Prediction of body weight of Curraleiro Pé-Duro cattle based on morphometric measurements.

Cattle weight development is highly correlated with some body measurements. Based on the relationship between morphometric measurements and body mass, our aim was to develop regression equations to estimate the body weight of Curraleiro Pé-Duro (CPD) cattle to be used in farms that lack access to weighting scales. Data from 1023 animals from four farms on withers height (WH), body length (BL), body score (BS), heart girth (HG), permanent teeth (PT), scrotal perimeter (SP), and live weight were used. The animals were classified into five categories depending on age and/or sex: newborns (NB), calves, weaned animals, cows, and bulls. The best models are GLM with Gamma, Gamma, inverse Gaussian, Gaussian, and Gamma distributions for NB, calves, weaned animals, cows, and bulls, respectively. Predictive modeling for bulls was the best performing overall, with a correlation of 0.97 between the estimated by the model and the obtained with a weighting scale. For NB, calves, weaned animals, and cows, the correlation (r) was 0.85, 0.90, 0.95, and 0.87, respectively. The evaluated models are adequate to be used as a technical solution to estimate weight in a cattle production system.

Efecto de factores sociodemográficos en la mortalidad del COVID-19 en Costa Rica: un enfoque geográfico

Introducción: La enfermedad por coronavirus (COVID-19) se ha extendido entre la población de todo el país y ha tenido un gran impacto a nivel mundial. Sin embargo, existen diferencias geográficas importantes en la mortalidad de COVID-19 entre las diferentes regiones del mundo y en Costa Rica. Objetivo: Explorar el efecto de algunos de los factores sociodemográficos en la mortalidad de COVID-19 en pequeñas divisiones geográficas o cantones de Costa Rica. Métodos: Usamos registros oficiales y aplicamos un modelo de regresión clásica de Poisson y un modelo de regresión ponderada geográficamente. Resultados: Obtuvimos un criterio de información de Akaike (AIC) más bajo con la regresión ponderada (927.1 en la regresión de Poison versus 358.4 en la regresión ponderada). Los cantones con un mayor riesgo de mortalidad por COVID-19 tuvo una población más densa; bienestar material más alto; menor proporción de cobertura de salud y están ubicadas en el área del Pacífico de Costa Rica. Conclusiones: Una estrategia de intervención de COVID-19 específica debería concentrarse en áreas de la costa pacífica con poblaciones más densas, mayor bienestar material y menor población por unidad de salud.

Introduction: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread among the population of Costa Rica and has had a great global impact. However, there are important geographic differences in mortality from COVID-19 among world regions and within Costa Rica. Objective: To explore the effect of some sociodemographic factors on COVID-19 mortality in the small geographic divisions or cantons of Costa Rica. Methods: We used official records and applied a classical epidemiological Poisson regression model and a geographically weighted regression model. Results: We obtained a lower Akaike Information Criterion with the weighted regression (927.1 in Poisson regression versus 358.4 in weighted regression). The cantons with higher risk of mortality from COVID-19 had a denser population; higher material well-being; less population by health service units and are located near the Pacific coast. Conclusions: A specific COVID-19 intervention strategy should concentrate on Pacific coast areas with denser population, higher material well-being and less population by health service units.

Association between coffee consumption with serum lipid profile in ELSA-Brasil study: a metabolomic approach.

PURPOSE: This study evaluated the association between coffee consumption and serum lipid profile in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study on baseline data from participants of the cohort ELSA-Brasil. Only participants of São Paulo Research Center who underwent a nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy examination of lipid profile were included (N = 4736). Coffee intake was categorized into four categories (cups/day, in reference cup size of 50 mL, which is the household measure adopted in Brazil): never/almost never, ≤ 1, 1-3, and > 3. Serum lipid profile [i.e., Total Cholesterol (TC), Total Triglycerides (TG), Very Low-Density Lipoprotein-cholesterol (VLDL-c), Low-Density Lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-c), High-Density Lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-c), Triglyceride-rich Lipoprotein Particles (TRLP) and subfractions particles] was analyzed. To estimate the effect of coffee consumption on serum lipid profile, multivariate Generalized Linear Models were performed. RESULTS: Compared to participants who never or almost never drink coffee, individuals who consumed more than 3 cups/day showed an increase in concentrations of TC (ß: 4.13; 95% CI 0.81, 7.45), TG (ß: 9.53; 95% CI 1.65, 17.42), VLDL-c (ß: 1.90; 95% CI 0.38, 3.42), TRLP (ß: 8.42; 95% CI 1.24, 15.60), and Very Small-TRLP and Medium-TRLP subfractions (ß: 7.36; 95% CI 0.21, 14.51; ß: 2.53; 95% CI 0.89, 4.16, respectively), but not with HDL-c and LDL-c. Among individuals with low (≤ 1 cup/day) and moderate (1-3 cups/day) coffee consumption, no significant associations with lipids was observed. CONCLUSION: High coffee consumption (more than 3 cups per day) was associated with an increase in serum lipids, namely TC, TG, VLDL-c, and TRL particles, highlighting the importance of a moderate consumption of this beverage.

The influence of abiotic and biotic variables on the patent parasitemias of Trypanosoma spp. in Thrichomys fosteri (Rodentia: Echimyidae) in the southern Pantanal.

Parasitism is a dynamic ecological phenomenon that is constantly influenced by the environment and intrinsic factors of the host. We aimed to evaluate the influence of vegetation, environmental temperature, reproductive conditions, sex, and body condition (BC) on the detection of Trypanosoma spp. in the blood of Thrichomys fosteri in the Pantanal region, an enzootic area for trypanosomiasis. Whole blood was collected from the tip of the tail, and nPCR was performed for Trypanosoma spp. detection from the DNA extracted from the resultant blood clot. Statistical analyses were performed using generalized linear models. Our results showed that there is a greater probability of detection of Trypanosoma spp. in the bloodstream of animals with the highest BC values in periods with mild temperatures. Since T. fosteri is an abundant and common prey for carnivores, even in periods with low temperatures and consequent decrease in the reproduction and activities of the blood-sucking arthropod vectors, the maintenance of Trypanosoma spp. in the studied area would be guaranteed via predation (trophic network) of T. fosteri individuals with good BC and patent parasitemia. Furthermore, T. fosteri, which displays Trypanosoma spp. in the bloodstream, would be reproducing adequately because we found no influence between the reproductive condition and the detection of Trypanosoma spp. in T. fosteri. The caviomorph rodent T. fostei is an important species for the maintenance of Trypanosoma spp. in the Pantanal biome.

Multivariate Generalized Linear Models for Twin and Family Data.

Multivariate twin and family studies are one of the most important tools to assess diseases inheritance as well as to study their genetic and environment interrelationship. The multivariate analysis of twin and family data is in general based on structural equation modelling or linear mixed models that essentially decomposes sources of covariation as originally suggested by  Fisher. In this paper, we propose a flexible and unified statistical modelling framework for analysing multivariate Gaussian and non-Gaussian twin and family data. The non-normality is taken into account by actually modelling the mean and variance relationship, while the covariance structure is modelled by means of a linear covariance model including the option to model the dispersion components as functions of known covariates in a regression model fashion. The marginal specification of our models allows us to extend classic models and biometric indices such as the bivariate heritability, genetic, environmental and phenotypic correlations to non-Gaussian data. We illustrate the proposed models through simulation studies and six data analyses and provide computational implementation in R through the package mglm4twin.

Prevalências de doenças crônicas e acesso aos serviços de saúde no Brasil: evidências de três inquéritos domiciliares / Prevalence of chronic diseases and access to health services in Brazil: evidence of three household surveys

Resumo As Doenças Crônicas Não Transmissíveis (DCNT) são as principais causas de morte no mundo, impactando fortemente sobre populações mais vulneráveis. O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar as mudanças nas prevalências dessas doenças, nas condições de saúde, acesso e utilização de serviços de saúde no Brasil, entre 2008 e 2019. Como ferramenta analítica, foram utilizados testes de diferenças de proporções e modelos lineares generalizados, considerando amostragem complexa dos inquéritos da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD) de 2008, e da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde (PNS), nos anos de 2013 e 2019, para testar mudanças no tempo das prevalências e estimar razões de prevalência, ajustadas por variáveis sociodemográficas. Houve aumento das prevalências de depressão, câncer, diabetes, distúrbios neuropsiquiátricos, problemas pulmonares crônicos e problemas osteomusculares. Houve redução de artrite reumatoide, insuficiência renal crônica e doenças do aparelho circulatório. Entre os brasileiros com pelo menos uma DCNT verificou-se aumento da cobertura da Estratégia de Saúde da Família ao longo do tempo, no entanto verificou-se redução do atendimento médico em tempo oportuno e obtenção de medicamentos prescritos gratuitamente.

Abstract Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading causes of death globally, impacting heavily on the most vulnerable populations. This study aimed to analyze changes in the prevalence of these diseases, health conditions, access, and health services in Brazil between 2008 and 2019. Tests of differences and generalized linear models were used as analytical tools, considering complex sampling from the PNAD 2008, PNS 2013, and PNS 2019 surveys, to test temporal changes in the prevalence and the prevalence ratio estimates, adjusted by sociodemographic variables. An increase in the prevalence of Depression, Diabetes, Cancers, Neuropsychiatric Disorders, Chronic Pulmonary problems, and Musculoskeletal problems was observed. A decline in rheumatoid arthritis, chronic renal failure, and diseases of the circulatory system was identified. Among Brazilians with at least one NCD, an increase in coverage by the family health strategy over time was observed. However, there was a reduction in timely medical care and obtaining of free prescription drugs.

Generalized symmetrical partial linear model.

In this work, we propose a new model called generalized symmetrical partial linear model, based on the theory of generalized linear models and symmetrical distributions. In our model the response variable follows a symmetrical distribution such a normal, Student-t, power exponential, among others. Following the context of generalized linear models we consider replacing the traditional linear predictors by the more general predictors in whose case one covariate is related with the response variable in a non-parametric fashion, that we do not specified the parametric function. As an example, we could imagine a regression model in which the intercept term is believed to vary in time or geographical location. The backfitting algorithm is used for estimating the parameters of the proposed model. We perform a simulation study for assessing the behavior of the penalized maximum likelihood estimators. We use the quantile residuals for checking the assumption of the model. Finally, we analyzed real data set related with pH rivers in Ireland.

Timeliness of vesicular disease notification system in Brazilian foot-and-mouth disease surveillance programme.

Animal health surveillance programmes should be reliable and informative to ensure their effective implementation. As such, the regular assessment of those aiming to demonstrate the absence of disease, as well as the ability to detect outbreaks on time, is of vital importance. Several criteria make it possible to assess the performance of surveillance systems, including timeliness, which represents the speed between steps in a surveillance system. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the variability in the timeliness, within and between states, of the surveillance programme of the Brazilian Veterinary Services (BVS) for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), for the notification of vesicular disease. A total of 14 years (2004-2017) of data relating to vesicular syndromes from the Brazilian Continental Information and Surveillance System (SivCont) were included. A categorical variable was created with four classes to group the notified vesicular processes in the SivCont, according to two criteria, the similarity of the symptoms of the diseases reported with FMD and aetiology (viral, bacterial, fungal and non-infectious). The three timeliness values (TL-1, TL-2 and TL-3) related to different portions of the FMD surveillance system were analysed as a response in a generalized linear model in which the states of Brazil were the explanatory variables. The analyses were performed separately for each notification class (FMD, vesicular stomatitis, similar symptoms and similar non-infectious symptoms) and included comparisons within and between states. The study results provide an understanding and evaluation of the timeliness of the Brazilian FMD surveillance system, thereby providing a base of knowledge from which involved agents and decision-makers can evaluate BVS and reinforce surveillance measures in the states with poorer timeliness than permitted.

A new class of regression model for a bounded response with application in the study of the incidence rate of colorectal cancer.

Response variables in medical sciences are often bounded, e.g. proportions, rates or fractions of incidence of some disease. In this work, we are interested to study if some characteristics of the population, e.g. sex and race which can explain the incidence rate of colorectal cancer cases. To accommodate such responses, we propose a new class of regression models for bounded response by considering a new distribution in the open unit interval which includes a new parameter to make a more flexible distribution. The proposal is to obtain compound power normal distribution as a base distribution with a quantile transformation of another family of distributions with the same support and then is to study some properties of the new family. In addition, the new family is extended to regression models as an alternative to the regression model with a unit interval response. We also present inferential procedures based on the Bayesian methodology, specifically a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the Bayesian estimates of parameters. An application to real data to illustrate the use of the new family is considered.

Environmental factors driving the dominance of the harmful bloom-forming cyanobacteria Microcystis and Aphanocapsa in a tropical water supply reservoir.

Harmful cyanobacterial blooms in reservoirs have become a serious global issue for environmental health. However, dominance among different toxic cyanobacteria genera remains poorly understood, especially in tropical areas. We evaluated the influence of environmental factors, including total phosphorus, dissolved aluminum, water level, and precipitation on the change of the dominant genus from Microcystis to Aphanocapsa, in a hypereutrophic tropical reservoir, using 443 water samples over six years of field monitoring by applying generalized linear models (GLM). The results pointed out the prevalence of longer hydrologic retention time leading to enhanced water stability, and nutrients' accumulation into the hypolimnetic zones of the reservoir may have favored the ecophysiological advantages for the picocyanobacteria Aphanocapsa, which reached densities greater than 1 million/ml. In addition, this article also suggests that physical-chemical remediation methods applied for immobilizing phosphorus in the sediments of the reservoir may be low effective in limiting cyanobacterial growth. These findings are not only meaningful to the understanding of the dynamics of cyanobacterial genera but also to improve the management of eutrophic reservoirs in tropical regions. PRACTITIONER POINTS: We assessed cyanobacterial dominance changes based on 6-year field monitoring. First article addressing the dominance of Aphanocapsa spp. in a tropical reservoir. Species of Aphanocapsa responded better to hydrological changes in the reservoir. The use of remediators was accompanied by an increase in cyanobacteria biomass.

Double Poisson-Tweedie Regression Models.

In this paper, we further extend the recently proposed Poisson-Tweedie regression models to include a linear predictor for the dispersion as well as for the expectation of the count response variable. The family of the considered models is specified using only second-moments assumptions, where the variance of the count response has the form µ+ϕµp $\mu + \phi \mu^p$, where µ is the expectation, ϕ and p are the dispersion and power parameters, respectively. Parameter estimations are carried out using an estimating function approach obtained by combining the quasi-score and Pearson estimating functions. The performance of the fitting algorithm is investigated through simulation studies. The results showed that our estimating function approach provides consistent estimators for both mean and dispersion parameters. The class of models is motivated by a data set concerning CD4 counting in HIV-positive pregnant women assisted in a public hospital in Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil. Specifically, we investigate the effects of a set of covariates in both expectation and dispersion structures. Our results showed that women living out of the capital Curitiba, with viral load equal or larger than 1000 copies and with previous diagnostic of HIV infection, present lower levels of CD4 cell count. Furthermore, we detected that the time to initiate the antiretroviral therapy decreases the data dispersion. The data set and R code are available as supplementary materials.

The parasitic isopod Mothocya nana drives dietary shifts and poorer condition of Brazilian silversides Atherinella brasiliensis.

Cymothoids are ectoparasites that may attach to various parts of the fish for molting and reproductive purposes, thus increasing the energetic costs of the host. This study investigated the influence of the parasitic isopod Mothocya nana on the physiological condition and diet of adult Brazilian silversides Atherinella brasiliensis at a sandy beach in southeastern Brazil. We collected 268 A. brasiliensis individuals, of which 230 fish were non-parasitized (mean ± SE total weight [TW] = 16.92 ± 0.38 g; total length [TL] = 127 ± 0.88 mm) and 38 were parasitized by up to 2 isopods (TW = 15.89 ± 0.79 g; TL = 126 ± 1.96 mm). Parasitic prevalence (P) and intensity (I) reached highest values in June 2015 (P = 20.88%; I = 1.31) and were slightly higher on males (P = 17.39%; I = 1.33) than on females (P = 13.07%; I = 1.27). Parasitized fish revealed poorer condition than non-parasitized ones, among which male hosts were especially burdened by M. nana's attachment. The condition factor, the eviscerated condition factor and the fullness index each showed a decreasing trend according to the parasite's development and offspring weight (i.e. increase in egg and larval weight). Parasitized and non-parasitized Brazilian silversides fed mainly on microcrustaceans, but the first group showed reduced phytoplankton intake and was associated with fewer trophic categories in comparison to non-parasitized fish. These dietary shifts revealed correlation with the poorer physiological condition reported for infected A. brasiliensis, whose decreased feeding efficiency is likely related to potential impairment of the filter-feeding mechanism and/or altered behaviour due to pressure atrophy and the increased energetic costs imposed by M. nana's development.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of Lutzomyia longipalpis and macro-habitat characterization using satellite images in a leishmaniasis-endemic city in Argentina.

The spatiotemporal population dynamics of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) (Diptera: Psychodidae) were evaluated in a city in Argentina in which visceral leishmaniasis is endemic. Over 14 sampling sessions, 5244 specimens of five species of Phlebotominae (Diptera: Psychodidae) were captured, of which 2458 (46.87%) specimens were L. longipalpis. Generalized linear models were constructed to evaluate the associations between L. longipalpis abundance and explanatory variables derived from satellite images. The spatial variable 'stratum' and the temporal variable 'season' were also included in the models. Three variables were found to have significant associations: the normalized difference vegetation index; land surface temperature, and low urban coverage. The last two of these were associated with L. longipalpis abundance only during summer and winter, respectively. This variation between seasons supports the development of models that include temporal variables because models of distributions of the abundance of a species may show different critical variables according to the climatic period of the year. Abundance decreased gradually towards the downtown area, which suggests that L. longipalpis responds to a meta-population structure, in which rural-periurban source populations that persist over time may colonize adjacent areas. This information allows for a spatiotemporal stratification of risk, which provides public health authorities with a valuable tool to help optimize prevention measures against visceral leishmaniasis.

Organic contamination as a driver of structural changes of hydroid's assemblages of the coral reefs near to Havana Harbour, Cuba.

Hydroid assemblage's responses to organic contamination were evaluated using sedimentary sterols as explanatory variables. At seven coral reef sites in the Havana west coast, hydroids were collected along three 10 m × 1 m, 10 m deep transects. Five sterols were analysed, i.e., coprostanol, an indicator of faecal contamination, and cholestanol, cholesterol, stigmasterol and brassicasterol, indicators of biogenic organic matter inputs. The sampling sites were classified by level of contamination. A total of 65 species comprised the hydroid assemblages. Hydroids community abundance and richness decreased in the contaminated sites. Coprostanol had the highest relative importance for these variables and also for Plumularia floridana and Clytia gracilis abundances. Obelia dichotoma and Halecium bermudense were relatively abundant in the contaminated sites. The results indicate that faecal contamination negatively affected the hydroid assemblages, highlighting the importance of integrated biological and chemical indicators to evaluate the environmental conditions of the Havana coral reef.

Factors associated with hard tick (Acari: Ixodidae) parasitism in medium-sized mammals in the Atlantic Rainforest region of Argentina.

Associations with environmental and host parameters were assessed to describe tick parasitism patterns in two medium-sized mammals of the Atlantic rainforest region of Argentina. Ticks found on 93 specimens of Nasua nasua and 26 specimens of Didelphis aurita captured at six sites in the Iguazú National Park were collected. Generalized linear models were constructed to explain the presence and abundance of ticks and the most appropriate ones were selected after stepwise simplification. The season, site and host body mass variables were important to explain the abundance of Amblyomma coelebs nymphs, while site was important to describe larval abundance of this species. Season was the most important variable for larvae and nymphs of Haemaphysalis juxtakochi, while Amblyomma brasiliense nymphs were associated with host age. Amblyomma ovale larvae were related to host age, and adult ticks with host sex. The results indicate that these medium-sized mammals are important to support the immature tick stages and that both host and environmental factors may be associated with parasite loads.

No mullet, no gain: cooperation between dolphins and cast net fishermen in southern Brazil

We report on the interaction between common bottlenose dolphins, Tursiops truncatus (Montagu, 1821) and cast net fishermen in southern coast of Brazil. The fishery was monitored in the mouth of the Tramandaí River Estuary to investigate the seasonality of catches and their relationships with a set of variables: presence/absence and number of bottlenose dolphins, fishing area, temperature, salinity, wind and water flow direction in the channel. The mullet, Mugil liza Valenciennes, 1836 is the target species and was the dominant fish in the catches (77% of total catch; 50% in frequency; 0.2 ind. x f-1). The use of GLM models helped to reveal that the number of the bottlenose dolphins, time of year (months) and spatial variation of fishing activity were the main factors explaining the presence and abundance of mullet in the fishermen’s catches. The presences of bottlenose dolphins in the fishing area raise the probability of fishermen catch larger number of mullets with smaller fishing effort. However, the size of the mullet is influenced basically by seasonality. The mullets are the “currency” of bottlenose dolphins and fishermen interaction. There are reasons for concern about the sustainability of the southern Brazilian M. liza stock, once the decrease of this fishing resource can lead this rare and traditional fishery to the extinction.

No mullet, no gain: cooperation between dolphins and cast net fishermen in southern Brazil

We report on the interaction between common bottlenose dolphins, Tursiops truncatus (Montagu, 1821) and cast net fishermen in southern coast of Brazil. The fishery was monitored in the mouth of the Tramandaí River Estuary to investigate the seasonality of catches and their relationships with a set of variables: presence/absence and number of bottlenose dolphins, fishing area, temperature, salinity, wind and water flow direction in the channel. The mullet, Mugil liza Valenciennes, 1836 is the target species and was the dominant fish in the catches (77% of total catch; 50% in frequency; 0.2 ind. x f-1). The use of GLM models helped to reveal that the number of the bottlenose dolphins, time of year (months) and spatial variation of fishing activity were the main factors explaining the presence and abundance of mullet in the fishermens catches. The presences of bottlenose dolphins in the fishing area raise the probability of fishermen catch larger number of mullets with smaller fishing effort. However, the size of the mullet is influenced basically by seasonality. The mullets are the “currency” of bottlenose dolphins and fishermen interaction. There are reasons for concern about the sustainability of the southern Brazilian M. liza stock, once the decrease of this fishing resource can lead this rare and traditional fishery to the extinction.(AU)

Description and quantitative analysis of the dentition of the southern thorny skate Amblyraja doellojuradoi.

A description of the tooth morphology of 234 jaws from the southern thorny skate Amblyraja doellojuradoi in the south-west Atlantic Ocean is given. Seven rows of teeth were selected and length and width of each tooth in these rows were measured. It was found that functional series corresponds to the third teeth and the average width and length of these teeth were compared among jaws, maturity stages, sexes and rows. Generalized linear models were used to determine the subset of measures that most contribute to explain the variability between groups. It was observed that males have longer teeth than females, but the teeth of females are wider. These differences are attributed to reproductive behaviour, in which males bite females to hold them during copulation. This study provides a description of the teeth of A. doellojuradoi, supplying a valuable tool for identification of species. In addition, the establishment of the main variations observed in the dentition, improves the understanding of the species' biology.

Bayesian regression analysis of data with random effects covariates from nonlinear longitudinal measurements.

Joint models for a wide class of response variables and longitudinal measurements consist on a mixed-effects model to fit longitudinal trajectories whose random effects enter as covariates in a generalized linear model for the primary response. They provide a useful way to assess association between these two kinds of data, which in clinical studies are often collected jointly on a series of individuals and may help understanding, for instance, the mechanisms of recovery of a certain disease or the efficacy of a given therapy. When a nonlinear mixed-effects model is used to fit the longitudinal trajectories, the existing estimation strategies based on likelihood approximations have been shown to exhibit some computational efficiency problems (De la Cruz et al., 2011). In this article we consider a Bayesian estimation procedure for the joint model with a nonlinear mixed-effects model for the longitudinal data and a generalized linear model for the primary response. The proposed prior structure allows for the implementation of an MCMC sampler. Moreover, we consider that the errors in the longitudinal model may be correlated. We apply our method to the analysis of hormone levels measured at the early stages of pregnancy that can be used to predict normal versus abnormal pregnancy outcomes. We also conduct a simulation study to assess the importance of modelling correlated errors and quantify the consequences of model misspecification.

Safety performance models for urban intersections in Brazil.

This paper presents a modeling effort for developing safety performance models (SPM) for urban intersections for three major Brazilian cities. The proposed methodology for calibrating SPM has been divided into the following steps: defining the safety study objective, choosing predictive variables and sample size, data acquisition, defining model expression and model parameters and model evaluation. Among the predictive variables explored in the calibration phase were exposure variables (AADT), number of lanes, number of approaches and central median status. SPMs were obtained for three cities: Fortaleza, Belo Horizonte and Brasília. The SPM developed for signalized intersections in Fortaleza and Belo Horizonte had the same structure and the most significant independent variables, which were AADT entering the intersection and number of lanes, and in addition, the coefficient of the best models were in the same range of values. For Brasília, because of the sample size, the signalized and unsignalized intersections were grouped, and the AADT was split in minor and major approaches, which were the most significant variables. This paper also evaluated SPM transferability to other jurisdiction. The SPM for signalized intersections from Fortaleza and Belo Horizonte have been recalibrated (in terms of the Cx) to the city of Porto Alegre. The models were adjusted following the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) calibration procedure and yielded Cx of 0.65 and 2.06 for Fortaleza and Belo Horizonte SPM respectively. This paper showed the experience and future challenges toward the initiatives on development of SPMs in Brazil, that can serve as a guide for other countries that are in the same stage in this subject.