervical cancer screening program for women infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We developed a Markov model to simulate the natural history of cervical cancer precursor lesions in HIV-infected women. Probabilities of progression and regression of cervical lesions were conditional on transient or persistent infection with human papillomavirus, as well as stage of HIV and effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy. Incorporating data from prospective cohort studies, national databases, and published literature, the model was used to calculate quality-adjusted life expectancy, life expectancy, lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for two main strategies: targeted screening-human papillomavirus testing is added to the initial two cervical cytology smears obtained after an HIV diagnosis and subsequent screening intervals are modified based on the test results; and universal screening-no testing for human papillomavirus is performed, and a single cytology screening interval is applied to all women. RESULTS: In HIV-infected women on anti-retroviral therapy, a targeted screening strategy in which cervical cytology screening was conducted every 6 months for women with detected human papillomavirus DNA, and annually for all others, cost $10,000 to $14,000 per quality-adjusted life year gained compared with no screening. A universal screening strategy consisting of annual cervical cytology for all women was 15% less effective and had a less attractive cost-effectiveness ratio. Targeted screening remained economically attractive in multiple sensitivity analyses, although when the overall incidence of cervical cancer precursor lesions was lowered by 75%, the screening interval for women with detected human papillomavirus DNA could be widened to 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: Adding human papillomavirus testing to the two cervical cytology smears obtained in the year after an HIV diagnosis, and modifying subsequent cytology screening intervals based on the results, appears to be an effective and cost-effective modification to current recommendations for annual cytology screening in HIV-infected women.

Cost-effectiveness of vitamin therapy to lower plasma homocysteine levels for the prevention of coronary heart disease: effect of grain fortification and beyond.

CONTEXT: A high homocysteine level has been identified as an independent modifiable risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) events and death. Since January 1998, the US Food and Drug Administration has required that all enriched grain products contain 140 microg of folic acid per 100 g, a level considered to decrease homocysteine levels. OBJECTIVES: To examine the potential effect of grain fortification with folic acid on CHD events and to estimate the cost-effectiveness of additional vitamin supplementation (folic acid and cyanocobalamin) for CHD prevention. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cost-effectiveness analysis using the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model, a validated, state-transition model of CHD events in adults aged 35 through 84 years. Data from the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) were used to estimate age- and sex-specific differences in homocysteine levels. INTERVENTION: Hypothetical comparison between a diet that includes enriched grain products projected to increase folic acid intake by 100 microg/d with the same diet without folic acid fortification; and a comparison between vitamin therapy that consists of 1 mg of folic acid and 0.5 mg of cyanocobalamin and the diet that includes grains fortified with folic acid. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of myocardial infarction and death from CHD, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) saved, and medical costs. RESULTS: Grain fortification with folic acid was predicted to decrease CHD events by 8% in women and 13% in men, with comparable reductions in CHD mortality. The model projected that, compared with grain fortification alone, treating all patients with known CHD with folic acid and cyanocobalamin over a 10-year period would result in 310 000 fewer deaths and lower costs. Over the same 10-year period, providing vitamin supplementation in addition to grain fortification to all men aged 45 years or older without known CHD was projected to save more than 300 000 QALYs, to save more than US $2 billion, and to be the preferred strategy. For women without CHD, the preferred vitamin supplementation strategy would be to treat all women older than 55 years, a strategy projected to save more than 140 000 QALYs over 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Folic acid and cyanocobalamin supplementation may be cost-effective among many population subgroups and could have a major epidemiologic benefit for primary and secondary prevention of CHD if ongoing clinical trials confirm that homocysteine-lowering therapy decreases CHD event rates.

Should physicians be gatekeepers of medical resources?

Physicians have an ethical responsibility to their patients to offer the best available medical care. This responsibility conflicts with their role as gatekeepers of the limited health care resources available for all patients collectively. It is ethically untenable to expect doctors to face this trade-off during each patient encounter; the physician cannot be expected to compromise the wellbeing of the patient in the office in favour of anonymous patients elsewhere. Hence, as in other domains of public policy where individual and collective interests conflict, some form of collective solution is required. Collective solutions may take the form of placing explicit resource constraints on resources available to physicians, or clinical practice guidelines that recognise cost-effective care as acceptable. Such solutions will be politically and ethically sustainable only if patients as citizens of the larger population accept the need for rationing of limited resources in health care.

Bayesian value-of-information analysis. An application to a policy model of Alzheimer's disease.

A framework is presented that distinguishes the conceptually separate decisions of which treatment strategy is optimal from the question of whether more information is required to inform this choice in the future. The authors argue that the choice of treatment strategy should be based on expected utility, and the only valid reason to characterize the uncertainty surrounding outcomes of interest is to establish the value of acquiring additional information. A Bayesian decision theoretic approach is demonstrated through a probabilistic analysis of a published policy model of Alzheimer's disease. The expected value of perfect information is estimated for the decision to adopt a new pharmaceutical for the population of patients with Alzheimer's disease in the United States. This provides an upper bound on the value of additional research. The value of information is also estimated for each of the model inputs. This analysis can focus future research by identifying those parameters where more precise estimates would be most valuable and indicating whether an experimental design would be required. We also discuss how this type of analysis can also be used to design experimental research efficiently (identifying optimal sample size and optimal sample allocation) based on the marginal cost and marginal benefit of sample information. Value-of-information analysis can provide a measure of the expected payoff from proposed research, which can be used to set priorities in research and development. It can also inform an efficient regulatory framework for new healthcare technologies: an analysis of the value of information would define when a claim for a new technology should be deemed substantiated and when evidence should be considered competent and reliable when it is not cost-effective to gather any more information.

Cost-effectiveness of pravastatin therapy for survivors of myocardial infarction with average cholesterol levels.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of pravastatin therapy in survivors of myocardial infarction with average cholesterol levels. METHODS: We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis based on actual clinical, cost, and health-related quality-of-life data from the Cholesterol and Recurrent Events (CARE) trial. Survival and recurrent coronary heart disease events were modeled from trial data in Markov models, with the use of different assumptions regarding the long-term benefit of therapy. RESULTS: Pravastatin therapy increased quality-adjusted life expectancy at an incremental cost of $16,000 to $32,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. In subgroup analyses, the cost-effectiveness of pravastatin therapy was more favorable for patients >60 years of age and for patients with pretreatment low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels >125 mg/dL. Results were sensitive to the cost of pravastatin and to assumptions about long-term survival benefits from pravastatin therapy. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of pravastatin therapy in survivors of myocardial infarction with average cholesterol levels compares favorably with other interventions.

Use of genotypic resistance testing to guide hiv therapy: clinical impact and cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Genotypic sequencing for drug-resistant strains of HIV can guide the choice of antiretroviral therapy. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of genotypic resistance testing for patients acquiring drug resistance through failed treatment (secondary resistance) and those infected with resistant virus (primary resistance). DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis with an HIV simulation model incorporating CD4 cell count and HIV RNA level as predictors of disease progression. DATA SOURCES: Published randomized trials and data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, the national AIDS Cost and Services Utilization Survey, the Red Book, and an institutional cost-accounting system. TARGET POPULATION: HIV-infected patients in the United States with baseline CD4 counts of 0.250 x 10(9) cells/L. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Societal. INTERVENTIONS: Genotypic resistance testing and clinical judgment, compared with clinical judgment alone, in two contexts: after initial treatment failure (secondary resistance testing) and before initiation of antiretroviral therapy (primary resistance testing). OUTCOME MEASURES: Life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, and cost-effectiveness in dollars per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Secondary resistance testing increased life expectancy by 3 months, at a cost of $17 900 per QALY gained. The cost-effectiveness of primary resistance testing was $22 300 per QALY gained with a 20% prevalence of primary resistance but increased to $69 000 per QALY gained with 4% prevalence. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: The cost-effectiveness ratio for secondary resistance testing remained under $25 000 per QALY gained, even when effectiveness and cost of testing and antiretroviral therapy, quality-of-life weights, and discount rate were varied. CONCLUSIONS: Genotypic antiretroviral resistance testing following antiretroviral failure is cost-effective. Primary resistance testing also seems to be reasonably cost-effective and will become more so as the prevalence of primary resistance increases.

Preevaluation of clinical trial data: the case of preemptive cytomegalovirus therapy in patients with human immunodeficiency virus.

We developed a mathematical simulation model to anticipate outcomes from an upcoming trial of targeted, preemptive cytomegalovirus (CMV) therapy in high-risk, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients identified by means of CMV polymerase chain reaction screening. We estimated the costs and consequences of CMV prophylaxis in patients with CD4(+) counts < or =100 cells/microL under various assumptions regarding disease progression, complication rates, drug effects, and costs. Without CMV preemptive therapy, lifetime costs average $44,600 with expected duration of survival of 19.16 quality-adjusted life-months and 213 CMV cases per 1000 patients. Targeted preemptive therapy with orally administered valganciclovir increases costs and duration of survival to $46,900 and 19.63 quality-adjusted life-months, respectively. CMV cases decrease to 174 per 1000 patients. The cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained is $59,000. This result compares favorably with other strategies in end-stage HIV disease but hinges on valganciclovir cost and efficacy assumptions and the absence of minimally effective salvage antiretroviral therapy for HIV. The upcoming trial should resolve the clinical uncertainty surrounding some of these assumptions.

The cost effectiveness of combination antiretroviral therapy for HIV disease.

BACKGROUND: Combination antiretroviral therapy with a combination of three or more drugs has become the standard of care for patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in the United States. We estimated the clinical benefits and cost effectiveness of three-drug antiretroviral regimens. METHODS: We developed a mathematical simulation model of HIV disease, using the CD4 cell count and HIV RNA level as predictors of the progression of disease. Outcome measures included life expectancy, life expectancy adjusted for the quality of life, lifetime direct medical costs, and cost effectiveness in dollars per quality-adjusted year of life gained. Clinical data were derived from major clinical trials, including the AIDS Clinical Trials Group 320 Study. Data on costs were based on the national AIDS Cost and Services Utilization Survey, with drug costs obtained from the Red Book. RESULTS: For patients similar to those in the AIDS Clinical Trials Group 320 Study (mean CD4 cell count, 87 per cubic millimeter), life expectancy adjusted for the quality of life increased from 1.53 to 2.91 years, and per-person lifetime costs increased from $45,460 to $77,300 with three-drug therapy as compared with no therapy. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted year of life gained, as compared with no therapy, was $23,000. On the basis of additional data from other major studies, the cost-effectiveness ratio for three-drug therapy ranged from $13,000 to $23,000 per quality-adjusted year of life gained. The initial CD4 cell count and drug costs were the most important determinants of costs, clinical benefits, and cost effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of HIV infection with a combination of three antiretroviral drugs is a cost-effective use of resources.

Effectiveness of chemotherapy for advanced lung cancer in the elderly: instrumental variable and propensity analysis.

PURPOSE: To compare the effectiveness of chemotherapy given to elderly patients in routine practice for stage IV non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with the efficacy observed in randomized trials. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used instrumental variable analysis (IVA) and propensity scores (PS) to simulate the conditions of a randomized trial in a retrospective cohort of patients over age 65 from the Survival, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) tumor registry. Geographic variation in chemotherapy use served as the instrument for the IVA analysis, and propensity scores were calculated with a logistic model based on patient disease and sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: Among 6,232 elderly patients, the instrumental variable estimate indicated an increase in median survival of 33 days and an improvement in 1-year survival of 9% attributable to chemotherapy. In a Cox regression model, chemotherapy administration was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.76 to 0.85). When survival was analyzed separately within propensity score quintiles, the hazard ratios were all similar, ranging from 0.78 to 0.85. These results are comparable with those of a large meta-analysis, which found a hazard ratio of 0.87 in the subgroup of patients over age 65. CONCLUSION: Chemotherapy for stage IV NSCLC seems to have effectiveness for elderly patients and those with comorbid conditions that is similar to the efficacy seen in randomized trials containing mostly younger, highly selected patients. All suitable patients should be given the opportunity to consider palliative chemotherapy for metastatic NSCLC.

Health and economic benefits of increased beta-blocker use following myocardial infarction.

CONTEXT: beta-blockers are underused in patients who have myocardial infarction (MI), despite the proven efficacy of these agents. New evidence indicates that beta-blockers can have benefit in patients with conditions that have been considered relative contraindications. Understanding the consequences of underuse of beta-blockers is important because of the implications for current policy debates over quality-of-care measures and Medicare prescription drug coverage. OBJECTIVE: To examine the potential health and economic impact of increased use of beta-blockers in patients who have had MI. DESIGN AND SETTING: We used the Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model, a computer-simulation Markov model of CHD in the US population, to estimate the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of increased beta-blocker use from current to target levels among survivors of MI aged 35 to 84 years. Simulations included 1 cohort of MI survivors in 2000 followed up for 20 years and 20 successive annual cohorts of all first-MI survivors in 2000-2020. Mortality and morbidity from CHD were derived from published meta-analyses and recent studies. This analysis used a societal perspective. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevented MIs, CHD mortality, life-years gained, and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained in 2000-2020. RESULTS: Initiating beta-blocker use for all MI survivors except those with absolute contraindications in 2000 and continuing treatment for 20 years would result in 4300 fewer CHD deaths, 3500 MIs prevented, and 45,000 life-years gained compared with current use. The incremental cost per QALY gained would be $4500. If this increase in beta-blocker use were implemented in all first-MI survivors annually over 20 years, beta-blockers would save $18 million and result in 72,000 fewer CHD deaths, 62,000 MIs prevented, and 447,000 life-years gained. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the cost-effectiveness of beta-blocker therapy would always be less than $11,000 per QALY gained, even under unfavorable assumptions, and may even be cost saving. Restricting beta-blockers only to ideal patients (those without absolute or relative contraindications) would reduce the epidemiological impact of beta-blocker therapy by about 60%. CONCLUSIONS: Our simulation indicates that increased use of beta-blockers after MI would lead to impressive gains in health and would be potentially cost saving. JAMA. 2000;284:2748-2754.

A comparison of HUI2 and HUI3 utility scores in Alzheimer's disease.

PURPOSE: The Health Utilities Index (HUI) is a generic, multiattribute, preference-based health-status classification system. The HUI Mark 3 (HUI3) differs from the earlier HUI2 by modifying attributes and allowing more flexibility for capturing high levels of impairment. The authors compared HUI2 and HUI3 scores of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and caregivers, and contrasted results of a cost-effectiveness analysis of new drugs for AD using the two systems. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study of 679 AD patient/caregiver pairs, stratified by patient's disease stage (questionable/mild/moderate/severe/profound/terminal) and setting (community/assisted living/nursing home), caregivers completed the combined HUI2/HUI3 questionnaire as proxy respondents for patients and for themselves. RESULTS: Mean (SD) global utility scores for patients were lower on the HUI3 (0.22[0.26]) than on the HUI2 (0.53 [0.21]). Patient HUI3 utility scores ranged from 0.47(0.24) for questionable AD to -0.23 (0.08) for terminal AD, compared with a range of 0.73 (0.15) to 0.14 (0.07) for the HUI2. Among the 203 patients in the severe, profound, and terminal stages, 96 (48%) had negative global HUI3 utility scores, while none had a negative HUI2 score. The utility scores for caregivers were similar on the HUI3 (0.87 [0.14]) and HUI2 (0.87 [0.11]). Cost-effectiveness analysis of a new medication to treat AD showed somewhat more favorable results using the HUI3. CONCLUSIONS: The HUI2 and HUI3 discriminate well across AD stages. Compared with the HUI2, the HUI3 yields lower global utility scores for patients with AD, and more scores for states judged worse than dead. The HUI3 may yield substantially different results from the HUI2, particularly for persons who have serious cognitive impairments such as AD.

The FDA's regulation of health economic information.

Section 114 of the Food and Drug Administration Modernization Act of 1997 was intended to increase the flow of health economic information from pharmaceutical manufacturers to managed care decisionmakers. But the legislation raises a host of complex questions and has provoked diverse opinions from inside and outside the pharmaceutical industry. Moreover, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has yet to issue interpretative guidance on the subject. The challenge in implementing Section 114 lies in developing a policy that improves health economic information exchange while protecting consumers from misleading claims and preserving incentives for manufacturers to conduct rigorous studies.