Mathematically aggregating experts' predictions of possible futures.

Structured protocols offer a transparent and systematic way to elicit and combine/aggregate, probabilistic predictions from multiple experts. These judgements can be aggregated behaviourally or mathematically to derive a final group prediction. Mathematical rules (e.g., weighted linear combinations of judgments) provide an objective approach to aggregation. The quality of this aggregation can be defined in terms of accuracy, calibration and informativeness. These measures can be used to compare different aggregation approaches and help decide on which aggregation produces the "best" final prediction. When experts' performance can be scored on similar questions ahead of time, these scores can be translated into performance-based weights, and a performance-based weighted aggregation can then be used. When this is not possible though, several other aggregation methods, informed by measurable proxies for good performance, can be formulated and compared. Here, we develop a suite of aggregation methods, informed by previous experience and the available literature. We differentially weight our experts' estimates by measures of reasoning, engagement, openness to changing their mind, informativeness, prior knowledge, and extremity, asymmetry or granularity of estimates. Next, we investigate the relative performance of these aggregation methods using three datasets. The main goal of this research is to explore how measures of knowledge and behaviour of individuals can be leveraged to produce a better performing combined group judgment. Although the accuracy, calibration, and informativeness of the majority of methods are very similar, a couple of the aggregation methods consistently distinguish themselves as among the best or worst. Moreover, the majority of methods outperform the usual benchmarks provided by the simple average or the median of estimates.

Key Matrix Proteins Within the Pancreatic Islet Basement Membrane Are Differentially Digested During Human Islet Isolation.

Clinical islet transplantation achieves insulin independence in selected patients, yet current methods for extracting islets from their surrounding pancreatic matrix are suboptimal. The islet basement membrane (BM) influences islet function and survival and is a critical marker of islet integrity following rodent islet isolation. No studies have investigated the impact of islet isolation on BM integrity in human islets, which have a unique duplex structure. To address this, samples were taken from 27 clinical human islet isolations (donor age 41-59, BMI 26-38, cold ischemic time < 10 h). Collagen IV, pan-laminin, perlecan and laminin-α5 in the islet BM were significantly digested by enzyme treatment. In isolated islets, laminin-α5 (found in both layers of the duplex BM) and perlecan were lost entirely, with no restoration evident during culture. Collagen IV and pan-laminin were present in the disorganized BM of isolated islets, yet a significant reduction in pan-laminin was seen during the initial 24 h culture period. Islet cytotoxicity increased during culture. Therefore, the human islet BM is substantially disrupted during the islet isolation procedure. Islet function and survival may be compromised as a consequence of an incomplete islet BM, which has implications for islet survival and transplanted graft longevity.

Immunohistochemical analysis of the relationship between islet cell proliferation and the production of the enteroviral capsid protein, VP1, in the islets of patients with recent-onset type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The enteroviral capsid protein, VP1, was recently shown to be present in some beta cells in more than 60% of patients with recent-onset type 1 diabetes but in very few age-matched controls. The rate of proliferation of islet cells was also markedly increased in the type 1 diabetic patients. As it has been suggested that enteroviruses replicate most efficiently in proliferating cells, we have investigated whether VP1 is preferentially present in proliferating beta cells in type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Combined immunoperoxidase and immunofluorescence staining was used to record the presence of enteroviral VP1, insulin and Ki67 in the islets of recent-onset type 1 diabetic patients. RESULTS: From a total of 1,175 islets, 359 (30.5%) contained insulin. VP1-producing endocrine cells were found in 72 islets (6.1% of total), all of which retained insulin. Ki67(+) endocrine cells were present in 52 (4.4%) islets, with 44 (84.6%) of these being insulin-positive. Overall, 28 of 1,175 (2.4%) islets contained both Ki67(+) cells and VP1(+) cells. Dual positivity of these markers accounted for 38.9% of the total VP1(+) islets and 53.8% of the total Ki67(+) islets. No individual islet cells were dual-positive for Ki67 and VP1. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Ki67(+) cells were frequently observed in islets that also contained VP1(+) cells, suggesting that the factors facilitating viral replication may also drive islet cell proliferation. However, in an individual cell, VP1 production does not require concurrent beta cell proliferation.

Evidence of increased islet cell proliferation in patients with recent-onset type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: In adults, the rate of beta cell replication is normally very low, but recent evidence suggests that it may increase during insulitis. We therefore studied tissue from donors with recent-onset type 1 diabetes to establish whether islet cell proliferation is increased during the disease process. METHODS: Paraffin-embedded pancreatic sections from ten donors with recent-onset type 1 diabetes and a range of relevant controls were stained by immunohistochemical techniques with antibodies against the proliferation markers Ki67 and minichromosome maintenance protein-2 (MCM-2). A combination staining technique involving immunoperoxidase and immunofluorescence methods was developed to quantify the numbers of alpha and beta cells with Ki67-positive nuclei and to investigate the relationship between insulitis and islet cell proliferation. RESULTS: In non-diabetic control donors, only 1.1 +/- 0.3% (mean +/- SEM) of islets contained one or more Ki67(+) islet cells, whereas this proportion was increased markedly in recent-onset type 1 diabetes (10.88 +/- 2.5%; p < 0.005). An equivalent increase in Ki67(+) staining occurred in alpha and beta cells and was correlated positively with the presence of insulitis. A significant increase in the labelling of islet cells from type 1 diabetic donors was also seen when MCM-2 staining was employed. Increased islet cell proliferation was not evident in three donors with longer duration type 1 diabetes or in ten type 2 diabetic donors. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Alpha and beta cells undergo a marked increase in proliferation during the progression of type 1 diabetes in humans. The results imply that islet cell proliferation is re-initiated in response to the autoimmune attack associated with type 1 diabetes.

The prevalence of enteroviral capsid protein vp1 immunostaining in pancreatic islets in human type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Evidence that the beta cells of human patients with type 1 diabetes can be infected with enterovirus is accumulating, but it remains unclear whether such infections occur at high frequency and are important in the disease process. We have now assessed the prevalence of enteroviral capsid protein vp1 (vp1) staining in a large cohort of autopsy pancreases of recent-onset type 1 diabetic patients and a range of controls. METHODS: Serial sections of paraffin-embedded pancreatic autopsy samples from 72 recent-onset type 1 diabetes patients and up to 161 controls were immunostained for insulin, glucagon, vp1, double-stranded RNA activated protein kinase R (PKR) and MHC class I. RESULTS: vp1-immunopositive cells were detected in multiple islets of 44 out of 72 young recent-onset type 1 diabetic patients, compared with a total of only three islets in three out of 50 neonatal and paediatric normal controls. vp1 staining was restricted to insulin-containing beta cells. Among the control pancreases, vp1 immunopositivity was also observed in some islets from ten out of 25 type 2 diabetic patients. A strong correlation was established between islet cell vp1 positivity and PKR production in insulin-containing islets of both type 1 and type 2 diabetic patients, consistent with a persistent viral infection of the islets. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Immunoreactive vp1 is commonly found in the islets of recent-onset type 1 diabetes patients, but only rarely in normal paediatric controls. vp1 immunostaining was also observed in some islets of type 2 diabetes patients, suggesting that the phenomenon is not restricted to type 1 diabetes patients.

Analysis of islet inflammation in human type 1 diabetes.

The immunopathology of type 1 diabetes (T1D) has proved difficult to study in man because of the limited availability of appropriate samples, but we now report a detailed study charting the evolution of insulitis in human T1D. Pancreas samples removed post-mortem from 29 patients (mean age 11.7 years) with recent-onset T1D were analysed by immunohistochemistry. The cell types constituting the inflammatory infiltrate within islets (insulitis) were determined in parallel with islet insulin content. CD8(+) cytotoxic T cells were the most abundant population during insulitis. Macrophages (CD68(+)) were also present during both early and later insulitis, although in fewer numbers. CD20(+) cells were present in only small numbers in early insulitis but were recruited to islets as beta cell death progressed. CD138(+) plasma cells were infrequent at all stages of insulitis. CD4(+) cells were present in the islet infiltrate in all patients but were less abundant than CD8(+) or CD68(+) cells. Forkhead box protein P3(+) regulatory T cells were detected in the islets of only a single patient. Natural killer cells were detected rarely, even in heavily inflamed islets. The results suggest a defined sequence of immune cell recruitment in human T1D. They imply that both CD8(+) cytotoxic cells and macrophages may contribute to beta cell death during early insulitis. CD20(+) cells are recruited in greatest numbers during late insulitis, suggesting an increasing role for these cells as insulitis develops. Natural killer cells and forkhead box protein P3(+) T cells do not appear to be required for beta cell death.

Assessing conversational disability.

In spite of current interest in conversational disability, and the growing number of children who are being diagnosed as exhibiting this disorder, there are few satisfactory procedures that can be used to assess their conversation. In the following paper, data from the naturally occurring conversations of two children, who were identified as having difficulties in participating in conversation, are presented. The data were scanned for the following conversational skills: securing the attention of the addressee before speaking, initiating new topics of conversation effectively, using the grammatical forms that are most frequently associated with particular linguistic functions, filling response slots effectively, maintaining cohesion within the discourse, and taking steps to repair mishearings or misunderstandings. This kind of assessment, based on the principles of conversational analysis, provided an objective appraisal of the conversational skills of the children, and also highlighted potential areas for therapeutic intervention. Many of the conversational behaviours exhibited by the two subjects corresponded with those that have been observed in very young children who are developing language normally. It is suggested that the subjects studied here presented with a severe delay in their conversational development rather than a disorder.

The antimicrosporidial activity of albendazole.

The antimicrosporidial activity of albendazole was tested on Nosema bombycis in vitro in Spodoptera frugiperda cells and in vivo in Heliocoverpa zea larvae and pupae. Significant reductions in the percentage of infected S. frugiperda cells were obtained using a concentration of 5.3 micrograms/ml albendazole in tissue culture medium but recrudescence occurred after the drug was withdrawn from the cultures. Significant reductions in the number of spores harvested from 6th-instar larvae or pupae were obtained when doses of 0.2 to 4.0 mg were incorporated into the diet but, with the lower doses, some resurgence of infection occurred in pupae after cessation of drug intake. Established infections were almost eliminated from 6th-instar larvae and pupae after consumption of 2 or 4 mg albendazole and infections were not established at all when 4 mg was consumed concurrently with the infective spores. Even at the highest dose albendazole had no deleterious effect on the growth and viability of H. zea. Clumped chromatin in the nuclei of meronts, revealed by electron microscopy, reflected the selective anti-tubulin activity of albendazole and there was massive disorganization of sporogonic development.

Evidence for widespread occurrence of antibodies to Encephalitozoon cuniculi (Microspora) in man provided by ELISA and other serological tests.

The enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to survey human sera for antibodies to Encephalitozoon cuniculi using spores obtained from in vitro cultures as antigen. Sera were obtained from patients with tropical diseases, neurological and renal disorders, patients who were HIV positive and those who had been tested for HIV but found to be negative. Sera from inhabitants of the village of Jali, The Gambia and from healthy blood donors were also examined. Numerous sera from all groups except the blood donors gave positive ELISA reactions at dilutions of 1:400. On titration, those with titres of 1:400 were reclassified as negative. Antibody titres of 1:800 and above were considered to be indicative of past or present infections with E. cuniculi. Many of these ELISA seropositives were also positive by IFAT or PAP. When examined by Western blotting of SDS-PAGE protein profiles of E. cuniculi spores, sera from many patients who had a tropical association reacted with the characteristic profiles shown by known positive mouse and rabbit sera. Others in the tropical group showed antibody binding to some but not all of the immunodominant polypeptides and yet others were negative in spite of their reactivity in the ELISA, IFAT or PAP test. Less agreement between ELISA and Western blotting results was obtained with the other groups of patients, although reactivity with one or more of the major polypeptide bands was sometimes seen. Serum from one blood donor, examined by ELISA and Western blotting, was positive. Differences in the methods of antigen preparation and of epitopes recognized by individuals may account for different reactivities in the tests. It is concluded that infections of E. cuniculi are common in the tropics and that reactivations of these infections might be a hazard to AIDS patients.

Radiotracer studies on ion-selective membranes based on poly(vinyl chloride) matrices.

Radiotracer studies with (45)Ca, (89)Sr and (133)Ba have provided evidence that the permeation of magnesium, strontium and barium ions through PVC membranes containing Orion 92-20-02 liquid ion-exchanger is inhibited by their low affinity for the liquid ion-exchanger sites. Experiments with (7)Be indicate a strong affinity of the membrane for beryllium ions with corresponding inhibition of permeation. When acid is present in the solution on one side of the membrane, preferential permeation by protons may lead to transport of ions against their concentration gradient in order to maintain the balance of charge.

Radiotracer studies on calcium ion-selective electrode membranes based on poly(vinyl chloride) matrices.

Radiotracer studies with (45)Ca and (36)Cl demonstrate that PVC matrix membranes containing Orion 92-20-02 liquid calcium ion-exchanger are permselective to counter-cations. Diffusion coefficients are quoted for the migration of (45)Ca between pairs of calcium solutions and are discussed in terms of solution concentration, membrane thickness and concentration level of sensor in the membrane. Migration of calcium ions from calcium chloride solution to a Group (II) metal chloride solution through a PVC membrane containing calcium liquid ion-exchanger is discussed in terms of solvent extraction and electrode selectivity coefficient parameters. Thus, magnesium, strontium and barium ions appear to inhibit migration through the membrane by their low affinity for the membrane liquid ion-exchanger sites, while the inhibition by beryllium ions is attributed to site blockage by the strong affinity of dialkylphosphate sites for beryllium.