Adaptational lag to temperature in valley oak (Quercus lobata) can be mitigated by genome-informed assisted gene flow.

Climate change over the next century is predicted to cause widespread maladaptation in natural systems. This prediction, as well as many sustainable management and conservation practices, assumes that species are adapted to their current climate. However, this assumption is rarely tested. Using a large-scale common garden experiment combined with genome-wide sequencing, we found that valley oak (Quercus lobata), a foundational tree species in California ecosystems, showed a signature of adaptational lag to temperature, with fastest growth rates occurring at cooler temperatures than populations are currently experiencing. Future warming under realistic emissions scenarios was predicted to lead to further maladaptation to temperature and reduction in growth rates for valley oak. We then identified genotypes predicted to grow relatively fast under warmer temperatures and demonstrated that selecting seed sources based on their genotype has the potential to mitigate predicted negative consequences of future climate warming on growth rates in valley oak. These results illustrate that the belief of local adaptation underlying many management and conservation practices, such as using local seed sources for restoration, may not hold for some species. If contemporary adaptational lag is commonplace, we will need new approaches to help alleviate predicted negative consequences of climate warming on natural systems. We present one such approach, "genome-informed assisted gene flow," which optimally matches individuals to future climates based on genotype-phenotype-environment associations.

Effect of growth temperature on photosynthetic capacity and respiration in three ecotypes of Eriophorum vaginatum.

Ecotypic differentiation in the tussock-forming sedge Eriophorum vaginatum has led to the development of populations that are locally adapted to climate in Alaska's moist tussock tundra. As a foundation species, E. vaginatum plays a central role in providing topographic and microclimatic variation essential to these ecosystems, but a changing climate could diminish the importance of this species. As Arctic temperatures have increased, there is evidence of adaptational lag in E. vaginatum, as locally adapted ecotypes now exhibit reduced population growth rates. Whether there is a physiological underpinning to adaptational lag is unknown. Accordingly, this possibility was investigated in reciprocal transplant gardens. Tussocks of E. vaginatum from sites separated by ~1° latitude (Coldfoot: 67°15'N, Toolik Lake: 68°37', Sagwon: 69°25') were transplanted into the Toolik Lake and Sagwon sites and exposed to either an ambient or an experimental warming treatment. Five tussocks pertreatment combination were measured at each garden to determine photosynthetic capacity (i.e., Vcmax and Jmax) and dark respiration rate (Rd) at measurement temperatures of 15, 20, and 25°C. Photosynthetic enhancements or homeostasis were observed for all ecotypes at both gardens under increased growth temperature, indicating no negative effect of elevated temperature on photosynthetic capacity. Further, no evidence of thermal acclimation in Rd was observed for any ecotype, and there was little evidence of ecotypic variation in Rd. As such, no physiological contribution to adaptational lag was observed given the increase in growth temperature (up to ~2°C) provided by this study. Despite neutral to positive effects of increased growth temperature on photosynthesis in E. vaginatum, it appears to confer no lasting advantage to the species.

Northward displacement of optimal climate conditions for ecotypes of Eriophorum vaginatum L. across a latitudinal gradient in Alaska.

Plants are often genetically specialized as ecotypes attuned to local environmental conditions. When conditions change, the optimal environment may be physically displaced from the local population, unless dispersal or in situ evolution keep pace, resulting in a phenomenon called adaptational lag. Using a 30-year-old reciprocal transplant study across a 475 km latitudinal gradient, we tested the adaptational lag hypothesis by measuring both short-term (tiller population growth rates) and long-term (17-year survival) fitness components of Eriophorum vaginatum ecotypes in Alaska, where climate change may have already displaced the optimum. Analyzing the transplant study as a climate transfer experiment, we showed that the climate optimum for plant performance was displaced ca. 140 km north of home sites, although plants were not generally declining in size at home sites. Adaptational lag is expected to be widespread globally for long-lived, ecotypically specialized plants, with disruptive consequences for communities and ecosystems.