Survival rate and its predictors in HIV patients: A 15-year follow-up of 3030 patients.

BACKGROUND: The high prevalence of HIV infection and the deaths caused by it is one of the challenges for the healthcare systems throughout the world. In this study, we analyzed the survival of people living with HIV and co-infections, and related factors. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was performed on 3030 people living with HIV admitted to Imam Khomeini Behavioral Disease Counseling Center, Tehran, Iran, during 2004-2018. Required data were obtained from the individuals' files. Kaplan Meier diagrams and Log-rank tests were used to assess the relationship between different factors and survival. In addition, Cox regression analysis was performed to determine the effective factors in HIV mortality. Data were analyzed using STATA software, version 14. RESULTS: The mean age of studied population was 43.2 ± 9.5 [years] and 77.3 % were male. Among the subjects, 3.2 % were infected with hepatitis B, 31.5 % with hepatitis C, and 13.9 % with Tuberculosis (TB). One, five, ten, and fifteen-year survival rates were 97.0 %, 93.0 %, 86.0 %, and 54.0 %, respectively. The mean survival time was 154.2 ± 0.9 months. Age more than 35, history of imprisonment, Unsafe sexual behavior, TB, and hepatitis C are independently associated with death in people living with HIV (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The survival of people living with HIV in the present study was in the favorable range compared to previous studies. However, co-infection with hepatitis C was associated with reduced survival of the subjects in this study. Therefore, it is suggested to detect and then prevent and control HCV co-infection to increase the survival of subjects.

Boletim epidemiológico: perfil epidemiológico de hepatites b e c no Estado de Goiás, 2019 a 2023 / Epidemiological bulletin: epidemiological profile of hepatitis b and c in the state of Goiás, 2019 to 2023

Boletim com o objetivo de demonstrar o perfil epidemiológico dos casos que foram notificados entre 2019 a 2023, apresentando os indicadores epidemiológicos e operacionais de relevância do estado, para fins de tomada de decisão em relação às ações do Programa para Eliminação das Hepatites Virais até 2030. Trata-se de uma análise de dados secundários obtidos do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificações (SINAN), referentes aos casos diagnosticados e notificados, por município de residência entre 2019 e 2023 pelos serviços de saúde do Estado de Goiás

Bulletin with the aim of demonstrating the epidemiological profile of cases that were reported between 2019 and 2023, presenting epidemiological and operational indicators of relevance to the state, for decision-making purposes in relation to the actions of the Program for the Elimination of Viral Hepatitis by 2030. This is an analysis of secondary data obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN), referring to cases diagnosed and notified, by municipality of residence between 2019 and 2023 by the health services of the State of Goiás

Global mortality of chronic liver diseases attributable to Hepatitis B virus and Hepatitis C virus infections from 1990 to 2019 and projections to 2030.

BACKGROUND: The burden of chronic liver disease (CLD) deaths attributable to the hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) remains unknown. Further research is required to elucidate the extent of this burden in the eventual elimination of these diseases. METHODS: Data on liver cancer, cirrhosis, and other CLD among 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019 was extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) published in 2019. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the temporal trend and predict the disease burden by 2030. RESULTS: The number of HCV-related CLD deaths surpassed that of CLD deaths caused by HBV in 2019 (536833 deaths versus 523003 deaths) and is expected to be maintained until 2030 (689124 deaths versus 628824 deaths). East Asia had the highest burden of chronic HBV and HCV infections during the study period. In 2019, the largest age-standardized death rates (ASDR) of CLD deaths caused by HBV and HCV were mainly observed in Western Sub-Saharan Africa (18.75%) and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa (16.42%), respectively. South Asia and East Asia are predicted to have the highest number of CLD deaths related to HCV and HBV by 2030. Eastern Europe and South Asia show the largest expected increase in disease burden caused by HCV or HBV between 2019 and 2030. No GBD region is projected to achieve the WHO target of a 65% reduction in mortality from chronic HBV and HCV infections by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Although the mortality of CLD caused by HBV and HCV decreased in the last three decades (from 1990 to 2019), the number of deaths will continue to increase until 2030. Therefore, governments and international organizations need to strengthen the effectiveness of vaccines, screening, and treatment, especially in potential emerging hotspot regions.

Improved outcomes of liver resection for hepatitis C-related hepatocellular carcinoma after the introduction of direct-acting antiviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Assess impact of direct-acting antivirals introduction on outcomes after liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma. METHODS: 391 patients (1991-2021) treated with resection for hepatocellular carcinoma on Hepatitis C background were divided according to receiving Hepatitis C treatment, treatment type, achievement of sustained virological response (SVR), time of resection pre- (Era 1, 1991-2011) and post-direct acting antivirals introduction (Era 2, 2012-2021). Survival was estimated with Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox regression analysis performed to identify survival predictors. RESULTS: Majority of patients had single lesion (67.8%), diameter >2 cm in 60.6%, no evidence of macroscopic vascular invasion on imaging. Pathology showed vascular invasion in 69.6% of patients, 76.5% microvascular. Recurrence developed in 247 patients (63.2%). 194 patients (49.6%) achieved SVR. Overall survival at 1-, 3-, 5-years was 94.6%, 85.7%, 78.8% for patients who achieved SVR, 80.1%, 48.1%, 29.9% in those who did not (p < 0.001). 220 patients (56.3%) were in Era 1, 171 (43.7%) in Era 2. Survival at 1-, 3-, 5-years was 76.1%, 49%, 36% in Era 1, 94.5%, 82.5%, 70.3% in Era 2 (p < 0.001). SVR was an independent predictor of survival on multiple Cox Regression analysis. CONCLUSION: While many aspects of HCC management have evolved, SVR following direct-acting antivirals independently improves HCC resection outcomes.

Trends in Mortality Related to Hepatitis B and C from 1990 to 2019 in the Western Pacific Region.

Background/Aims: : This study aimed to analyze the trends in mortality attributed to hepatitis B and C around the Western Pacific region from 1990 to 2019. Methods: : We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study for a systematic analysis. The deaths related to hepatitis B and C were analyzed by age, sex, year, risk factors, geographical location, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Results: : From 1990 to 2019, the annual total deaths from hepatitis B decreased from 0.266 to 0.210 million and those from hepatitis C increased from 0.119 to 0.142 million in the Western Pacific region. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of hepatitis B and C decreased by 63.5% and 48.0%, respectively. The declines in the ASMR related to hepatitis B and C were only detected in 12 and two Western Pacific countries, respectively. As the major risk factors, the contribution of alcohol use to hepatitis B deaths was 52% and drug use to hepatitis C was 80%. In males and females, the ASMR attributed to hepatitis B decreased by 61% and 71%, respectively, and the ASMR attributed to hepatitis C decreased by 43% and 55%, respectively. The association between SDI and ASMRs suggested that hepatitis B and C, respectively, showed an overall decline and stable trends as the SDI improved in the Western Pacific region. Conclusions: : Although the mortality rate from hepatitis B and C decreased from 1990 to 2019, notable variation was observed among 27 Western Pacific countries. Efforts targeting hepatitis B and C prevention and treatment are still required in this region, especially for the pandemic countries.

Patients undergoing liver resection for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease-related hepatocellular carcinoma and those for viral hepatitis-related hepatocellular carcinoma have similar survival outcomes.

Numerous studies have compared outcomes of liver resection (LR) of patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to those of patients with non-NAFLD-related HCC. However, results have been inconsistent. We aim to clarify this issue. We enrolled 801 patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related HCC, 433 patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related HCC, and 128 patients with NAFLD-related HCC undergoing LR. Overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) of patients with different etiologies of chronic liver disease was compared using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and log-rank test after propensity score matching (PSM). After PSM, 83 patients remained in each group. The groups did not differ significantly in age, sex, the proportion of patients with pathological American Joint Committee on Cancer stage 1, tumor size > 50 mm, receipt of major resection, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥ 20 ng/ml, presence of cirrhosis, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification. The five-year OS of patients with HBV-, HCV-, and NAFLD-related HCC was 78%, 75%, and 78%, respectively (p = 0.789). The five-year DFS of the HBV, HCV, and NAFLD groups was 60%, 45%, and 54%, respectively (p = 0.159). Perioperative morbidity was noted in 17 (20.5%) in the HBV group, 22 (26.5%) in the HCV group, and 15 (18.1%) in the NAFLD group (p = 0.398). The five-year OS, DFS, and perioperative morbidity of patients undergoing LR for NAFLD-related HCC and those for viral hepatitis-related HCC was similar.

The Lower Survival in Patients With Alcoholism and Hepatitis C Continues in the DAA Era.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol liver disease (ALD) may coexist with hepatitis C (HCV) in many transplant recipients (alcoholic cirrhosis with hepatitis C [AHC]). Our objective was to determine whether there were differences in postliver transplantation outcomes of patients with AHC when compared with those with alcoholic cirrhosis (AC) and/or alcoholic hepatitis (AH). METHODS: Using UNOS explant data sets (2016-2020), the survival probabilities of AC, AH, and AHC were compared by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Cox proportional-hazard regression analysis was used to determine outcomes after adjusting for disease confounders. The outcomes were also compared with predirect antiviral agent (DAA) period. RESULTS: During study period, 8369 biopsy-proven ALD liver transplant recipients were identified. Of those, 647 had AHC (HCV + alcohol), 353 had AH, and 7369 had AC. MELD-Na score (28.7 ± 9.5 versus 23.8 ± 10.7; P < 0.001) and presence of ACLF-3 (19% versus 11%; P < 0.001) were higher in AC + AH as compared with AHC. AHC and AC+AH has similar adjusted mortality at 1-y, but 3-y (hazard ratios, 1.76; 95% confidence intervals, 1.32-2.35; P < 0.0001) and 5-y (hazard ratios, 1.64; 95% confidence intervals, 1.24-2.15; P = 0.0004) mortality rates were higher in AHC. Survival improved in the DAA era (2016-2020) compared with 2009 to 2013 in AHC, but remained worse in AHC group versus AC and/or AH. Malignancy-related mortality was higher in AHC (15% versus 9.3% in AC) in the DAA era. CONCLUSIONS: AHC was associated with lower 3- and 5-y post-LT survival as compared with ALD without HCV and the worse outcomes in AHC group continued in the DAA era.

Long-term follow-up of HCV-infected patients with end-stage chronic kidney disease after sustained virological response with direct-acting antiviral therapy / Seguimiento a largo plazo de pacientes infectados por el virus de la hepatitis C con insuficiencia renal crónica terminal tras una respuesta virológica sostenida con tratamiento antiviral de acción directa

Background and aim: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and hepatitis C infection can be safely and effectively treated with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). However, there is scarce data on the long-term impact of hepatitis C cure on CKD. The aim of this study was to assess the long-term mortality, morbidity and hepatic/renal function outcomes in a cohort of HCV-infected individuals with CKD treated with DAAs. Methods: 135 HCV patients with CKD stage 3b-5 who received ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir±dasabuvir in a multicenter study were evaluated for long-term hepatic and renal outcomes and their associated mortality. Results: 125 patients achieved SVR and 66 were included. Prior to SVR, 53 were under renal replacement therapy (RRT) and 25 (37.8%) had liver cirrhosis. After a follow-up of 4.5 years, 25 (38%) required kidney transplantation but none combined liver–kidney. No changes in renal function were observed among the 51 patients who did not receive renal transplant although eGFR values improved in those with baseline CKD stage 3b-4. Three (5.6%) subjects were weaned from RRT. Eighteen (27.3%) patients died, mostly from cardiovascular events; 2 developed liver decompensation and 1 hepatocellular carcinoma. No HCV reinfection was observed. Conclusions: Long-term mortality remained high among end-stage CKD patients despite HCV cure. Overall, no improvement in renal function was observed and a high proportion of patients required kidney transplantation. However, in CKD stage 3b-4 HCV cure may play a positive role in renal function. (AU)

Introducción y objetivo: Los pacientes con insuficiencia renal crónica (IRC) e infección por el virus de la hepatitis C (VHC) pueden ser tratados de forma efectiva y segura con antivirales de acción directa (AAD). El objetivo de este estudio fue evaluar la mortalidad y la evolución de la función renal y hepática a largo plazo en una cohorte de pacientes con infección por VHC e IRC tratados con AAD. Métodos: Se analizó la evolución de la función hepática y renal, así como la mortalidad en 135 pacientes con infección por VHC e IRC estadio 3b-5 que recibieron ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir±dasabuvir en un estudio multicéntrico. Resultados: Ciento veinticinco pacientes se curaron (RVS), y 66 de ellos fueron incluidos. Antes de RVS, 53 estaban bajo terapia renal sustitutiva (TRS) y 25 (37,8%) tenían cirrosis hepática. Tras un seguimiento medio de 4,5 años, 25 (38%) requirieron trasplante renal, pero ninguno combinado renal-hepático. No se observaron cambios en la función renal entre aquellos 51 pacientes que no recibieron trasplante renal a pesar de que los valores de eFGR mejoraron en aquellos pacientes con IRC estadio 3b-4 de base. Tres (5,6%) pacientes pudieron dejar la TRS. Dieciocho (27,3%) pacientes fallecieron, principalmente por eventos cardiovasculares, 2 presentaron descompensación hepática y uno carcinoma hepatocelular. No se observó ninguna reinfección por VHC. Conclusiones: La mortalidad a largo-plazo fue alta. Globalmente no se objetivó una mejora en la función renal. A pesar de ello, en estadios 3b-4, la curación del VHC podría tener un papel positivo en la función renal. (AU)

The Novel Finding of Dynamic Change in eGFR Up to One Year after End of Treatment in HCV-Infected Patients Receiving Sofosbuvir and Velpatasvir.

Background: The results of long-term renal evolution in HCV-infected patients using sofosbuvir and velpatasvir (SOF/VEL), with or without ribavirin (RBV), are lacking. Aims: We evaluated the renal safety for HCV-infected patients receiving SOF/VEL. Methods: Between 1 June 2019 and 6 July 2020, we included 594 HCV-infected patients receiving SOF/VEL +/- RBV for 12 weeks in Taiwan. Viral eradication rate (defined by sustained virological response at week 12 post-treatment; SVR12) and changes to renal function were considered. Results: SVR12 was achieved in 99.3% (590/594) upon per-protocol analysis. Patients saw improved hepatobiliary function and fibrosis after the start of SOF/VEL therapy. For renal function, those with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥ 60 (mL/min/1.73 m2) experienced transient on-treatment reduction in renal function that improved upon ending treatment, but recurrent eGFR degradation during one-year follow-up. The use of RBV (OR = 5.200, 95% CI: 1.983-13.634, p = 0.001) was a significant risk factor at SVR24, while diabetes mellitus (OR = 2.765, 95% CI: 1.104-6.922, p = 0.030) and the use of RBV (OR = 3.143, 95% CI: 1.047-9.435, p = 0.041) were identified as significant risk factors of worsening renal function at SVR48. SOF/VEL did not worsen renal function among those with stage 4-5 chronic kidney disease (CKD) who were not receiving dialysis. Conclusions: A trend of decline in eGFR at 1 year after SOF/VEL treatment was observed among diabetic patients with baseline eGFR ≥ 60 (mL/min/1.73 m2) and concomitant use of RBV. The close monitoring of renal function is warranted. Further study should be conducted in order to weigh the risks and benefit of RBV.

Associations Between Alcohol Use and Liver-Related Outcomes in a Large National Cohort of Patients With Cirrhosis.

Alcohol use can cause hepatic necroinflammation and worsening portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to evaluate the associations between degree of alcohol use and clinical liver-related outcomes according to etiology of cirrhosis. In this retrospective cohort analysis, 44,349 U.S. veterans with cirrhosis from alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, or nonalcoholic fatty liver disease were identified who completed the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test Consumption questionnaire in 2012. Based on this score, level of alcohol use was categorized as none, low level, or unhealthy. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess for associations between alcohol use and mortality, cirrhosis decompensation (new ascites, encephalopathy, or variceal bleeding), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). At baseline, 36.4% of patients endorsed alcohol use and 17.1% had unhealthy alcohol use. During a mean 4.9 years of follow-up, 25,806 (57.9%) patients died, 9,409 (21.4%) developed a new decompensation, and 4,733 (11.1%) developed HCC. In patients with ALD-cirrhosis and HCV-cirrhosis, unhealthy alcohol use, compared with no alcohol use, was associated with higher risks of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07-1.19 and aHR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.08-1.20, respectively) and decompensation (aHR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.07-1.30 and aHR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.00-1.16, respectively). Alcohol use was not associated with HCC, regardless of cirrhosis etiology. Conclusion: Unhealthy alcohol use was common in patients with cirrhosis and was associated with higher risks of mortality and cirrhosis decompensation in patients with HCV-cirrhosis and ALD-cirrhosis. Therefore, health care providers should make every effort to help patients achieve abstinence. The lack of association between alcohol use and HCC merits further investigation.

Health and economic benefits of achieving hepatitis C virus elimination in Pakistan: A modelling study and economic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Modelling suggests that achieving the WHO incidence target for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Pakistan could cost US$3.87 billion over 2018 to 2030. However, the economic benefits from integrating services or improving productivity were not included. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We adapt a HCV transmission model for Pakistan to estimate the impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of achieving HCV elimination (reducing annual HCV incidence by 80% by 2030) with stand-alone service delivery, or partially integrating one-third of initial HCV testing into existing healthcare services. We estimate the net economic benefits by comparing the required investment in screening, treatment, and healthcare management to the economic productivity gains from reduced HCV-attributable absenteeism, presenteeism, and premature deaths. We also calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for HCV elimination versus maintaining current levels of HCV treatment. This is compared to an opportunity cost-based willingness-to-pay threshold for Pakistan (US$148 to US$198/DALY). Compared to existing levels of treatment, scaling up screening and treatment to achieve HCV elimination in Pakistan averts 5.57 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.80 to 8.22) million DALYs and 333,000 (219,000 to 509,000) HCV-related deaths over 2018 to 2030. If HCV testing is partially integrated, this scale-up requires an investment of US$1.45 (1.32 to 1.60) billion but will result in US$1.30 (0.94 to 1.72) billion in improved economic productivity over 2018 to 2030. This elimination strategy is highly cost-effective (ICER = US$29 per DALY averted) by 2030, with it becoming cost-saving by 2031 and having a net economic benefit of US$9.10 (95% UI 6.54 to 11.99) billion by 2050. Limitations include uncertainty around what level of integration is possible within existing primary healthcare services as well as a lack of Pakistan-specific data on disease-related healthcare management costs or productivity losses due to HCV. CONCLUSIONS: Investment in HCV elimination can bring about substantial societal health and economic benefits for Pakistan.

Frailty Status Predicts New Long-term Care Insurance Certification in Hepatitis C Patients Receiving Antiviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies for patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection deliver higher cure rates and lower frequencies of adverse events than existing therapies, though DAA treatment costs $45,000-64,000 in Japan. The prognosis of patients who require new long-term care insurance (LTCI) certification is inferior to that of patients who do not. Here, we clarify the factors associated with new LTCI certification in elderly patients with HCV infection who undergo DAA therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively surveyed 53 patients aged ≥70 years who were treated with DAAs, and evaluated the factors associated with new LTCI certification. RESULTS: Of 53 patients, 10 required new LTCI certification. Age ≥85 years and a modified Japanese Cardiovascular Health Study index ≥2 were independently associated with new LTCI certification. CONCLUSION: In elderly HCV patients, poor frailty status strongly predicted new LTCI certification after DAA therapy.

Hepatitis C virus infection and risk of liver-related and non-liver-related deaths: a population-based cohort study in Naples, southern Italy.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection represents a global health issue with severe implications on morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of HCV infection on all-cause, liver-related, and non-liver-related mortality in a population living in an area with a high prevalence of HCV infection before the advent of Direct-Acting Antiviral (DAA) therapies, and to identify factors associated with cause-specific mortality among HCV-infected individuals. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study on 4492 individuals enrolled between 2003 and 2006 in a population-based seroprevalence survey on viral hepatitis infections in the province of Naples, southern Italy. Study participants provided serum for antibodies to HCV (anti-HCV) and HCV RNA testing. Information on vital status to December 2017 and cause of death were retrieved through record-linkage with the mortality database. Hazard ratios (HRs) for cause-specific mortality and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Fine-Grey regression models. RESULTS: Out of 626 deceased people, 20 (3.2%) died from non-natural causes, 56 (8.9%) from liver-related conditions, 550 (87.9%) from non-liver-related causes. Anti-HCV positive people were at higher risk of death from all causes (HR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.12-1.70) and liver-related causes (HR = 5.90, 95% CI: 3.00-11.59) than anti-HCV negative ones. Individuals with chronic HCV infection reported an elevated risk of death due to liver-related conditions (HR = 6.61, 95% CI: 3.29-13.27) and to any cause (HR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.18-1.94). The death risk of anti-HCV seropositive people with negative HCV RNA was similar to that of anti-HCV seronegative ones. Among anti-HCV positive people, liver-related mortality was associated with a high FIB-4 index score (HR = 39.96, 95% CI: 4.73-337.54). CONCLUSIONS: These findings show the detrimental impact of HCV infection on all-cause mortality and, particularly, liver-related mortality. This effect emerged among individuals with chronic infection while those with cleared infection had the same risk of uninfected ones. These results underline the need to identify through screening all people with chronic HCV infection notably in areas with a high prevalence of HCV infection, and promptly provide them with DAAs treatment to achieve progressive HCV elimination and reduce HCV-related mortality.

Mortality among amphetamine users with hepatitis C virus infection: A nationwide study.

AIMS: To investigate liver-related and all-cause mortality among amphetamine users with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and compare this with opioid users with HCV infection and the uninfected general population. METHODS: In this national register study of mortality in persons notified with HCV infection 1990-2015 and a substance-related diagnosis in Sweden, amphetamine users (n = 6,509) were compared with opioid users (n = 5,739) and a matched comparison group without HCV infection/substance use (n = 152,086). RESULTS: Amphetamine users were observed for 91,000 years and 30.1% deceased. Crude liver-related mortality was 1.8 times higher in amphetamine users than opioid users (crude mortality rate ratio 1.78, 95% CI 1.45-2.19), but there was no significant difference when adjusting for age and other defined risk factors. An alcohol-related diagnosis was associated with liver-related death and was more common among amphetamine users. Crude and adjusted liver-related mortality was 39.4 and 5.8 times higher, respectively, compared with the uninfected group. All-cause mortality was lower than in opioid users (adjusted mortality rate ratio 0.78, 95% CI 0.73-0.84), but high compared with the uninfected group. External causes of death dominated in younger ages whereas liver-related death was more common among older individuals. CONCLUSIONS: This national register study presents a higher crude risk of liver-related death among HCV-infected amphetamine users compared with opioid users or the uninfected general population. The higher risk of liver-related death compared with opioid users may be explained by lower competing death risk and higher alcohol consumption. Treatment of HCV infection and alcohol use disorders are needed to reduce the high liver-related mortality.

Impact of direct-acting antivirals for HCV on mortality in a large population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We evaluated the effect of direct-acting antiviral (DAA)-induced sustained virologic response (SVR) on all-cause, liver- and drug-related mortality in a population-based cohort in British Columbia, Canada. METHODS: We used data from the British Columbia Hepatitis Testers Cohort, which includes people tested for HCV since 1990, linked with data on medical visits, hospitalizations, prescription drugs and mortality. We followed people who received DAAs and people who did not receive any HCV treatment to death or December 31, 2019. We used inverse probability of treatment weighting to balance the baseline profile of treated and untreated individuals and performed multivariable proportional hazard modelling to assess the effect of DAAs on mortality. RESULTS: Our cohort comprised 10,851 people treated with DAAs (SVR 10,426 [96%], no-SVR: 425) and 10,851 matched untreated individuals. Median follow-up time was 2.2 years (IQR 1.3-3.6; maximum 6.2). The all-cause mortality rate was 19.5/1,000 person-years (PY) among the SVR group (deaths = 552), 86.5/1,000 PY among the no-SVR group (deaths = 96), and 99.2/1,000 PY among the untreated group (deaths = 2,133). In the multivariable model, SVR was associated with significant reduction in all-cause (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.19; 95% CI 0.17-0.21), liver- (adjusted subdistribution HR [asHR] 0.22, 95% CI 0.18-0.27) and drug-related mortality (asHR 0.26, 95% CI 0.21-0.32) compared to no-treatment. Older age and cirrhosis were associated with higher risk of liver-related mortality while younger age, injection drug use (IDU), problematic alcohol use and HIV/HBV co-infections were associated with a higher risk of drug-related mortality. CONCLUSIONS: DAA treatment is associated with a substantial reduction in all-cause, liver- and drug-related mortality. The association of IDU and related syndemic factors with a higher risk of drug-related mortality calls for an integrated social support, addiction, and HCV care approach among people who inject drugs. LAY SUMMARY: We assessed the effect of treatment of hepatitis C virus infection with direct-acting antiviral drugs on deaths from all causes, liver disease and drug use. We found that treatment with direct-acting antiviral drugs is associated with substantial lowering in risk of death from all causes, liver disease and drug use among people with hepatitis C virus infection.

The Changing Epidemiology of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in the United States During the Years 2010 to 2018.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality throughout the world, leading to serious health problems among those who are chronically infected. Since 1992, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been collecting data on the incidence of HCV infection in the United States. In 2018, more than 50 000 individuals were estimated to have acute HCV infection.The most recently reported data on the prevalence of infection indicate that approximately 2.4 million people are living with hepatitis C in the United States. Transmission of HCV occurs predominantly through sharing contaminated equipment for injecting drugs.Two major events have had a significant impact on the incidence and prevalence of hepatitis C in the past few decades: the US opioid crisis and the discovery of curative treatments for HCV infection. To better understand the impact of these events, we examine reported trends in the incidence and prevalence of infection.

Modelling the intervention effect of opioid agonist treatment on multiple mortality outcomes in people who inject drugs: a three-setting analysis.

BACKGROUND: Opioid agonist treatment (OAT) reduces many of the harms associated with opioid dependence. We use mathematical modelling to comprehensively evaluate the overall health benefits of OAT in people who inject drugs in Perry County (KY, USA), Kyiv (Ukraine), and Tehran (Iran). METHODS: We developed a dynamic model of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission, incarceration, and mortality through overdose, injury, suicide, disease-related and other causes. The model was calibrated to site-specific data using Bayesian methods. We evaluated preventable drug-related deaths (deaths due to HIV, HCV, overdose, suicide, or injury) averted over 2020-40 for four scenarios, added incrementally, compared with a scenario without OAT: existing OAT coverage (setting-dependent; community 4-11%; prison 0-40%); scaling up community OAT to 40% coverage; increasing average OAT duration from 4-14 months to 2 years; and scaling up prison-based OAT. OUTCOMES: Drug-related harms contributed differentially to mortality across settings: overdose contributed 27-47% (range of median projections) of preventable drug-related deaths over 2020-40, suicide 6-17%, injury 3-17%, HIV 0-59%, and HCV 2-18%. Existing OAT coverage in Tehran (31%) could have a substantial effect, averting 13% of preventable drug-related deaths, but will have negligible effect (averting <2% of preventable drug-related deaths) in Kyiv and Perry County due to low OAT coverage (<4%). Scaling up community OAT to 40% could avert 12-24% of preventable drug-related deaths, including 13-22% of overdose deaths, with greater effect in settings with significant HIV mortality (Tehran and Kyiv). Improving OAT retention and providing prison-based OAT would have a significant additional effect, averting 27-51% of preventable drug-related deaths. INTERPRETATION: OAT can substantially reduce drug-related harms, particularly in settings with HIV epidemics in people who inject drugs. Maximising these effects requires research and investment into achieving higher coverage and provision and longer retention of OAT in prisons and the community. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research, US National Institute on Drug Abuse.

County-Level Variation in Hepatitis C Virus Mortality and Trends in the United States, 2005-2017.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Since 2013, the national hepatitis C virus (HCV) death rate has steadily declined, but this decline has not been quantified or described on a local level. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We estimated county-level HCV death rates and assessed trends in HCV mortality from 2005 to 2013 and from 2013 to 2017. We used mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and used a Bayesian multivariate space-time conditional autoregressive model to estimate age-standardized HCV death rates from 2005 through 2017 for 3,115 U.S. counties. Additionally, we estimated county-level, age-standardized rates for persons <40 and 40+ years of age. We used log-linear regression models to estimate the average annual percent change in HCV mortality during periods of interest and compared county-level trends with national trends. Nationally, the age-adjusted HCV death rate peaked in 2013 at 5.20 HCV deaths per 100,000 persons (95% credible interval [CI], 5.12, 5.26) before decreasing to 4.34 per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 4.28, 4.41) in 2017 (average annual percent change = -4.69; 95% CI, -5.01, -4.33). County-level rates revealed heterogeneity in HCV mortality (2017 median rate = 3.6; interdecile range, 2.19, 6.77), with the highest rates being concentrated in the West, Southwest, Appalachia, and northern Florida. Between 2013 and 2017, HCV mortality decreased in 80.0% (n = 2,274) of all U.S. counties with a reliable trend estimate, with 25.8% (n = 803) of all counties experiencing a decrease larger than the national decline. CONCLUSIONS: Although many counties have experienced a shift in HCV mortality trends since 2013, the magnitude and composition of that shift have varied by place. These data provide a better understanding of geographic differences in HCV mortality and can be used by local jurisdictions to evaluate HCV mortality in their areas relative to surrounding areas and the nation.

Impact of COVID-19 on global HCV elimination efforts.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has placed a significant strain on national healthcare systems at a critical moment in the context of hepatitis elimination. Mathematical models can be used to evaluate the possible impact of programmatic delays on hepatitis disease burden. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the incremental change in HCV liver-related deaths and liver cancer, following a 3-month, 6-month, or 1-year hiatus in hepatitis elimination programs. METHODS: Previously developed models were adapted for 110 countries to include a status quo or 'no delay' scenario and a '1-year delay' scenario assuming significant disruption in interventions (screening, diagnosis, and treatment) in the year 2020. Annual country-level model outcomes were extracted, and weighted averages were used to calculate regional (WHO and World Bank Income Group) and global estimates from 2020 to 2030. The incremental annual change in outcomes was calculated by subtracting the 'no-delay' estimates from the '1-year delay' estimates. RESULTS: The '1-year delay' scenario resulted in 44,800 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 43,800-49,300) excess hepatocellular carcinoma cases and 72,300 (95% UI: 70,600-79,400) excess liver-related deaths, relative to the 'no-delay' scenario globally, from 2020 to 2030. Most missed treatments would be in lower-middle income countries, whereas most excess hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related deaths would be among high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of COVID-19 extends beyond the direct morbidity and mortality associated with exposure and infection. To mitigate the impact on viral hepatitis programming and reduce excess mortality from delayed treatment, policy makers should prioritize hepatitis programs as soon as it becomes safe to do so. LAY SUMMARY: COVID-19 has resulted in many hepatitis elimination programs slowing or stopping altogether. A 1-year delay in hepatitis diagnosis and treatment could result in an additional 44,800 liver cancers and 72,300 deaths from HCV globally by 2030. Countries have committed to hepatitis elimination by 2030, so attention should shift back to hepatitis programming as soon as it becomes appropriate to do so.

What is required for achieving hepatitis C virus elimination in Singapore? A modeling study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The vast majority of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Singapore is among those with a history of injecting drug use (IDU), yet harm reduction is not available and what is required to achieve the World Health Organization (WHO) HCV elimination targets (80% incidence reduction and 65% mortality reduction by 2030) is unknown. We model the intervention scale-up required to achieve WHO targets in Singapore. METHODS: A dynamic model of HCV transmission and progression among those with a history of IDU was calibrated to Singapore, a setting with declining IDU and no harm reduction (~11 000 people with IDU history in 2017 and 45% HCV seropositive). We projected HCV treatment scale-up from 2019 required to achieve WHO targets with varying prioritization scenarios, with/without opiate substitution therapy scale-up (to 40% among people who inject drugs [PWID]). RESULTS: We estimated 3855 (95% confidence interval: 2635-5446) chronically HCV-infected individuals with a history of IDU and 148 (87-284) incident HCV cases in Singapore in 2019. Reaching the HCV incidence target requires 272 (187-384) treatments in 2019, totaling 2444 (1683-3452) across 2019-2030. By prioritizing PWID or PWID and cirrhotics, 60% or 30% fewer treatments are required, respectively, whereas the target cannot be achieved with cirrhosis prioritization. Opiate substitution therapy scale-up reduces treatments required by 21-24%. Achieving both WHO targets requires treating 631 (359-1047) in 2019, totaling 3816 (2664-5423) across 2019-2030. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatitis C virus elimination is achievable in Singapore but even with declining IDU requires immediate treatment scale-up among PWID. Harm reduction provision reduces treatments required and provides additional benefits.