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1.
J Environ Sci (China) ; 147: 50-61, 2025 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39003066

RESUMEN

With the increasing severity of arsenic (As) pollution, quantifying the environmental behavior of pollutant based on numerical model has become an important approach to determine the potential impacts and finalize the precise control strategies. Taking the industrial-intensive Jinsha River Basin as typical area, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic water quality model coupled with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was developed to accurately simulate the watershed-scale distribution and transport of As in the terrestrial and aquatic environment at high spatial and temporal resolution. The effects of hydro-climate change, hydropower station construction and non-point source emissions on As were quantified based on the coupled model. The result indicated that higher As concentration areas mainly centralized in urban districts and concentration slowly decreased from upstream to downstream. Due to the enhanced rainfall, the As concentration was significantly higher during the rainy season than the dry season. Hydro-climate change and the construction of hydropower station not only affected the dissolved As concentration, but also affected the adsorption and desorption of As in sediment. Furthermore, As concentration increased with the input of non-point source pollution, with the maximum increase about 30%, resulting that non-point sources contributed important pollutant impacts to waterways. The coupled model used in pollutant behavior analysis is general with high potential application to predict and mitigate water pollution.


Asunto(s)
Arsénico , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Ríos , Contaminantes Químicos del Agua , Arsénico/análisis , China , Contaminantes Químicos del Agua/análisis , Ríos/química , Monitoreo del Ambiente/métodos , Modelos Químicos , Modelos Teóricos
2.
Rev. biol. trop ; 72(1): e53860, ene.-dic. 2024. graf
Artículo en Inglés | LILACS, SaludCR | ID: biblio-1559318

RESUMEN

Abstract Introduction: Leptodactylus latinasus and Physalaemus cuqui are sympatric anuran species with similar environmental requirements and contrasting reproductive modes. Climatic configuration determines distribution patterns and promotes sympatry of environmental niches, but specificity/selectivity determines the success of reproductive modes. Species distribution models (SDM) are a valuable tool to predict spatio-temporal distributions based on the extrapolation of environmental predictors. Objectives: To determine the spatio-temporal distribution of environmental niches and assess whether the protected areas of the World Database of Protected Areas (WDPA) allow the conservation of these species in the current scenario and future. Methods: We applied different algorithms to predict the distribution and spatio-temporal overlap of environmental niches of L. latinasus and P. cuqui within South America in the last glacial maximum (LGM), middle-Holocene, current and future scenarios. We assess the conservation status of both species with the WDPA conservation units. Results: All applied algorithms showed high performance for both species (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). The L. latinasus predictions showed wide environmental niches from LGM to the current scenario (49 % stable niches, 37 % gained niches, and 13 % lost niches), suggesting historical fidelity to stable climatic-environmental regions. In the current-future transition, L. latinasus would increase the number of stable (70 %) and lost (20 %) niches, suggesting fidelity to lowland regions and a possible trend toward microendemism. P. cuqui loses environmental niches from the LGM to the current scenario (25 %) and in the current-future transition (63 %), increasing the environmental sympathy between both species; 31 % spatial overlap in the current scenario and 70 % in the future. Conclusion: Extreme drought events and rainfall variations, derived from climate change, suggest the loss of environmental niches for these species that are not currently threatened but are not adequately protected by conservation units. The loss of environmental niches increases spatial sympatry which represents a new challenge for anurans and the conservation of their populations.


Resumen Introducción: Leptodactylus latinasus y Physalaemus cuqui son especies de anuros simpátricos con requerimientos ambientales similares y modos reproductivos contrastantes. La configuración climática determina los patrones de distribución y promueve la simpatría de los nichos ambientales, pero la especificidad/selectividad determina el éxito de los modos reproductivos. Los modelos de distribución de especies (MDE) son una herramienta valiosa para predecir distribuciones espacio-temporales basadas en la extrapolación de predictores ambientales. Objetivos: Determinar la distribución espacio-temporal de los nichos ambientales y evaluar si las áreas protegidas de la base de Datos Mundial de Áreas Protegidas (DMAP) permiten la conservación de estas especies en el escenario actual y futuro. Métodos: Aplicamos diferentes algoritmos para predecir la distribución y superposición espacio-temporal de nichos ambientales de L. latinasus y P. cuqui dentro de América del Sur en el último máximo glacial (UGM), Holoceno medio, actual y futuro. Evaluamos el estado de conservación de ambas especies con las unidades de conservación de la DMAP. Resultados: Todos los algoritmos aplicados mostraron un alto rendimiento para ambas especies (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). Las predicciones de L. latinasus mostraron amplios nichos ambientales desde LGM hasta el escenario actual (49 % de nichos estables, 37 % de nichos ganados y 13 % de nichos perdidos), sugiriendo fidelidad histórica por regiones climático-ambientales estables. En la transición actual-futura L. latinasus incrementaría la cantidad de nichos estables (70 %) y perdidos (20 %), sugiriendo fidelidad por regiones de tierras bajas y la posible tendencia hacia el microendemismo. P. cuqui pierde nichos ambientales desde el LGM al escenario actual (25 %) y en la transición actual-futura (63 %), incrementando la simpatría ambiental entre ambas especies; 31 % de superposición espacial en el escenario actual y 70 % en el futuro. Conclusión: Los eventos de sequía extrema y las variaciones de precipitaciones, derivados del cambio climático, sugieren la pérdida de nichos ambientales para estas especies, actualmente no se encuentran amenazadas, pero no están adecuadamente protegidas por las unidades de conservación. La pérdida de nichos ambientales aumenta la simpatría espacial que representa un nuevo desafío para estos anuros y la conservación de sus poblaciones.


Asunto(s)
Animales , Anuros/clasificación , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , América del Sur , Cambio Climático
3.
Environ Res ; 263(Pt 2): 120102, 2024 Oct 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39366443

RESUMEN

There is interest in assessing the potential climate mitigation benefit of coastal wetlands based on the balance between their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and carbon sequestration. Here we investigated soil GHG fluxes (CO2 and CH4) on mangroves of the Brazilian Amazon coast, and across common land use impacts including shrimp farms and a pasture. We found greater methane fluxes near the Amazon River mouth (1439 to 3312 µg C m-2 h-1), which on average are equivalent to 37% of mangrove C sequestration in the region. Soil CO2 fluxes were predominant in mangrove forests to the East of the Amazon Delta. Land use change shifted mangroves from C sinks (mean sequestration of 12.2 ± 1.4 Mg CO2e ha-1 yr-1) to net GHG sources (mean loss of 8.0 ± 3.3 Mg CO2e ha-1 yr-1). Our data suggests that mangrove forests in the Amazon can aid decreasing the net annual emissions in the Brazilian forest sector in 9.7 ± 0.8 Tg CO2e yr-1 through forest conservation and avoided deforestation.

4.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 23145, 2024 Oct 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39367031

RESUMEN

Heatwaves (HWs) pose a severe threat to human and ecological systems. Here we assess the projected changes in heatwaves over Latin America using bias corrected high-resolution regional climate simulations under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs). Heatwaves are projected to be more frequent, long-lasting, and intense in the mid-century under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with severe increases under the RCP8.5 scenario. Even under the low emissions scenario of RCP2.6, the frequency of heatwaves doubles over most of the region. A three- to tenfold rise in population exposure to heatwave days is projected over Central and South America, with climate change playing a dominant role in driving these changes. Results show that following the low emission pathway would reduce 57% and 50% of heatwave exposure for Central and South American regions respectively, highlighting the need to control anthropogenic emissions and implement sustainable practices.

5.
Confl Health ; 18(1): 59, 2024 Oct 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39367467

RESUMEN

This commentary explores the intersection between climate, conflict, and child nutrition, highlighting the severe child nutrition crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa exacerbated by climate change and ongoing conflicts. Shifting climate patterns disrupt agricultural productivity and food security, while persistent conflicts displace populations and destroy infrastructure, significantly increasing food insecurity and malnutrition among children. Recent UNICEF data indicates that 1 in 4 children globally live in severe food poverty, with those affected up to 50% more likely to suffer from life-threatening malnutrition. Over half a billion children reside in areas prone to climate-related extreme weather events, challenging food production, distribution, and access. Extreme weather events have led to crop failures, food shortages, and price spikes, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns also alter the nutritional content of crops, worsening nutritional challenges. Conflicts in SSA have led to a food crisis of unprecedented scale, with over 80% of the 137 million Africans facing acute food insecurity located in conflict-affected countries. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has further disrupted global food and fertilizer supply chains, exacerbating food shortages and inflation in many African countries. Addressing this crisis requires a multifaceted approach integrating evidence-based, cost-effective strategies. This commentary advocates for the adoption of the 3 C approach-climate-smart school feeding programs, cultivation of edible insects, and community-based food hubs-as solutions to enhance child nutrition and build climate resilience.

6.
J Therm Biol ; 125: 103985, 2024 Sep 30.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39368168

RESUMEN

Assessing the adaptability of slow-growing rural chickens for improving thermotolerance to suit the global climate change is a major research need. This work was aimed to evaluate the adaptability of CARI-Debendra chickens and to identify the polymorphism as well as expression profiling of thermotolerant genes (HSP70 and GRP78) under prevailing temperature-humidity indices and thermal stress in a coastal environment. One hundred sixty straight run chicks were reared at THI≥75 (control) and THI>80 under coastal climate till 12 weeks. Polymorphism of HSP70 and GRP78 candidate genes were explored using restriction enzymes TaqI and HaeIII to identify possible thermotolerance markers. Expression profiling of both the genes in liver, intestine and pectoralis muscle was determined through quantitative real-time PCR. Rectal and body surface temperature recorded in the neck and back showed significant differences (P < 0.01) with higher temperature in THI>80 group. Comparatively lower live weights (P < 0.05) and poor FCR were recorded in THI>80 group. The villi height in all intestinal segments was significantly lower (P < 0.01), but deeper crypt depth was observed in THI>80 than control group. A lowest thymus weight (P < 0.05) was noted with no significant differences in immune response in treatment group. Serum levels of cholesterol, activities of lactate dehydrogenase, creatinine kinase and concentration of potassium, sodium and thyroxine hormone were not different between the 2 groups. The concentration of triiodothyronine and chloride ion was lower in THI>80 group indicating adaptive changes for thermoregulation. HSP70 gene expressions in the three tissues were differentially increased (P < 0.01) by temperature-humidity indices, but the expression of GRP78 was not different between the 2 groups. The results concluded that the environmental factors interact with genetics on adaptability towards thermotolerance in slow-growing chickens.

7.
Proc Biol Sci ; 291(2032): 20241130, 2024 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39353554

RESUMEN

Global change is believed to be a major driver of the emergence of invasive pathogens. Yet, there are few documented examples that illustrate the processes that hinder or trigger their geographic spread. Here, we present phylogenetic, epidemiological and historical evidence to explain how European vineyards escaped Xylella fastidiosa (Xf), the vector-borne bacterium responsible for Pierce's disease (PD). Using Bayesian temporal reconstruction, we show that the export of American grapevines to France as rootstocks to combat phylloxera (~1872-1895) preceded the spread of the Xf grapevine lineage in the USA. We found that the time of the most recent common ancestor in California dates to around 1875, which agrees with the emergence of the first PD outbreak and the expansion into the southeastern US around 1895. We also show that between 1870 and 1990, climatic conditions in continental Europe were mostly below the threshold for the development of PD epidemics. However, our model indicates an inadvertent expansion of risk in southern Europe since the 1990s, which is accelerating with global warming. Our temporal approach identifies the biogeographical conditions that have so far prevented PD in southern European wine-producing areas and predicts that disease risk will increase substantially with increasing temperatures.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedades de las Plantas , Vitis , Xylella , Vitis/microbiología , Enfermedades de las Plantas/microbiología , Europa (Continente) , Teorema de Bayes , Filogenia , Filogeografía , Cambio Climático
8.
Sci Total Environ ; 954: 176560, 2024 Sep 30.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39357755

RESUMEN

Reports on the influences of spring frost on crop losses are not consistent, which may be because insufficient indicators of spring frost were included in the analysis. To bridge this gap, we analyzed global temperature datasets and production data for the three major crops of maize, winter wheat, and rice from 1981 to 2016. Five indicators of spring frost events: temperature fluctuation (Tv), temperature difference (Td), duration (Thour), occurrence date (Tdate), and frequency (Tnum) were considered to assess their relationship with yield losses. Linear regression was employed to analyze the change trends in five indicators and random forest was utilized to investigate the relationship between yield loss and indicators of spring frost. Our findings reveal that, despite a decline in the number of spring frost events during global warming, not all the five indicators declined over time. Tv is the most important indicator for yield losses in maize and winter wheat, which shows an increasing trend in their growing regions and provides an explanation for the increasing yield losses of maize and winter wheat over time. Td is the most important indicator of rice yield losses but it shows a decreasing trend in rice-growing areas, which explains why rice yield losses from spring frosts in recent years are not significant.

9.
Sci Total Environ ; 954: 176557, 2024 Sep 30.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39357758

RESUMEN

Thermokarst landslide (TL) activity in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is intensifying due to climate warming-induced permafrost degradation. However, the mechanisms driving landslide formation and evolution remain poorly understood. This study investigates the spatial distribution, annual frequency, and monthly dynamics of TLs along the Qinghai-Tibet engineering corridor (QTEC), in conjunction with in-situ temperature and rainfall observations, to elucidate the interplay between warming, permafrost degradation, and landslide activity. Through the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and field surveys, we identified 1298 landslides along the QTEC between 2016 and 2022, with an additional 386 landslides recorded in a typical landslide-prone sub-area. In 2016, 621 new active-layer detachments (ALDs) were identified, 1.3 times the total historical record. This surge aligned with unprecedented mean annual and August temperatures. The ALDs emerged primarily between late August and early September, coinciding with maximum thaw depth. From 2016 to 2022, 97.8 % of these ALDs evolved into retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs), identified as active landslides. Landslides typically occur in alpine meadows at moderate altitudes and on gentle northward slopes. The thick ice layer near the permafrost table serves as the material basis for ALD occurrence. Abnormally high temperature significantly increased the active layer thickness (ALT), resulting in melting of the ice layer and formation of a thawed interlayer, which was the direct causing factor for ALD. By altering the local material, micro-topography, and thermal conditions, ALD activity significantly increases RTS susceptibility. Understanding the mechanisms of ALD formation and evolution into RTS provides a theoretical foundation for infrastructure development and disaster mitigation in extreme environments.

10.
Environ Monit Assess ; 196(11): 1010, 2024 Oct 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39361047

RESUMEN

This research article investigates the intricate interplay between climate change, global sea level rise (SLR), and the impacts of sea level rise on the coastal regions of India. Through an interdisciplinary approach, this paper provides an overview of the global consequences of SLR on coastal communities, exploring economic, social, and environmental impacts on agriculture, communities, and coastal areas. The study examines the displacement of communities and its impact on food security, infrastructure, tourism, and ecological loss based on a comprehensive literature review. This paper emphasizes the sustainable preservation of coastal ecosystems and the development of climate-resilient infrastructure. This research aims to offer a detailed understanding of the evolving landscape of coastal livelihoods, providing valuable insights for adaptive strategies, policy formulation, and sustainable development. Ultimately, this article contributes to the scientific discourse by shedding light on the complex dynamics between climate change, SLR, and coastal communities, guiding efforts toward a resilient and sustainable future. The insights are drawn from secondary data resources, including books, scholarly journals, and reports from organizations such as the IPCC and NOAA. Based on a thorough review of the relevant literature, it critically examines the existing and potential consequences of sea level rise induced by climate change.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Ecosistema , Elevación del Nivel del Mar , India , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Humanos , Agricultura , Desarrollo Sostenible
11.
Sci Total Environ ; 954: 176612, 2024 Oct 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39362531

RESUMEN

Over recent decades, anthropogenic forest fires have significantly altered vegetation dynamics in the Amazon region. While human activities primarily initiate these fires, their escalation is intricately linked to climatic conditions, particularly droughts induced by the warm El Niño phase. This study investigates the impact of meteorological and hydrological drought on forest fires in the Amazon, focusing on the role of groundwater and El Niño events. Utilizing comprehensive drought indicators at various soil depths and standardized precipitation indexes, the research spans from 2004 to 2016, revealing a consistent decrease in humidity conditions across surface soil moisture, root zone soil moisture, and groundwater storage levels. With its slower response to precipitation changes, groundwater emerges as a crucial factor influencing hydrological drought patterns in the Amazon. The spatial distribution of drought conditions is explored, highlighting areas with lower humidity concentrations in the northeast and a correlation between forest fires and positive rates of change in burned area fraction during El Niño events. Notably, the study underscores the substantial increase in burned area during the 2015-2016, characterized by a very strong El Niño. This nuanced understanding of groundwater dynamics and its interplay with El Niño events provides critical insights for developing a tailored fire risk index in the ecologically significant and vulnerable Amazon basin, subsidizing strategies for mitigating fire risk and enhancing preparedness.

12.
Sci Total Environ ; 954: 176638, 2024 Oct 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39362560

RESUMEN

Coastal cities, as centres of human habitation, economic activity and biodiversity, are confronting the ever-escalating challenges posed by climate change. In this work, a novel Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment framework is presented with the focus on Coastal City Living Labs. The methodology provides a comprehensive assessment of climate-related hazards, including sea-level rise, coastal flooding, coastal erosion, land flooding, heavy precipitation, extreme temperatures, heatwaves, cold spells, landslides and strong winds. Its application is illustrated through a case study: the Coastal City Living Lab of Benidorm, Spain. The methodology incorporates remote sensing data from various satellite sources, such as ERA5, Urban Atlas and MERIT DEM, to evaluate multiple hazards through a systematic and standardized indicator-based approach, offering a holistic risk profile that allows for comparison with other European coastal cities. The integration of remote sensing data enhances the accuracy and resolution of hazard indicators, providing detailed insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of climate risks. The incorporation of local expertise through the Coastal City Living Lab concept enriches data collection and ensures context-specific adequacy. The integration of local studies and historical extreme climate events enhances the validity and context of the risk indicators. The findings align with regional trends and reveal specific vulnerabilities, particularly related to heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding. Despite its strengths, the MHRA methodology faces limitations, including reliance on outdated datasets and the complexity of integrating multiple hazards. Continuous updates and adaptive management strategies are essential to maintain the accuracy and relevance of risk assessments. The broader implications of the methodology for global coastal cities highlight its potential as a model for developing targeted adaptation strategies.

13.
Sci Total Environ ; 954: 176642, 2024 Oct 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39362567

RESUMEN

The lateral transport of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from land to rivers and oceans is a significant but overlooked component of the global carbon cycle. However, there are still large uncertainties in the magnitude and trend of global DOC export fluxes, as well as their response to environmental change. In this study, several simulations were conducted using a developed land surface model that considered riverine DOC transport and anthropogenic disturbance to investigate the terrestrial DOC loading and riverine DOC export, and to quantify the relative contributions of natural and anthropogenic factors over the past four decades (1981-2016). These factors include climate change, nitrogen deposition, land use change, atmospheric CO2 concentration, anthropogenic water regulation, and fertilizer and manure application. Results showed that the average global annual terrestrial DOC loading was about 432.30 ± 53.59 Tg C yr-1, and rivers exported about 209.73 ± 36.58 Tg C yr-1 to oceans over the past four decades. Simultaneously, a significant increase in terrestrial DOC loading and riverine DOC export fluxes (3.36 Tg C yr-2 and 2.99 Tg Cyr-2, p < 0.01) was found, which increased by 26.88 % and 47.02 %, respectively. According to our factorial analysis, the interannual variability in DOC fluxes in most regions was mainly attributed to climate change and contributed more than 60 % of the long-term increase. In addition, rising atmospheric CO2 and land use change amplified the increase in terrestrial DOC loading, with the area dominated by the two factors expanding from 7.94 % in the 1980s to 23.84 % in the 2010s, and riverine DOC export showed a similar pattern, which may be related to the increased soil DOC sources. Anthropogenic water regulation and nitrogen addition have led to a slight increase in DOC fluxes, which should not be ignored, otherwise carbon fluxes may be underestimated.

14.
Sci Total Environ ; 954: 176663, 2024 Oct 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39362565

RESUMEN

As the issue of global climate change becomes increasingly prominent, the grassland ecosystems in Central Asia are facing severe challenges posed by the impacts of climate change. However, the dominant factors, impact pathways, and cumulative and time-lagged effects of climate factors on various grassland indices remain to be explored. This study selected data from 1988 to 2019, including Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC), Leaf Area Index (LAI), Net Primary Productivity (NPP), and Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD), to characterize grassland coverage, greenness, biomass accumulation, and water content features. Utilizing multiple linear regression, path analysis, and correlation analysis, this study investigated the dominant effects, direct impacts, indirect influences, and cumulative and time-lagged effects of climate factors on various grassland indices from spatial and climatic zone perspectives. The research findings indicate that over time, the grassland FVC and NPP exhibited increasing trends, while the LAI and VOD showed decreasing trends. Grassland indices are primarily influenced by precipitation and soil moisture (SM). The direct impact of SM on grassland indices was higher than precipitation. Vapour pressure deficit (VPD) has a direct negative impact on grassland indices. Grassland indices are subject to positive indirect effects from precipitation via SM and negative indirect effects from VPD via SM. Precipitation and SM mainly exhibited no cumulative and time-lagged effects on the impact of grassland VOD. VPD primarily demonstrated cumulative and time-lagged effects on grassland indices. The research findings offer valuable insights for conserving grassland ecosystems in Central Asia, as well as for shaping socioeconomic strategies and formulating climate policies.

15.
Mar Pollut Bull ; 208: 117028, 2024 Oct 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39366058

RESUMEN

Climate change pressures include the dissolved oxygen decline that in lagoon ecosystems can lead to hypoxia, i.e. low dissolved oxygen concentrations, which have consequences to ecosystem functioning including biogeochemical cycling from mild to severe disruption. The study investigates the potential of machine learning (ML) and deterministic models to predict future hypoxia events. Employing ML models, e.g. Random Forest and AdaBoost, past hypoxia events (2008-2019) in the Venice Lagoon were classified with an F1 score of around 0.83, based on water quality, meteorological, and spatio-temporal factors. Future scenarios (2050, 2100) were estimated by integrating hydrodynamic-biogeochemical and climate projections. Results suggest hypoxia events will increase from 3.5 % to 8.8 % by 2100, particularly in landward lagoon areas. Summer prediction foresee a rise from 118 events to 265 by 2100, with a longer hypoxia-prone season. This model is a valuable tool for developing hypoxia scenarios, aiding in identifying restoration hotspots for climate-threatened lagoons.

16.
Int J Hyg Environ Health ; 263: 114471, 2024 Oct 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39366078

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: Up to now, studies on environmental, climatic, socio-economic factors, and non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) show diverse associations, often contrasting, with COVID-19 spread or severity. Most studies used large-scale, aggregated data, with limited adjustment for individual factors, most of them focused on viral spread than severe outcomes. Moreover, evidence simultaneously evaluating variables belonging to different exposure domains is scarce, and none analysing their collective impact on an individual level. METHODS: Our population-based retrospective cohort study aimed to assess the comprehensive role played by exposure variables belonging to four different domains, environmental, climatic, socio-economic, and non-pharmacological interventions (NPI), on individual COVID-19-related risk of hospitalization and death, analysing data from all patients (no. 68472) tested positive to a SARS-CoV-2 swab in Modena Province (Northern Italy) between February 2020 and August 2021. Using adjusted Cox proportional hazard models, we estimated the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes, investigating dose-response relationships through restricted cubic spline modelling for hazard ratios. RESULTS: Several significant associations emerged: long-term exposure to air pollutants (NO2, PM10, PM2.5) was linked to hospitalization risk in a complex way and showed an increased risk for death; while humidity was inversely associated; temperature showed a U-shaped risk; wind speed showed a linear association with both outcomes. Precipitation increased hospitalization risk but decreased mortality. Socio-economic and NPI indices showed clear linear associations, respectively negative and positive, with both outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings offer insights for evidence-based policy decisions, improving precision healthcare practices, and safeguarding public health in future pandemics. Refinement of pandemic response plans by healthcare authorities could benefit significantly.

17.
J Environ Manage ; 370: 122779, 2024 Oct 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39366225

RESUMEN

Anthropogenic activities have resulted in rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3), exerting substantial direct and indirect impacts on soil biodiversity within agroecosystems. Despite the considerable attention given to the individual impacts of elevated CO2 and O3 levels, the combined effects on soil nematode communities have not been extensively explored. In this study, we investigated the interactive effects of elevated CO2 (+200 ppm, eCO2) and O3 (+40 ppb, eO3) levels on the abundance, diversity, and trophic composition of soil nematode communities associated with two rice cultivars (Nanjing 5055, NJ5055 and Wuyujing 3, WYJ3). Our findings revealed that soil nematodes had greater abundances under eO3, whereas eCO2 had no significant impacts. Conversely, both eCO2 and eO3, and their combination led to significant reductions in nematode generic richness, accompanied by a decline in the diversity particularly associated with the WYJ3 cultivar. Moreover, eCO2 and eO3 influenced nematode community composition and environmental factors, particularly for the WYJ3 cultivar. Both eCO2 and eO3 significantly increased soil nitrate levels. The changes in nematode community composition were related to soil nitrate levels, as well as nitrogen and carbon concentrations in rice plant roots. Furthermore, interactions between eCO2 and eO3 significantly impacted soil nematode abundance and trophic composition, revealing intricate consequences for soil nematode communities that transcend predictions based on single-factor experiments. This study unveils the potential impacts posed by eCO2 and eO3 on soil biodiversity mediated by rice cultivars, plant functional characteristics and soil feedback mechanisms, thereby underscoring the complex and interactive outcomes arising from concurrent drivers of climate change within the soil food web.

18.
J Environ Manage ; 370: 122636, 2024 Oct 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39366226

RESUMEN

Many researchers have noted the limited adoption of farming management practices that should increase the resilience of smallholder farmers to weather shocks and mitigate their impact on the changing climate in sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we evaluate the dynamics of adopting "good agricultural practices" in Malawi, using data from a three-wave panel collected as part of an impact assessment of the Sustainable Agricultural Production Programme, funded by the International Fund for Agricultural Development. In addition to project impacts, we also evaluate additional mechanisms though which farmers may learn about the costs and benefits of different practices. We also evaluate the extent to which climatic conditions - such as being located in drought-prone or heavy rainfall areas - drive adoption decisions. Given the three waves of data, we first look at the range of adoption pathways observed, through the use of an adoption pathway trees. We identify six pathways, noting that adoption is not continuous for a large percentage of households. We then run a multinomial logit to assess the factors that increase the likelihood of falling into different adoption categories vis-a-vis remaining a never adopter. Results suggest that learning through information dissemination, such as through the SAPP project, and wider learning opportunities significantly increased the likelihood of pursuing different adoption pathways, while climatic conditions and learning through observing have limited impacts. On the other hand, for land-intensive management practices, being located in drought-prone areas or being located in areas prone to heavy rainfall increased the likelihood of pursuing different adoption pathways, as did greater ability to learn by observing. Learning by information sharing had limited impacts for land-intensive adoption pathway decisions. Overall, results suggest that information dissemination is important, though the mechanism differs by type of practice promoted. Flexibility in adoption status is an attribute of this system and there is a need to identify and promote practices that are both flexible and increase resilience to climate change.

19.
J Environ Manage ; 370: 122817, 2024 Oct 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39366235

RESUMEN

New energy vehicles (NEVs), owing to their low carbon emission, have gained immense importance to achieve the net-zero emission target. The global NEVs market has grown significantly over the last decade. China, the United States (US), and Europe are the leading markets for NEVs. This study systematically and critically reviews NEV literature on consumer behavior pertaining to NEV adoption. An attempt is made to uncover the current research trends, research settings, theoretical perspectives, and key factors influencing consumer behavior towards NEVs. These factors are further categorized into five broad factors: (a) economic factors, (b) policy and regulatory factors, (c) psychological factors, (d) infrastructural and technological factors, and (e) demographic factors. Through a critical analysis of existing theories, this study delineates the complex phenomenon of consumer behavior towards NEV adoption, offering a holistic understanding of the key factors influencing consumer behavior. This review suggests that purchasing price, charging infrastructures, consumers' attitudes towards the environment, and government policies are decisive to NEV adoption. This study contributes to the NEV adoption literature by proposing an integrated theoretical framework. Further, it outlines the managerial and policy implications for transitioning towards NEVs to achieve net-zero emission targets.

20.
Transpl Infect Dis ; : e14384, 2024 Oct 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39368080

RESUMEN

This review describes the risks and benefits of expanding screening for transmissible pathogens in deceased organ donors. The focus is on the experience and procedure in Germany to make a decision on how to proceed with a possible donor. Three issues are of interest in how screening policies impact the process with the aim of mitigating unexpected transmission risks: (1) Should we add universal or targeted nucleic acid testing to serological tests for common blood-borne viruses (BBVs; HIV, HBV, and HCV)? (2) Which tests should be added for screening in a geographically restricted region beyond testing for these BBVs? (3) Being faced with changes (e.g., climate and population) in the own geographically restricted region, what strategies are needed before implementing new tests, and which considerations apply for proper indication to do this? Testing may only be effective when during donor characterization the appropriate conclusions are drawn from the existing findings and screening tests are initiated. This statement overlaps the need to implement universal screening for a pathogen or targeted screening based on the risk that the donor has acquired the transmissible pathogen or is not as possible to identify by current methods of clinical judgment and/or specific tests.

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