The role of carbon price signal in green innovation: Evidence from China.

The carbon emission trading scheme (ETS), a market-based environmental regulation, is critical for in combating climate change in China. According to the Porter effect, ETS can promote green innovation, while the specific impact of carbon price on a company's green innovation, and the role of price signals, remain unclear. This study examines the impact of carbon price on green innovation, utilizing a dataset of A-share listed companies spanning from 2010 to 2020. The difference-in-differences estimation results demonstrate that carbon price significantly increases green innovation, promoting both invention patents and utility model patents. Our findings further indicate that moderating variables such as ESG disclosure, larger institutional investor shareholding, local environmental penalties, price stabilization mechanisms, and free quotas allocation can all amplify the constructive influence of carbon pricing on sustainable innovation. Moreover, heterogeneity analysis suggests that state-owned and large-scale companies, particularly those in the power sector and polluting sector, are more sensitive to price signals impacting green innovation. Additionally, we discovered a spatial externality of carbon pricing on green innovation in a radius ranging from 150 km to 300 km. This paper provides specific policy recommendations to stabilize the carbon price signal.

New Evidence of the Impact of the National Drug Price Negotiation Policy on the Availability, Utilization, and Cost of Anticancer Medicines in China: An Interrupted Time Series Study.

Purpose: The increasing global burden of cancer has become a significant challenge for public health. The Chinese government introduced the National Drug Price Negotiation (NDPN) policy with the goal of lowering the prices of innovative drugs and enhancing their accessibility. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the 2021 NDPN policy on the availability, utilization, and cost of anticancer medicines in China. Methods: Data was gathered from 1519 hospitals between April 2021 and December 2022, with a focus on eight anticancer drugs affected by the 2021 NDPN policy. The availability, Defined Daily Doses (DDDs), and cost per Defined Daily Dose (DDDc) before and after the intervention were evaluated through interrupted time series analysis. Results: The NDPN policy resulted in a substantial 5.10% increase in the availability of anticancer drugs (p < 0.001). Utilization also experienced a significant surge, with an immediate increase of 11,254.36 DDDs (p < 0.001) and a monthly increase of 1208.28 DDDs (p < 0.001) following policy implementation. The DDDc decreased by US$ 111.00 (p < 0.001) immediately after the policy. Disparities in regional drug utilization were evident, with higher usage in the eastern region. Conclusion: The 2021 NDPN policy has notably enhanced the availability and utilization of anticancer medications in China while reducing their cost, in line with the policy's objectives. However, continuous monitoring is essential to ensure sustained access and to tackle regional disparities in drug utilization.

Do controlling shareholders' equity pledges exacerbate the stock price crash risk? -A study based on margin trading and securities lending transactions in China's securities market.

It clarifies the influence mechanism of controlling shareholders' equity pledges, margin trading and securities lending, and stock price crash risk from the perspective of corporate governance, etc. This paper establishes a main and interaction effect regression model to empirically test the impact mechanism of controlling shareholders' equity pledge on stock price crash risk and the moderating effect of margin trading and securities lending in the process of this impact based on the measures of stock price crash risk, controlling shareholders' equity pledge level, as well as margin trading and securities lending transaction size, using China's A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2020 as the sample. It finds that: (i) The higher the controlling shareholder's equity pledge ratio of listed companies, the lower the stock price crash risk. (ii) There is no significant effect of margin trading and securities lending transactions on stock price crash risk. (iii) Securities lending transactions have a positive moderating effect in the impact of controlling shareholders' equity pledges on stock price crash risk, but the moderating effect of margin trading transactions is insignificant.

Impact of NHI copayment adjustments on healthcare seeking behavior: the mediating role of health facility identification.

OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the impact of healthcare consumers' involvement, price perception, and attitude toward National Health Insurance (NHI) copayment adjustments on their healthcare-seeking behavior, focusing on the mediating role of health facility identification. METHODS: A questionnaire survey was conducted among outpatient customers in Taiwan from October 2023 to March 2024, resulting in 746 valid responses. The survey included demographic variables, involvement, price perception, attitude, health facility identification, and healthcare-seeking behavior. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and multiple regression analysis with SPSS 20.0. RESULTS: The study found that involvement, price perception, and attitude significantly influence healthcare-seeking behavior. Health facility identification was identified as a significant mediator in the relationship between copayment perception and healthcare-seeking behavior. The regression analysis also highlighted the impact of demographic factors such as age, education level, marital status, and annual income on healthcare-seeking behavior. The path model illustrated the complex interplay between perceptual factors and their influence on healthcare-seeking behavior. CONCLUSION: This study emphasizes the importance of consumer involvement, price perception, and attitude in shaping healthcare utilization patterns. Health facility identification plays a crucial mediating role, suggesting that stronger patient-provider relationships can mitigate potential negative impacts of copayment adjustments. Policymakers and healthcare providers should enhance patient engagement, foster strong patient-facility identification, and provide targeted support for vulnerable groups to ensure equitable access to healthcare services despite copayment changes.

Modification of the association between cold spells and cardiovascular disease by changes in natural gas prices: A nationwide time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Although the association between low ambient temperature and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well-established, the effect of winter energy prices on this association remains unknown. AIM: This ecological study aimed to investigate whether changes in natural gas prices (NGP), which account for a significant portion of winter energy prices in Korea, affect the association of cold spells with hospital admissions and mortality due to CVD. METHODS: Data from the National Health Insurance Service and Statistics Korea were used to determine the daily number of hospital admissions and mortality rates associated with CVD. From January 2012 to February 2017, the NGP continually increased by 24.1%. From January 2012 to December 2014 the NGP continually decreased by 32.6% owing to the Korea Gas Corporation's management decisions, independent of external socioeconomic factors. We investigated the differences in the associations between cold spells and CVD-related outcomes in price-increasing and price-decreasing periods using a Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model. Cold spells were assessed on two consecutive days at the 5th percentile of the temperature for each region. RESULTS: The meteorological factors and air pollution levels were similar between the two periods. The association between cold spells and hospital admissions due to CVD was stronger during the price-increasing period than during the price-decreasing period [ratio of cumulative relative risk (RRR) = 1.71, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.31-2.22]. The difference in the association with mortality due to CVD between the two periods was not significant, although the point estimate remained >1 (RRR = 1.11, 95% CI: 0.90-1.38). CONCLUSIONS: Changes in energy prices may modify the cold spell-related CVD risk, possibly by inducing behavioral changes to manage energy expenditure. Policymakers should take into account the potential public health implications of changes in energy prices, alongside their economic effects.

Framework for multivariate carbon price forecasting: A novel hybrid model.

The complex characteristics of volatility and non-linearity of carbon price pose a serious challenge to accurately predict carbon price. Therefore, this study proposes a new hybrid model for multivariate carbon price forecasting, including feature selection, deep learning, intelligent optimization algorithms, model combination and evaluation indicators. First, this study collects and organizes the historical carbon price series of Hubei and Shanghai as well as the influencing factors in five dimensions including structured and unstructured data, totaling twenty variables. Second, data dimensionality reduction is performed and input variables are obtained using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, followed by the introduction of nine advanced deep learning models to predict carbon price and compare the prediction effects. Then, through the combination of models, three models with the best performance are combined with Pelican optimization algorithm to construct a hybrid forecasting model. Finally, the experimental results show that the developed forecasting model outperforms other comparation models in terms of prediction accuracy, stability and statistical hypothesis testing, and exhibits excellent prediction performance. Furthermore, this study also applies the developed model to European carbon market price prediction and uses the Hubei carbon market as an example for quantitative trading simulation, and the empirical results further verify its robust prediction performance and investment application value. In conclusion, the proposed hybrid prediction model can not only provide high-precision carbon market price prediction for the government and corporate decision makers, but also help investors optimize their trading strategies and improve their returns.

Driving change: Understanding consumers' reasons influencing electric vehicle adoption from the lens of behavioural reasoning theory.

The present study attempts to explore consumer-centric reasons affecting the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) are investigated using behavioural reasoning theory (BRT). Our study is among the first to examine consumer's EV adoption intention using BRT through the integration of the reasons "for and against" electric vehicle (EV) adoption. On data of 312 urban consumers, second order confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) revealed the existence of underlying reasons and SEM helped in testing the proposed relationships. This study also investigates the interaction effect of financial incentive policy with the consumer reasons on EV adoption. Findings revealed that "reasons for" adoption are environmental concern, perceived technology, and maintenance of knowledge and "reasons against" adoption are scepticism, price, and instrumental utility. Environmental beliefs and values influence the "reasons for" consumer intentions to approve electric vehicle adoption. Financial incentives policy was found significant in dampening the impact of reasons against adoption of electric vehicle. The study delineates the strategies for strengthening the promotion of electric vehicles.

The stronger the ability, the greater the destructiveness? CEO ability and stock price crash risk.

The impact of CEO ability on corporate behavior is dual-faceted. Based on the "rent-seeking hypothesis", this paper focuses on the "dark side" of CEO ability and suggests that CEO ability may hurt corporate behavior. Using the DEA method to measure CEO ability and selecting Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2017 as a sample, we examine the relationship, mechanisms, and boundary conditions between CEO ability and stock price crash risk. Our study finds that CEO ability exacerbates stock price crash risk positively. Mechanism tests based on CEO tenure, agency conflict, and litigation risk reveal that CEO ability intensifies stock price crash risk for alleviating career concerns, seeking private gains, and risk avoidance, supporting the "rent-seeking hypothesis". Boundary condition tests based on internal and external governance environments show that internal control quality and external audit supervision can play a governance role in mitigating the exacerbating effect of CEO ability on stock price crash risk. The conclusions are of significant importance for companies, relevant departments, and global market participants to strengthen governance and supervision to prevent the negative impact of CEO ability on stock prices, thereby promoting the stable development of global financial markets.

Availability and Price Variations of Commonly Used Cardiovascular Medicines at Community and Hospital Pharmacies in Gondar Town, Northwest Ethiopia.

Background: Access to cardiovascular medications is severely hampered by their unavailability and high cost, particularly for the poorest households in developing nations. The availability and price range of cardiovascular medications are significantly limited in both hospital and community pharmacies. Objectives: The aim of this study is to assess the availability and price variations of commonly used cardiovascular medicines in hospital pharmacies in Gondar Town, northwest Ethiopia. Methods: From July 13 to August 6, 2022, a mixed cross-sectional and simulated client survey was carried out at two hospital and 13 community pharmacies in Gondar Town. The analysis and data entry were performed using SPSS Version 25 and EpiData Version 4.2, respectively. The availability and pricing variations of the medications are given as percentages. The significance was examined using paired t tests. Results: On average, community retail pharmacies offered 33.22% of CVD drugs. Aspirin (81 mg), amlodipine (5 mg), atorvastatin (20 mg), and hydrochlorothiazide (25 mg) were the most readily available drugs in community pharmacies. Overall, 28.00% of the hospital pharmacies had available CVD medicines during the course of our analysis. The average cost for the 25 CVD medications in hospital pharmacies was $0.699, with a standard deviation (SD) of 1.513, which was less than the cost at community pharmacies ($2.741 with an SD of 6.015) (p = 0.045). Conclusion: CVD medications were more available in community pharmacies than in hospital pharmacies, although there were fewer CVD medications available than recommended by the WHO/HAI (80%) in both hospital and community pharmacies. There was a statistically significant difference between the two prices. Compared to that at hospital pharmacies, the mean price at community pharmacies was greater.

Economic values of some important traits for smallholder dairy production in Central Ethiopia.

Economic value (EV), sensitivity of EV and relative economic importance of milk yield (MY), age at first calving (AFC), calving interval (CI) and herd life (HL) traits were estimated for smallholder dairy cattle production in the central part of Ethiopia. The data on biological and economic parameters were collected using household interview and group discussions methods participating 238 farmers who had crossbred dairy cattle. Bio-economic model was used to calculate EV, sensitivity of EV and relative importance of EV. Cost of animal feed takes the highest share which accounted 81.35% of the total expenditure. The overall average profit per farmer expressed in Ethiopia currency (ETB, 1 US-$ = 39.55696 ETB) was 72,458.10 ± 5068 per year. Profitability of crossbred dairy cattle significantly varied (P < 0.05) between zones. Economic value estimated for MY, AFC, CI and HL in ETB were 13.38/kg, -16.19/day, -33.58/day and 79.55/day. The associated EV per additive standard deviation were 6083.62, -1311.59, -1271.05 and 117.73 ETB for MY, AFC, CI and HL, respectively. Analysis of sensitivity to scenario change (± 20%) showed that milk price had positive association with profit and EV, whereas feed price has inversely influenced both profit and EV. The profit obtained by farmers was altered by ± 29.08% and ± 12.31% as milk price and feed price fluctuated by ± 20%, respectively. Similarly, the EV of MY was changed by ± 20% with change in milk price and ± 7% with feed price. Scenario change in feed price (± 20%) has also caused ± 13.63% change on EV for AFC and ± 17.58% for CI. It can be noted that profit and EV of the traits were less sensitive to the change in price of milk, feed and labor. In general, the results of EV and profitability were encouraging for dairy farmers and the estimates can be used as an input for development of breeding program in the study area.

Over- and underreporting of prices: most hospitals are not compliant with the Hospital Price Transparency Rule.

Concern has been raised about the effectiveness of the Hospital Price Transparency Rule to facilitate a clear understanding of health care prices due to poor reporting by hospitals. However, the relationship between what services the hospital provides and what prices they report is not clear. We assessed reported prices in the Turquoise Health database and compared them at the hospital level with the CMS Provider of Services File to identify if a shoppable service was provided at a hospital. We found significant mismatch between the hospital prices being reported and the services being provided. For example, 56% of hospitals providing at least 1 shoppable service that requires public price reporting did not report any prices. Of hospitals reporting prices, most hospitals (66%) reported prices for only a portion of the services they provide. In addition, 12% of hospitals reported prices for services they do not provide. Only 6% of hospitals had complete concordance with price reporting and services they actually provide. Current compliance enforcement and penalties do not appear to be adequate to achieve the goals of the Hospital Price Transparency Rule.

Does bride price harm women? Using ethnography to think about causality.

Many institutions claim that bride price - where the groom's family transfers wealth to the bride's family at marriage - harms women. Owing to its long-term engagement with communities that practise bride price, ethnography is well placed to identify causal mechanisms at play in this issue, and there is a substantial literature on its effects in a variety of world regions, including Melanesia. Here, we condense this literature, drawing out key causal arguments made about bride price in various Melanesian societies. This reveals a complex, multi-causal picture: rather than being singularly harmful, bride price may involve a mixture of drawbacks and benefits, making it a double-edged sword with contested implications. Bride price may constrain women's options before and during the marriage but also serves as a safety net that enhances their status. Its effects are probably influenced by many other variables, including age, kinship networks and residence structures. These dynamics have been transformed by conversion to Christianity, the (post-)colonial state, market integration, urbanisation and formal education, often yielding ambiguous outcomes. Rather than reducing ethnography to a collection of datapoints, we show that it can serve as a source of verbal arguments that can be used to challenge reductive narratives about sensitive issues and to formulate hypotheses for testing with quantitative data.

Methods and data needs to estimate the economic market value of livestock at different spatial scales.

Assessing the economic value of livestock such as cattle, goats, sheep, pigs, chickens and fish can offer information about their financial performance and economic importance at farm, national and global scale. Such information is needed for decision-making surrounding livestock finance, investment and strategic development. The aim of this study was to provide an overview of the key livestock valuation methods and associated data requirements. The study was conducted using a literature review. Five key livestock valuation methods were identified and described: historical costs, net current market value, replacement costs, net present value and cost of production. The findings of this study may be of interest to livestock scientists, veterinarians, policy-makers and other stakeholders who aim to assess the economic value of livestock herds. The Global Burden of Animal Diseases programme relied on the outcomes of this study to identify methods for the estimation of the economic value of livestock at the global scale and for its Ethiopia and Indonesia case studies.

L'estimation de la valeur économique des animaux d'élevage (bovins, caprins, ovins, porcins, poulets et poissons d'élevage) peut apporter un éclairage sur leurs performances financières et leur intérêt économique à l'échelle d'une exploitation, d'un pays ou du monde. Ces informations sont indispensables pour étayer les décisions de financement, d'investissement et de développement stratégique des élevages. L'étude présentée par l'autrice vise à donner une vue d'ensemble des principales méthodes d'estimation de la valeur des animaux d'élevage et des exigences qui leur sont associées en termes de données. L'étude repose sur un examen de la littérature sur le sujet. Cinq méthodes principales d'estimation de la valeur des animaux d'élevage y sont répertoriées et décrites : coûts historiques, valeur marchande courante nette, coûts de remplacement, valeur actuelle nette et coûts de production. Les résultats de cette étude pourraient intéresser les spécialistes de l'élevage, les vétérinaires, les décideurs politiques et d'autres parties prenantes qui cherchent à évaluer la valeur économique des cheptels. Le programme " Impact mondial des maladies animales " s'est appuyé sur les résultats de cette étude pour retenir les méthodes d'estimation de la valeur économique des animaux d'élevage appliquées à l'échelle mondiale ainsi que dans les études de cas conduites en Ethiopie et en Indonésie.

Evaluar el valor económico del ganado, como vacas, cabras, ovejas, cerdos, pollos y peces, puede ofrecer información sobre su desempeño financiero y su importancia económica tanto a nivel de la explotación como a escala nacional y mundial. Esta información es necesaria para la toma de decisiones en materia de financiación, inversión y desarrollo estratégico de la ganadería. El objetivo de este estudio era ofrecer una visión general de los principales métodos de valoración del ganado y de las necesidades de datos conexas. Para ello, se llevó a cabo una revisión bibliográfica y se distinguieron y describieron cinco métodos fundamentales de valoración de la ganadería: costes históricos, valor actual de mercado neto, costes de reposición, valor actual neto y costes de producción. Las conclusiones de este estudio pueden ser de interés para científicos que trabajan en el ámbito de la ganadería, veterinarios, responsables de la toma de decisiones y otras partes interesadas en la evaluación del valor económico del ganado. El programa sobre el Impacto Global de las Enfermedades Animales se basó en los resultados de este estudio para definir métodos de estimación del valor económico del ganado a escala mundial y para sus estudios de caso de Etiopía e Indonesia.

Combating foodborne disease through household food handling behavior improvement: A comparison between education and price interventions.

Foodborne disease cases are increasingly occurring in home kitchens because of improper food handling behavior. Human factors are considered major determinants of such behavior, although economic factors, which have attracted little attention, may also be important influencers. Taking the service time of kitchen towels as an example, we construct a theoretical model to analyze food handling behavior under an economic framework and empirically explore its economic determinants. Empirically, we use a randomized controlled trial (RCT) coupled with pre- and postsurveys in rural China. The RCT intervention includes information with tips for proper kitchen towel use and in-kind subsidies of one, two, or three packs of kitchen towels, which is regarded as a price intervention. We find that information alone and information plus one pack of towels are not enough to stimulate behavior improvement, whereas information plus two or three packs is sufficient. This implies that the quantity of kitchen towels used increases only as the towel price drops below a certain threshold. As an early attempt, we indicate that food handling behavior is economically driven, suggesting that a well-designed policy should combine educational campaigns and appropriate economic incentives to improve such behavior to reduce the risk of foodborne disease.

Ethics of Dynamic and Differential Pricing for Cosmetic Procedures.

Patient demand for procedures has increased in the evolving landscape of cosmetic dermatology. This has been fueled, in part, by social media and the growing normalization of cosmetic enhancements; however, this has led some patients to have potentially unrealistic expectations, placing undue pressure on dermatologists to meet these often unrealizable demands. This pressure is further exacerbated by patients who are seen as difficult, demanding, and time-consuming and who may require extensive counseling. Physicians may adopt dynamic or differential pricing strategies to offset the additional time and effort these patients require. We discuss the ethical concerns surrounding these pricing strategies in the cosmetic sphere, highlight the importance of transparency in pricing, and offer suggestions to promote clarity and fairness in cosmetic dermatology practices.

Effects of transparent online open procurement on prices, volumes, and costs of medicines: an interrupted time series study in Ningxia, China.

Objectives: To assess the effects of the transparent online open procurement arrangement on the prices, volumes, and costs of medicines in Ningxia, China. Methods: Data were extracted from the Ningxia pharmaceutical procurement platform, covering 16 months of purchase orders (December 2019 to March 2021) prior to the implementation of the transparent online open procurement policy and 20 months of purchase orders after the implementation of the policy (April 2021 to November 2022). Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis was performed to evaluate the effects of the transparent online open procurement policy on the prices, volumes, and total costs of the purchase orders. Results: After implementation of the transparent online open procurement policy, the average price of purchased medicines showed a declining trend by 0.012 Yuan per month, while the total volume of purchase orders declined at a rate by 1.741 million per month measured by the smallest formulation units and the total costs of the purchase orders decreased at a rate by 5.525 million Yuan per month. Conclusion: The transparent online open procurement policy resulted in reduced prices, lowered volumes, and lowered total costs of purchased orders of medicines.

A Comparative Analysis of International Drug Price Negotiation Frameworks: An Interview Study of Key Stakeholders.

Policy Points Health care systems around the world rely on a range of methods to ensure the affordability of prescription drugs, including negotiating prices soon after drug approval and relying on formal clinical assessments that compare newly approved therapies with existing alternatives. The negotiation framework established under the Inflation Reduction Act is far more limited than other frameworks explored in this study. Adding elements from these frameworks could lead to more effective price negotiation in the United States. CONTEXT: In 2022, Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which allowed Medicare, for the first time, to begin negotiating the prices for certain high-cost brand-name prescription drugs. Many other industrialized countries negotiate drug prices, and we sought to compare and contrast key features of the negotiation process across several health systems. We focused, in particular, on the criteria for selecting drugs for price negotiation, procedures for negotiation, factors that influence negotiated prices, and how prices are implemented. METHODS: We included four G7 countries in our analysis (Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom [England]), two Benelux countries (Belgium and the Netherlands), and one Scandinavian country (Norway) with long-established frameworks for drug price negotiation. We also analyzed the Veterans Affairs Health System in the United States. For each system, we gathered relevant legislation, government publications, and guidelines to understand negotiation frameworks, and we reached out to key drug price negotiators in each system to conduct semistructured interviews. All interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded, and data were analyzed based on an internal assessment tool that we developed. FINDINGS: All eight systems negotiate the prices of brand-name prescription drugs soon after approval and rely on formal clinical assessments that compare newly approved drugs with existing therapies. Systems in our study differed on characteristics such as whether the body performing clinical assessments is separate from the negotiating authority, how added health benefit is assessed, whether explicit willingness-to-pay thresholds are employed, and how specific approaches for priority disease areas are taken. CONCLUSIONS: High-income countries around the world adopt different approaches to conducting price negotiations on brand-name drugs but coalesce around a set of practices that will largely be absent from the current Medicare negotiation framework. US policymakers might consider adding some of these characteristics in the future to improve negotiation outcomes.

Estimating the Economically Justifiable Price of Limited-Duration Treatment with Donanemab for Early Symptomatic Alzheimer's Disease in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: The goal of this economic model is to estimate an economically justifiable price (EJP) for using donanemab for the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the United States based on clinical data from the phase 3 TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2 trial (NCT04437511). METHODS: We adapted an AD Markov state-transition model developed by the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review to estimate the EJP for donanemab at different willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds from the health care system perspective and the societal perspective as co-base cases. RESULTS: Assuming a WTP threshold of $150,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, the model estimates a 1-year (13-dose) EJP for donanemab of $80,538 from the health care system perspective and $91,126 from the societal perspective; at a WTP threshold of $100,000 per QALY gained, the model estimates a 1-year (13-dose) EJP for donanemab of $44,691 from the health care system perspective and $55,419 from the societal perspective. Mean total treatment costs per patient at the $150,000 per QALY gained EJP derived from the health care system perspective were estimated at $77,812 based on the average number of doses of donanemab patients received in the co-base case analysis. One-way sensitivity analysis (OWSA) indicated that treatment efficacy, disease severity at the time of treatment initiation, and duration of treatment effect were the main drivers of the potential EJP. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this modeling simulation informed by the TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2 study support an EJP for limited-duration treatment with donanemab that exceeds per-dose list prices for currently available amyloid-targeting therapies, implying potentially lower lifetime costs and better value for money.

Forecasting and unveiling the impeded factors of total export of Bangladesh using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag and machine learning algorithms.

Rising global oil prices are a major challenge for an emerging oil-importing nation such as Bangladesh. The majority of prior research on the economic effects of an oil price shock has concentrated on developed countries, with emerging economies receiving comparatively less attention. Bangladesh is vulnerable to price shocks due to its rising oil consumption over the past decade. This study aims to investigate how changes in oil prices would affect Bangladesh's total export earnings and to forecast the overall export volume. This study utilized a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to account for the asymmetric behavior of oil prices from 1991 to 2021. To assess the accuracy of predictions, the study employed the Prophet forecasting model and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method. Additionally, the symmetry test revealed a nonlinear relationship between export volume and oil price but a linear relationship between inflation and export volume. According to the NARDL assessment, both positive and negative oil shocks increase export earnings over the long run. The short run summary clarifies that both positive and negative changes in oil prices exert a significant negative effect on exports. Also, Inflation influences export earnings negatively in the short run but positively over the long term. Moreover, using machine learning methods, it was found that the LSTM method outperforms the prophet model in prediction performance with a low root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.88. Also, the analysis revealed policymakers that the export sector requires diversification to reduce its exposure to oil price shocks.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, soaring international energy prices, and implications for global economic policies.

This study examines the economic impact of soaring international energy prices during the Russia-Ukraine conflict from February 23, 2022, to May 31, 2022. Notably, by applying a CGE model, this study offers insights into energy policies at both macroeconomic and industrial levels, emphasizing the model's utility in analyzing complex economic interactions under geopolitical stress. Findings indicate that: (1) Russia, a critical energy-producing country, faced severe economic setbacks due to sanctions, with its GDP contracting by 5.5 %, household income decreasing by 4 %, and consumer spending dropping by 3.5 %. This was accompanied by a significant reduction in domestic investment by 6 %, a decline in output by 5 %, and a decrease in societal welfare indicators. (2) Other energy-producing countries or regions, such as the Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, Australia, Canada, Mexico, and Southeast Asia, experienced economic benefits from the global energy market's "crowding-out effect." These regions saw an increase in GDP ranging from 2 % to 4.5 %, output growth by 3 %-6 %, and household income and consumption improvements by approximately 3 %-5 %. However, these benefits were tempered by a 1 %-2.5 % decline in domestic investment due to rising local energy costs. (3) Developed and developing regions, suffered adverse impacts, including the US, UK, EU, Japan, China, South Asia, Middle Eastern non-oil-producing countries, and Africa. These regions reported a decrease in GDP by 0.5 %-3 %, a decline in household income by 2 %-4 %, and lower consumption rates by 1.5 %-3.5 %. The economic strain was further exacerbated by an inflation increase of up to 2 % across these economies. This research offers valuable insights for governments and policymakers globally to address the challenges posed by the Ukraine crisis-induced energy crisis, underscoring the need for strategic energy policy adjustments and economic resilience planning.