Exploring the sugar-sweetened beverage tax (SSBT) pass-through rate in the Irish hospitality sector.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) supports the use of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes (SSBTs) as a fiscal lever to help reduce sugar consumption and tackle obesity. Obesity is associated with a range of adverse health outcomes. In response to increasing levels of obesity in Ireland, an SSBT was introduced in 2018. Previous research in Ireland has noted that the pass-through rate of the SSBT in retail (off-site consumption) settings was poor. However, to date, no research has examined the SSBT pass-through rate in hospitality (on-site consumption) venues in Ireland. METHODS: This research examines the SSBT pass-through rate on Coca-Cola versus diet versions of Coca-Cola in a convenience sample of 100 hospitality venues in two provincial Irish cities. RESULTS: Wilcoxon signed rank test analysis revealed that regular Coca-Cola was significantly more expensive compared to the price charged for diet versions of Coca-Cola. However, in 85.6% of cases the same price was charged for both full-sugar and sugar-free drinks. The mean pass-through rate of the SSBT was 33.8%. CONCLUSION: The effective functioning of the SSBT is premised on persistent price differences between soft drink prices based on sugar content. However, this is barely evident in the hospitality sector in Ireland. A number of recommendations are suggested, including both increasing the SSBT, and increasing it annually in line with inflation.

The effects of health-related food taxes on the environmental impact of consumer food purchases: secondary analysis of data from a randomised controlled trial in a virtual supermarket.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the effects of health-related food taxes on the environmental impact of consumer food purchases in a virtual supermarket. DESIGN: This is a secondary analysis of data from a randomised controlled trial in which participants were randomly assigned to a control condition with regular food prices (n 152), an experimental condition with a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax (n 131) or an experimental condition with a nutrient profiling tax based on Nutri-Score (n 112). Participants were instructed to undertake their typical weekly grocery shopping for their households. Primary outcome measures were three environmental impact indicators: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, land use and blue water use per household per week. Data were analysed using linear regression analyses. SETTING: Three-dimensional virtual supermarket. PARTICIPANTS: Dutch adults (≥ 18 years) who were responsible for grocery shopping in their household (n 395). RESULTS: GHG emissions (-7·6 kg CO2-eq; 95 % CI -12·7, -2·5) and land use (-3·9 m2/year; 95 % CI -7·7, -0·2) were lower for the food purchases of participants in the nutrient profiling tax condition than for those in the control condition. Blue water use was not affected by the nutrient profiling tax. Moreover, the SSB tax had no significant effect on any of the environmental impact indicators. CONCLUSIONS: A nutrient profiling tax based on Nutri-Score reduced the environmental impact of consumer food purchases. An SSB tax did not affect the environmental impact in this study.

Attitudes of Chinese residents toward sugar-sweetened beverage tax and their willingness to pay: a cross-sectional survey.

Background: Excessive consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with increased risks of obesity and chronic diseases. To effectively control SSB consumption, several countries including Mexico, France, and the United Kingdom have implemented SSB taxes. However, research on SSB taxes in China is limited. Objective: To assess the attitudes of Chinese residents toward the SSB tax and their willingness to pay the tax. Methods: Data were collected through a questionnaire survey among 881 respondents. The generalized ordered logit regression model and marginal effect analysis were used to analyze Chinese participants' attitudes toward SSB tax and their willingness to pay it. Results: The average monthly expenditure on SSBs was 44.8 ± 45.3 Yuan (RMB) (6.95 ± 7.02$), and 54.6% of residents supported the SSB tax; they were willing to pay, on average, 1.19 times the original price after additional tax. Age, physical exercise, self-rated health status, weight control plan, awareness of SSBs, children's consumption of SSBs, and proximity to the nearest SSB outlet significantly influenced attitudes toward tax. Notably, SSB awareness had the greatest effect on tax attitudes, with a 17% increase in the probability of supporting SSB tax for every one-level increase in SSB awareness among residents. Conclusion: Residents in China have attained a certain level of awareness of, support for, and willingness to pay SSB tax. However, promoting knowledge about the health effects of SSBs and conducting further research to evaluate the effect of SSB tax on obesity prevention in China is still essential.

Should We Worry About Spillover Effects of Sugar Sweetened Beverage Taxation Policies? Comment on "Understanding Marketing Responses to a Tax on Sugary Drinks: A Qualitative Interview Study in the United Kingdom, 2019".

Taxes on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been widely implemented and heralded as a panacea in reversing the growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Using a qualitative research methodology, Forde et al explored how sugary drink companies respond to changes in taxation positing that relative effectiveness of sugar taxes will not only depend on how prices are affected, and how consumers respond, but also how producers respond by reformulating their products or engaging in counteractive marketing strategies. They argue that these responses may undermine the public health goal. We discuss some of the key issues that arise in their paper and conclude that company responses may not be sufficient in undermining the public health goal, and that consumption of sugary drinks fall after imposition of taxes, though demand is inelastic. We argue that inelasticity of demand for SSB may require a combination of interventions to sufficiently reduce excess consumption of sugar drinks.

An examination of Ireland's sugar sweetened beverage tax (sugar tax) in practice.

BACKGROUND: In the face of rising obesity levels, Ireland introduced a sugar sweetened beverage tax (SSBT) in 2018, the scope of which was extended in 2019. To date, there is a dearth of research on the actual impact of the SSBT on the pricing. METHOD: This study involved an examination of the relative cost of leading brand full-sugar and sugar-free carbonated soft drinks in a convenience sample of 14 different Irish supermarkets. In light of manufacturers' reformulation of certain brands (7UP, Sprite and Fanta), information was collected on the relative in-store pricing of three brands (Coca Cola, Pepsi and Club). RESULTS: In-store comparisons of equivalent size and unit number indicate that, in ~60% of cases, the full-sugar and sugar-free versions of the same drink are being offered at the same price. Even when full-sugar versions of these brands were more expensive than the sugar-free alternatives, the price differential was sometimes less than the SSBT rate. CONCLUSIONS: The pass-through rate of the SSBT to consumers is sub-optimal. Future policy and research suggestions are outlined.

The effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax and a nutrient profiling tax based on Nutri-Score on consumer food purchases in a virtual supermarket: a randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax and a nutrient profiling tax on consumer food purchases in a virtual supermarket. DESIGN: A randomised controlled trial was conducted with a control condition with regular food prices (n 152), an SSB tax condition (n 130) and a nutrient profiling tax condition based on Nutri-Score (n 112). Participants completed a weekly grocery shop for their household. Primary outcome measures were SSB purchases (ordinal variable) and the overall healthiness of the total shopping basket (proportion of total unit food items classified as healthy). The secondary outcome measure was the energy (kcal) content of the total shopping basket. Data were analysed using regression analyses. SETTING: Three-dimensional virtual supermarket. PARTICIPANTS: Dutch adults aged ≥18 years are being responsible for grocery shopping in their household (n 394). RESULTS: The SSB tax (OR = 1·62, (95 % CI 1·03, 2·54)) and the nutrient profiling tax (OR = 1·88, (95 %CI 1·17, 3·02)) increased the likelihood of being in a lower-level category of SSB purchases. The overall healthiness of the total shopping basket was higher (+2·7 percent point, (95 % CI 0·1, 5·3)), and the energy content was lower (-3301 kcal, (95 % CI -6425, -177)) for participants in the nutrient profiling tax condition than for those in the control condition. The SSB tax did not affect the overall healthiness and energy content of the total shopping basket (P > 0·05). CONCLUSIONS: A nutrient profiling tax targeting a wide range of foods and beverages with a low nutritional quality seems to have larger beneficial effects on consumer food purchases than taxation of SSB alone.

An Analysis of the Adoption and Implementation of A Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax in South Africa: A Multiple Streams Approach.

This paper describes a case study of the adoption and implementation of the sugar-sweetened beverage tax in South Africa, termed the Health Promotion Levy. Qualitative data extraction and analysis of institutional documents, such as policy proposals and parliamentary debate records, stakeholder submissions to Parliament and media reports, were guided by the Kingdon Multiple Streams Theory as adapted to study agenda setting, policy adoption, and implementation. We present the following key findings: First, consistent messaging from policy entrepreneurs, consisting of advocacy groups, health organizations, and research entities, was key to ensuring that a tax policy solution was proposed and passed. Second, the continuity of certain key policymakers contributed to the relatively expedient passage of the tax policy. Third, the use of an excise tax was, amongst others, an appealing policy solution because of its revenue-raising potential; however, uncertainty regarding the purpose of the tax negatively impacted public attitudes toward it. Fourth, industry arguments, relating to unemployment, were effective in restructuring the tax in favor of industry actors. Finally, regulatory action by sectors outside of finance and health impacted stakeholder perceptions of the tax and possibly obstructed regular annual adjustments for inflation.

Barriers to, and facilitators of, the adoption of a sugar sweetened beverage tax to prevent non-communicable diseases in Uganda: a policy landscape analysis.

BACKGROUND: Uganda is experiencing an increase in nutrition-related non-communicable diseases. Risk factors include overconsumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. Fiscal and taxation policies aim to make the consumption of healthier foods easier. However, the adoption and implementation of fiscal policies by countries are constrained by political and economic challenges. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the policy and political landscape related to the prevention of nutrition-related non-communicable diseases in Uganda to identify barriers to and facilitators of the adoption of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in Uganda. METHODS: A desk-based policy analysis of policies related to nutrition-related non-communicable diseases and sugar-sweetened beverage taxation was conducted. Four key informant consultations (n = 4) were conducted to verify the policy review and to gain further insight into the policy and stakeholder contexts. Analysis was framed by Kingdon's theory of agenda setting and policy change. RESULTS: Nutrition-related non-communicable diseases were recognised as an emerging problem in Uganda. The Government has adopted a comprehensive approach to improve diets, but implementation is slow. There is limited recognition of the consumption of sugar and sugar-sweetened beverages as a contributor to the nutrition-related non-communicable disease burden in policy documents. Existing taxes on soft drinks are lower than the World Health Organization's recommended rate of 20% and do not target sugar content. The soft drink industry has been influential in framing the taxation debate, and the Ministry of Finance previously reduced taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages. Maintaining competitiveness in a regional market is an important business strategy. However, the Ministry of Health and other public health actors in civil society have been successful (albeit marginally) in countering reductions in taxation, which are supported by industry. CONCLUSIONS: An established platform for sugar-sweetened beverage taxation advocacy exists in Uganda. Compelling local research that explicitly links soft drink taxes to health goals is essential to advance sugar-sweetened beverage taxation.

Oakland's Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax: Honoring the "Spirit" of the Ordinance Toward Equitable Implementation.

Purpose: On November 8, 2016, Oakland, California, voters passed a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax, which included language to support programs affecting communities and residents most affected by SSB-related health disparities. The purpose of this study was to qualitatively assess the extent to which those communities most affected by SSB-related health disparities were included in implementation decisions and were recipients of funding to support their needs. Methods: A longitudinal case study from 2016 to 2019 in Oakland, CA, explored equity implementation themes through key informant interview transcripts (n=15) triangulated with media (n=90) and archived documents (n=43). Using principals of constant comparative analysis, all documents (n=148) were coded and thematically analyzed in Atlas.ti. Results: SSB taxes-designed to support communities disproportionately impacted by SSB consumption-can be implemented with inclusivity and community representation. The Oakland ordinance established a Community Advisory Board (CAB) that partnered with community organizations throughout implementation to ensure inclusivity and recommend funding for programs to address health inequities, described as the "spirit" of the ordinance. These activities countered the beverage industry's tactics to target lower income communities of color with misinformation campaigns and hinder implementation. Conclusion: A clearly written ordinance provides guidance, which affords an intentional and legal foundation for implementation processes. Establishing a CAB can mitigate inequities as members are invested in the community and initiatives to support residents. Advisory boards are able to liaise between city and local partners, which is a powerful tool for countering opposition campaigns, reaching lower income and communities of color, and ensuring adherence to funding mandates.

Industry strategies in the parliamentary process of adopting a sugar-sweetened beverage tax in South Africa: a systematic mapping.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, the South African government became the first in the African region to announce the introduction of an SSB tax based on sugar content as a public health measure to reduce obesity. This tax was introduced against the backdrop of South Africa having a large sugar production and SSB manufacturing industry, as well as very high unemployment rates. The introduction of fiscal measures, such as a SSB tax, has been met with well-coordinated and funded opposition in other countries. METHODS: The aim of this study is to describe and analyse the arguments and strategies utilised by industry during policymaking processes to oppose regulatory actions in LMIC. This study analyses arguments and strategies used by the beverage and related industries during the public consultation phase of the process to adopt the South African SSB tax. RESULTS: Industry opposition to the SSB tax was comprehensive and employed several tactics. First, industry underscored its economic importance and the potential job losses and other economic harms that may arise from the tax. This argument was well-received by policymakers, and similar to industry tactics employed in other middle income countries like Mexico. Second, industry discussed self-regulation and voluntary measures as a form of policy substitution, which mirrors industry responses in the US, the Caribbean and Latin America. Third, industry misused or disputed evidence to undermine the perceived efficacy of the tax. Finally, considerations for small business and their ability to compete with multi-national corporations were a unique feature of industry response. CONCLUSIONS: Industry opposition followed both general trends, and also introduced nuanced and context-specific arguments. The industry response experienced in South Africa can be instructive for other countries contemplating the introduction of similar measures.

What's on the Menu? Policies to Reduce Young People's Sugar Consumption.

Young people in the UK consume far above the maximum recommended levels of added sugar. It is likely that neither they nor their parents fully take account of the future health, social and economic costs of this high sugar consumption. This provides a rationale for policy intervention. The majority of young people's added sugar consumption occurs in the home, where purchases are typically made by parents. This means that understanding the purchase decisions of adults is important for policy design, even if the policies aim to reduce the consumption of young people. We discuss the merits of popular policies, including taxes, advertising restrictions and restrictions on the availability of specific foods, and we identify promising avenues for future research.

Framing and signalling effects of taxes on sugary drinks: A discrete choice experiment among households in Great Britain.

Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are in place in many countries to combat obesity with emerging evidence that these are effective in reducing purchases of SSBs. In this study, we tested whether signalling and framing the price increase from an SSB tax explicitly as a health-related, earmarked measure reduces the demand for SSBs more than an equivalent price increase. We measured the demand for non-alcoholic beverages with a discrete choice experiment (DCE) administered online to a randomly selected group of n = 603 households with children in Great Britain (GB) who regularly purchase SSBs. We find a suggestive evidence that a price increase leads to a larger reduction in the probability of choosing SSBs when it is signalled as a tax and framed as a health-related and earmarked policy. Respondents who did not support a tax on SSBs, who were also more likely to choose SSBs in the first place, were on average more responsive to a price increase framed as an earmarked tax than those who supported the tax. The predictive validity of the DCE, to capture preferences for beverages, was confirmed using actual purchase data. The findings imply that a well-signalled and earmarked tax on SSBs could improve its effectiveness at reducing the demand.

Impact of sugar-sweetened beverage tax on dental caries: a simulation analysis.

BACKGROUND: The tiered sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax was implemented in Thailand to encourage industries to reduce sugar content in beverages, and consequently reduce sugar consumption in the population. The aim of the study is to explore the expected impact of the new SSB tax policy in Thailand, a middle-income country in Asia, and other alternative policies on oral health outcomes as measured by the prevalence and severity of dental caries among the Thai population. METHODS: A qualitative system dynamics model that captures the complex interrelationships among SSB tax, sugar consumption and dental caries, was elicited through participatory stakeholder engagement. Based on the qualitative model, a quantitative system dynamics model was developed to simulate the SSB tax policy and other alternative scenarios in order to evaluate their impact on dental caries among Thai adults from 2010 to 2040. RESULTS: Under the base-case scenario, the dental caries prevalence among the Thai population 15 years and older, is projected to increase from 61.3% in 2010 to 74.9% by 2040. Implementation of SSB tax policy is expected to decrease the prevalence of dental caries by only 1% by 2040, whereas the aggressive policy is projected to decrease prevalence of dental caries by 21% by 2040. CONCLUSIONS: In countries where a majority of the sugar consumed is from non-tax sugary food and beverages, especially Asian countries where street food culture is ubiquitous and contributes disproportionately to sugar intake, SSB tax alone is unlikely to have meaningful impact on oral health unless it is accompanied with a comprehensive public health policy that aims to reduce total sugar intake from non-SSB sources.

Sugar-sweetened beverage prices: Variations by beverage, food store, and neighborhood characteristics, 2017.

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. A number of U.S. jurisdictions have levied volume-based specific SSB taxes. This study estimated baseline mean SSB prices across categories and sizes as this will help to determine the percentage increase in price resulting from the imposition of specific taxes. Data on food store SSB prices were collected in 2017 in Cook County, IL, St. Louis City/County, MO, Oakland, CA, and Sacramento, CA (N = 11,767 product-level observations from 581 stores). Data were weighted to represent volume sold by category and size. Mean prices per ounce were computed across categories and sizes. Linear regression models, clustered on store, were run to estimate associations between price per ounce and product characteristics, neighborhood (linked by census tract) characteristics, store type, and site. Weighted summary statistics show that the mean price of SSBs was 4.8 cents/oz. Soda was least expensive (3.4 cents/oz), followed by sports drinks (4.8 cents/oz), juice drinks (5.2 cents/oz), ready-to-drink tea/coffee (7.8 cents/oz), and energy drinks (19.9 cents/oz). Prices were higher for individual-sized (9.6 cents/oz) compared to family-sized drinks (>1 L/multi-pack; 3.5 cents/oz). Regression results revealed that prices were lower in stores in majority non-Hispanic black tracts and varied by beverage characteristics and store type but not tract-level socioeconomic status. Given substantial variation in prices by SSB category, a penny-per-ounce SSB tax, if fully passed through, would increase soda prices by 29% versus 5% for energy drinks, highlighting the potential importance of different specific tax rates across beverage categories.

A guide to policy analysis as a research method.

Policy analysis provides a way for understanding how and why governments enact certain policies, and their effects. Public health policy research is limited and lacks theoretical underpinnings. This article aims to describe and critique different approaches to policy analysis thus providing direction for undertaking policy analysis in the field of health promotion. Through the use of an illustrative example in nutrition it aims to illustrate the different approaches. Three broad orientations to policy analysis are outlined: (i) Traditional approaches aim to identify the 'best' solution, through undertaking objective analyses of possible solutions. (ii) Mainstream approaches focus on the interaction of policy actors in policymaking. (iii) Interpretive approaches examine the framing and representation of problems and how policies reflect the social construction of 'problems'. Policy analysis may assist understanding of how and why policies to improve nutrition are enacted (or rejected) and may inform practitioners in their advocacy. As such, policy analysis provides researchers with a powerful tool to understand the use of research evidence in policymaking and generate a heightened understanding of the values, interests and political contexts underpinning policy decisions. Such methods may enable more effective advocacy for policies that can lead to improvements in health.

Partisan Responses to Public Health Messages: Motivated Reasoning and Sugary Drink Taxes.

This study examines the public's motivated reasoning of competitive messages about sugary drink taxes, a public health policy approach attempted with some recent success in the United States. In an experiment embedded in a nationally representative survey fielded in the fall of 2012, we randomized participants (N = 5,147) to receive one of four messages: control, a strong protax message, a two-sided message, or a message refuting arguments made in soda company antitax messages. The protax message showed no effects on tax support, while the two-sided message depressed Republicans' support. The refutation message boosted independents' support but produced backlash among Republicans. This motivated response was pronounced among Republicans who were plausibly previously exposed to the sugary drink tax debate. These findings reinforce the communication challenges in an increasingly politicized US health policy discourse.

SSB taxes and diet quality in US preschoolers: estimated changes in the 2010 Healthy Eating Index.

BACKGROUND: Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been proposed as a strategy to combat child obesity. Yet it is unclear how a tax on SSBs might influence the overall quality of diet in preschool children. Thus, we use simulated price increases and the 2010 Healthy Eating Index (HEI-2010) to explore the relationship between SSB taxes and diet quality in preschool children. METHODS: Price and purchase data from the 2009-2012 Nielsen Homescan Panel and a two-part marginal effects model were used to estimate relative changes in purchases with a 20% increase in the price of SSBs. Demand elasticities were applied to dietary intake data for children ages 2-5 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2009-2010 and 2011-2012) to estimate the impact of a 20% SSB tax on dietary intake and quality (HEI-2010). RESULTS: A 20% increase in the price of SSBs was associated with lower total caloric intake (-28 kcal d-1 , p < 0.01), caloric intake from juice drinks (-20 kcal d-1 , p < 0.01), added sugars (-4.1 servings d-1 , p = 0.03), refined grains (-0.63 servings d-1 , p < 0.01) and total meat (-0.56 servings d-1 , p < 0.01). Beneficial decreases in empty calories and refined grains were offset by unfavourable changes in fatty acid profile, total protein, vegetables and fruit, such that total HEI scores (0-100 range) were not meaningfully changed with a 20% increase in SSB price (difference: -0.85, p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: A 20% tax on SSBs could decrease caloric intake, and intakes of added sugars and SSBs, but may not improve diet quality as an isolated intervention among US preschool children.

Sugar and health in South Africa: Potential challenges to leveraging policy change.

A growing body of evidence indicates that excessive sugar consumption is driving epidemics of obesity and related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) around the world. South Africa (SA), a major consumer of sugar, is also the third most obese country in Africa, and 40% of all deaths in the country result from NCDs. A number of fiscal, regulatory, and legislative levers could reduce sugar consumption in SA. This paper focuses on a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax. The purpose of the paper is to highlight the challenges that government might anticipate. Policies cannot be enacted in a vacuum and discussion is focused on the industrial, economic, and societal context. The affected industry actors have been part of the SA economy for over a century and remain influential. To deflect attention, the sugar industry can be expected either to advocate for self-regulation or to promote public-private partnerships. This paper cautions against both approaches as evidence suggests that they will be ineffective in curbing the negative health impacts caused by excessive sugar consumption. In summary, policy needs to be introduced with a political strategy sensitive to the various interests at stake. In particular, the sugar industry can be expected to be resistant to the introduction of any type of tax on SSBs.

By Ounce or By Calorie: The Differential Effects of Alternative Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Strategies.

The obesity epidemic and excessive consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages have led to proposals of economics-based interventions to promote healthy eating in the United States. Targeted food and beverage taxes and subsidies are prominent examples of such potential intervention strategies. This paper examines the differential effects of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages by calories and by ounces on beverage demand. To properly measure the extent of substitution and complementarity between beverage products, we developed a fully modified distance metric model of differentiated product demand that endogenizes the cross-price effects. We illustrated the proposed methodology in a linear approximate almost ideal demand system, although other flexible demand systems can also be used. In the empirical application using supermarket scanner data, the product-level demand model consists of 178 beverage products with combined market share of over 90%. The novel demand model outperformed the conventional distance metric model in non-nested model comparison tests and in terms of the economic significance of model predictions. In the fully modified model, a calorie-based beverage tax was estimated to cost $1.40 less in compensating variation than an ounce-based tax per 3,500 beverage calories reduced. This difference in welfare cost estimates between two tax strategies is more than three times as much as the difference estimated by the conventional distance metric model. If applied to products purchased from all sources, a 0.04-cent per kcal tax on sugar-sweetened beverages is predicted to reduce annual per capita beverage intake by 5,800 kcal.

Predicting the Effects of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes on Food and Beverage Demand in a Large Demand System.

A censored Exact Affine Stone Index incomplete demand system is estimated for 23 packaged foods and beverages and a numéraire good. Instrumental variables are used to control for endogenous prices. A half-cent per ounce increase in sugar-sweetened beverage prices is predicted to reduce total calories from the 23 foods and beverages but increase sodium and fat intakes as a result of product substitution. The predicted decline in calories is larger for low-income households than for high-income households, although welfare loss is also higher for low-income households. Neglecting price endogeneity or estimating a conditional demand model significantly overestimates the calorie reduction.