[Estimation of prevalence of chronic Chagas disease in Brazilian municipalitiesEstimación de la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en los municipios brasileños]. / Estimativa de prevalência de doença de Chagas crônica nos municípios brasileiros.

Objective: The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of chronic Chagas disease (CCD) in Brazil: in the general population, in women, and in women of childbearing age. Methods: A meta-analysis of the literature was conducted to extract data on the prevalence of CCD in municipalities in Brazil in the 2010-2022 period: in the general population, in women, and in women of childbearing age. Municipal-level CCD indicators available in health information systems were selected. Statistical modeling of the data extracted from the meta-analysis (based on data obtained from information systems) was applied to linear, generalized linear, and additive models. Results: The five most appropriate models were selected from a total of 549 models tested to obtain a consensus model (adjusted R2 = 54%). The most important predictor was self-reported CCD in the primary health care information system. Zero prevalence was estimated in 1 792 (32%) of Brazil's 5 570 municipalities; in the remaining 3 778 municipalities, average prevalence of the disease was estimated at 3.25% (± 2.9%). The number of carriers of CCD was estimated for the Brazilian population (~3.7 million), for women (~2.1 million) and for women of childbearing age (~590 000). The disease reproduction rate was calculated at 1.0336. All estimates refer to the 2015-2016 period. Conclusions: The estimated prevalence of CCD, especially among women of childbearing age, highlights the challenge of vertical transmission in Brazilian municipalities. Mathematical projections suggest that these estimates should be included in the national program for the elimination of vertical transmission of Chagas disease.

Objetivo: El objetivo de este estudio fue estimar la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil. Métodos: Se realizó un metanálisis de la bibliografía para extraer datos sobre la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil, en los municipios de Brasil durante el período 2010-2022. Se seleccionaron los indicadores relacionados con esa enfermedad disponibles en los sistemas municipales de información de salud. La modelización estadística de los datos extraídos del metanálisis, en función de los obtenidos de los sistemas de información, se aplicó a modelos lineales, lineales generalizados y aditivos. Resultados: Se seleccionaron los cinco modelos más apropiados de un total de 549 modelos evaluados, para obtener un modelo de consenso (R2 ajustado = 54%). El factor predictor más importante fue el registro de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica autodeclarada en el sistema de información de atención primaria de salud. De los 5570 municipios brasileños, en 1792 (32%) la prevalencia estimada fue nula y en los 3778 restantes la prevalencia media fue del 3,25% (± 2,9%). El número estimado de pacientes con enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil fue de ~3,7 millones, ~2,1 millones y ~590 000, respectivamente. La tasa calculada de reproducción de la enfermedad fue de 1,0336. Todas las estimaciones se refieren al período 2015-2016. Conclusiones: La prevalencia estimada de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica, especialmente en las mujeres en edad fértil, pone de manifiesto el desafío que representa la transmisión vertical en los municipios brasileños. Estas estimaciones están en línea con los patrones de las proyecciones matemáticas, y sugieren la necesidad de incorporarlas al Pacto Nacional para la Eliminación de la Transmisión Vertical de la Enfermedad de Chagas.

An emergency room influx and trauma cases prediction in a Brazilian ophthalmological hospital by an ophthalmologist without code experience / Predição do influxo de atendimentos e casos de trauma em um serviço de urgência oftalmológico brasileiro realizado por um oftalmologista sem experiência em programação

ABSTRACT Purpose: The emergency medical service is a fundamental part of healthcare, albeit crowded emergency rooms lead to delayed and low-quality assistance in actual urgent cases. Machine-learning algorithms can provide a smart and effective estimation of emergency patients' volume, which was previously restricted to artificial intelligence (AI) experts in coding and computer science but is now feasible by anyone without any coding experience through auto machine learning. This study aimed to create a machine-learning model designed by an ophthalmologist without any coding experience using AutoML to predict the influx in the emergency department and trauma cases. Methods: A dataset of 356,611 visits at Hospital da Universidade Federal de São Paulo from January 01, 2014 to December 31, 2019 was included in the model training, which included visits/day and the international classification disease code. The training and prediction were made with the Amazon Forecast by 2 ophthalmologists with no prior coding experience. Results: The forecast period predicted a mean emergency patient volume of 216.27/day in p90, 180.75/day in p50, and 140.35/day in p10, and a mean of 7.42 trauma cases/ day in p90, 3.99/day in p50, and 0.56/day in p10. In January of 2020, there were a total of 6,604 patient visits and a mean of 206.37 patients/day, which is 13.5% less than the p50 prediction. This period involved a total of 199 trauma cases and a mean of 6.21 cases/day, which is 55.77% more traumas than that by the p50 prediction. Conclusions: The development of models was previously restricted to data scientists' experts in coding and computer science, but transfer learning autoML has enabled AI development by any person with no code experience mandatory. This study model showed a close value to the actual 2020 January visits, and the only factors that may have influenced the results between the two approaches are holidays and dataset size. This is the first study to apply AutoML in hospital visits forecast, showing a close prediction of the actual hospital influx.

RESUMO Objetivo: Esse estudo tem como objetivo criar um modelo de Machine Learning por um oftalmologista sem experiência em programação utilizando auto Machine Learning predizendo influxo de pacientes em serviço de emergência e casos de trauma. Métodos: Um dataset de 366,610 visitas em Hospital Universitário da Universidade Federal de São Paulo de 01 de janeiro de 2014 até 31 de dezembro de 2019 foi incluído no treinamento do modelo, incluindo visitas/dia e código internacional de doenças. O treinamento e predição foram realizados com o Amazon Forecast por dois oftalmologistas sem experiência com programação. Resultados: O período de previsão estimou um volume de 206,37 pacientes/dia em p90, 180,75 em p50, 140,35 em p10 e média de 7,42 casos de trauma/dia em p90, 3,99 em p50 e 0,56 em p10. Janeiro de 2020 teve um total de 6.604 pacientes e média de 206,37 pacientes/dia, 13,5% menos do que a predição em p50. O período teve um total de 199 casos de trauma e média de 6,21 casos/dia, 55,77% mais casos do que a predição em p50. Conclusão: O desenvolvimento de modelos era restrito a cientistas de dados com experiencia em programação, porém a transferência de ensino com a tecnologia de auto Machine Learning permite o desenvolvimento de algoritmos por qualquer pessoa sem experiencia em programação. Esse estudo mostra um modelo com valores preditos próximos ao que ocorreram em janeiro de 2020. Fatores que podem ter influenciados no resultado foram feriados e tamanho do banco de dados. Esse é o primeiro estudo que aplicada auto Machine Learning em predição de visitas hospitalares com resultados próximos aos que ocorreram.

Exploring the effect of the structural model of active aging on the self-assessment of quality of life among older people: A cross-sectional and analytical study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Although studies have examined the relationship between variables associated with active aging and quality of life (QoL), no studies have been identified to have investigated the effect of a structural model of active aging on QoL in a representative sample of older people in the community. OBJECTIVE: To measure the domains and facets of QoL in older people and identify the effect of the structural model of active aging on the self-assessment of QoL. DESIGN AND SETTING: This cross-sectional analytical study included 957 older people living in urban areas. Data were collected from households using validated instruments between March and June 2018. Descriptive, confirmatory factor, and structural equation modeling analyses were performed. RESULTS: Most older people self-rated their QoL as good (58.7%), and the highest mean scores were for the social relationships domain (70.12 ± 15.4) and the death and dying facet (75.43 ± 26.7). In contrast, the lowest mean scores were for the physical domains (64.41 ± 17.1) and social participation (67.20 ± 16.2) facets. It was found that active aging explained 50% of the variation in self-assessed QoL and directly and positively affected this outcome (λ = 0.70; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Active aging had a direct and positive effect on the self-assessment of QoL, indicating that the more individuals actively aged, the better the self-assessment of QoL.

Predicting the outcome of death by CALL Score in COVID-19 patients

SUMMARY OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the CALL Score tool in predicting the death outcome in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: A total of 897 patients were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine the association between characteristics of the CALL Score and the occurrence of death. The relationship between CALL Score risk classification and the occurrence of death was also examined. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to identify optimal cutoff points for the CALL Score and the outcome. RESULTS: The study revealed that age>60 years, DHL>500, and lymphocyte count ≤1000 emerged as independent predictors of death. Higher risk classifications of the CALL Score were associated with an increased likelihood of death. The optimal CALL Score cutoff point for predicting the death outcome was 9.5 (≥9.5), with a sensitivity of 70.4%, specificity of 80.3%, and accuracy of 80%. CONCLUSION: The CALL Score showed promising discriminatory ability for death outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Age, DHL level, and lymphocyte count were identified as independent predictors. Further validation and external evaluation are necessary to establish the robustness and generalizability of the CALL Score in diverse clinical settings.

Estimativa de prevalência de doença de Chagas crônica nos municípios brasileiros / Estimation of prevalence of chronic Chagas disease in Brazilian municipalities / Estimación de la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en los municipios brasileños

Resumo Objetivo. Este estudo teve como objetivo estimar a prevalência da doença de Chagas (DC) crônica (DCC) na população brasileira, em mulheres e em mulheres em idade fértil. Métodos. Foi realizada uma metanálise da literatura para extrair dados de prevalência de DCC na população brasileira, em mulheres e em mulheres em idade fértil, em municípios do Brasil, no período 2010-2022. Indicadores relacionados com a DCC disponíveis nos sistemas de informação em saúde foram selecionados em escala municipal. A modelagem estatística dos dados extraídos da metanálise em função daqueles obtidos dos sistemas de informação foi aplicada a modelos lineares, lineares generalizados e aditivos. Resultados. Foram selecionados os cinco modelos mais adequados de um total de 549 modelos testados para obtenção de um modelo de consenso (R2 ajustado = 54%). O preditor mais importante foi o cadastro autorreferido de DCC do sistema de informação da Atenção Primária à Saúde. Dos 5 570 munícipios brasileiros, a prevalência foi estimada como zero em 1 792 (32%); nos 3 778 municípios restantes, a prevalência média da doença foi estimada em 3,25% (± 2,9%). O número de portadores de DCC foi estimado na população brasileira (~3,7 milhões), mulheres (~2,1 milhões) e mulheres em idade fértil (~590 mil). A taxa de reprodução da doença foi calculada em 1,0336. Todas as estimativas se referem ao intervalo 2015-2016. Conclusões. As prevalências estimadas de DCC, especialmente entre mulheres em idade fértil, evidenciam o desafio da transmissão vertical em municípios brasileiros. Estas estimativas são comparadas aos padrões de projeções matemáticas, sugerindo sua incorporação ao Pacto Nacional para a Eliminação da Transmissão Vertical da DC.

ABSTRACT Objective. The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of chronic Chagas disease (CCD) in Brazil: in the general population, in women, and in women of childbearing age. Methods. A meta-analysis of the literature was conducted to extract data on the prevalence of CCD in municipalities in Brazil in the 2010-2022 period: in the general population, in women, and in women of childbearing age. Municipal-level CCD indicators available in health information systems were selected. Statistical modeling of the data extracted from the meta-analysis (based on data obtained from information systems) was applied to linear, generalized linear, and additive models. Results. The five most appropriate models were selected from a total of 549 models tested to obtain a consensus model (adjusted R2 = 54%). The most important predictor was self-reported CCD in the primary health care information system. Zero prevalence was estimated in 1 792 (32%) of Brazil's 5 570 municipalities; in the remaining 3 778 municipalities, average prevalence of the disease was estimated at 3.25% (± 2.9%). The number of carriers of CCD was estimated for the Brazilian population (~3.7 million), for women (~2.1 million) and for women of childbearing age (~590 000). The disease reproduction rate was calculated at 1.0336. All estimates refer to the 2015-2016 period. Conclusions. The estimated prevalence of CCD, especially among women of childbearing age, highlights the challenge of vertical transmission in Brazilian municipalities. Mathematical projections suggest that these estimates should be included in the national program for the elimination of vertical transmission of Chagas disease.

Resumen Objetivo. El objetivo de este estudio fue estimar la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil. Métodos. Se realizó un metanálisis de la bibliografía para extraer datos sobre la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil, en los municipios de Brasil durante el período 2010-2022. Se seleccionaron los indicadores relacionados con esa enfermedad disponibles en los sistemas municipales de información de salud. La modelización estadística de los datos extraídos del metanálisis, en función de los obtenidos de los sistemas de información, se aplicó a modelos lineales, lineales generalizados y aditivos. Resultados. Se seleccionaron los cinco modelos más apropiados de un total de 549 modelos evaluados, para obtener un modelo de consenso (R2 ajustado = 54%). El factor predictor más importante fue el registro de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica autodeclarada en el sistema de información de atención primaria de salud. De los 5570 municipios brasileños, en 1792 (32%) la prevalencia estimada fue nula y en los 3778 restantes la prevalencia media fue del 3,25% (± 2,9%). El número estimado de pacientes con enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil fue de ~3,7 millones, ~2,1 millones y ~590 000, respectivamente. La tasa calculada de reproducción de la enfermedad fue de 1,0336. Todas las estimaciones se refieren al período 2015-2016. Conclusiones. La prevalencia estimada de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica, especialmente en las mujeres en edad fértil, pone de manifiesto el desafío que representa la transmisión vertical en los municipios brasileños. Estas estimaciones están en línea con los patrones de las proyecciones matemáticas, y sugieren la necesidad de incorporarlas al Pacto Nacional para la Eliminación de la Transmisión Vertical de la Enfermedad de Chagas.

Uso da modelagem de equações estruturais na compreensão da incapacidade funcional de idosos com catarata autorreferida / Use of structural equation modeling to understand the functional disability of elderly people with self-reported cataract

Objetivo: Verificar as associações diretas e indiretas entre variáveis demográficas, econômicas, biopsicossociais e comportamentais com a incapacidade funcional de idosos com catarata autorreferida. Método: Estudo transversal entre 260 idosos com catarata autorreferida e residentes na área urbana de uma microrregião de saúde de Minas Gerais. A coleta dos dados foi realizada nos domicílios mediante a aplicação de instrumentos validados no Brasil. Procederam-se as análises descritiva e de trajetórias (p<0,05). Resultados: O declínio funcional ocorreu de forma hierárquica. O pior desempenho físico associou-se diretamente à maior incapacidade funcional para as atividades básicas (p= 0,003), instrumentais (p<0,001) e avançadas (p= 0,003) da vida diária. A inatividade física esteve associada diretamente à maior incapacidade funcional para as atividades instrumentais (p<0,001) e avançadas (p<0,001). A menor escolaridade (p= 0,020), o maior número de sintomas depressivos (p<0,001) e o menor escore de apoio social (p<0,001) associaram-se diretamente à maior incapacidade funcional para as atividades avançadas, tal como a maior idade (p= 0,001) para as instrumentais. Observaram-se associações indiretas, mediadas pelo pior desempenho físico, entre o sexo feminino e o maior número de morbidades com a incapacidade funcional para as três atividades da vida diária. Conclusão: Idosos com catarata autorreferida apresentaram comprometimento da capacidade funcional relacionado à idade mais avançada, à baixa escolaridade, ao pior desempenho físico, à inatividade física, à presença de sintomas depressivos e ao menor nível de apoio social.

Objective: To verify the direct and indirect associations between demographic, economic, biopsychosocial and behavioral variables with the functional disability of the elderly with self-reported cataract. Method: Cross-sectional study among 260 elderly people with self- reported cataract and residents in the urban area of ​​a health micro-region in Minas Gerais. Data collection was carried out in the households through the application of instruments validated in Brazil. Descriptive and trajectory analyzes were carried out (p<0.05). Results: The functional decline occurred in a hierarchical manner. The worst physical performance was directly associated with greater functional incapacity for basic (p= 0.003), instrumental (p<0.001) and advanced (p= 0.003) activities of daily living. Physical inactivity was directly associated with greater functional disability for instrumental (p<0.001) and advanced (p<0.001) activities. Lower schooling (p= 0.020), higher number of depressive symptoms (p<0.001) and lower social support score (p<0.001) were directly associated with greater functional incapacity for advanced activities, such as older age (p= 0.001) for the instruments. Indirect associations, mediated by worse physical performance, were observed between females and the highest number of morbidities with functional incapacity for the three activities of daily living. Conclusion: Elderly people with self-reported cataract showed impairment of functional capacity related to older age, low education, worse physical performance, physical inactivity, presence of depressive symptoms and lower level of social support.

Quality of life in older adults according to race/color: a cross-sectional study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Increased longevity is accompanied by new social and health demands, such as the race/color social construct, indicating the need to identify the specific needs of older adults to maintain and improve their quality of life. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to verify the direct and indirect associations of demographic, economic, and biopsychosocial characteristics with self-assessed quality of life in older adults according to race/color. DESIGN AND SETTING: This cross-sectional study included 941 older adults living in the urban area of a health microregion in Minas Gerais, Brazil. METHODS: Older adults were divided into three groups: white (n = 585), brown (n = 238), and black (n = 102) race/color. Descriptive and trajectory analyses were performed (P < 0.05). RESULTS: Among the three groups, worse self-assessed quality of life was directly associated with lower social support scores and greater numbers of depressive symptoms. Worse self-assessed quality of life was also directly associated with a higher number of functional disabilities in basic activities of daily living and the absence of a partner among older adults of brown and black race/color. Lower monthly income and higher numbers of morbidities and compromised components of the frailty phenotype were observed among participants of white race/color, as well as lower levels of education in the brown race/color group. CONCLUSION: Factors associated with poorer self-assessed quality of life among older adults in the study community differed according to race/color.

Use of structural models to elucidate the occurrence of falls among older adults according to abdominal obesity: a cross-sectional study

Abstract BACKGROUND: Obesity is a risk factor for falls in older adults, but the effects of body fat distribution and its interaction with other factors are not well established. OBJECTIVES: To verify the occurrence of falls among older adults with and without abdominal obesity and the effects of sociodemographic, health, and behavioral variables on this outcome. DESIGN AND SETTING: A cross-sectional study in an urban area of Alcobaça, Brazil. METHODS: Men and women older than 60 years with (270) and without (184) abdominal obesity were included. Sociodemographic, health, and behavioral data were collected using validated questionnaires in Brazil. Descriptive and path analyses were performed (P < 0.05). RESULTS: The occurrence of falls was high in participants with abdominal obesity (33.0%). In both groups, a higher number of morbidities (β = 0.25, P < 0.001; β = 0.26, P = 0.002) was directly associated with a higher occurrence of falls. Among participants without abdominal obesity, a lower number of medications (β = -0.16; P = 0.04), a higher number of depressive symptoms (β = 0.15; P = 0.04), worse performance on the agility and dynamic balance tests (β = 0.37; P < 0.001), and lower functional disability for basic activities of daily living (β = -0.21; P = 0.006) were directly associated with the occurrence of falls. CONCLUSION: Adults older than 60 years with abdominal obesity have a higher prevalence of falls. Different factors were associated with the occurrence of falls in both groups.

Hypophosphatemic Rickets in Colombia: A Prevalence-Estimation Model in Rare Diseases. 2018.

Background: Hypophosphatemic rickets is a rare, genetic syndrome with multisystem involvement. It causes skeletal abnormalities, painful enthesopathies, increased risk of fracture, and short stature; leading to a substantial burden of disease, disability, and worsening of quality of life. To improve health conditions of people living with this disease, it is essential to know its prevalence which is currently unknown in Colombia. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of hypophosphatemic rickets in Colombia by using a mathematical model and national statistic records. Methods: We executed a model to estimate probabilities of transitions between health, disease, and death states (Markov chains). The model was fed with international prevalences taken from original studies (systematic review) and administrative records' data from SISPRO (a national health information system) using the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) E833 code, vital statistics, and census data. World Health Organization's (WHO) DISMOD II software was used to develop the model. Findings: The estimated overall prevalence of hypophosphatemic rickets in Colombia in 2018 was 2·03 cases per 100 000 people (981 affected people), with a sensitive range of 1·97 to 2·09. The estimated prevalence by sex was 2·61 (645 people) and 1·43 (336 people) cases per 100 000 women and men, respectively. Interpretation: Our overall estimated prevalence shows consistency with original international data. This is the first prevalence estimation of hypophosphatemic rickets in Colombia and will be relevant to support public health decisions for rare diseases and to provide a pre-test probability framework in clinical practice. DISMOD II and the model are useful tools to estimate the prevalence of rare and orphan diseases, when probabilistic studies cannot be carried out. There are limited bibliographic resources worldwide reporting prevalence values supported by original studies. Our study can be used as a cost-effective methodology reference in this regard, especially for Latin America. Funding: Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, as a donation.

Social support among older adults understood through structural equation modeling / Apoyo social entre mujeres y hombres mayores entendido a través de modelos de ecuaciones estructurales / Apoio social entre mulheres e homens idosos compreendido por meio da modelagem de equações estruturais

ABSTRACT Objectives: to analyze factors associated, directly and indirectly, with lower social support of older adults, according to sex. Methods: a cross-sectional study, with 941 older adults from a health micro-region in Minas Gerais. Descriptive and trajectory analyzes were carried out (p<0.05). Results: in groups of women and men, direct and significant associations were observed between a smaller social network (p<0.001;p<0.001), single-person housing (p=0.046;p<0.001), greater number of depressive symptoms (p<0.001;p=0.010) and lower participation in advanced activities (p<0.001;p=0.005) with lower social support. In women, younger age was directly and significantly associated with outcome (p<0.001). In men, older age, mediated by lower participation in advanced activities, was indirectly associated with outcome. Conclusions: men and women showed less social support associated with social network, housing arrangement, depressive symptoms and participation in advanced activities. Understanding the context of social support among older adults makes it possible to establish more effective measures to improve care.

RESUMEN Objetivos: analizar los factores asociados, directa e indirectamente, al menor apoyo social de los ancianos, según sexo. Métodos: estudio transversal con 941 ancianos de una microrregión de salud de Minas Gerais. Se realizaron análisis descriptivos y de trayectoria (p<0,05). Resultados: en los grupos de mujeres y hombres se observaron asociaciones directas y significativas entre menor red social (p<0,001;p<0,001), vivienda unipersonal (p=0,046;p<0,001), mayor número de síntomas depresivos (p<0,001;p=0,010) y menor participación en actividades avanzadas (p<0,001;p=0,005) con menor apoyo social, respectivamente. En las mujeres, la menor edad se asoció directa y significativamente con el resultado (p<0,001). En los hombres, la mayor edad, mediada por una menor participación en actividades avanzadas, se asoció indirectamente con el resultado. Conclusiones: hombres y mujeres mostraron menor apoyo social asociado a la red social, arreglo de vivienda, síntomas depresivos y participación en actividades avanzadas. Comprender el contexto de apoyo social entre los ancianos permite establecer medidas más eficaces para mejorar la atención.

RESUMO Objetivos: analisar os fatores associados, direta e indiretamente, ao menor apoio social de idosos, segundo o sexo. Métodos: estudo transversal, com 941 idosos de uma microrregião de saúde de Minas Gerais. Realizaram-se análises descritiva e de trajetórias (p<0,05). Resultados: observaram-se, nos grupos de mulheres e homens, associações diretas e significativas entre menor rede social (p<0,001;p<0,001), moradia unipessoal (p=0,046;p<0,001), maior número de sintomas depressivos (p<0,001;p=0,010) e menor participação nas atividades avançadas (p<0,001;p=0,005) com menor apoio social, respectivamente. Nas mulheres, a menor idade se associou direta e significativamente ao desfecho (p<0,001). Nos homens, a maior idade, mediada pela menor participação nas atividades avançadas, associou-se indiretamente ao desfecho. Conclusões: os homens e mulheres apresentaram menor apoio social associado à rede social, arranjo de moradia, sintomatologia depressiva e participação nas atividades avançadas. A compreensão do contexto do apoio social entre idosos possibilita o estabelecimento de medidas mais eficazes na melhoria do cuidado.

Ambient air pollutants relate to hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Ganzhou, China

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To evaluate the relationship between ambient air pollutants and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in relatively low-polluted areas in China. METHODS Atmospheric pollutants levels and meteorological data were obtained from January 2016 to December 2020. The medical database including daily hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ICD10: J44) was derived from the First Affiliated Hospital of Gannan Medical University. The generalized additive model was used to analyze the percentage change with 95% confidence interval in daily hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease associated with a 10 µg/m3 increase in atmospheric pollutants levels. RESULTS In total, occurred 4,980 chronic obstructive pulmonary disease hospital admissions (not including emergency department visits) during 2016-2020. The mean concentrations of daily PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO were 37.5 μg/m3, 60.1 μg/m3, 18.7 μg/m3, 23.5 μg/m3, 70.0 μg/m3, and 1.2 mg/m3 in Ganzhou. Each 10 µg/m3 increment of PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and O3 were significantly associated with 2.8% (95%CI: 1.0-4.7), 1.3% (95%CI: 0.3-2.4), 2.8% (95%CI: 0.4-5.4), and 1.5% (95%CI: 0.2-2.7) elevation in daily chronic obstructive pulmonary disease hospital admissions. The estimates of delayed effects of PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and O3 were observed at lag6, lag6, lag8, lag1, respectively. The health effects of particulate pollutants (PM2.5 and PM10) may be independent of other pollutants. The adverse effects of air pollutants were more evident in the warm season (May-Oct) than in the cold season (Nov-Apr). CONCLUSION Our study demonstrated that elevated concentrations of atmospheric pollutant (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and O3), especially particulate pollutants, can be associated with increased daily count of hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease , which may promote further understanding of the potential hazards of relatively low levels of air pollution on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and other respiratory disorders.

Fatores associados à síndrome de fragilidade em idosos: análise de modelagem de equações estruturais / Frailty syndrome among the elderly and its associated factors: a structural equation modeling analysis

Objetivo: Analisar a síndrome de fragilidade e seus fatores associados entre idosos na comunidade. Método: Estudo transversal com 1.601 idosos residentes na área urbana da Macrorregião de Saúde do Triângulo Sul de Minas Gerais, que foram divididos em dois grupos: pré-fragilidade/fragilidade (n= 1200) e não fragilidade (n= 401). Os dados foram coletados nos domicílios mediante a aplicação de instrumentos validados no Brasil. Procederam-se as análises descritiva e de trajetórias (p<0,05). Resultados: A maior idade (p<0,001), tal como a menor escolaridade (p<0,001), o maior número de morbidades (p<0,001), o alto risco para complicações metabólicas (p= 0,006) e as medidas inadequadas das circunferências da panturrilha (p<0,001) e braquial (p= 0,028) associaram-se diretamente à pré-fragilidade/fragilidade. As associações indiretas com esta condição foram entre o sexo masculino (ß= -0,01), mediado pela medida inadequada da circunferência da panturrilha; sexo feminino, mediado pelo maior número de morbidades (ß= 0,04) e pelo alto risco para complicações metabólicas (ß= 0,03); e o índice de massa corporal mediado pelo maior número de morbidades (ß= 0,03). Conclusão: A maior idade, baixa escolaridade, polimorbidade e inadequações nas medidas das circunferências abdominal, panturrilha e braquial são aspectos que devem ser considerados na elaboração de estratégias de atenção à saúde do idoso, visando postergar o surgimento da síndrome de fragilidade e/ou minimizar suas consequências.

Objective: Analyze the frailty syndrome and its associated factors among the community-dwelling elderly. Method: A cross-sectional study with 1.601 elderlies living in the urban area of the Health Macro-region of the Southern Triangle of Minas Gerais ­ Brazil divided into two groups: pre-frail/frail (n= 1.200) and non-frail (n= 401). Validated questionnaires were used for data collection. Descriptive and trajectory analyzes were conducted (p<0.05). Results: Older age (p<0.001), a low education level (p<0.001), the highest number of morbidities (p<0.001), high risk for metabolic complications (p= 0.006), and inadequate calf and brachial circumferences were directly associated with pre-frailty/frailty (p<0.001 and p= 0.028, respectively). Indirect associations with prefrailty were found between males mediated by inadequate calf circumference measurement (ß= -0.01), females mediated by the highest number of morbidities and the high risk for metabolic complications (ß= 0.04 and ß= 0.03, respectively, and the body mass index mediated by the highest number of morbidities (ß= 0.03). Conclusion: Older age, low education level, multimorbidity, and inadequate measurements of waist, calf, and brachial circumferences are features that must be considered when designing health care strategies for the elderly aiming to delay the onset of frailty syndrome or minimize its consequences.

Compreendendo os métodos de escore de propensão na pesquisa clínica / Understanding the methods of propensity score in clinical research

Os métodos de escore de propensão são a probabilidade de um sujeito receber um tratamento condicional em um conjunto de características de base (confundidores), sendo usado para comparar pacientes com distribuição similar de fatores de confusão, de modo que a diferença nos resultados forneça estimativa imparcial do efeito do tratamento. Esta revisão mostra os conceitos básicos dos escore de propensão e fornece orientação na implementação de métodos de propensão, além de outros, como estratificação, ponderação e ajuste de covariáveis, tornando-se uma guia prático para o clínico

The propensity score methods are the probability of a subject receiving conditional treatment on a set of baseline characteristics (confounders), and are used to compare patients with similar confounding distributions, so that the difference in results provides an unbiased estimate of the treatment effect. This review shows the basic concepts of propensity scores, and provides guidelines for the implementation of propensity methods, and others based on it, such as stratification, weighting, and adjustment of covariables, becoming a practical guide for the clinician

The future is coming: promising perspectives regarding the use of machine learning in renal transplantation / O futuro está chegando: perspectivas promissoras sobre o uso de machine learning no transplante renal

Abstract Introduction: The prediction of post transplantation outcomes is clinically important and involves several problems. The current prediction models based on standard statistics are very complex, difficult to validate and do not provide accurate prediction. Machine learning, a statistical technique that allows the computer to make future predictions using previous experiences, is beginning to be used in order to solve these issues. In the field of kidney transplantation, computational forecasting use has been reported in prediction of chronic allograft rejection, delayed graft function, and graft survival. This paper describes machine learning principles and steps to make a prediction and performs a brief analysis of the most recent applications of its application in literature. Discussion: There is compelling evidence that machine learning approaches based on donor and recipient data are better in providing improved prognosis of graft outcomes than traditional analysis. The immediate expectations that emerge from this new prediction modelling technique are that it will generate better clinical decisions based on dynamic and local practice data and optimize organ allocation as well as post transplantation care management. Despite the promising results, there is no substantial number of studies yet to determine feasibility of its application in a clinical setting. Conclusion: The way we deal with storage data in electronic health records will radically change in the coming years and machine learning will be part of clinical daily routine, whether to predict clinical outcomes or suggest diagnosis based on institutional experience.

Resumo Introdução: A predição de resultados pós-transplante é clinicamente importante e envolve vários problemas. Os atuais modelos de previsão baseados em padrões estatísticos são muito complexos, difíceis de validar e não fornecem previsões precisas. Machine Learning, é uma técnica estatística que permite que o computador faça previsões futuras usando experiências anteriores, está começando a ser usada para resolver essas questões. No campo do transplante renal, o uso da previsão computacional foi relatado na predição de rejeição crônica de aloenxerto, função tardia do enxerto e sobrevida do enxerto. Este artigo descreve os princípios e etapas de machine learning para fazer uma previsão e realiza uma breve análise das aplicações mais recentes de seu uso na literatura. Discussão: Existem evidências convincentes de que as abordagens de machine learning baseadas nos dados do doador e do receptor são melhores para proporcionar melhor prognóstico dos resultados do enxerto do que a análise tradicional. As expectativas imediatas que emergem dessa nova técnica de modelagem de previsão são que ela gerará melhores decisões clínicas baseadas em dados de práticas dinâmicas e locais e aperfeiçoará a alocação de órgãos, bem como o gerenciamento de cuidados pós-transplante. Apesar dos resultados promissores, ainda não há um número substancial de estudos para determinar a viabilidade de sua aplicação em um cenário clínico. Conclusão: A forma como lidamos com dados de armazenamento em prontuários eletrônicos de saúde mudará radicalmente nos próximos anos e a machine learning fará parte da rotina clínica diária, seja para prever resultados clínicos ou sugerir um diagnóstico baseado na experiência institucional.

Fragilidade física em idosos submetidos ao exame de aptidão física e mental para habilitação veicular: um modelo de triagem / Physical frailty in the elderly submitted to the physical and mental aptitude test for vehicular habilitation: a screening model

Trata-se de estudo do tipo quantitativo de corte transversal, desenvolvido com o objetivo de recomendar um modelo de triagem para idosos submetidos ao exame de aptidão física e/ou mental para direção veicular, com base na fragilidade física e seus componentes. O estudo foi realizado com uma amostra representativa da população constituída por 421 idosos (≥ 60 anos) submetidos aos exames de aptidão física e mental, em 12 clínicas credenciadas pelo órgão de trânsito de Curitiba-PR. Os idosos e as clínicas foram selecionados mediante critérios préestabelecidos de inclusão/exclusão. A coleta de dados ocorreu no período de janeiro de 2015 a maio de 2016, por intermédio de screening cognitivo, levantamento de dados sociodemográficos, clínicos e de direção veicular, e aplicação de testes específicos para a avaliação da fragilidade física segundo o fenótipo de Fried. Os dados foram codificados e organizados no programa computacional Excel® 2007 e analisados no software Statistical Package for Social Sciences® e software R versão 3.2.3. Empregaram-se estatísticas descritivas, análises univariadas (nível de significância estatística p<0,05), análises multivariadas por meio de regressão logística e os métodos Support vector machine, Particionamento recursivo, Boosted trees, Random forest, Redes neurais artificiais, K nearest neighbors, Naïve bayes, Bagged tree e Análise linear discriminante. Dos 421 idosos participantes dos estudo, 8 (1,9%) foram classificados como frágeis, 189 (44,9%) pré-frágeis e 224 (53,2%) não frágeis. As variáveis sociodemográficas e clínicas que se associaram à fragilidade física foram: idade (p<0,001), com quem mora (p=0,021), inserção no mercado de trabalho (p=0,003), aposentadoria (p=0,021), problemas de saúde (p=0,017), tontura nos últimos 12 meses (p=0,001), uso de tecnologias assistivas (p=0,002), uso de medicamentos (p=0,003), hospitalização nos últimos 12 meses (p<0,001), doenças do aparelho circulatório (p=0,01) e do aparelho geniturinário (p=0,046). Quanto ao resultado do exame de aptidão física e/ou mental para direção veicular, 301 (71,5%) idosos foram classificados como aptos com restrição, 92 (21,9%) como aptos e 28 (6,7%) aptos temporários. As variáveis sociodemográficas associadas ao resultado do exame de aptidão física e/ou mental para direção veicular foram: idade (p=0,002), escolaridade (p<0,001), renda (p=0,004), inserção no mercado de trabalho (p<0,001) e hospitalização nos últimos 12 meses (p=0,020). A condição de fragilidade física não se associou ao resultado do exame de aptidão física e/ou mental para direção veicular (p=0,191). Houve associação significativa entre o resultado do exame de aptidão física e/ou mental para direção veicular e velocidade da marcha (OR=8.78; IC 95%, 1.3-58.8; p=0,025), perda de peso (OR=3.68; IC 95%; 1.42-9.47; p=0,006) e atividade física (OR=2.63, IC 95%, 1.26- 5.46; p=0,009). Os componentes de fragilidade física não foram preditores de inaptidão para direção veicular. Recomenda-se um Modelo de Triagem Inicial para os idosos que se submetem aos exames de aptidão física e/ou mental para direção veicular, com base na velocidade da marcha e perda de peso não intencional. O Modelo proporciona avaliações mais precisas e encaminhamentos dos idosos para o tratamento da fragilidade física, o que oportuniza chances de uma direção mais segura. O presente estudo é relevante para a enfermagem gerontológica à medida que se destaca um novo campo de atuação para o profissional enfermeiro e novos conhecimentos gerontológicos baseados em evidências capazes de aprimorar a avaliação dos idosos no seguimento da habilitação veicular.

This is a quantitative cross-sectional study developed with the objective of recommending a screening model for elderly individuals submitted to the physical and/or mental aptitude test for vehicular conduction, based on the physical fragility and its components. The study was carried out with a representative sample of 421 elders (≥ 60 years old) who underwent physical and mental fitness exams in 12 clinics accredited by the Curitiba-PR transit agency. The elderly and clinics were selected using pre-established inclusion / exclusion criteria. Data collection took place from January 2015 to May 2016, through cognitive screening, sociodemographic data, clinical and vehicular conduction, and the application of specific tests to assess the physical fragility according to the Fried phenotype. The data was coded and organized in the software Excel® 2007 and analyzed in the software Statistical Package for Social Sciences® and software R version 3.2.3. We used descriptive statistics, univariate analyzes (level of statistical significance p<0,05), multivariate analyzes using logistic regression and the methods Support vector machine, Recursive partitioning, Boosted trees, Random forest, Artificial neural networks, K nearest neighbors, Naive Bayes, Bagged tree and Linear discriminant analysis. From the 421 elderly participants in the study, 8 (1,9%) were classified as fragile, 189 (44,9%) pre-fragile and 224 (53,2%) non-fragile. The sociodemographic and clinical variables associated with physical frailty were: age (p<0,001), with whom he/she lives (p = 0,021), integration into the labor market (p=0,003), retirement (p=0,021), health problems (p=0,017), dizziness in the last 12 months (p=0,001), use of assistive technologies (p=0,002), medication use (p=0,003), hospitalization in the last 12 months (p<0,001), diseases of the circulatory system (p=0,01) and of the genitourinary system (p=0,046). Regarding the physical and/or mental fitness test results, 301 (71,5%) elders were classified as fit with restriction, 92 (21,9%) as fit and 28 (6,7%) were temporarily fit. The sociodemographic variables associated to the physical and/or mental fitness test result were: age (p=0,002), education (p<0,001), income (p=0,004), integration into the labor market (p<0,001) and hospitalization in the last 12 months (p=0,020). The condition of physical frailty was not associated to the result of the physical and/or mental aptitude test for vehicular conduction (p=0,191). There was a significant association between the result of the physical and/or mental aptitude test for vehicular conduction and walking speed (OR=8.78; IC 95%, 1.3-58.8; p=0,025), weight loss (OR=3.68; IC 95%; 1.42-9.47; p=0,006) and physical activity (OR=2.63, IC 95%, 1.26-5.46). The components of physical frailty were not predictors of disability in vehicle conduction. An Initial Screening Model is recommended for the elderly who undergo physical and/or mental fitness tests for vehicular conduction, based on walking speed and unintentional weight loss. The Model provides more accurate assessments and referrals of the elderly to the treatment of physical fragility, which gives chances of a safer driving. The present study is relevant for gerontological nursing as a new field of action for the nurse professional and new evidence-based gerontological knowledge were highlighted, capable of improving the evaluation of the elderly in the follow-up of the vehicular habilitation.

Se trata de estudio del tipo cuantitativo de corte transversal, desarrollado con el objetivo de recomendar un modelo de clasificación para adultos mayores sometidos al examen de aptitud física y / o mental para dirección vehicular, con base en la fragilidad física y sus componentes. El estudio fue realizado con una muestra representativa de la población constituida por 421 adultos mayores (≥ 60 años) sometidos a los exámenes de aptitud física y mental, en 12 clínicas acreditadas por el órgano de tránsito de Curitiba-PR. Los adultos mayores y las clínicas fueron seleccionados mediante criterios preestablecidos de inclusión / exclusión. La recolección de datos ocurrió en el período de enero de 2015 a mayo de 2016, por intermedio de evaluación cognitiva, levantamiento de datos sociodemográficos, clínicos y de dirección vehicular, y aplicación de pruebas específicas para la evaluación de la fragilidad física según el fenotipo de Fried. Los datos fueron codificados y organizados en el programa computacional Excel® 2007 y analizados en el software Statistical Package for Social Sciences® y software R versión 3.2.3. Se utilizaron estadísticas descriptivas, análisis univariados (nivel de significancia estadística p <0,05), análisis multivariados por medio de regresión logística y los métodos Support vector machine, Partición recursiva, Boosted trees, Random forest, Redes neurales artificiales, K nearest neighbors, Naïve bayes, Bagged tree y Análisis lineal discriminante. De los 421 adultos mayores participantes en los estudios, 8 (1,9%) fueron clasificados como frágiles, 189 (44,9%) pre-frágiles y 224 (53,2%) no frágiles. Las variables sociodemográficas y clínicas que se asociaron a la fragilidad física fueron: edad (p <0,001), con quien vive (p = 0,021), inserción en el mercado de trabajo (p = 0,003), jubilación (p = 0,021), problemas de salud (p = 0,017), mareo en los últimos 12 meses (p = 0,001), uso de tecnologías asistivas (p = 0,002), uso de medicamentos (p = 0,003), hospitalización en los últimos 12 meses (p <0,001), enfermedades del aparato circulatorio (p = 0,01) y del aparato genitourinario (p = 0,046). En cuanto al resultado del examen de aptitud física y / o mental para dirección vehicular, 301 (71,5%) ancianos fueron clasificados como aptos con restricción, 92 (21,9%) como aptos y 28 (6,7%) aptos temporales. Las variables sociodemográficas asociadas al resultado del examen de aptitud física y / o mental para dirección vehicular fueron: edad (p = 0,002), escolaridad (p <0,001), ingreso (p = 0,004), inserción en el mercado de trabajo (p <0,001) ) y hospitalización en los últimos 12 meses (p = 0,020). La condición de fragilidad física no se asoció al resultado del examen de aptitud física y / o mental para dirección vehicular (p = 0,191). Se observó una asociación significativa entre el resultado del examen de aptitud física y / o mental para la dirección vehicular y la velocidad de la marcha (OR = 8.78, IC 95%, 1.3-58.8, p = 0,025), pérdida de peso (OR = 3.68; IC 95 %, 1.42- 9.47, p = 0,006) y actividad física (OR = 2.63, IC 95%, 1.26-5.46; p = 0,009). Los componentes de fragilidad física no fueron predictores de inaptitud para la dirección vehicular. Se recomienda un modelo de ensayo inicial para los adultos mayores que se someten a los exámenes de aptitud física y / o mental para la dirección vehicular, con base en la velocidad de la marcha y pérdida de peso no intencional. El modelo proporciona evaluaciones más precisas y encaminamientos de los adultos mayores para el tratamiento de la fragilidad física, lo que oportuniza posibilidades de una dirección más segura. El presente estudio es relevante para la enfermería gerontológica a medida que se destaca un nuevo campo de actuación para el profesional enfermero y nuevos conocimientos gerontológicos basados en evidencias capaces de perfeccionar la evaluación de los adultos mayores en el seguimiento de la habilitación vehicular.

Comparison of machine-learning algorithms to build a predictive model for detecting undiagnosed diabetes - ELSA-Brasil: accuracy study / Comparação de algoritmos de aprendizagem de máquina para construir um modelo preditivo para detecção de diabetes não diagnosticada - ELSA-Brasil: estudo de acurácia

ABSTRACT CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Type 2 diabetes is a chronic disease associated with a wide range of serious health complications that have a major impact on overall health. The aims here were to develop and validate predictive models for detecting undiagnosed diabetes using data from the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) and to compare the performance of different machine-learning algorithms in this task. DESIGN AND SETTING: Comparison of machine-learning algorithms to develop predictive models using data from ELSA-Brasil. METHODS: After selecting a subset of 27 candidate variables from the literature, models were built and validated in four sequential steps: (i) parameter tuning with tenfold cross-validation, repeated three times; (ii) automatic variable selection using forward selection, a wrapper strategy with four different machine-learning algorithms and tenfold cross-validation (repeated three times), to evaluate each subset of variables; (iii) error estimation of model parameters with tenfold cross-validation, repeated ten times; and (iv) generalization testing on an independent dataset. The models were created with the following machine-learning algorithms: logistic regression, artificial neural network, naïve Bayes, K-nearest neighbor and random forest. RESULTS: The best models were created using artificial neural networks and logistic regression. ­These achieved mean areas under the curve of, respectively, 75.24% and 74.98% in the error estimation step and 74.17% and 74.41% in the generalization testing step. CONCLUSION: Most of the predictive models produced similar results, and demonstrated the feasibility of identifying individuals with highest probability of having undiagnosed diabetes, through easily-obtained clinical data.

RESUMO CONTEXTO E OBJETIVO: Diabetes tipo 2 é uma doença crônica associada a graves complicações de saúde, causando grande impacto na saúde global. O objetivo foi desenvolver e validar modelos preditivos para detectar diabetes não diagnosticada utilizando dados do Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto (ELSA-Brasil) e comparar o desempenho de diferentes algoritmos de aprendizagem de máquina. TIPO DE ESTUDO E LOCAL: Comparação de algoritmos de aprendizagem de máquina para o desenvolvimento de modelos preditivos utilizando dados do ELSA-Brasil. MÉTODOS: Após selecionar 27 variáveis candidatas a partir da literatura, modelos foram construídos e validados em 4 etapas sequenciais: (i) afinação de parâmetros com validação cruzada (10-fold cross-validation); (ii) seleção automática de variáveis utilizando seleção progressiva, estratégia "wrapper" com quatro algoritmos de aprendizagem de máquina distintos e validação cruzada para avaliar cada subconjunto de variáveis; (iii) estimação de erros dos parâmetros dos modelos com validação cruzada; e (iv) teste de generalização em um conjunto de dados independente. Os modelos foram criados com os seguintes algoritmos de aprendizagem de máquina: regressão logística, redes neurais artificiais, naïve Bayes, K vizinhos mais próximos e floresta aleatória. RESULTADOS: Os melhores modelos foram criados utilizando redes neurais artificiais e regressão logística alcançando, respectivamente, 75,24% e 74,98% de média de área sob a curva na etapa de estimação de erros e 74,17% e 74,41% na etapa de teste de generalização. CONCLUSÃO: A maioria dos modelos preditivos produziu resultados semelhantes e demonstrou a viabilidade de identificar aqueles com maior probabilidade de ter diabetes não diagnosticada com dados clínicos facilmente obtidos.

Sistema Automatizado para el procesamiento estadístico del Programa de la Madre y el Niño / Automated system for statistical processing program of the Mother and Child

Introducción: La más elevada organización del trabajo, imprescindible para el desarrollo, solo es posible lograrla en un departamento de estadísticas con la introducción de técnicas de ordenamiento automatizado que permitan la eficiencia necesaria en el manejo de grandes volúmenes de información. Objetivo: Diseñar un sistema automatizado que permita de manera sencilla y rápida el procesamiento de la información estadística del Programa de la Madre y el Niño en la Wilaya de Bechar. Material y Métodos: Se realizó una investigación de innovación tecnológica, consistente en el diseño de un sistema automatizado para el procesamiento de la información estadística. Se realizó además un análisis de las herramientas computacionales disponibles para la realización del sistema y determinar cuál o cuáles eran las más apropiadas de acuerdo con el objetivo del sistema y las características del personal encargado de su implementación y uso. Se utilizaron las herramientas para tabulación de información y fórmulas que ofrece el programa Excel del paquete Microsoft Office 2013. Para el diseño se utilizó una interfase muy simple, de fácil manejo por el posible usuario, que no necesita de explicaciones opcionales para su empleo. Resultados: Se propone el presente sistema cuya característica principal es la simplicidad de su uso. El mismo contribuye a organizar y facilitar el procesamiento de la información estadística a nivel de la Wilaya; permite ahorrar tiempo y recursos. Conclusiones: Contribuye de manera efectiva a facilitar la tarea de nuestros profesionales en la consolidación de la información estadística a nivel de la Wilaya(AU)

Introduction: The highest organization of work, essential for development, it is only possible to achieve in a statistics department with the introduction of automated sorting techniques that allow the necessary efficiency in handling large volumes of information. Objective: To design an automated system that allows simple and fast processing of statistical information Program of Mother and Child in the Wilaya of Bechar. Material and Methods: An investigation of technological innovation, consisting of the design of an automated system for processing statistical information was performed. An analysis of the computational tools available for implementing the system was also carried out and determine what or what were the most appropriate according to the objective of the system and the characteristics of the staff responsible for their implementation and use. Tools for tabulating information and formulas offered by the Excel program package Microsoft Office 2013. To design a very simple interface, easy to use by the prospective user, who needs no explanations for optional use was used were used. Results: The present system is proposed whose main characteristic is the simplicity of use. It contributes to organize and facilitate the processing of statistical information at the level of the wilaya; it saves time and resources. Conclusions: It contributes effectively to facilitate the work of our professionals in the consolidation of statistical information at the level of the Wilaya way(AU)

A Multivariate Model for Prediction of Obstructive Coronary Disease in Patients with Acute Chest Pain: Development and Validation / Um Modelo Multivariado para Predição de Doença Coronariana Obstrutiva em Pacientes com Dor Torácica Aguda: Desenvolvimento e Validação

Abstract Background: Currently, there is no validated multivariate model to predict probability of obstructive coronary disease in patients with acute chest pain. Objective: To develop and validate a multivariate model to predict coronary artery disease (CAD) based on variables assessed at admission to the coronary care unit (CCU) due to acute chest pain. Methods: A total of 470 patients were studied, 370 utilized as the derivation sample and the subsequent 100 patients as the validation sample. As the reference standard, angiography was required to rule in CAD (stenosis ≥ 70%), while either angiography or a negative noninvasive test could be used to rule it out. As predictors, 13 baseline variables related to medical history, 14 characteristics of chest discomfort, and eight variables from physical examination or laboratory tests were tested. Results: The prevalence of CAD was 48%. By logistic regression, six variables remained independent predictors of CAD: age, male gender, relief with nitrate, signs of heart failure, positive electrocardiogram, and troponin. The area under the curve (AUC) of this final model was 0.80 (95% confidence interval [95%CI] = 0.75 - 0.84) in the derivation sample and 0.86 (95%CI = 0.79 - 0.93) in the validation sample. Hosmer-Lemeshow's test indicated good calibration in both samples (p = 0.98 and p = 0.23, respectively). Compared with a basic model containing electrocardiogram and troponin, the full model provided an AUC increment of 0.07 in both derivation (p = 0.0002) and validation (p = 0.039) samples. Integrated discrimination improvement was 0.09 in both derivation (p < 0.001) and validation (p < 0.0015) samples. Conclusion: A multivariate model was derived and validated as an accurate tool for estimating the pretest probability of CAD in patients with acute chest pain.

Resumo Fundamento: Atualmente, não existe um modelo multivariado validado para predizer a probabilidade de doença coronariana obstrutiva em pacientes com dor torácica aguda. Objetivo: Desenvolver e validar um modelo multivariado para predizer doença arterial coronariana (DAC) com base em variáveis avaliadas à admissão na unidade coronariana (UC) devido a dor torácica aguda. Métodos: Foram estudados um total de 470 pacientes, 370 utilizados como amostra de derivação e os subsequentes 100 pacientes como amostra de validação. Como padrão de referência, a angiografia foi necessária para descartar DAC (estenose ≥ 70%), enquanto a angiografia ou um teste não invasivo negativo foi utilizado para confirmar a doença. Foram testadas como preditoras 13 variáveis basais relacionadas à história médica, 14 características de desconforto torácico e oito variáveis relacionadas ao exame físico ou testes laboratoriais. Resultados: A prevalência de DAC foi de 48%. Por regressão logística, seis variáveis permaneceram como preditoras independentes de DAC: idade, gênero masculino, alívio com nitrato, sinais de insuficiência cardíaca, e eletrocardiograma e troponina positivos. A área sob a curva (area under the curve, AUC) deste modelo final foi de 0,80 (intervalo de confiança de 95% [IC95%] = 0,75 - 0,84) na amostra de derivação e 0,86 (IC95% = 0,79 - 0,93) na amostra de validação. O teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow indicou uma boa calibração em ambas as amostras (p = 0,98 e p = 0,23, respectivamente). Em comparação com o modelo básico contendo eletrocardiograma e troponina, o modelo completo ofereceu um incremento na AUC de 0,07 tanto na amostra de derivação (p = 0,0002) quanto na de validação (p = 0,039). A melhoria na discriminação integrada foi de 0,09 nas amostras de derivação (p < 0,001) e validação (p < 0,0015). Conclusão: Um modelo multivariado foi derivado e validado como uma ferramenta acurada para estimar a probabilidade pré-teste de DAC em pacientes com dor torácica aguda.

Multinomial model and zero-inflated gamma model to study time spent on leisure time physical activity: an example of ELSA-Brasil

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To compare two methodological approaches: the multinomial model and the zero-inflated gamma model, evaluating the factors associated with the practice and amount of time spent on leisure time physical activity. METHODS Data collected from 14,823 baseline participants in the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil - Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto ) have been analysed. Regular leisure time physical activity has been measured using the leisure time physical activity module of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The explanatory variables considered were gender, age, education level, and annual per capita family income. RESULTS The main advantage of the zero-inflated gamma model over the multinomial model is that it estimates mean time (minutes per week) spent on leisure time physical activity. For example, on average, men spent 28 minutes/week longer on leisure time physical activity than women did. The most sedentary groups were young women with low education level and income CONCLUSIONS The zero-inflated gamma model, which is rarely used in epidemiological studies, can give more appropriate answers in several situations. In our case, we have obtained important information on the main determinants of the duration of leisure time physical activity. This information can help guide efforts towards the most vulnerable groups since physical inactivity is associated with different diseases and even premature death.

Modelo estadístico predictivo para el padecimiento de pie diabético en pacientes con diabetes mellitus tipo II / Statistical Model for Prediction of Diabetic Foot Disease in Type 2 Diabetic Patients

Fundamento: La necesidad de prever y estudiar el padecimiento de pie diabético es una cuestión primordial y representa un gran reto médico, disminuir el padecimiento de pie diabético puede traducirse en resultados positivos para mejorar la calidad de vida de estos pacientes, además de la incidencia en el aspecto socioeconómico, debido a la alta prevalencia de la diabetes en la población laboralmente activa.Objetivo: diseñar un modelo estadístico predictivo para el padecimiento de pie diabético en pacientes con diabetes mellitus tipo II.Métodos: se realizó un estudio descriptivo, con pacientes atendidos en la Clínica del Diabético de Cienfuegos, en el período 2010-2013. Como varibles, se analizaron los factores de riesgo que influyeron de forma significativa en el padecimiento de pie diabético. Para la elaboración del modelo se emplearon técnicas multivariadas de regresión logística binaria y árboles de decisión con algoritmo de detector automático de interacciones mediante Chi-cuadrado.Resultados: se obtuvieron dos modelos que se comportaron de forma similar a partir de los criterios de comparación considerados con este propósito: porcentaje de clasificación correcta, sensibilidad y especificidad. Se estableció la validación a través de la curva característica de funcionamiento del receptor. El modelo con algoritmo de detector automático de interacciones mediante Chi-cuadrado fue el de mejores resultados predictivos.Conclusión: el uso de los árboles de decisión a través del algoritmo de detector automático de interacciones mediante Chi-cuadrado, garantiza una capacidad predictiva adecuada, factible para ser aplicada en la Clínica del Diabético del municipio de Cienfuegos, provincia Cienfuegos.

Background: the need to predict and study diabetic foot problems is a critical issue and represents a major medical challenge. The reduction of its incidence can lead to positive results for improving the quality of life of patients and the impact on the socio-economic sphere, due to the high prevalence of diabetes in the working population. Objective: to design a statistical model for prediction of diabetic foot disease in type 2 diabetic patients. Methods: a descriptive study was conducted in patients attending the Diabetes Clinic in Cienfuegos from 2010 to 2013. Significant risk factors for diabetic foot disease were analyzed as variables. To design the model, binary logistic regression analysis and Chi-squared automatic interaction detection decision tree were used. Results: two models that behaved similarly based on the comparison criteria considered (percentage of correct classification, sensitivity and specificity) were developed. Validation was established through the receiver operating characteristic curve. The model using Chi-squared automatic interaction detection showed the best predictive results. Conclusions: Chi-squared automatic interaction detection decision trees have an adequate predictive capacity, which can be used in the Diabetes Clinic of Cienfuegos municipality.