A baseline for source localisation using the inverse modelling tool FREAR.

A global network of monitoring stations is set up that can measure tiny concentrations of airborne radioactivity as part of the verification regime of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. If Treaty-relevant detections are made, inverse atmospheric transport modelling is one of the methods that can be used to determine the source of the radioactivity. In order to facilitate the testing of novel developments in inverse modelling, two sets of test cases are constructed using real-world 133Xe detections associated with routine releases from a medical isotope production facility. One set consists of 24 cases with 5 days of observations in each case, and another set consists of 8 cases with 15 days of observations in each case. A series of inverse modelling techniques and several sensitivity experiments are applied to determine the (known) location of the medical isotope production facility. Metrics are proposed to quantify the quality of the source localisation. Finally, it is illustrated how the sets of test cases can be used to test novel developments in inverse modelling algorithms.

Characterisation of Xe-133 background at the IMS stations in the East Asian region: Insights based on known sources and atmospheric transport modelling.

Radioxenon can be produced with a high fission yield during a nuclear explosion, making it an important tracer to demonstrate the nuclear origin of an explosion. For this reason, it is continuously monitored by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) as part of the verification regime. Radioxenon is emitted by civil nuclear facilities, like nuclear power plants (NPPs) or isotope production facilities (IPFs), providing significant but variable contribution to the noble gas background. The discrimination between CTBT-relevant radioxenon detections and the background is then a challenging task. This work aims at estimating the radioxenon background at 8 East Asian noble gas stations of the International Monitoring Systems (IMS) (out of 26 certified and 14 others foreseen) based on known sources and atmospheric transport modelling (ATM). For the purpose of this study, the transportable system in Mutsu, Japan, was also included. The results demonstrate a predominant contribution of NPPs to the radioxenon background at most of the East Asian IMS stations, especially during summertime. In autumn, as a result of large-scale atmospheric circulation, the contribution of remote IPFs starts to dominate. In the summertime, up to 80% of the Xe-133 detections at a station may be explained by contributions from NPPs. The detections even rise to 100% in some specific cases. At some stations under investigation in this study, a transition from NPP to IPF domination is observed in September and continues during the autumn season. It has also been shown that, for some stations, simulated concentrations above the detection limit may include observable contributions from up to 19 different sources per daily sample; at the same time the sample being sensitive to 80 or more possible sources of radioxenon. This indicates that the accumulation of many weak sources can lead to a measurable result in a single air sample. This might also explain observations at very remote stations. Another important conclusion is that, despite limited knowledge about release patterns of NPPs, the agreement between simulated and measured values was good in many cases. Availability of IMS measurements allowed for validation of simulations. This comparison revealed that approximately 76% of simulated values were underestimated. Based on the paired t-test, a 95% confidence interval for the true mean difference between measurements and simulations was constructed. It was estimated that for data dominated by NPPs contribution (i.e. NPPs contribution exceeds 70%), the overall uncertainty of simulated results lies between 0.07 and 0.10 mBq/m3. For data dominated by IPFs contribution (i.e. IPFs contribution exceeds 70%), the uncertainty for the simulations is in the range between 0.03 and 0.12 mBq/m3.

Third international challenge to model the medium- to long-range transport of radioxenon to four Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring stations.

In 2015 and 2016, atmospheric transport modeling challenges were conducted in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification, however, with a more limited scope with respect to emission inventories, simulation period and number of relevant samples (i.e., those above the Minimum Detectable Concentration (MDC)) involved. Therefore, a more comprehensive atmospheric transport modeling challenge was organized in 2019. Stack release data of Xe-133 were provided by the Institut National des Radioéléments/IRE (Belgium) and the Canadian Nuclear Laboratories/CNL (Canada) and accounted for in the simulations over a three (mandatory) or six (optional) months period. Best estimate emissions of additional facilities (radiopharmaceutical production and nuclear research facilities, commercial reactors or relevant research reactors) of the Northern Hemisphere were included as well. Model results were compared with observed atmospheric activity concentrations at four International Monitoring System (IMS) stations located in Europe and North America with overall considerable influence of IRE and/or CNL emissions for evaluation of the participants' runs. Participants were prompted to work with controlled and harmonized model set-ups to make runs more comparable, but also to increase diversity. It was found that using the stack emissions of IRE and CNL with daily resolution does not lead to better results than disaggregating annual emissions of these two facilities taken from the literature if an overall score for all stations covering all valid observed samples is considered. A moderate benefit of roughly 10% is visible in statistical scores for samples influenced by IRE and/or CNL to at least 50% and there can be considerable benefit for individual samples. Effects of transport errors, not properly characterized remaining emitters and long IMS sampling times (12-24 h) undoubtedly are in contrast to and reduce the benefit of high-quality IRE and CNL stack data. Complementary best estimates for remaining emitters push the scores up by 18% compared to just considering IRE and CNL emissions alone. Despite the efforts undertaken the full multi-model ensemble built is highly redundant. An ensemble based on a few arbitrary runs is sufficient to model the Xe-133 background at the stations investigated. The effective ensemble size is below five. An optimized ensemble at each station has on average slightly higher skill compared to the full ensemble. However, the improvement (maximum of 20% and minimum of 3% in RMSE) in skill is likely being too small for being exploited for an independent period.

Uncertainty quantification of atmospheric transport and dispersion modelling using ensembles for CTBT verification applications.

Airborne concentrations of specific radioactive xenon isotopes (referred to as "radioxenon") are monitored globally as part of the verification regime of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, as these could be the signatures of a nuclear explosion. However, civilian nuclear facilities emit a regulated amount of radioxenon that can interfere with the very sensitive monitoring network. One approach to deal with this civilian background of radioxenon for Treaty verification purposes, is to explicitly simulate the expected radioxenon concentration from civilian sources at monitoring stations using atmospheric transport modelling. However, atmospheric transport modelling is prone to uncertainty, and the absence of an uncertainty quantification can limit its use for detection screening. In this paper, several ensembles are assessed that could provide an atmospheric transport modelling uncertainty quantification. These ensembles are validated with radioxenon observations, and recommendations are given for atmospheric transport modelling uncertainty quantification. Finally, the added value of an ensemble for detection screening is illustrated.

Next-generation particulate monitoring.

Operated by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation, the International Monitoring System is used by almost 200 nations to monitor for nuclear weapons tests. The IMS is still under development, and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty has not yet entered into force, however the radionuclide component has proved instrumental in radically changing both nuclear verification science and researchers' understanding of the dynamic global radiation background. After more than 20 years, the network is mostly complete, however the technology utilised for the particulate monitoring component remains practically the same, despite a number of laboratories developing coincidence systems that can offer orders of magnitude improvements in detection sensitivity and reliability. This paper describes the status of the technology, and the advantages of implementing this within the International Monitoring System. Furthermore, the performance of a prototype system developed by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation is presented, and the implications of introducing this technology considered.

Correlation between the latitudinal profile of the 7Be air concentration and the Hadley cell extent in the Southern Hemisphere.

The cosmogenic radionuclide 7Be is one of the best tracers for aerosol transport since its half-life of 53 days is in the time scale of many atmospheric circulation phenomena. In this work, we analyze a 12-years-long daily time-series for the airborne 7Be concentration for nine air filtering stations in the Southern Hemisphere or close to it. The observed latitudinal distribution of 7Be concentration, with its maximum at the southern subtropical high-pressure belt, is similar to the one in the Northern Hemisphere. A good time correlation was found between the 7°-shift of the 7Be concentration latitudinal distribution and the seasonal displacement of the extent of the Hadley cell. This is consistent with tropopause folding events, mostly occurring in spring, being the main contribution for the injection of stratospheric 7Be into the descending branch of the Hadley cell.

Classification of radioxenon spectra with deep learning algorithm.

In this study, we propose for the first time a model of classification for Beta-Gamma coincidence radioxenon spectra using a deep learning approach through the convolution neural network (CNN) technique. We utilize the entire spectrum of actual data from a noble gas system in Charlottesville (USX75 station) between 2012 and 2019. This study shows that the deep learning categorization can be done as an important pre-screening method without directly involving critical limits and abnormal thresholds. Our results demonstrate that the proposed approach of combining nuclear engineering and deep learning is a promising tool for assisting experts in accelerating and optimizing the review process of clean background and CTBT-relevant samples with high classification average accuracies of 92% and 98%, respectively.

An investigation on the 133Xe global network coverage for the International Monitoring System of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.

The radionuclides part of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) global network of International Monitoring System (IMS) is based on the measurement of particles and radioactive noble gases. Forty radionuclide stations are going to be equipped with radioxenon measurement components to monitor the nuclear explosion signatures around the world. Global coverage of the noble gas IMS stations has been investigated using atmospheric transport modelling. Two years of worldwide release for a hypothetical 1-kt underground nuclear explosion and detection of 133Xe in the IMS radioxenon station locations are considered. The present and completed status were supposed as two different scenarios to estimate the daily coverage of the network. The calculated quantities were evaluated corresponding to the whole latitude/longitude grid in image-base and numerical patterns. Although the fluctuation of daily coverage is varying in time, the cumulative minimum amounts were indicated that North America has stable high coverage in the present arrangement. Moreover, after the completion of the network, this aspect will be expanded to the middle part of the Northern Hemisphere as well as the west region of the Southern Hemisphere. Finally exploring the cumulative maximum daily coverage is denoted that adding the non-operational stations to the current network has a great influence on the 20 S - 90 N latitudes to 0-180 W longitudes and about 50% effect on the network coverage (NC) of the north of Europe, South Atlantic, and Oceania. However, it has almost no impact on the values of the limited area around the middle east part of the Pacific Ocean.

Evaluating the added value of multi-input atmospheric transport ensemble modeling for applications of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty organization (CTBTO).

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) runs to date operationally an atmospheric transport modeling chain in backward mode based on operational deterministic European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS) and on National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) input data. Meanwhile, ensemble dispersion modeling is becoming more and more widespread due to the ever increasing computational power and storage capacities. The potential benefit of this approach for current and possible future CTBTO applications was investigated using data from the ECMWF-Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). Five different test cases - among which are the ETEX-I experiment and the Fukushima accident - were run in backward or forward mode and - in the light of a future operational application - special emphasis was put on the performance of an arbitrarily selected 10- versus the full 51-member ensemble. For those test cases run in backward mode and based on a puff release it became evident that Possible Source Regions (PSRs) can be meaningfully reduced in size compared to results based solely on the deterministic run by applying minimum and probability of exceedance ensemble metrics. It was further demonstrated that a given puff release of 4E10 Bq of Se-75 can be reproduced within the meteorological uncertainty range [1.9E9 Bq,1.7E13 Bq] including a probability for not exceeding an assumed upper limit source term using simple scaling of a measurement with the corresponding ensemble metrics of backward fields. For the test cases run in forward mode it was found that the control run as well as 10- and 51-member medians all exhibit similar performance in time series evaluation. Maximum rank difference adds up to less than 10% with reference to possible rank values [0,4]. The maximum difference in the Brier score for both ensembles is less than 3%. The main added value of the ensemble lies in producing meteorologically induced concentration uncertainties and thus explaining observed measurements at specific sites. Depending on the specific test case and on the ensemble size between 27 and 74% of samples all lie within concentration ranges derived from the different meteorological fields used. In the future uncertainty information per sample could be used in a full source term inversion to account for the meteorological uncertainty in a proper way. It can be concluded that a 10-member meteorological ensemble is good enough to already benefit from useful ensemble properties. Meteorological uncertainty to a large degree is covered by the 10-member subset because forecast uncertainty is largely suppressed due to concatenating analyses and short term forecasts, as required in the operational CTBTO procedure, on which this study focuses. Besides, members from different analyses times are on average unrelated. It was recommended to Working Group B of CTBTO to implement the ensemble system software in the near future.

Comparison of near-background concentrations of Argon-37 and Xenon-133 in the atmosphere.

Radioisotopes of the noble gases xenon and argon can be important indicators of underground nuclear explosions. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) includes monitoring capabilities to identify potential nuclear explosions conducted in violation of the CTBT. This monitoring currently focuses on measurement of the xenon isotopes 131mXe, 133Xe, 133mXe, and 135Xe. However, it is predicted that within 100 days of an underground nuclear explosion (UNE) 37Ar would be released to the atmosphere at higher concentrations than xenon and with a higher signal to background ratio, depending on the radioxenon background levels. Therefore, inclusion of 37Ar measurement capabilities at atmospheric International Monitoring System (IMS) stations may represent an improvement in the capability to detect a nuclear explosion. At an IMS station location, an understanding of the expected range of background 37Ar activity concentrations is critical to determining what levels would constitute an elevated concentration. This work describes our analysis of atmospheric samples for 37Ar to evaluate the range of background concentrations. Samples were collected at multiple locations withing the United States, with approximately half coming from a sampler co-located with an IMS xenon monitoring station (RN75). The range of 37Ar concentrations measured in atmospheric air samples was relatively narrow; for samples considered detectable, the minimum and maximum measured concentrations were 0.56 and 2.3 mBq/m3, respectively. Comparison of 37Ar and 133Xe concentrations measured at the IMS station indicated some correlation between the measured concentrations. The results presented here demonstrate the capability to detect background concentrations of 37Ar in atmospheric air and provide a basis for potential implementation of 37Ar monitoring at IMS stations.