Statistical evaluation of adding multiple risk factors improves Framingham stroke risk score.

BACKGROUND: Framingham Stroke Risk Score (FSRS) is the most well-regarded risk appraisal tools for evaluating an individual's absolute risk on stroke onset. However, several widely accepted risk factors for stroke were not included in the original Framingham model. This study proposed a new model which combines an existing risk models with new risk factors using synthesis analysis, and applied it to the longitudinal Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) data set. METHODS: Risk factors in original prediction models and new risk factors in proposed model had been discussed. Three measures, like discrimination, calibration and reclassification, were used to evaluate the performance of the original Framingham model and new risk prediction model. RESULTS: Modified C-statistics, Hosmer-Lemeshow Test and classless NRI, class NRI were the statistical indices which, respectively, denoted the performance of discrimination, calibration and reclassification for evaluating the newly developed risk prediction model on stroke onset. It showed that the NEW-STROKE (new stroke risk score prediction model) model had higher modified C-statistics, smaller Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square values after recalibration than original FSRS model, and the classless NRI and class NRI of the NEW-STROKE model over the original FSRS model were all significantly positive in overall group. CONCLUSION: The NEW-STROKE integrated with seven literature-derived risk factors outperformed the original FSRS model in predicting the risk score of stroke. It illustrated that seven literature-derived risk factors contributed significantly to stroke risk prediction.

Assessment of cardiovascular risk in Tunisia: applying the Framingham risk score to national survey data.

OBJECTIVE: This paper aims to assess the socioeconomic determinants of a high 10 year cardiovascular risk in Tunisia. SETTING: We used a national population based cross sectional survey conducted in 2005 in Tunisia comprising 7780 subjects. We applied the non-laboratory version of the Framingham equation to estimate the 10 year cardiovascular risk. PARTICIPANTS: 8007 participants, aged 35-74 years, were included in the sample but effective exclusion of individuals with cardiovascular diseases and cancer resulted in 7780 subjects (3326 men and 4454 women) included in the analysis. RESULTS: Mean age was 48.7 years. Women accounted for 50.5% of participants. According to the Framingham equation, 18.1% (17.25-18.9%) of the study population had a high risk (≥20% within 10 years). The gender difference was striking and statistically significant: 27.2% (25.7-28.7%) of men had a high risk, threefold higher than women (9.7%; 8.8-10.5%). A higher 10 year global cardiovascular risk was associated with social disadvantage in men and women; thus illiterate and divorced individuals, and adults without a professional activity had a significantly higher risk of developing a cardiovascular event in 10 years. Illiterate men were at higher risk than those with secondary and higher education (OR=7.01; 5.49 to 9.14). The risk in illiterate women was more elevated (OR=13.57; 7.58 to 24.31). Those living in an urban area had a higher risk (OR=1.45 (1.19 to 1.76) in men and OR=1.71 (1.35 to 2.18) in women). CONCLUSIONS: The 10 year global cardiovascular risk in the Tunisian population is already substantially high, affecting almost a third of men and 1 in 10 women, and concentrated in those more socially disadvantaged.

Framingham Equation Model Overestimates Risk of Ischemic Heart Disease in Korean Men and Women / 한국역학회지

BACKGROUND: The prediction of the absolute risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD) is commonly based on the risk prediction equations, originated from the Framingham Heart Study. METHOD: Framingham equation model was applied to participants from 2001 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHNES) to estimate the 5 year risk of IHD among Koreans ranging from 30 to 74 year-olds. The estimated risks were compared to the incidence and admission rates from two statistical reports among Koreans. Five year admission rate was estimated by the annual report from National Health Insurance Corporation (NHIC). RESULTS: The average ages (standard deviation) were 34.31(27.23) year-old for KNHNES and 48.26(12.87) year-old for Framingham population used in this study. The risk of IHD predicted by the Framingham equation model substantially exceeded the risks actually reported in Korea. Five-year predicted risks by Framingham equation model were 4.86% for men and 1.93% for women; whereas from incidence data in Korea, five-year risks for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) were for 0.47% for men and 0.18% for women. These AMI incidence was similar to the admission rate (0.34 for men and 0.15 for women) estimated by NHIC. Also, 5-year admission rate of IHD were 1.16 for men and 0.78 for women. The magnitude of risk overestimation by Framingham mode is approximately at least 150 to 320%. CONCLUSION: Korean guidelines for the management for high risk group of IHD need to develop and correct for overestimation to avoid inflation of costs in primary prevention.