Evaluating TROPOMI and MODIS performance to capture the dynamic of air pollution in São Paulo state: A case study during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Atmospheric pollutant data retrieved through satellite sensors are continually used to assess changes in air quality in the lower atmosphere. During the COVID-19 pandemic, several studies started to use satellite measurements to evaluate changes in air quality in many different regions worldwide. However, although satellite data is continuously validated, it is known that its accuracy may vary between monitored areas, requiring regionalized quality assessments. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate whether satellites could measure changes in the air quality of the state of São Paulo, Brazil, during the COVID-19 outbreak; and to verify the relationship between satellite-based data [Tropospheric NO2 column density and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)] and ground-based concentrations [NO2 and particulate material (PM; coarse: PM10 and fine: PM2.5)]. For this purpose, tropospheric NO2 obtained from the TROPOMI sensor and AOD retrieved from MODIS sensor data by using the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm were compared with concentrations obtained from 50 automatic ground monitoring stations. The results showed low correlations between PM and AOD. For PM10, most stations showed correlations lower than 0.2, which were not significant. The results for PM2.5 were similar, but some stations showed good correlations for specific periods (before or during the COVID-19 outbreak). Satellite-based Tropospheric NO2 proved to be a good predictor for NO2 concentrations at ground level. Considering all stations with NO2 measurements, correlations >0.6 were observed, reaching 0.8 for specific stations and periods. In general, it was observed that regions with a more industrialized profile had the best correlations, in contrast with rural areas. In addition, it was observed about 57% reductions in tropospheric NO2 throughout the state of São Paulo during the COVID-19 outbreak. Variations in air pollutants were linked to the region economic vocation, since there were reductions in industrialized areas (at least 50% of the industrialized areas showed >20% decrease in NO2) and increases in areas with farming and livestock characteristics (about 70% of those areas showed increase in NO2). Our results demonstrate that Tropospheric NO2 column densities can serve as good predictors of NO2 concentrations at ground level. For MAIAC-AOD, a weak relationship was observed, requiring the evaluation of other possible predictors to describe the relationship with PM. Thus, it is concluded that regionalized assessment of satellite data accuracy is essential for assertive estimates on a regional/local level. Good quality information retrieved at specific polluted areas does not assure a worldwide use of remote sensor data.

Retrospective assessment of pregnancy exposure to particulate matter from desert dust on a Caribbean island: could satellite-based aerosol optical thickness be used as an alternative to ground PM10 concentration?

Desert dust transported from the Saharan-Sahel region to the Caribbean Sea is responsible for peak exposures of particulate matter (PM). This study explored the potential added value of satellite aerosol optical thickness (AOT) measurements, compared to the PM concentration at ground level, to retrospectively assess exposure during pregnancy. MAIAC MODIS AOT retrievals in blue band (AOT470) were extracted for the French Guadeloupe archipelago. AOT470 values and PM10 concentrations were averaged over pregnancy for 906 women (2005-2008). Regression modeling was used to examine the AOT470-PM10 relationship during pregnancy and test the association between dust exposure estimates and preterm birth. Moderate agreement was shown between mean AOT470 retrievals and PM10 ground-based measurements during pregnancy (R2 = 0.289). The magnitude of the association between desert dust exposure and preterm birth tended to be lower using the satellite method compared to the monitor method. The latter remains an acceptable trade-off between epidemiological relevance and exposure misclassification, in areas with few monitoring stations and complex topographical/meteorological conditions, such as tropical islands.

Developing an Advanced PM2.5 Exposure Model in Lima, Peru.

It is well recognized that exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) affects health adversely, yet few studies from South America have documented such associations due to the sparsity of PM2.5 measurements. Lima's topography and aging vehicular fleet results in severe air pollution with limited amounts of monitors to effectively quantify PM2.5 levels for epidemiologic studies. We developed an advanced machine learning model to estimate daily PM2.5 concentrations at a 1 km2 spatial resolution in Lima, Peru from 2010 to 2016. We combined aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorological fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), parameters from the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), and land use variables to fit a random forest model against ground measurements from 16 monitoring stations. Overall cross-validation R2 (and root mean square prediction error, RMSE) for the random forest model was 0.70 (5.97 µg/m3). Mean PM2.5 for ground measurements was 24.7 µg/m3 while mean estimated PM2.5 was 24.9 µg/m3 in the cross-validation dataset. The mean difference between ground and predicted measurements was -0.09 µg/m3 (Std.Dev. = 5.97 µg/m3), with 94.5% of observations falling within 2 standard deviations of the difference indicating good agreement between ground measurements and predicted estimates. Surface downwards solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, and AOD were the most important predictors, while percent urbanization, albedo, and cloud fraction were the least important predictors. Comparison of monthly mean measurements between ground and predicted PM2.5 shows good precision and accuracy from our model. Furthermore, mean annual maps of PM2.5 show consistent lower concentrations in the coast and higher concentrations in the mountains, resulting from prevailing coastal winds blown from the Pacific Ocean in the west. Our model allows for construction of long-term historical daily PM2.5 measurements at 1 km2 spatial resolution to support future epidemiological studies.

Vulnerability of Amazonian forests to repeated droughts.

Extreme droughts have been recurrent in the Amazon over the past decades, causing socio-economic and environmental impacts. Here, we investigate the vulnerability of Amazonian forests, both undisturbed and human-modified, to repeated droughts. We defined vulnerability as a measure of (i) exposure, which is the degree to which these ecosystems were exposed to droughts, and (ii) its sensitivity, measured as the degree to which the drought has affected remote sensing-derived forest greenness. The exposure was calculated by assessing the meteorological drought, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the maximum cumulative water deficit (MCWD), which is related to vegetation water stress, from 1981 to 2016. The sensitivity was assessed based on the enhanced vegetation index anomalies (AEVI), derived from the newly available Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction algorithm (MAIAC) product, from 2003 to 2016, which is indicative of forest's photosynthetic capacity. We estimated that 46% of the Brazilian Amazon biome was under severe to extreme drought in 2015/2016 as measured by the SPI, compared with 16% and 8% for the 2009/2010 and 2004/2005 droughts, respectively. The most recent drought (2015/2016) affected the largest area since the drought of 1981. Droughts tend to increase the variance of the photosynthetic capacity of Amazonian forests as based on the minimum and maximum AEVI analysis. However, the area showing a reduction in photosynthetic capacity prevails in the signal, reaching more than 400 000 km2 of forests, four orders of magnitude larger than areas with AEVI enhancement. Moreover, the intensity of the negative AEVI steadily increased from 2005 to 2016. These results indicate that during the analysed period drought impacts were being exacerbated through time. Forests in the twenty-first century are becoming more vulnerable to droughts, with larger areas intensively and negatively responding to water shortage in the region.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Satellite-based view of the aerosol spatial and temporal variability in the Córdoba region (Argentina) using over ten years of high-resolution data.

Space-based observations offer a unique opportunity to investigate the atmosphere and its changes over decadal time scales, particularly in regions lacking in situ and/or ground based observations. In this study, we investigate temporal and spatial variability of atmospheric particulate matter (aerosol) over the urban area of Córdoba (central Argentina) using over ten years (2003-2015) of high-resolution (1 km) satellite-based retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD). This fine resolution is achieved exploiting the capabilities of a recently developed inversion algorithm (Multiangle implementation of atmospheric correction, MAIAC) applied to the MODIS sensor datasets of the NASA-Terra and -Aqua platforms. Results of this investigation show a clear seasonality of AOD over the investigated area. This is found to be shaped by an intricate superposition of aerosol sources, acting over different spatial scales and affecting the region with different yearly cycles. During late winter and spring (August-October), local as well as near- and long-range transported biomass burning (BB) aerosols enhance the Córdoba aerosol load, and AOD levels reach their maximum values (> 0.35 at 0.47µm). The fine AOD spatial resolution allowed to disclose that, in this period, AOD maxima are found in the rural/agricultural area around the city, reaching up to the city boundaries pinpointing that fires of local and near-range origin play a major role in the AOD enhancement. A reverse spatial AOD gradient is found from December to March, the urban area showing AODs 40 to 80% higher than in the city surroundings. In fact, during summer, the columnar aerosol load over the Córdoba region is dominated by local (urban and industrial) sources, likely coupled to secondary processes driven by enhanced radiation and mixing effects within a deeper planetary boundary layer (PBL). With the support of modelled AOD data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA), we further investigated into the chemical nature of AOD. The results suggest that mineral dust is also an important aerosol component in Córdoba, with maximum impact from November to February. The use of a long-term dataset finally allowed a preliminary assessment of AOD trends over the Córdoba region. For those months in which local sources and secondary processes were found to dominate the AOD (December to March), we found a positive AOD trend in the Córdoba outskirts, mainly in the areas with maximum urbanization/population growth over the investigated decade. Conversely, a negative AOD trend (up to -0.1 per decade) is observed all over the rural area of Córdoba during the BB season, this being attributed to a decrease of fires both at the local and the continental scale.

Scaling estimates of vegetation structure in Amazonian tropical forests using multi-angle MODIS observations.

Detailed knowledge of vegetation structure is required for accurate modelling of terrestrial ecosystems, but direct measurements of the three dimensional distribution of canopy elements, for instance from LiDAR, are not widely available. We investigate the potential for modelling vegetation roughness, a key parameter for climatological models, from directional scattering of visible and near-infrared (NIR) reflectance acquired from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We compare our estimates across different tropical forest types to independent measures obtained from: (1) airborne laser scanning (ALS), (2) spaceborne Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS)/ICESat, and (3) the spaceborne SeaWinds/QSCAT. Our results showed linear correlation between MODIS-derived anisotropy to ALS-derived entropy (r2= 0.54, RMSE=0.11), even in high biomass regions. Significant relationships were also obtained between MODIS-derived anisotropy and GLAS-derived entropy (0.52≤ r2≤ 0.61; p<0.05), with similar slopes and offsets found throughout the season, and RMSE between 0.26 and 0.30 (units of entropy). The relationships between the MODIS-derived anisotropy and backscattering measurements (σ0) from SeaWinds/QuikSCAT presented an r2 of 0.59 and a RMSE of 0.11. We conclude that multi-angular MODIS observations are suitable to extrapolate measures of canopy entropy across different forest types, providing additional estimates of vegetation structure in the Amazon.

Vegetation dynamics and rainfall sensitivity of the Amazon.

We show that the vegetation canopy of the Amazon rainforest is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns and that reduction in rainfall since 2000 has diminished vegetation greenness across large parts of Amazonia. Large-scale directional declines in vegetation greenness may indicate decreases in carbon uptake and substantial changes in the energy balance of the Amazon. We use improved estimates of surface reflectance from satellite data to show a close link between reductions in annual precipitation, El Niño southern oscillation events, and photosynthetic activity across tropical and subtropical Amazonia. We report that, since the year 2000, precipitation has declined across 69% of the tropical evergreen forest (5.4 million km(2)) and across 80% of the subtropical grasslands (3.3 million km(2)). These reductions, which coincided with a decline in terrestrial water storage, account for about 55% of a satellite-observed widespread decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). During El Niño events, NDVI was reduced about 16.6% across an area of up to 1.6 million km(2) compared with average conditions. Several global circulation models suggest that a rise in equatorial sea surface temperature and related displacement of the intertropical convergence zone could lead to considerable drying of tropical forests in the 21st century. Our results provide evidence that persistent drying could degrade Amazonian forest canopies, which would have cascading effects on global carbon and climate dynamics.