Global biomass maps can increase the precision of (sub)national aboveground biomass estimates: A comparison across tropical countries.

Countries within the tropics face ongoing challenges in completing or updating their national forest inventories (NFIs), critical for estimating aboveground biomass (AGB) and for forest-related greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting. While previous studies have explored the integration of map information with local reference data to fill in data gaps, limited attention has been given to the specific challenges presented by the clustered plot designs frequently employed by NFIs when combined with remote sensing-based biomass map units. This research addresses these complexities by conducting four country case-studies, encompassing a variety of NFI characteristics within a range of AGB densities. Examining four country case-studies (Peru, Guyana, Tanzania, Mozambique), we assess the potential of European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative (CCI) global biomass maps to increase precision in (sub)national AGB estimates. We compare a baseline approach using NFI field-based data with a model-assisted scenario incorporating a locally calibrated CCI biomass map as auxiliary information. The original CCI biomass maps systematically underestimate AGB in three of the four countries at both the country and stratum level, with particularly weak agreement at finer map resolution. However, after calibration with country-specific NFI data, stratum and country-level AGB estimates from the model-assisted scenario align well with those obtained solely from field-based data and official country reports. Introducing maps as a source of auxiliary information fairly increased the precision of stratum and country-wise AGB estimates, offering greater confidence in estimating AGB for GHG reporting purposes. Considering the challenges tropical countries face with implementing their NFIs, it is sensible to explore the potential benefits of biomass maps for climate change reporting mechanisms across biomes. While country-specific NFI design assumptions guided our model-assisted inference strategies, this study also uncovers transferable insights from the application of global biomass maps with NFI data, providing valuable lessons for climate research and policy communities.

Sampling effect in predicting the evolutionary response of populations to climate change.

Genomic data and machine learning approaches have gained interest due to their potential to identify adaptive genetic variation across populations and to assess species vulnerability to climate change. By identifying gene-environment associations for putatively adaptive loci, these approaches project changes to adaptive genetic composition as a function of future climate change (genetic offsets), which are interpreted as measuring the future maladaptation of populations due to climate change. In principle, higher genetic offsets relate to increased population vulnerability and therefore can be used to set priorities for conservation and management. However, it is not clear how sensitive these metrics are to the intensity of population and individual sampling. Here, we use five genomic datasets with varying numbers of SNPs (NSNPs = 7006-1,398,773), sampled populations (Npop = 23-47) and individuals (Nind = 185-595) to evaluate the estimation sensitivity of genetic offsets to varying degrees of sampling intensity. We found that genetic offsets are sensitive to the number of populations being sampled, especially with less than 10 populations and when genetic structure is high. We also found that the number of individuals sampled per population had small effects on the estimation of genetic offsets, with more robust results when five or more individuals are sampled. Finally, uncertainty associated with the use of different future climate scenarios slightly increased estimation uncertainty in the genetic offsets. Our results suggest that sampling efforts should focus on increasing the number of populations, rather than the number of individuals per populations, and that multiple future climate scenarios should be evaluated to ascertain estimation sensitivity.

Haphazard Intentional Sampling in Survey and Allocation Studies on COVID-19 Prevalence and Vaccine Efficacy.

Haphazard intentional sampling is a method developed by our research group for two main purposes: (i) sampling design, where the interest is to select small samples that accurately represent the general population regarding a set of covariates of interest; or (ii) experimental design, where the interest is to assemble treatment groups that are similar to each other regarding a set of covariates of interest. Rerandomization is a similar method proposed by K. Morgan and D. Rubin. Both methods intentionally select good samples but, in slightly different ways, also introduce some noise in the selection procedure aiming to obtain a decoupling effect that avoids systematic bias or other confounding effects. This paper compares the performance of the aforementioned methods and the standard randomization method in two benchmark problems concerning SARS-CoV-2 prevalence and vaccine efficacy. Numerical simulation studies show that haphazard intentional sampling can either reduce operating costs in up to 80% to achieve the same estimation errors yielded by the standard randomization method or, the other way around, reduce estimation errors in up to 80% using the same sample sizes.

Evaluation of the Minimum Sampling Design for Population Genomic and Microsatellite Studies: An Analysis Based on Wild Maize.

Massive parallel sequencing (MPS) is revolutionizing the field of molecular ecology by allowing us to understand better the evolutionary history of populations and species, and to detect genomic regions that could be under selection. However, the economic and computational resources needed generate a tradeoff between the amount of loci that can be obtained and the number of populations or individuals that can be sequenced. In this work, we analyzed and compared two simulated genomic datasets fitting a hierarchical structure, two extensive empirical genomic datasets, and a dataset comprising microsatellite information. For all datasets, we generated different subsampling designs by changing the number of loci, individuals, populations, and individuals per population to test for deviations in classic population genetics parameters (H S , F IS , F ST ). For the empirical datasets we also analyzed the effect of sampling design on landscape genetic tests (isolation by distance and environment, central abundance hypothesis). We also tested the effect of sampling a different number of populations in the detection of outlier SNPs. We found that the microsatellite dataset is very sensitive to the number of individuals sampled when obtaining summary statistics. F IS was particularly sensitive to a low sampling of individuals in the simulated, genomic, and microsatellite datasets. For the empirical and simulated genomic datasets, we found that as long as many populations are sampled, few individuals and loci are needed. For the empirical datasets, we found that increasing the number of populations sampled was important in obtaining precise landscape genetic estimates. Finally, we corroborated that outlier tests are sensitive to the number of populations sampled. We conclude by proposing different sampling designs depending on the objectives.

Ecology of microplastics contamination within food webs of estuarine and coastal ecosystems.

The aim was to describe a methodology developed to study the relationship among the spatio-temporal patterns of habitat utilization, feeding ecology and microplastics (MPs) contamination across the different ontogenetic phases of fishes belonging to different trophic levels and living along the riverine-estuarine-coastal food web. The Goiana Estuary's water column was examined for the seasonal and spatial variation of MPs and their quantification relative to zooplankton, demersal fish species contamination following the same sampling design. The density of MPs in the water column determines their bioavailability. Interest in studies on MPs distribution in relation to spatial and temporal variation of environmental factors and fauna are increasing in quantity and quality. If the ecological strategies presented in this study were replicated in other estuary, comparisons could be made in order to describe how ecosystems work. Standard protocols for sampling, extraction, enumeration and classification of MPs and others pollutant ingested by fishes have been developed and are presented here to encourage comparisons. Standardized and comparable sampling designs and laboratory procedures are an important strategy in order to devise and transfer managerial solutions among different sites and comparisons along time when studying the same environment.

Revealing biases in the sampling of ecological interaction networks.

The structure of ecological interactions is commonly understood through analyses of interaction networks. However, these analyses may be sensitive to sampling biases with respect to both the interactors (the nodes of the network) and interactions (the links between nodes), because the detectability of species and their interactions is highly heterogeneous. These ecological and statistical issues directly affect ecologists' abilities to accurately construct ecological networks. However, statistical biases introduced by sampling are difficult to quantify in the absence of full knowledge of the underlying ecological network's structure. To explore properties of large-scale ecological networks, we developed the software EcoNetGen, which constructs and samples networks with predetermined topologies. These networks may represent a wide variety of communities that vary in size and types of ecological interactions. We sampled these networks with different mathematical sampling designs that correspond to methods used in field observations. The observed networks generated by each sampling process were then analyzed with respect to the number of components, size of components and other network metrics. We show that the sampling effort needed to estimate underlying network properties depends strongly both on the sampling design and on the underlying network topology. In particular, networks with random or scale-free modules require more complete sampling to reveal their structure, compared to networks whose modules are nested or bipartite. Overall, modules with nested structure were the easiest to detect, regardless of the sampling design used. Sampling a network starting with any species that had a high degree (e.g., abundant generalist species) was consistently found to be the most accurate strategy to estimate network structure. Because high-degree species tend to be generalists, abundant in natural communities relative to specialists, and connected to each other, sampling by degree may therefore be common but unintentional in empirical sampling of networks. Conversely, sampling according to module (representing different interaction types or taxa) results in a rather complete view of certain modules, but fails to provide a complete picture of the underlying network. To reduce biases introduced by sampling methods, we recommend that these findings be incorporated into field design considerations for projects aiming to characterize large species interaction networks.

Impact of damming on the Chironomidae of the upper zone of a tropical run-of-the-river reservoir / Impacto de um represamento sobre Chironomidae do remanso de um reservatório fio dágua tropical

Abstract We examined the effects of the Mogi-Guaçu river damming (São Paulo State, Brazil) on the Chironomidae fauna. Pre, during, and post-filling sampling was carried out in the main channel and margins of one site in the upper zone of the reservoir, using a modified Petersen grab (325 cm2). We evaluated the total, subfamily, and tribe densities and also their relative abundance. Analysis of genera included densities, relative abundance, richness, and dominance. The Rossos ecological value index (EVI) determined the ecological importance of each genus. There was a tendency of decrease of the total Chironomidae density, increase in the percentage of Chironomini, and decrease in densities and percentages of Orthocladiinae and Tanytarsini. These changes in percentage were respectively related to Polypedilum, Lopescladius, and Rheotanytarsus, the genera with the highest EVI values. After-filling richness was lower in the margins and dominance of genera did not change significantly. Chironomidae in the margins was more sensitive to damming than in the main channel. This difference in sensibility sustains the use of Chironomidae as bioindicators. Damming impact was indicated by the reduction of both genera richness in the margins and relative abundance of groups typical of faster waters. The results have highlighted the need for multi-habitat analysis combined with a before-after sampling approach in the environmental impact studies concerning the damming impact on the benthic fauna.(AU)

Resumo Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o impacto do represamento do Rio Mogi-Guaçu, em um ponto situado na zona de remanso do reservatório, através da utilização da taxocenose Chironomidae. A amostragem foi realizada antes, durante e após o represamento, no canal e nas margens, com o auxílio de um pegador Petersen modificado (área de 325 cm2). Calculou-se a densidade total, de subfamílias, tribos e gêneros de Chironomidae, bem como sua abundância relativa. Estimou-se a riqueza e a dominância de gêneros. O índice de valor ecológico de Rosso (IVE) foi utilizado para avaliar a importância ecológica dos diferentes gêneros. Houve tendência de redução da densidade total de Chironomidae, aumento da abundância relativa de Chironomini e diminuição das abundâncias relativas de Orthocladiinae e Tanytarsini. Estas alterações de abundância relativa foram relacionadas respectivamente a Polypedilum, Lopescladius e Rheotanytarsus, gêneros que apresentaram os maiores valores de IVE. Após o represamento, houve decréscimo da riqueza de gêneros na margem, enquanto a dominância não apresentou alteração significativa. A taxocenose de Chironomidae das margens mostrou-se mais sensível ao represamento que a do canal. Esta diferença de sensibilidade confirma o potencial dos Chironomidae como bioindicadores. A ocorrência de impacto foi observada através da diminuição da riqueza de gêneros nas margens e da abundância relativa de táxons característicos de águas mais rápidas. Os resultados chamam atenção para a necessidade de utilizar a abordagem de múltiplos habitats combinada com a amostragem antes e depois do evento na avaliação dos impactos causados por represamento sobre a fauna bentônica.(AU)

Impact of damming on the Chironomidae of the upper zone of a tropical run-of-the-river reservoir / Impacto de um represamento sobre Chironomidae do remanso de um reservatório fio água tropical

Abstract We examined the effects of the Mogi-Guaçu river damming (São Paulo State, Brazil) on the Chironomidae fauna. Pre, during, and post-filling sampling was carried out in the main channel and margins of one site in the upper zone of the reservoir, using a modified Petersen grab (325 cm2). We evaluated the total, subfamily, and tribe densities and also their relative abundance. Analysis of genera included densities, relative abundance, richness, and dominance. The Rosso’s ecological value index (EVI) determined the ecological importance of each genus. There was a tendency of decrease of the total Chironomidae density, increase in the percentage of Chironomini, and decrease in densities and percentages of Orthocladiinae and Tanytarsini. These changes in percentage were respectively related to Polypedilum, Lopescladius, and Rheotanytarsus, the genera with the highest EVI values. After-filling richness was lower in the margins and dominance of genera did not change significantly. Chironomidae in the margins was more sensitive to damming than in the main channel. This difference in sensibility sustains the use of Chironomidae as bioindicators. Damming impact was indicated by the reduction of both genera richness in the margins and relative abundance of groups typical of faster waters. The results have highlighted the need for multi-habitat analysis combined with a before-after sampling approach in the environmental impact studies concerning the damming impact on the benthic fauna.

Resumo Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o impacto do represamento do Rio Mogi-Guaçu, em um ponto situado na zona de remanso do reservatório, através da utilização da taxocenose Chironomidae. A amostragem foi realizada antes, durante e após o represamento, no canal e nas margens, com o auxílio de um pegador Petersen modificado (área de 325 cm2). Calculou-se a densidade total, de subfamílias, tribos e gêneros de Chironomidae, bem como sua abundância relativa. Estimou-se a riqueza e a dominância de gêneros. O índice de valor ecológico de Rosso (IVE) foi utilizado para avaliar a importância ecológica dos diferentes gêneros. Houve tendência de redução da densidade total de Chironomidae, aumento da abundância relativa de Chironomini e diminuição das abundâncias relativas de Orthocladiinae e Tanytarsini. Estas alterações de abundância relativa foram relacionadas respectivamente a Polypedilum, Lopescladius e Rheotanytarsus, gêneros que apresentaram os maiores valores de IVE. Após o represamento, houve decréscimo da riqueza de gêneros na margem, enquanto a dominância não apresentou alteração significativa. A taxocenose de Chironomidae das margens mostrou-se mais sensível ao represamento que a do canal. Esta diferença de sensibilidade confirma o potencial dos Chironomidae como bioindicadores. A ocorrência de impacto foi observada através da diminuição da riqueza de gêneros nas margens e da abundância relativa de táxons característicos de águas mais rápidas. Os resultados chamam atenção para a necessidade de utilizar a abordagem de múltiplos habitats combinada com a amostragem antes e depois do evento na avaliação dos impactos causados por represamento sobre a fauna bentônica.

Impact of damming on the Chironomidae of the upper zone of a tropical run-of-the-river reservoir

Abstract We examined the effects of the Mogi-Guaçu river damming (São Paulo State, Brazil) on the Chironomidae fauna. Pre, during, and post-filling sampling was carried out in the main channel and margins of one site in the upper zone of the reservoir, using a modified Petersen grab (325 cm2). We evaluated the total, subfamily, and tribe densities and also their relative abundance. Analysis of genera included densities, relative abundance, richness, and dominance. The Rossos ecological value index (EVI) determined the ecological importance of each genus. There was a tendency of decrease of the total Chironomidae density, increase in the percentage of Chironomini, and decrease in densities and percentages of Orthocladiinae and Tanytarsini. These changes in percentage were respectively related to Polypedilum, Lopescladius, and Rheotanytarsus, the genera with the highest EVI values. After-filling richness was lower in the margins and dominance of genera did not change significantly. Chironomidae in the margins was more sensitive to damming than in the main channel. This difference in sensibility sustains the use of Chironomidae as bioindicators. Damming impact was indicated by the reduction of both genera richness in the margins and relative abundance of groups typical of faster waters. The results have highlighted the need for multi-habitat analysis combined with a before-after sampling approach in the environmental impact studies concerning the damming impact on the benthic fauna.

Resumo Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o impacto do represamento do Rio Mogi-Guaçu, em um ponto situado na zona de remanso do reservatório, através da utilização da taxocenose Chironomidae. A amostragem foi realizada antes, durante e após o represamento, no canal e nas margens, com o auxílio de um pegador Petersen modificado (área de 325 cm2). Calculou-se a densidade total, de subfamílias, tribos e gêneros de Chironomidae, bem como sua abundância relativa. Estimou-se a riqueza e a dominância de gêneros. O índice de valor ecológico de Rosso (IVE) foi utilizado para avaliar a importância ecológica dos diferentes gêneros. Houve tendência de redução da densidade total de Chironomidae, aumento da abundância relativa de Chironomini e diminuição das abundâncias relativas de Orthocladiinae e Tanytarsini. Estas alterações de abundância relativa foram relacionadas respectivamente a Polypedilum, Lopescladius e Rheotanytarsus, gêneros que apresentaram os maiores valores de IVE. Após o represamento, houve decréscimo da riqueza de gêneros na margem, enquanto a dominância não apresentou alteração significativa. A taxocenose de Chironomidae das margens mostrou-se mais sensível ao represamento que a do canal. Esta diferença de sensibilidade confirma o potencial dos Chironomidae como bioindicadores. A ocorrência de impacto foi observada através da diminuição da riqueza de gêneros nas margens e da abundância relativa de táxons característicos de águas mais rápidas. Os resultados chamam atenção para a necessidade de utilizar a abordagem de múltiplos habitats combinada com a amostragem antes e depois do evento na avaliação dos impactos causados por represamento sobre a fauna bentônica.