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Objective: To analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer and estimate its age-period-cohort effect in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2022. Methods: The Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer and calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) based on the data on thyroid cancer from 2012 to 2022. The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the age-effect, time-effect and cohort-effect of thyroid cancer risk in the population aged over 20 years. Results: From 2012 to 2022, the incidence of thyroid cancer in Shandong province showed a significant upward trend, with an AAPC of 21.68% (95%CI: 19.14%-24.27%, P<0.001). The incidence of females was higher than that of males, and the incidence of urban areas was higher than that of rural areas. The trend of thyroid cancer mortality was relatively stable with an AAPC of -3.04% (95%CI:-8.81%-3.09%, P=0.323). The age effect of incidence increased with age before 60 years old and decreased with age after 60 years old. The incidence peaked in the age group of 55-59. The period effect increased with time. The cohort effect showed that the cohort born before 1957 had a downward trend over time, while the cohort born after 1957 had an upward trend. Conclusion: The incidence of thyroid cancer in Shandong shows a rising trend from 2012 to 2022. Age is an important factor affecting the risk of thyroid cancer. The mortality of thyroid cancer remains stable.
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Masculino , Femenino , Humanos , Adulto , Persona de Mediana Edad , Incidencia , Población Rural , Riesgo , Población Urbana , Neoplasias de la Tiroides/epidemiología , China/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Objective: To analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer and estimate its age-period-cohort effect in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2022. Methods: The Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer and calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) based on the data on thyroid cancer from 2012 to 2022. The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the age-effect, time-effect and cohort-effect of thyroid cancer risk in the population aged over 20 years. Results: From 2012 to 2022, the incidence of thyroid cancer in Shandong province showed a significant upward trend, with an AAPC of 21.68% (95%CI: 19.14%-24.27%, P<0.001). The incidence of females was higher than that of males, and the incidence of urban areas was higher than that of rural areas. The trend of thyroid cancer mortality was relatively stable with an AAPC of -3.04% (95%CI:-8.81%-3.09%, P=0.323). The age effect of incidence increased with age before 60 years old and decreased with age after 60 years old. The incidence peaked in the age group of 55-59. The period effect increased with time. The cohort effect showed that the cohort born before 1957 had a downward trend over time, while the cohort born after 1957 had an upward trend. Conclusion: The incidence of thyroid cancer in Shandong shows a rising trend from 2012 to 2022. Age is an important factor affecting the risk of thyroid cancer. The mortality of thyroid cancer remains stable.
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Masculino , Femenino , Humanos , Adulto , Persona de Mediana Edad , Incidencia , Población Rural , Riesgo , Población Urbana , Neoplasias de la Tiroides/epidemiología , China/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
The mortality of female breast cancer in Shandong Province has increased since the 1970. The differential decomposition analysis found that the slight decline in the crude mortality of breast cancer among women was entirely due to non-demographic factors during the 1970-1990, and the significant increase in the crude mortality was due to a combination of demographic and non-demographic factors since the 1990. The contribution rate of demographic factor has gradually increased from 53.5% in 2004-2005 to 59.5% in 2011-2013, while that of non-demographic factor has decreased from 46.5% to 40.5%. The women aged 45-64 years old were the major population of female breast cancer deaths, accounting for 40%-60% of total breast cancer deaths in different times, and then the mortality in female aged 55-64 years old increased rapidly, with increases of 52.12%, 115.19% and 29.01% in 2011-2013 over the 1970-1974, 1990-1992 and 2004-2005, respectively (Z=-7.342,P<0.001). Compared with 1970-1974, the age-standardized mortality rate of rural women increased by 41.86% in 2011-2013 (Z=-17.933, P<0.001), and that of urban women increased by 18.62% in 2011-2013 (Z=-25.642, P<0.001). The age-standardized mortality rate of breast cancer in urban women was higher than that in rural women in different times (all P<0.05). The spatial scan analysis found that eastern Shandong Province was found to be a sustained high-risk area for death, and other high-risk areas were transferred from north to southwest of Shandong between 1970 and 2013.
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Femenino , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Neoplasias de la Mama/epidemiología , Población Rural , Análisis EspacialRESUMEN
Objective To determine the major health related risk factors and provide evidence for policy-making,using health burden analysis on selected factors among general population from Shandong province.Methods Based on data derived from the Third Death of Cause Sampling Survey in Shandong. Years of life lcrat(YLLs),yearS Iived with disability(YLDs)and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs) were calculated according to the GBD ethodology.Deaths and DALYs attributed to the selected risk factors were than estimated together with the PAF data from GBD 2001 study.The indirect method was employed to estimate the YLDs.Results 5i.09%of the total dearlls and 31.83%of the total DALYs from the Shandong population were resulted from the 19 selected risk factors.High blood pre.ure,smoking,low fruit and vegetable intake,aleohol consumption,indoor smoke from solid fuels,high cholesterol,urban air pollution,physical inactivity,overweight and obesity and unsafe injections in health care settings were identified as the top 10 risk faetors for mortality which together caused 50.21%of the total deaths.Alcohol use,smoking,high blood pressure,Low fruit and vegetable intake,indoor smokc from solid fuels,overweight and obesity,high cholesterol,physical inactivity,urban air pollution and iron-deficiency anemia were proved as the top 10 risk factors related to disease burden and were responsible for 29.04%of the total DALYs.Conclusion Alcohol use.smoking and high blood pressure were determined as the major risk factors which influencing the health of residents in Shandong.The mortality and burden of disease could be reduced significantly if these major factors were effectively under control.
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Objective To determine stage-specific and average disability weights (DWs) of malignant neoplasm and provide support and evidence for study on burden of cancer and policy development in Shandong province. Methods Health status of each cancer patient identified during the cancer prevalence survey in Shandong, 2007 was investigated. In line with the GBD methodology in estimating DWs, the disability extent of every case was classified and evaluated according to the Six-class Disability Classification version and then the stage-specific weights and average DWs with their 95 % confidence intervals were calculated, using SAS software. Results A total of 11 757 cancer cases were investigated and evaluated. DWs of specific stage of therapy, remission, metastasis and terminal of all cancers were 0.310, 0.218, 0.450 and 0.653 respectively. The average DW of all cancers was 0.317(95 % CI:0.312-0.321). Weights of different stage and different cancer varied significantly, while no significant differences were found between males and females. DWs were found higher (>0.4) for liver cancer, bone cancer, lymphoma and pancreas cancer. Lower DWs (<0.3) were found for breast cancer, cervix uteri, corpus uteri, ovarian cancer, larynx cancer, mouth and oropharynx cancer. Conclusion Stage-specific and average DWs for various cancers were estimated based on a large sample size survey. The average DWs of 0.317 for all cancers indicated that 1/3 healthy year lost for each survived life year of them. The difference of DWs between different cancer and stage provide scientific evidence for cancer prevention strategy development.
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<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To explore the risk factors of hypertension and risk population for adults aged > or = 25 in the mid-western rural areas of Shandong province and to provide evidence for development of intervention measure.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Subjects aged > or = 25 were selected by multi-stage stratified random sampling method. All participants were interviewed with a standard questionnaire and physically examined on height, weight, waist circumference, blood pressure and fasting plasma glucose (FPG). Classification tree analysis was employed to determine the risk factors of hypertension and high risk populations related to it.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The major risk factors of hypertension would include age, abdominal obesity, overweight or obesity, family history and high blood sugar. The major populations at high risk would include populations as: a) being elderly, b) at middle-age but with: high blood sugar or with abdominal obesity/overweight, or with family history, c) people at middle-age but with family history and abdominal obesity. Through classification tree analysis, sensitivity, specificity and overall correct rates were 71.87%, 66.38% and 68.79%, respectively on 'learning sample' while 70.70%, 65.84% and 67.97% respectively on 'testing sample'.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Efforts on both weight and blood sugar reduction were common prevention measures for general population. Different kinds of prevention and control measures should be taken according to different risk factors existed in the targeted high-risk population of hypertension. Community-based prevention and control for hypertension measures should be integrated when targeting the population at high risk.</p>