Variability in the Timing of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Epidemics in Guatemala, 2008-2018.

BACKGROUND: The description of local seasonality patterns in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) incidence is important to guide the timing of administration of RSV immunization products. METHODS: We characterized RSV seasonality in Guatemala using the moving epidemic method (MEM) with absolute counts of RSV-associated acute respiratory infections (ARI) from hospital surveillance in Santa Rosa and Quetzaltenango departments of Guatemala. RESULTS: From Week 17 of 2008 through Week 16 of 2018, 8487 ARI cases tested positive for RSV by rRT-PCR. Season onsets varied up to 5 months; early seasons starting in late May to early August and finishing in September to November were most common, but late seasons starting in October to November and finishing in March to April were also observed. Both epidemic patterns had similar durations ranging from 4 to 6 months. Epidemic thresholds (the levels of virus activity that signal the onset and end of a seasonal epidemic) calculated prospectively using previous seasons' data captured between 70% and 99% of annual RSV detections. Onset weeks differed by 2-10 weeks, and offset weeks differed by 2-16 weeks between the two surveillance sites. CONCLUSIONS: Variability in the timing of seasonal RSV epidemics in Guatemala demonstrates the difficulty in precisely predicting the timing of seasonal RSV epidemics based on onset weeks from past seasons and suggests that maximal reduction in RSV disease burden would be achieved through year-round vaccination and immunoprophylaxis administration to at-risk infants.

Home range of three turtle species in Central Yucatan. A comparative study.

Home range is a fundamental characteristic of an animal natural history. The study of home range provides information on the sites where organisms forage for food, find shelter, or locate mates. Home range size and shape can change throughout the lifespan of an organism, during the year, or across seasons, driven by resource availability and the basic needs for each organism. For freshwater and semi-aquatic turtles, home range is greatly affected by water availability, humidity, and temperature throughout the year, nevertheless demographic factors such age and sex are also important determinants of home range size. In this study we estimated home range and dispersal movements for Kinosternon creaseri, Terrapene yucatana, and Rhinoclemmys areolata in a semi-tropical dry forest in central Yucatán. For a two-year period, turtles were surveyed using hoop traps and visual encounters. Twenty-one individuals (5-8 per species) were equipped with radio transmitters to track them across the landscape. Distances between relocations and home range were compared across species seasons, sex, and interactions of these variables. Monthly average movements were positively correlated with rain in the three species studied. Home range of R. areolata was larger than those of K. creaseri and T. yucatana. Home range of the three studied species were larger during the wet season. Home range overlap index within same species individuals was higher during the rainy than dry season, but overall overlap is low between and within species.

Desert dust episodes during pregnancy are associated with increased preterm delivery in French Guiana.

Preterm deliveries are a major multifactorial public health problem in French Guiana. Desert dust episodes have been associated with preterm delivery in Guadeloupe, a territory with similarities to French Guiana. We thus tried to replicate this finding in the context of French Guiana. A retrospective ecological cohort study combined daily PM10 concentration measurements during pregnancy and term at delivery extracted from French Guiana's computerized pregnancy delivery registry. Daily PM10 concentrations during the course of pregnancy were analyzed as mean concentrations and as the proportion of intense dust episodes (≥55 µg PM10/m3). These exposure variables were studied in relation to the outcome of preterm delivery. Overall, 3,321 pregnant women with complete daily PM10 measurements were included, of whom 374 (11.26%) delivered prematurely. Among preterm deliveries, 168 (44.9%) were spontaneous deliveries and 206 (55.1%) were induced. Rank-sum tests showed that, for spontaneous and induced spontaneous deliveries, both mean PM10 concentrations and proportions of intense desert dust episodes were significantly greater among preterm births than among term births. Although the proportion of intense desert dust episodes during pregnancy was significantly associated with spontaneous preterm deliveries, the relation was U-shaped, with an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2 (95%CI = 1.2-3.1) for lowest values relative to median values and AOR = 5.4 (95%CI = 3.2-8.9) for the highest values relative to median values. Similarly, the proportion of intense desert dust episodes during pregnancy was also significantly associated with induced preterm deliveries in a U-shaped manner (AOR = 2.7 (95%CI = 1.6-4.5) for the lowest relative to median values and AOR = 6.8 (95%CI = 3.9-11.9) for the highest relative to median values). Although in our study the relation between PM10 concentrations appeared non-linear, the highest mean concentrations and intense desert dust episodes were indeed associated with both spontaneous and induced preterm delivery.

Reproductive biology of the totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi), an endangered species in the Gulf of California.

The totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi) is an emblematic species endemic to the Gulf of California, which has been protected since the mid-70 s by Mexican and international laws. For the present study, 153 totoaba individuals were collected from 2011 to 2014, on which gonad histology analyses were carried out. We identified six ovarian phases and eleven oocyte subphases in the gonad development of females; in males, four development phases were identified. The totoaba is an iteroparous species based on the number of breeding opportunities. According to the organization of the ovary and the presence of oocyte subphases, ovarian dynamics can be considered asynchronous, as demonstrated by the multimodal distribution of oocyte diameter. The totoaba is a batch spawner that releases oocytes over several months. The reproductive period spans from February to May, with a reproductive peak in March. Likewise, the gonadosomatic index showed that the reproductive activity of totoaba peaked in March and April. The female:male sex ratio, although variable throughout the sampling period, yielded an overall value of 0.89:1, with non-significant differences between the number of females and males (P > 0.05). The length at first sexual maturity (L50%) was 1 354 mm TL for females and 1 299 mm TL for males. The average fecundity was 2 662 626 (standard error, s.e., 1 021 124) oocytes, and the average relative fecundity was 99 (s.e. 22) oocytes g-1 (ovary-free). The mean and maximum oocyte diameter showed a positive and non-significant (P > 0.05) relationship with the mean sea surface temperature.

Association between serum Vitamin D levels and asthma severity and control in children and adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of serum Vitamin D (vitD) levels with asthma control and severity in children and adolescents in different seasons of the year. METHOD: Longitudinal, prospective study with 7- to 17-year-old children and adolescents diagnosed with asthma. All participants underwent two assessments conducted in opposite seasons of the year which included a clinical assessment, a questionnaire for classification of asthma control (Asthma Control Test), spirometry, and blood collection to measure serum vitD levels. RESULTS: In total, 141 individuals with asthma were evaluated. The mean vitD was lower in females (p = 0.006) and sunlight exposure appears not to be an influencing factor for vitD levels. We found no differences in mean vitD of patients with controlled and uncontrolled asthma (p = 0.703; p = 0.956). However, the severe asthma group had lower mean Vitamin D than the mild/moderate asthma group for both assessments (p = 0.013; p = 0.032). In the first assessment, the group with vitD insufficiency had a higher prevalence of severe asthma (p = 0.015). Vitamin D was positively correlated with FEV1 in both assessments (p = 0.008; p = 0.006) and with FEF25-75% in the first assessment (p = 0.038). CONCLUSION: In a tropical climate zone, there is no evidence of association between seasonality and serum vitD levels or between serum vitD levels and asthma control in children and adolescents. However, vitD and lung function were positively correlated and the group with vitD insufficiency had a higher prevalence of severe asthma.

No seasonality in the risk of multiple sclerosis in an equatorial country: A case-control ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis risk has been shown to have seasonal variations that are more pronounced in higher latitudes. However, this phenomenon has not been adequately studied near the Equator. OBJECTIVE: To explore the risk of multiple sclerosis associated with month, season of birth, and sunlight exposure variables in Colombia. METHODS: In this case-control study, 668 multiple sclerosis cases were matched to 2672 controls by sex and age. Association of multiple sclerosis with each month/season of birth and sunlight exposure variables was estimated with multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression and ecological regression models, respectively. Seasonality in the births of multiple sclerosis was assessed with a non-parametric seasonality test. RESULTS: We found a higher probability of multiple sclerosis in September (0.25; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.21-0.31) and lower in March (0.15; 95% CI = 0.10-0.18), which turned non-significant after a multiple comparisons test. Sunlight exposure variables had no significant effect on the risk of MS, and the tests of seasonality in the births of MS did not show significant results. CONCLUSION: Our results show no seasonality in the risk of multiple sclerosis near the Equator, supporting the hypothesis that this phenomenon is latitude dependent.

Cerebrovascular mortality: trend and seasonality in Brazilian capitals, 2000-2019 / Mortalidade cerebrovascular: tendência e sazonalidade nas capitais brasileiras, 2000-2019

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To evaluate the trend and seasonality of cerebrovascular mortality rates in the adult population of Brazilian capitals from 2000 to 2019. METHODS This is an ecological and descriptive study of a time series of mortality due to cerebrovascular causes in adults (≥ 18 years) living in Brazilian capitals from 2000 to 2019, based on the Brazilian Mortality Information System. Descriptive statistical techniques were applied in the exploratory analysis of data and in the summary of specific, standardized rates and ratios by sociodemographic characteristics. The jointpoint regression model was used to estimate the trend of cerebrovascular mortality rates by gender, age groups, and geographic regions. The seasonal variability of rates by geographic regions was estimated using the generalized additive model by smoothing cubic splines. RESULTS People aged over 60 years comprised 77% of all cerebrovascular deaths. Women (52%), white individuals (47%), single people (59%), and those with low schooling (57%, elementary school) predominated in our sample. Recife (20/1,000 inhab.) and Vitória (16/1,000 inhab.) showed the highest crude mortality rates. Recife (49/10,000 inhab.) and Palmas (47/10,000 inhab.) prevailed after we applied standardized rates. Cerebrovascular mortality rates in Brazil show a favorable declining trend for adults of all genders. Seasonality influenced rate increase from July to August in almost all region capitals, except in the North, which rose in March, April, and May. CONCLUSIONS Deaths due to cerebrovascular causes prevailed in older single adults with low schooling. The trend showed a tendency to decline and winter, the greatest risk. Regional differences can support decision-makers in implementing public policies to reduce cerebrovascular mortality.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Avaliar a tendência e a sazonalidade das taxas de mortalidade cerebrovascular na população adulta das capitais brasileiras de 2000 a 2019. MÉTODOS Estudo ecológico e descritivo de séries temporais de mortalidade por causas cerebrovasculares em adultos (≥ 18 anos) residentes nas capitais do Brasil no período 2000-2019, obtidas do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade. Técnicas de estatística descritiva foram aplicadas na análise exploratória dos dados e no resumo de taxas específicas, padronizadas e razões por características sociodemográficas. A regressão de pontos de junção (jointpoint regression model) estimou a tendência das taxas de mortalidade cerebrovascular por sexo, grupos etários e regiões geográficas. A variabilidade sazonal por regiões geográficas das taxas foi estimada utilizando o modelo aditivo generalizado por meio de splines de suavização cúbica. RESULTADOS As pessoas maiores de 60 anos representaram 77% dos óbitos cerebrovasculares. Predominaram o sexo feminino (52%), a raça branca (47%), os solteiros (59%) e a baixa escolaridade (57%, ensino fundamental). As capitais Recife (20/1.000 hab.) e Vitória (16/1.000 hab.) apresentaram as maiores taxas brutas de mortalidade. Aplicando as taxas padronizadas Recife (49/10.000 hab.) e Palmas (47/10.000 hab.) prevaleceram. As taxas de mortalidade cerebrovascular no Brasil apresentam uma tendência favorável ao declínio em ambos os sexos e em adultos. A sazonalidade mostrou influenciar na elevação das taxas entre os meses de julho a agosto em quase todas as capitais das regiões, exceto na Norte, que se elevaram nos meses de março, abril e maio. CONCLUSÕES Os óbitos por causa cerebrovascular prevaleceram em pessoas idosas, solteiras e com baixa escolaridade. A tendência foi favorável ao declínio, sendo o inverno o período de maior risco. As diferenças regionais permitem subsidiar os tomadores de decisões em relação à implementação de políticas públicas para reduzir a mortalidade cerebrovascular.

Time series of cases and treatment outcomes from tuberculosis in Sergipe, 2012-2021 / Série temporal dos casos e dos desfechos do tratamento contra tuberculose em Sergipe, 2012-2021

ABSTRACT Objective: The objectives of this study were: (1) to analyze the temporal trend of tuberculosis treatment outcomes in the state of Sergipe; (2) to identify the existence of seasonality of tuberculosis; (3) to verify the influence of the rapid molecular test (MTB-RIF) in the time series of tuberculosis and its treatment outcomes in the state of Sergipe; and (4) to verify treatment outcomes. Methods: Ecological study on tuberculosis and three treatment outcomes (cure, interruption of treatment, and death) extracted from Datasus. Incidence and mortality rates were calculated for the crude occurrences of cases and deaths and the proportions of cure and interruption of treatment (%). The time series was analyzed using Prais-Winsten regression from Jan to Dec/2021. Results: The total incidence rate was 36.35 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with an increase of 0.44% per month (95%CI 0.35; 0.54). The cure rate was 64.0% with a steady trend (p>0.05). The percentage of treatment interruption was 13.3%, with a reduction of −0.73%/month (95%CI −1.11; −0.34). The total mortality rate was 1.92 deaths/100,000 inhabitants with a stationary trend. After the implementation of the MTB-RIF, there was an increase in the incidence rate of 0.65% per month. Seasonality was not identified in any of the analyses performed (p>0.05). Conclusion: There was an increase in incidence rates, reduction in treatment interruption and mortality in the state of Sergipe. Seasonality was not identified. The rapid molecular test showed a growth effect on the incidence rate.

RESUMO Objetivo: Os objetivos deste estudo são, no estado de Sergipe: (1) analisar a tendência temporal da tuberculose e os desfechos do tratamento; (2) identificar a existência de sazonalidade da tuberculose; (3) verificar a influência do teste rápido molecular (TRM-TB) na série temporal da tuberculose e seus desfechos de tratamento; e (4) verificar os desfechos do tratamento. Métodos: Estudo ecológico sobre tuberculose e três desfechos do tratamento (cura, interrupção do tratamento e óbito) extraídos do Datasus. Foram calculadas as taxas de incidência e de mortalidade para as ocorrências brutas de casos e as proporções de cura e interrupção do tratamento (%). A série temporal foi analisada pela regressão de Prais-Winsten no período de janeiro de 2012 a dezembro de 2021. Resultados: A taxa de incidência total foi de 36,35 casos por 100 mil habitantes, com aumento de 0,44% ao mês (IC95% 0,35; 0,54). A proporção de cura foi de 64,0%, com tendência estacionária (p>0,05). O percentual de interrupção do tratamento foi de 13,3%, com redução de 0,73% ao mês (IC95% −1,11; −0,34). A taxa de mortalidade total foi de 1,92 morte por100 mil habitantes, com tendência estacionária. Posteriormente à implementação do TRM-TB, a taxa de incidência cresceu 0,65% ao mês. A sazonalidade não foi identificada em nenhuma das análises realizadas (p>0,05). Conclusão: Cresceram as taxas de incidência, redução da interrupção do tratamento e mortalidade no estado de Sergipe. Não foi identificado sazonalidade. O teste rápido molecular apresentou efeito de crescimento na taxa de incidência.

Residual formaldehyde contents in fresh white cheese in El Salvador: Seasonal changes associated with temperature.

Detection of residual formaldehyde (FA) in dairy products could be explained by direct addition of this preservative to extend the shelf life of raw material or final product at room temperature. FA is not authorized as a preservative by international standards and its addition to dairy products is prohibited due to its potentially harmful effects on consumers. Although the carcinogenicity of FA by oral exposure has not been proven, it is also known it cause histopathological and cytogenic changes in tissues at first contact, so its toxicity by ingestion should not be underestimated. This research determined both residual FA levels in locally produced fresh white cheese and its variation according to the seasons of the year and its association with ambient temperature. None of the FA levels quantified in cheese exceeded the maximum tolerable concentration (2.6 mg/kg) and although average FA contents did not vary significantly with seasonal changes (0.093-0.181 mg/kg), the number of positive cases did, since the highest prevalence occurred in the dry (60.9 %) and transitional dry-rainy (79.7 %) seasons of 2021, which are characterized by having the highest average ambient temperatures (27.5 °C and 28.3 °C, respectively). It was also shown that 79.6 % of the variability of FA-positive samples is explained by changes in the average temperature according to the year´s season. The association between these variables and quantified levels of aldehyde in raw milk sampled at the plant could indicate that FA was used to prevent milk and/or the final product from decomposing due to the effect of high ambient temperature. In addition, residual FA contents decreased in both milk and cheese, depending on added preservative levels, and the time elapsed prior to analysis.

Análisis de serie de tiempo de patrones estacionales en defunciones por neumonía en el Perú, periodo 2003-2017

Introducción. Es un concepto generalizado que las infecciones respiratorias son estacionales, pero pocas veces se precisan localmente estos períodos de alta frecuencia en un país con diversidad de climas. Anticipar la temporada de neumonía a nivel local puede proveer de un mejor uso de recursos críticos. Objetivo. Examinar la variabilidad estacional en defunciones mensuales por neumonía en el Perú. Métodos. Estudio observacional retrospectivo de análisis de serie de tiempo para identificar períodos de alta mortalidad por neumonía en siete ciudades del Perú. Se revisaron registros administrativos del Ministerio de Salud sobre defunciones por neumonía durante los años 2003-2017. Se calcularon estadísticas descriptivas y se analizó mediante una serie de tiempo a escala mensual la frecuencia de defunciones por neumonía, precipitación acumulada, y la temperatura ambiental máxima y mínima. Resultados. El 94,4% de las defunciones por neumonía (N = 166 844) reportaron como causa "organismo no especificado", y el 75,6% eran adultos mayores de 65 años. En Tarma, Arequipa y Cusco la temperatura mínima tiene una correlación negativa con las defunciones por neumonía en todas las edades y al menos uno de los grupos de riesgo. En Iquitos la temperatura mínima tiene una correlación positiva con las defunciones en menores de 5 años. Pucallpa y Cajamarca no tuvieron correlaciones significativas. El clima de Lima es un caso particular. La distribución durante el año de las muertes por neumonía sugiere una secuencia norte-sur, mientras que el análisis espaciotemporal del clima sugiere un patrón que va de sur-norte. Conclusión. Existen diferentes patrones estacionales en diferentes ciudades y grupos de riesgo.

Introduction. It is generally accepted that respiratory infections are seasonal, but high-frequency periods are rarely identified at the local level in a country with diverse climates. Anticipating the pneumonia season locally can provide a better use of critical resources. Objective. The aim of the study was to examine seasonal variability in monthly deaths due to pneumonia in Peru. Methods. Observational retrospective study using time series analysis to identify periods of high pneumonia mortality in seven cities in Peru. We reviewed administrative reports from the Ministry of Health for pneumonia deaths during 2003-2017. Descriptive statistics were calculated and a time series analysis at a monthly scale was performed on the frequency of deaths due to pneumonia, cumulative rainfall, and maximum and minimum environmental temperatures. Results. 94.4% of pneumonia deaths (N = 166,844) were reported as pneumonia due to "unspecified organism", and 75.6% were adults older than 65 years. In the cities of Tarma, Arequipa and Cusco, minimum ambient temperature is negatively correlated to pneumonia deaths in all age groups and at least one risk group. In Iquitos, minimum temperature is positively correlated with deaths among children under 5 years of age. The cities of Pucallpa and Cajamarca reported no statistically significant correlation. The climate in Lima is a peculiar case. The distribution of pneumonia deaths throughout the year suggests a north-south sequence, while the climate space-time analysis suggests a south-north pattern. Conclusion. Results show different seasonal patterns for pneumonia deaths in different cities and risk groups.

Abundance of Lutzomyia longipalpis and Nyssomyia whitmani, the Leishmania spp. vectors in northeastern of Argentina: Are spatial and temporal changing patterns consistence?

Lutzomyia longipalpis and Nyssomyia whitmani were incriminated as vectors of Leishmania sp. Spatial heterogeneity together with seasonal changes in abundance constitute important elements for the understanding of the dynamics of vector populations, and there are fundamental for the development of adequate prevention and control strategies. The aim of this work was to compare the spatial and seasonal abundance of Lu. longipalpis and Ny. whitmani at a city spatial scale between two periods separated by three years. To study the spatial distribution, we compared the abundance distribution of these species at two warm times, 2011 with 2014. Respect to inter-annual seasonal abundance changes, we compared the four seasons of the year between two periods (2011-2012 vs 2014-2016). The spatial distribution for both species were found to be distributed mainly in the same areas of the city in both periods. We change for: Respect to the seasonal pattern of abundance, we observed that seasonal patterns showed changes between periods. Our study defines the 'where' and 'when' implement the actions to mitigate leishmaniasis cases.

Análise da sazonalidade da tuberculose nas capitais brasileiras e Distrito Federal, Brasil, no período de 2001 a 2019 / Analysis of the seasonality of tuberculosis in Brazilian capitals and the Federal District from 2001 to 2019 / Análisis de la estacionalidad de la tuberculosis en las capitales brasileñas y el Distrito Federal, Brasil, de 2001 a 2019

Existe uma limitação de trabalhos na literatura acerca da sazonalidade da tuberculose (TB) no hemisfério sul, o que torna necessário o preenchimento dessa lacuna de conhecimento para a região. O estudo objetiva analisar se existe sazonalidade da incidência de TB nas capitais brasileiras do Brasil e no Distrito Federal, por meio de um estudo ecológico de série temporal (2001-2019) dos casos da doença. Utilizou-se a base de 516.524 casos de TB do Ministério da Saúde. As capitais e o Distrito Federal foram distribuídos em cinco grupos, com base em indicadores sociais, carga da doença e classificação climática de Koppen. Avaliou-se a variação sazonal das notificações de TB e a amplitude sazonal por grupo. Identificou-se a presença da sazonalidade da TB no Brasil ao nível de significância de 1% em todos os grupos de capitais (teste de estabilidade assumida e Krusall-Wallis, p < 0,01) e, no teste combinado de sazonalidade, os grupos A, D e E de capitais mostraram presença de sazonalidade; e, provavelmente presentes, os grupos B e C. Os achados mostraram que é um desafio levantar os fatores sazonais subjacentes à sazonalidade da TB nas regiões tropicais do Hemisfério Sul: o clima pode não ser o fator subjacente mais relevante encontrado na sazonalidade da TB, mas sim a oferta e/ou procura por serviços de saúde.

The literature has few studies on the seasonality of tuberculosis (TB) in the southern hemisphere, entailing the fill of this knowledge gap. This study aims to analyze whether TB incidence in Brazilian capitals and the Federal District is seasonal. This is an ecological study of a time series (2001-2019) of TB cases, conducted with 26 capitals and the Federal District. The Ministry of Health database, with 516,524 TB cases, was used. Capitals and the Federal District were divided into five groups based on social indicators, disease burden, and the Koppen climate classification. The seasonal variation of TB notifications and group amplitude were evaluated. We found TB seasonality in Brazil with a 1% significance in all capital groups (Stability assumption and Krusall-Wallis tests, p < 0.01). In the combined seasonality test, capital groups A, D, and E showed seasonality, whereas groups B and C, its probability. Our findings showed that health service supply and/or demand - rather than climate - may be the most relevant underlying factor in TB seasonality. It is challenging to raise the other seasonal factors underlying TB seasonality in tropical regions in the Southern Hemisphere.

Son limitados los estudios que tratan de la estacionalidad de la tuberculosis (TB) en el hemisferio Sur, por lo que se hace necesario llenar esta laguna. Este estudio tiene como objetivo analizar si existe una estacionalidad en la incidencia de TB en las capitales brasileñas y en el Distrito Federal, Brasil. Estudio ecológico de series de tiempo (2001-2019) de casos de TB, realizado en 26 capitales brasileñas y el Distrito Federal. Se utilizó una base de datos con 516.524 casos de TB del Ministerio de Salud. Las capitales y el Distrito Federal se dividieron en cinco grupos, con base en indicadores sociales, carga de enfermedad y clasificación climática de Koppen. Se evaluaron la variación estacional de las notificaciones de TB y la amplitud estacional por grupo. La presencia de estacionalidad de la TB en Brasil fue identificada con un nivel de significación del 1% en todos los grupos de capitales (prueba de estabilidad supuesta y Kruskal-Wallis, p < 0,01), en la prueba de estacionalidad combinada, los grupos A, D y E de las capitales tuvieron la presencia de estacionalidad; y también es probable que haya estado presente en los grupos B y C. Los hallazgos demostraron que el clima puede no ser el factor subyacente más relevante encontrado en la estacionalidad de la TB, pero sí la oferta y/o demanda de servicios de salud, lo que muestra que es un desafío plantear los demás factores estacionales subyacentes a la estacionalidad de la TB en las regiones tropicales del Hemisferio Sur.

Soil macrofauna in areas with different successional vegetation stages after Eucalyptus grandis harvest in Brazil / Macrofauna do solo em áreas com diferentes estágios de vegetação sucessional após a colheita de Eucalyptus grandis no Brasil

The objective of this study was to evaluate the composition of soil macrofauna over different periods after the harvest of Eucalyptus grandis to understand the ecological restoration process. Data collection was carried out in each climatic season by the "Tropical Soil Biology and Fertility" Program. In general, 25,789 individuals were collected from the soil macrofauna and distributed in 26 taxonomic groups, with the Formicidae family being the most abundant. Of the individuals found, 7,418 were collected during autumn, 7,320 in summer, 5,553 in winter, and 5,498 in spring. The soil macrofauna was influenced by seasonality, with a higher density of individuals in autumn and summer. Regarding functional groups, social groups were dominant in all areas and seasons, comprising 74.50% of the total number of individuals. The detritivores group comprised 17.98% of the total individuals. Herbivores, snails, and slugs accounted for 3.98% of the total individuals. The functional groups detritivores, herbivores, and predators were more abundant in the litter, while the social groups were predominant in the soil depths of 0 to 30 cm. As the forest progressed, the richness of the macrofauna groups increased, demonstrating the influence of successional dynamics on the composition of the soil macrofauna.(AU)

O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o processo de restauração ecológica por meio da composição da macrofauna do solo em diferentes períodos após a colheita de Eucalyptus grandis. As coletas de dados foram realizadas em cada estação climática usando o método recomendado pelo Programa "Tropical Soil Biology and Fertility". No geral, foram coletados 25.789 indivíduos da macrofauna do solo, distribuídos em 26 grupos taxonômicos, destacando-se a família Formicidae com maior abundância. Dos indivíduos encontrados, 7.418 foram coletados no outono, 7.320 no verão, 5.553 no inverno e 5.498 na primavera. A macrofauna do solo foi influenciada pela sazonalidade, com maior densidade de indivíduos no outono e no verão. Em relação aos grupos funcionais, os sociais foram dominantes em todas as áreas e estações do ano, compreendendo 74,50% do total de indivíduos. O grupo dos detritívoros representou 17,98%. Herbívoros, caracóis e lesmas representaram 3,98% do total de indivíduos. Os grupos funcionais detritívoros, herbívoros e predadores foram mais abundantes na serapilheira, enquanto os grupos sociais predominaram nas profundidades do solo de 0 a 30 cm. À medida que o estágio sucessional da floresta progrediu, a riqueza dos grupos da macrofauna aumentou, evidenciando a influência da dinâmica sucessional na composição da macrofauna do solo.(AU)

Clinical-epidemiological characteristics associated with discharge outcomes and seasonality among surviving patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome in a national third-level hospital, Lima, Peru / Características clínico-epidemiológicas asociadas con los resultados al alta y la estacionalidad entre los pacientes sobrevivientes con síndrome de Guillain-Barré en un hospital nacional de tercer nivel, Lima, Peru

ABSTRACT Background: Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is an autoimmune disease that affects the peripheral nervous system. Severe motor deficit (SMD), respiratory impairment, cranial nerve involvement and autonomic dysfunction are associated with a poor prognosis. Objective: To investigate the association between the clinical-epidemiological characteristics and the discharge results among Peruvian patients with GBS. Methods: We carried out a retrospective observational study on patients with GBS who survived until discharge. We used the Brighton Collaboration's criteria and considered Hughes Severity Scale (HSS) scores greater than two to be SMD. We defined the discharge results as an improvement if the HSS score decreased by at least one point from admission to hospital discharge and defined hospital stay as prolonged if > 14 days. Results: We analyzed 92 patients, among whom 70.7% were male. Quadriparesis (81.1%) and hyporeflexia (86.8%) were the most characteristic manifestations. We observed that more than half of the cases were in summer and winter. Gastrointestinal infections were associated with a higher proportion of prolonged stays. The proportion of improvement was lower among patients who had an SMD at hospital admission. We confirmed these results through fitting in multivariate models. Conclusions: The prolonged stay was related to previous gastrointestinal infection, while a less improvement in SMD individuals at admission. Prospective multicenter surveillance systems are needed for monitoring GBS cases in low-income settings like Peru.

RESUMEN Antecedentes: El síndrome de Guillain-Barré (SGB) es una enfermedad autoinmune que afecta al sistema nervioso periférico. Déficit motor severo (DMS), compromiso respiratorio, afectación de pares craneales y disfunción autonómica se asocian con un mal pronóstico. Objetivo: Investigar la asociación entre las características clínico-epidemiológicas y los resultados del alta en pacientes peruanos con SGB. Métodos: Realizamos un estudio observacional retrospectivo de pacientes con SGB supervivientes hasta el alta. Consideramos los criterios de colaboración de Brighton y una escala de severidad de Hughes (ESH) superior a dos como un DMS. Definimos los resultados del alta como una mejoría si el ESH disminuyó en al menos un punto desde el ingreso hasta el alta hospitalaria y una estadía prolongada si el tiempo de hospitalización fue > 14 días. Resultados: Analizamos 92 pacientes, de los cuales el 70,7% eran varones. La cuadriparesia (81,1%) y la hiporreflexia (86,8%) fueron las manifestaciones más características. Observamos más de la mitad de los casos en verano e invierno. Las infecciones gastrointestinales se asociaron con una mayor proporción de estadías prolongadas. La proporción de mejoría fue menor en los pacientes que tenían un DMS al ingreso hospitalario. Confirmamos estos resultados con modelos multivariados ajustados. Conclusiones: La estadía prolongada se relacionó con infección gastrointestinal previa, mientras que una mejoría menor en individuos con DMS al ingreso. Necesitamos sistemas de vigilancia multicéntricos prospectivos para monitorear los casos de SGB en un entorno de bajos ingresos como Perú.

Variación estacional de las defunciones por infarto agudo del miocardio en Chile / Seasonal variation of acute myocardial infarction deaths in Chile

Background: Hospitalization and deaths due to cardiovascular diseases (CVD), have a peak in frequency during winter. Aim: To assess the existence of seasonal variation in deaths due to acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Chile. Material and Methods: Analysis of death report databases available at the website of the Chilean Ministry of Health. The seasonality of deaths due to AMI (codes ICD-10 I21, I22, I23) occuring in Chile between 2001-2016 were analyzed using a geometric model assuming a sinusoidal cyclic pattern. Results: During the period 2001-2016, a total of 94,788 deaths due to AMI were registered, corresponding to 93,349 corrected deaths. Of the latter, 29.2% occurred in winter, 24.9% in spring, 24.0% in autumn and 21.8% in summer. The geometric model showed a marked sinusoidal pattern for the aggregated data. The peak-to-low ratio of deaths was 1.41 (95% CI 1.38-1.44). The peak of deaths occurred during July in 14 out of 16 years analyzed. Conclusions: In Chile, deaths due to AMI have a marked seasonal pattern, characterized by a higher number of deaths in winter and a lower number in summer.

Effect of seasonality in hospitalizations and deaths from acute myocardial infarction in southern Brazil from 2009 to 2018.

INTRODUCTION: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is one of the main causes of morbidity and mortality in Brazil and worldwide. Seasonality and climate change seem to be associated with hospitalization for AMI. OBJECTIVE: to analyze the effect that seasonality and temperature have on the number of hospitalizations and deaths due to AMI, stratified by gender and age group, from 2009 to 2018 in a region of southern Brazil. METHODS: An Ecological study, composed of cases of hospitalizations and deaths by AMI in the Association of Municipalities of the Laguna Region (AMUREL), SC, Brazil. Data on AMI were collected by the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (DATASUS) and data on average monthly temperature (degrees Celsius) of the Laguna region (SC, Brazil) were provided by the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). The data analysis was performed through linear regression and ANOVA test with Tukey post-hoc. RESULTS: 2947 hospitalizations were analyzed. The monthly average hospitalization per AMI was 24.6±8.1 cases (7.0±2.2/100,000 inhabitants) with a lethality of 14.4±6.8%. The results showed that there is no difference in AMI hospitalization between the months of the year, but showed a significant negative correlation between temperature and AMI hospitalizations (r=-0.219; P=0.022; ß=-0.165). It was also shown that men and elderly had more cases of AMI hospitalization, but women and elderly had more lethality. When the lethality rate was analyzed during the study period, there was a significant negative correlation, indicating the reduction of AMI deaths with time. CONCLUSION: There was an association between temperature reduction and AMI hospitalization, where each 6°C reduction in temperature was related to an increase of 1 hospitalization per AMI/100,000 inhabitants. It is hoped that the results may assist in the formulation of public environmental policies for the prevention of risk factors for AMI.

Variação sazonal das atividades físicas e sedentárias de estudantes no semiárido baiano / Seasonal variation of physical activities and sedentary behaviors among schoolchildren

Este estudo analisou a variação sazonal das atividades físicas e dos comportamentos sedentários de uma amostra por conveniência de crianças e adolescentes, de uma escola pública no semiárido baiano (n = 462; 52,9% de meninos; 7-12 anos). Trata-se de um estudo longitudinal de um ano de seguimento. Atividades físicas e comportamentos sedentários foram relatados no questionário Consumo Alimentar e Atividade Física de Escolares (Web-CAAFE). As medidas repetidas foram realizadas no outono, inverno e primavera. Os desfechos avaliados foram: quantidade de atividades físicas diária (AFD) e de comportamentos sedentários (CS), frequências de atividades físicas leves (AFL), moderadas (AFM) e vigorosas (AFV ). Análises foram conduzidas via modelagem de equações de estimativa generalizada (GEE) (distribuição Poisson), com ajuste por temperatura ambiente e precipitação pluviométrica. Não houve variação sazonal estatisticamente significativa na AFD. No inverno, houve mais relatos de AFL (Coef² = 1,37; IC95%: 1,14-1,66) e de CS (Coef² = 1,16; IC95%: 1,05-1,29), enquanto AFV foram menos frequentes (Coef² = 0,83; IC95%: 0,71-0,97). AFV foram menos relatadas no outono (Coef² = 0,82; IC95%: 0,69-0,98). Sexo modificou o efeito das estações nas AFV, que entre meninos, ocorreram mais no outono (Coef² = 1,72 IC95%=1,16-2,56) e no inverno (Coef² = 1,84; IC95%: 1,26-2,69). Idade modificou efeito das estações sobre os CS. Durante o seguimento, houve mais CS na faixa etária 10-12 anos, porém, com diferença estatística significativa no outono e no início da primavera. O inverno favoreceu as AFL e os CS, mas restringiu as AFV, sobretudo entre meninas. Estudantes de 10-12 anos apresentaram mais CS, especialmente no outono e início da primavera

This one-year follow-up study analyzed the seasonal variation of physical activities and sedentary behaviors among children and adolescents, from public schools in the semiarid region of Bahia state (convenience sample, n = 462; 52.9% boys; 7-12 years). Physical activities and sedentary behaviors were reported in the Food Intake and Physical Activity of School Children Questionnaire ( WEB-CAAFE). Seasonal measure-ments were performed in fall, winter and spring. The outcomes were: daily amount of physical activities (DPA) and sedentary behaviors (SB), frequencies of light (LPA), moderate (MPA) and vigorous ( VPA) physical activities. The analyses were conducted via modeling of generalized estimation equations (GEE), with adjustment by temperature and rainfall. There was no statistically significant seasonal variation in DPA. During winter, there were more reports of LPA (Coef² = 1.37; 95%CI: 1.14-1.66) and SB (Coef² = 1.16; 95%CI: 1.05-1.29), while VPA was less frequent (Coef² = 0.83; 95%CI: 0.71-0.97). VPA occurred less in the fall (Coef² = 0.82; 95%CI: 0.69-0.98). Sex modified the effect of seasons on VPA: among boys, VPA occurred more frequently in the fall (Coef² = 1.72; 95%CI: 1.16-2.56) and winter (Coef² = 1.84; 95%CI: 1.26-2.69). Age modified the effect of the seasons on the SB: there were more SB in the 10-12 years age group, however, with a statistically significant difference only in the fall and early spring. LPA and SB increased during winter, but VPA decreased, especially among girls. Students aged 10-12 years had more SB in the fall and early spring

Mercury biomagnification in an ichthyic food chain of an amazon floodplain lake (Puruzinho Lake): Influence of seasonality and food chain modeling.

Mercury (Hg) biomagnification in fish food chains is a relevant subject due to the high fish consumption of the Amazonian population and the high toxicity of this metal. In the Amazon, floodplain lake hydrodynamics change considerably along the four seasons of the hydrological cycle (rising water, high water, falling water and low water), which can influence Hg bioaccumulation in fish. The main aim of this study was to evaluate if Hg biomagnification is influenced by seasonality in a floodplain lake (Puruzinho Lake) in the Brazilian Amazon. Additionally, the influence of food chain modeling on measurement of Hg biomagnification was tested. Hg concentrations and stable isotope signatures (carbon and nitrogen) were estimated in four species, Mylossoma duriventre (herbivorous), Prochilodus nigricans (detritivorous), Cichla pleiozona (piscivorous) and Serrasalmus rhombeus (piscivorous). The "trophic magnification slope" (TMS) of the food chain composed by the four species was calculated and compared among the four seasons. There was no significant seasonal variation in TMS among rising water, high water, falling water and low water seasons (p = 0.08), suggesting that Hg biomagnification does not change seasonally. However, there was significant variation in TMS among different food chain models. Lower TMS was observed in a food chain composed of detritivorous and piscivorous fish (0.20) in comparison with a food chain composed of the four species (0.26). The results indicate food chain modeling influences TMS results.

Vegetative rescue of Cedrela fissilis Vell. by the rooting of cuttings from epicormic and canopy sprouts / Resgate vegetativo de Cedrela fissilis Vell. por enraizamento de estacas de brotos epicórmicos e de copa

ABSTRACT: Cedrela fissilis is a species of great genetic diversity, with low population density and seminal propagation, which causes difficulties in the vegetative propagation process. This research evaluated the vegetative rescue and propagation of stem cutting rooting originated from epicormic and canopy sprouts of C. fissilis. For this, the induction of epicormic sprouts was evaluated 52 days after the complete girdling and semi-girdling 20 and 40 cm from the ground, and no girdling treatment, during spring (2018), summer (2018) and autumn (2019). The variables evaluated were, survival (%), sprouting (%), number, length (cm) and diameter (mm) of sprouts. The cuttings were made from spring epicormic sprouts, divided in two categories: 10 cm cuttings placed vertically in pits and 5 cm cuttings placed horizontally in furrows. The canopy sprouts were collected in the summer, then cut in apical and intermediate cuttings (15 cm). After 60 days, the cuttings were evaluated in survival (%), rooting (%), callus (%), average number and length of roots (cm). Results showed that only the complete girdling produced sprouts (average >67%) with no difference between 20 and 40 cm heights, with a greater number of sprouts during spring. The cuttings from epicormic sprouts, planted vertically in pits presented higher percentage of rooting (44%) than cuttings planted horizontally in furrows (17%). Cuttings from the canopy had inconsiderable rooting (apical - 2%; intermediate - 0%). The girdling periods influences the number of epicormic sprouts and its use for cutting was more efficient in rooting.

RESUMO: Cedrela fissilis é uma espécie de grande diversidade genética, com baixa densidade populacional florestal, de propagação seminal, que apresenta dificuldade de ser propagada vegetativamente. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o regate e propagação vegetativa a partir do enraizamento de estacas de origem epicórmicas e de copa de C. fissilis. Para isso, a brotação epicórmica foi avaliada 52 dias após o anelamento completo e semianelamento nas alturas de 20 e 40 cm, e tratamento sem anelamento, durante primavera (2018), verão (2018) e outono (2019). Foram avaliados: sobrevivência das árvores (%), brotação (%), número, comprimento (cm) e diâmetro (mm) de brotos. A estaquia utilizou brotos epicórmicos de primavera, divididos em duas categorias: estacas com 10 cm colocadas verticalmente em covas e estacas de 5 cm colocadas horizontalmente em sulcos. Brotos de copa foram coletados no verão, cortados em estacas apicais e intermediárias (15 cm). Após 60 dias avaliou-se das estacas: sobrevivência (%), enraizamento (%), calos (%), número médio e comprimento de raízes (cm). Os resultados apresentam que apenas o anelamento completo formou brotos (média >67%), sem diferença entre a altura 20 e 40 cm, com maior número de brotos durante a primavera. As estacas de brotos epicórmicos, plantadas verticalmente em covas, apresentaram a maior porcentagem de enraizamento (44%) que estacas plantadas horizontalmente em sulcos (17%). Estacas de copa obtiveram enraizamento desconsiderável (apicais - 2%; intermediárias - 0%). As épocas de anelamento influenciam no número de brotos epicórmicos e seu uso como estacas foi mais eficiente no enraizamento.

Impacto do efeito calendário na morbimortalidade por causas externas em municípios turísticos no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, no período de 2004 a 2014 / Impact of calendar effect on morbidity and mortality from external causes in tourist towns in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, from 2004 to 2014 / Impacto del efecto calendario en la morbimortalidad por causas externas en municipios turísticos en el Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, durante el período de 2004 a 2014

O objetivo desta pesquisa é analisar a associação de variações temporais dos agravos e das mortes por causas externas com períodos de maior fluxo de visitantes em municípios turísticos do litoral de São Paulo, Brasil, no período de 2004 a 2014. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico, de séries temporais diárias e mensais, baseado nos dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM) e Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do Sistema Único de Saúde (SIH/SUS) no período de 1º de janeiro de 2004 a 31 de dezembro de 2014, tendo como unidades de análise os quatro municípios do litoral norte do Estado de São Paulo. Modelos de regressão binomial negativa foram ajustados para o desfecho que representou o número de ocorrências de internações hospitalares e/ou óbitos por causas externas, tendo como preditores as variáveis de calendário (dias da semana, feriados, mês e ano de ocorrência). Os feriados de Ano Novo, Carnaval, Tiradentes e Proclamação da República destacaram-se com médias iguais ou superiores a 5 desfechos por dia. Dentre os dias da semana, a segunda-feira e o domingo apresentaram as maiores médias. Levando em consideração todos os preditores, verifica-se maior tendência de ocorrência dos desfechos na segunda-feira (OR = 1,11; IC95%: 1,05-1,18), nos feriados de Ano Novo (OR = 1,44; IC95%: 1,19-1,74) e Proclamação da República (OR = 1,49; IC95%: 1,13-1,94) e nos meses de janeiro (OR = 1,11; IC95%: 1,02-1,20) e fevereiro (OR = 1,13; IC95%: 1,04-1,23). A morbidade e a mortalidade por causas externas nos municípios estudados foram maiores no período de maior movimentação de turistas, subsidiando a estruturação do atendimento destas lesões e as ações de prevenção e de promoção de saúde direcionadas para este grupo de causas.

This study aims to analyze the association between temporal variations in injuries and deaths from external causes and periods of greater flow of visitors in tourist municipalities (counties) on the coastline of the state of São Paulo, Brazil, from 2004 to 2014. This is an ecological study of daily and monthly time series based on data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System (SIM) and Brazilian Hospital Information System of the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SIH/SUS) from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2014, using as the analytical units the four municipalities on the northern coast of the State of São Paulo. Negative binomial regression models were adjusted for the outcome that represented the number of hospital admissions and/or deaths from external causes, with calendar variables as predictors (days of the week, holidays, month, and year of occurrence). The Brazilian holidays New Year's Day, Carnival, Tiradentes, and Proclamation of the Republic stood out with mean numbers greater than or equal to 5 outcomes per day. Among the days of the week, Monday and Sunday had the highest mean numbers. Considering all the predictors, there was a higher tendency to the occurrence of outcomes on Monday (OR = 1.11; 95%CI: 1.05-1.18), New Year's Day (OR = 1.44; 95%CI: 1.19-1.74), and Proclamation of the Republic Day (OR = 1.49; 95%CI: 1.13-1.94) and in the months of January (OR = 1.11; 95%CI: 1.02-1.20) and February (OR = 1.13; 95%CI: 1.04-1.23). Morbidity and mortality from external causes in these tourist towns were higher in the period with the greatest flow of tourists, emphasizing the need to organize care for these injuries, alongside measures for prevention and health promotion targeted to this group of causes.

El objetivo de esta investigación es analizar la asociación de variaciones temporales en enfermedades y muertes por causas externas, durante períodos de mayor flujo de visitantes en municipios turísticos del litoral de São Paulo, Brasil, durante el período de 2004 a 2014. Se trata de un estudio ecológico, de series temporales diarias y mensuales, basado en los datos del Sistema de Información sobre Mortalidad (SIM) y Sistema de Informaciones Hospitalarias del Sistema Único de Salud (SIH/SUS), durante el período del 1º de enero de 2004 al 31 de diciembre de 2014, teniendo como unidades de análisis los cuatro municipios del litoral norte del Estado de São Paulo. Modelos de regresión binomial negativa se ajustaron al resultado que representó el número de ocurrencias de internamientos hospitalarios y/u óbitos por causas externas, teniendo como predictores variables de calendario (días de la semana, festivos, mes y año de ocurrencia). Los festivos de Año Nuevo, Carnaval, Tiradentes y Proclamación de la República se destacaron con medias iguales o superiores a 5 resultados por día. Entre los días de la semana, el lunes y el domingo presentaron las mayores medias. Teniendo en consideración todos los predictores, se verifica una mayor tendencia de ocurrencia de los resultados: los lunes (OR = 1,11; IC95%: 1,05-1,18), festivo de Año Nuevo (OR = 1,44; IC95%: 1,19-1,74) y Proclamación de la República (OR = 1,49; IC95%: 1,13-1,94) y, en los meses de enero (OR = 1,11; IC95%: 1,02-1,20) y de febrero (OR = 1,13; IC95%: 1,04-1,23). La morbilidad y mortalidad por causas externas en los municipios estudiados fueron mayores en el período de mayor movimiento de turistas, apoyando la organización de la atención a esas lesiones, así como acciones de prevención y promoción de salud dirigidas hacia este grupo de causas.